The future of energy generation and storage

[qldfrog]

Thanks Smurf, you have a great Christmas!

 

[basilio]

Thought Arnie hit a high note with his view on Renewable Energy/CC

I don’t give a **** if we agree about climate change.

Arnold Schwarzenegger·Monday, 7 December 2015
I see your questions.

Each and every time I post on my Facebook page or tweet about my crusade for a clean energy future, I see them.

There are always a few of you, asking why we should care about the temperature rising, or questioning the science of climate change.

I want you to know that I hear you. Even those of you who say renewable energy is a conspiracy. Even those who say climate change is a hoax. Even those of you who use four letter words.

I've heard all of your questions, and now I have three questions for you.

Let's put climate change aside for a minute. In fact, let's assume you're right.

First - do you believe it is acceptable that 7 million people die every year from pollution? That's more than murders, suicides, and car accidents - combined.

Every day, 19,000 people die from pollution from fossil fuels. Do you accept those deaths? Do you accept that children all over the world have to grow up breathing with inhalers?

Now, my second question: do you believe coal and oil will be the fuels of the future?

Besides the fact that fossil fuels destroy our lungs, everyone agrees that eventually they will run out. What's your plan then?

I, personally, want a plan. I don't want to be like the last horse and buggy salesman who was holding out as cars took over the roads. I don't want to be the last investor in Blockbuster as Netflix emerged. That's exactly what is going to happen to fossil fuels.

.....I have a final question, and it will take some imagination.
There are two doors. Behind Door Number One is a completely sealed room, with a regular, gasoline-fueled car. Behind Door Number Two is an identical, completely sealed room, with an electric car. Both engines are running full blast.

I want you to pick a door to open, and enter the room and shut the door behind you. You have to stay in the room you choose for one hour. You cannot turn off the engine. You do not get a gas mask.

I'm guessing you chose the Door Number Two, with the electric car, right? Door number one is a fatal choice - who would ever want to breathe those fumes?

https://www.facebook.com/notes/arno...-agree-about-climate-change/10153855713574658

 

[Smurf1976]

Oil also kills people in other ways too.

At least nobody starts wars over wind, solar, hydro or for that matter coal. It's oil and gas that cause that sort of trouble.

 

[SirRumpole]

Rooftop solar producing more energy than WA's biggest turbine

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-04/rooftop-solar-panels-bigger-than-biggest-turbine-wa/7066240

 

[Smurf1976]

The breakdown in Basslink is scary as we go into a long hot summer.

Basslink's owners are about to give some updates on progress. Not sure what will be released publicly so no comment there at this stage.

The three FT8's (gas turbines) at Bell Bay are now screaming away around the clock (as of yesterday). The larger (and more efficient) combined cycle unit will be put online at full capacity as soon as it's ready (next week).

 

[Smurf1976]

The update isn't good unfortunately. Basslink out of service until the 19th of March.

The lights should stay on but things just got a lot more "interesting" down here that's for sure.

 

[sptrawler]

The update isn't good unfortunately. Basslink out of service until the 19th of March.

The lights should stay on but things just got a lot more "interesting" down here that's for sure.

What's the prognosis smurph, cable failure? or failure of the outer protection?

 

[Smurf1976]

What's the prognosis smurph, cable failure? or failure of the outer protection?

Thus far they've got a ship organised and refitted it in NZ and manufactured some equipment plus getting about 100 people organised to do the job. They haven't actually lifted the cable yet, it's still sitting on the bottom of Bass Strait so nobody's sure what has actually happened. All they've got at this stage is an estimate of the location, that being 100km north of Tasmania and under about 80m of water at that point.

The lights are still on thus far, no supply interruptions have occurred apart from 4 industrial loads immediately after the failure, but nobody would deny that the generation system in Tas is incredibly strained at the moment since the intent prior to the failure was to be running Basslink at close to full load southbound at the present time.

 

[qldfrog]

stupid question but isn't summer the time you would expect tasmania stored hydro helpING victoria with its maxed out aircond?

 

[sptrawler]

Thus far they've got a ship organised and refitted it in NZ and manufactured some equipment plus getting about 100 people organised to do the job. They haven't actually lifted the cable yet, it's still sitting on the bottom of Bass Strait so nobody's sure what has actually happened. All they've got at this stage is an estimate of the location, that being 100km north of Tasmania and under about 80m of water at that point.

