The future of energy generation and storage

[basilio]

A shopping centre in Perth has plastered much of its roof in solar panels,



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-...shopping-centre-wa-largest/7217984?section=wa

The implied install cost per kW from the above numbers is $1923.

Annual generation (based on 2,500kWh/1.5kW) would be 520,000kWh. A bit less, say, 480,000kWh may be more realistic given varying panel orientation. $20,000 per month of savings from grid electricity equates to $240,000 per annum or $0.50/kWh. If the centre uses all it generates (no feed in), the implication is the grid cost of electricity to the centre is therefore $0.50/kWh which is much higher than the WA residential A1 (flat) rate. The article doesn't indicate whether or not there's an element of battery storage as part of the system.

Doesn't quite make sense does it ? I think it's great that the centre has covered it's roof with solar panels and I'm sure they will get a good return. But returning $240k a year from an initial cost of $600k seems remarkable in fact incredible.

The salient words were "would save" . Let's wait for the figures.

 

[Monkey C Doo]

Doesn't quite make sense does it ? I think it's great that the centre has covered it's roof with solar panels and I'm sure they will get a good return. But returning $240k a year from an initial cost of $600k seems remarkable in fact incredible.

The salient words were "would save" . Let's wait for the figures.

I'm a maths idiot - but here's what i came up with..

948 panels for 312kW, so each panel is roughly 330w (about right? big panels)

So a max output of 312kW X 8Hours max good sun per day
= 2496kWh per day
@ $0.31per kWh buy price = $773.76 per day
X365 = $282,422 per year. very roughly less losses etc say 15%

Not bad at all.

 

[drsmith]

Is $0.31/kWh what a commercial operation of that scale would pay for grid electricity in Perth ?

 

[Monkey C Doo]

Is $0.31/kWh what a commercial operation of that scale would pay for grid electricity in Perth ?

I would have thought they'd be paying around 0.15, but google says around 30 - 34c.
It seems parts of WA are in a regulated (price fixed) market.


http://www.finance.wa.gov.au/cms/Pu...overnment/Electricity/Electricity_prices.aspx

 

[drsmith]

30 - 34c won't do it.

2,500kWh per annum average per 1.5kw of generation capacity is about tops for an ideally placed fixed solar array in Perth and that yields $0.46/kWh for the return they are looking for from their system and that's a best case scenario in terms of using it all and feeding none into the grid.

One possibility is that the array may allow transfer from a plan with a high fixed daily cost (S1 or T1) to a plan without. Those fixed daily costs annualised are large and would in themselves account for the vast majority of the $240k return.

 

[basilio]

This is a very interesting analysis. My initial thinking is that the return is just too high to be real. However if it is somewhere in the ball park then the opportunities for a hundred other big retail power users to slash their costs is fantastic.

I can see how the input from solar power may allow a change from fixed costs to TOU tariff. The problem would be that there will be some days when cloudy skies/rain will reduce power input and that might trigger one off demand peaks.

After looking at the electricity prices in WA and thinking about the amount of sunlight available I think this analysis is lot closer to the mark than I first thought. Very impressive.

_____________________________________________________

Going back to the original story it does look as if the figures for self generated solar power are now compelling. You would be mad not to go in this direction on returns of 30% + a year. No brainer

 

[Monkey C Doo]

I'm just trying to work out the true cost of electricity - if (when) solar and batteries become the real deal, without artificial markets, carbon credits, government subsidies and all that bull****..

- So say a normal expected ROI for a solar setup is 10% ?
- Grid connection fees @ $600 per year ?? (these can't and won't go away)
- 4kWh per 1kW solar panel install ( average over australia??)
- storage batteries everywhere, pretty much attached to every install (more incentive to up the installed kW)
- open market for the sale of electricity
- market costs of 2% ??

Would all this mean Australia will become one of the cheapest places in the world for electricity instead of the most expensive?

Who owns the power lines and how much will they have to charge for monthly connection fees to make their business worthwhile ?? ( if selling power is no longer their core business)

Can solar be bumped up to 11,000 / 22,000 Volts for wider area distribution / big industry?

 

[SirRumpole]

Tasmanian energy crisis: Hydro Tasmania in uncharted territory as dam levels continue to drop

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-07/hydro-tasmania-in-uncharted-territory/7227494

 

[Smurf1976]

On holidays at the moment but will post an update on the situation in Tas shortly. In short though, it's all going so horribly wrong.

I've come up with a solution though. Forget rain dances, gas turbines, diesel generators and trying to find cable faults. My solution is ethanol, or E85 to be precise.

Now, you might be thinking that running a generator on E85 would be a rather inefficient way to generate electricity and on that point you'd be right. Thankfully Smurf's plan doesn't involve any generators.

Instead, what you do is put the fuel in cars and conduct a car race on a Sunday afternoon. Well, you try to have a race and then the rain just belts down and completely soaks everything from the track to the spectators and stops the race. This plan worked brilliantly in Adelaide 2 days ago and suffice to say nothing was dry. Shirt, shorts and even shoes full of water. Heck, for that matter I ended up with a wallet full of water too - just as well money is plastic these days rather than paper.

So on that basis I'm proposing that we hold a car race at Great Lake since that seems to be an effective way to bring thunder, lightning and rain.

Humour? Well I'm no comedian but I may as well try a few jokes since I'm all too aware just how bad the situation is. It's not good.

 

[drsmith]

Instead, what you do is put the fuel in cars and conduct a car race on a Sunday afternoon. Well, you try to have a race and then the rain just belts down and completely soaks everything from the track to the spectators and stops the race. This plan worked brilliantly in Adelaide 2 days ago and suffice to say nothing was dry. Shirt, shorts and even shoes full of water. Heck, for that matter I ended up with a wallet full of water too - just as well money is plastic these days rather than paper.

So on that basis I'm proposing that we hold a car race at Great Lake since that seems to be an effective way to bring thunder, lightning and rain.

A recreation of Bathurst 92 might be better again in relation to the above.

Avoid the podium presentation though if you want to keep it civil.

 

[basilio]

Humour? Well I'm no comedian but I may as well try a few jokes since I'm all too aware just how bad the situation is. It's not good. Smurf 1976

It looks look an absolute train wreck to me. I'm not an engineer but what I do know about electricity generation suggests that Tasmania will be having critical power cuts that will virtually close down the State in a very short time.

As I'm seeing it

1) They are just starting up the diesal plants. How long will this take and how much can they supply ?
2) The alternative gas powered plant has now been delayed for another 3 weeks
3) The Hydro supply is just about spent with the risk of very serious environmental damage occurring if the dam levels fall any further.

How accurate is that summation Smurf ? What are the options ? When should they happen ?

 

[Smurf1976]

We're not quite stuffed yet but there's no denying we're in a rather large spot of bother right now. Big time.

The combined cycle unit (gas) is supplying about 17% of normal load and has bee running perfectly since 20 January. That's the good bit.

The 3 x small and old open cycle units (gas) are undeniably struggling and having quite a few hiccups but supplying about 5.5% of the load on average. 4 of the 6 engines (2 engines per alternator) are running at present and the aim is to keep them going and get the other 2 running (which will take quite a while).

The 1 x modern open cycle unit (gas) broke a while ago and won't be back for another month after another delay in repairs (which is a manufacturer's warranty job). But if we had it running then it would be supplying a bit under 5% of the load.

The wind farms are running when it blows, doing their usual thing and at this time of year that's 10% of supply.

The above figures are all % of normal load for this time of year. Average load goes up by about 15 - 20% in Winter (and peak load goes up far more) due to heating so the relative contribution of the gas units and wind will decline as the weather cools.

Norske Skog (paper mill) is shutting one (of two) production lines down for a week as of about now. They have paper supply contracts to meet but have basically ceased selling anything beyond that in order to cut production and power demand.

Bell Bay Aluminium has slowed production to the minimum that keeps the whole plant running as such. Anything further and they'll need to actually shut down the pots and that's rather difficult and expensive so they'd rather avoid it.

Nyrstar (the zinc works) have cut load by about 14% until the end of Autumn. That's an outright production cut as such.

TEMCO have brought forward a maintenance shutdown of one furnace (of 4) which takes it offline for 3 months. They've now agreed to shut a second furnace for about 2 months.

So overall load is down about 14% at the moment but that's only a short term solution. Norske Skog needs to put the second line back into production next week to meet contracts for paper whilst TEMCO needs full power about the beginning of May. Bell Bay Aluminium and Nyrstar both still have their entire plants in operation, just slowed down, so don't have so much of a technical limit to when they resume full production but obviously there's an economic issue there.

Hydro storages are about 15.5% at the moment and continuing to decline. Of particular note is the environmental risk at Great Lake where any further water level decline will expose underwater vegetation. Also notable is Lake Gordon, now just over 8% full and still running hard in an effort to keep water in the rest of the system (basically sacrificing Gordon to keep everything else stable).

As for the diesels, well there's 24 now sitting at Catagunya power station and ready to run this week. By the end of March we should have 100 ready to run at various sites. Between all 100, they could supply about 8.6% of average Summer load (7.4% of average Winter load).

There's another 100 diesels currently being sourced with the intent to have them set up by the end of April. Same size and capacity for all of them.

In the longer term, plans are underway to get another gas turbine or two and install them at the Tamar Valley (Bell Bay) site where the present ones are located. These will take a while but should be ready by next Summer if required.

As for Basslink, well they've found the approximate location of the fault and are now going about repairs, expected to be complete by about the end of May.

I can't say too much on a public forum but you could read between the lines and draw a few conclusions from the above as to what's not being said...

Failure of the system as such is still highly unlikely as long as nothing else drastic goes wrong. All that gas and diesel isn't going to be cheap however and that's going to be the biggest problem.

The truth behind all this, if it ever comes out in full, will mark a significant turning point politically I expect (and I'm definitely not the only one thinking that way).

 

[moXJO]

Start putting the unemployed down there on treadmills to generate electricity. Should be enough of them to power Australia.

 

[SirRumpole]

Will the power co's pass on the additional cost of generation to the consumers, or will they cop the loss ?

 

[luutzu]

Will the power co's pass on the additional cost of generation to the consumers, or will they cop the loss ?

they'll pass on the cost, the add the cost to have to pass on that cost, then add a profit margin on top of those costs too. You do stuff like that when you and a couple other guy control the market.

 

[macca]

Start putting the unemployed down there on treadmills to generate electricity. Should be enough of them to power Australia.

That would be giving something back to the people who support them, can't have that, they are Entitled to the Dole, just ask them !

 

[Smurf1976]

Will the power co's pass on the additional cost of generation to the consumers, or will they cop the loss ?

The bigger impact will be to the state government generally. Schools, hospitals, their mates in Forestry, their "unsolicited proposal" mates in big business, consultants making a fortune telling mangers what their own staff already know, whatever. No more cash to throw around.

In recent times the basic game has been to rip as much money out of the power industry as possible. Directly handing government debt over to the power industry has been one method whilst extracting huge dividends has been the other. That is ultimately the reason we're in this mess right now.

That was never going to work in the long term. You can't keep paying dividends and leaving no cash to actually run the business with so it was always going to end badly. Suffice to say that idea didn't come from Hydro management but rather from the present state government itself.

If the full truth of all this comes to public attention then the next state election is going to be very interesting indeed.

 

[Smurf1976]

An update on progress with the diesel power stations in Tasmania.

Catagunya will have a capacity of 24 MW and is now being commissioned. See photo. This is located right next to the existing Catagunya hydro plant (48 MW).

Meadowbank will also be 24 MW and is well underway, to be ready about 18th of March. It's near the Meadowbank hydro station (40 MW).

George Town will be 21 MW and will be ready about 25th of March. Location is at George Town sub-station which despite the name is actually at nearby Bell Bay.

Port Latta will be about 24 MW and also underway with completion aiming for about 25 of March. It's next to the iron ore pelletising plant so located in a heavy industrial area although unlike the others there are a few residences nearby.

Another 7 MW to be put somewhere that's still being worked out but the intent is to have them ready for operation by the end of March.

For the next 100 MW of diesel generation, work has commenced at Tribute power station (hydro, 83 MW), Bell Bay power station and at TEMCO to install them although we don't yet have any of the equipment as such.

How much they will actually be run is uncertain but the message being given to residents near the Port Latta site is "24 hours per day for 3 months" as an indication. It's unlikely that anyone's going to complain since basically anyone living there works in the factory and that needs power otherwise they're out of a job. The other sites are well away from where anyone lives, being either Hydro sites or heavy industrial sites.

 

[Smurf1976]

The first diesels are now online at Catagunya. Only producing 9MW at the moment with the rest of the capacity still being commissioned. The other sites will follow shortly.

And for some more bad news, Basslink communications is now offline for the next 3 months while the cable is cut so that means slow internet. Oh joy.

http://www.iinet.net.au/status/4635151

So we're running out of power, the traffic in Hobart is suddenly stuffed and now so too is the internet. Welcome to the Tasmanian apocalypse of 2016.

Maybe this is all part of the government's plan to increase population? Convince everyone to turn the lights out, cripple their internet speeds and maybe they're thinking that we'll have a population boom about 9 months from now....

More seriously, maybe we need a government that actually listens to those who know about such things instead of having ministerial advisers telling the experts that they're not allowed to actually tell the Minister the truth and must instead come up with an alternative story. Yep, things are going just great with this sort of leadership.

 

[sptrawler]

The first diesels are now online at Catagunya. Only producing 9MW at the moment with the rest of the capacity still being commissioned. The other sites will follow shortly.

And for some more bad news, Basslink communications is now offline for the next 3 months while the cable is cut so that means slow internet. Oh joy.

http://www.iinet.net.au/status/4635151

So we're running out of power, the traffic in Hobart is suddenly stuffed and now so too is the internet. Welcome to the Tasmanian apocalypse of 2016.

Maybe this is all part of the government's plan to increase population? Convince everyone to turn the lights out, cripple their internet speeds and maybe they're thinking that we'll have a population boom about 9 months from now....

More seriously, maybe we need a government that actually listens to those who know about such things instead of having ministerial advisers telling the experts that they're not allowed to actually tell the Minister the truth and must instead come up with an alternative story. Yep, things are going just great with this sort of leadership.

Just arrived home from four weeks in Tassie, nobody seemed pre occupied with the problem.
Hobart traffic, about the same as a reasonable sized country town, but Hobart has much better roads.

Great spot Tassie, if the bass link stays open for long enough, the dams should fill.
Cloud seeding starting this week, one month early, it could be ice cream and lolly pops all round.