The lights are still on thus far, no supply interruptions have occurred apart from 4 industrial loads immediately after the failure, but nobody would deny that the generation system in Tas is incredibly strained at the moment since the intent prior to the failure was to be running Basslink at close to full load southbound at the present time.

What about the old Bell Bay plant? is it on care and maintenance or defunct?

 

[sptrawler]

stupid question but isn't summer the time you would expect tasmania stored hydro helpING victoria with its maxed out aircond?

I would have thought the hydro would be fat out in winter, when the dams are receiving rain, not in summer when the dams have no inflow.

 

[qldfrog]

I would have thought the hydro would be fat out in winter, when the dams are receiving rain, not in summer when the dams have no inflow.

That is if you see hydro as a generator only, not as a storage? probably depends on your aims;
in Europe dams are also used in flood mitigation and for irrigation: to allow water in summer for human/agricultural used; i would have thought the same here.
Create water flow and power emptying dams in summer.

 

[basilio]

No Basslink until March 19th... Industry will be starting crank up by now but we are still on school holidays. Probably a fair few people on holidays as well.

In two weeks schools back. All systems go. February heat waves. Full court press on power supplies in Victoria particularly when there is a heatwave. And no one has even talked about power plants at Loy Yang going for service. I wonder what back up systems are being devised to forestall this very predictable problem?

 

[Smurf1976]

stupid question but isn't summer the time you would expect tasmania stored hydro helpING victoria with its maxed out aircond?

Vic has its peak demand in Summer certainly, but 99% of the time it's not at peak and total consumption is actually higher in Winter, with a more consistent demand each day, than it is in Summer despite the occasional huge spike.

Tas demand is absolutely higher in Winter by all measures and at all times. Middle of the night in Winter is about the same system load as the Summer "peak" which in Tas isn't really a peak at all.

From a physical production perspective, the intent was to be not generating much base load at all this Summer but still running the hydro system hard when those occasional price spikes occur in Vic. So whilst Basslink would have operated at full capacity northbound on occasion, the overall net flow would be strongly southbound.

Without Basslink:

Vic loses access to 594 MW of peak generation from Tas. Will only be a problem if demand in Vic + SA rises to the point that other sources cannot supply it in full. Could happen - depends on how hot it gets and how well the Vic and SA power stations work on that day.

Tas loses access to 478 MW of base load supply that would have been used most of the time. This load has initially been transferred to the hydro system with 201 MW about to be supplied from the CCGT (gas) plant when it starts up next week (wasn't available to run immediately).

So the main effect is significantly higher overall hydro production than had been planned and a consequent increase in water use.

The current storage level is marginally above 20%, the official public figure was 21.2% as of Monday (will be another update next Monday) but it has dropped a bit further since then and is still being drawn down hard out of necessity, the only other option being the lights quite literally going out.

Realistically, if we get average rainfall and assuming Tamar Valley power station (gas) works flawlessly when started up next week and wind speeds are average then we'll end up around 14% at the end of March. Trouble is, Tasmania is currently in severe drought with much of the state close to breaking records for lack of rain over the past few months such that expecting average rainfall may be a tad optimistic.

If the dry conditions continue then somewhere around 12% is a plausible number for storage overall. That's not an outright disaster, it is still possible to keep the lights on at that level, but it would be an all time record low and is not a good situation that's for sure. Politicians, the mainstream media and to some extent the general public are already ****ing themselves at 21.2% so things could get pretty interesting in that regard if we do end up down at 12% or anywhere close. The public and political "panic" level may turn out to be at a higher % of storage than the actual engineering "panic" level. Time will tell.

What is being done thus far:

*Tamar Valley CCGT (gas) plant will be up and running next week at full load (208 MW gross, about 201 MW sent out to the grid).

*75 MW of open cycle gas turbines are available to run if needed, with a further 103 MW of currently unavailable plant being fixed ASAP. Main issue there is the 58 MW unit which had a major failure a while ago (though it's certainly not old equipment - manufactured 2009) and was shipped back to the manufacturer (overseas) to be fixed. The three 40 MW units (25 years old) just need a bit of work to get them up to full capacity but they're running as such and are being used intermittently.

*TEMCO are bringing forward some equipment replacement and that will result in about 30 MW of 24/7 load being taken off the system for 3 months or so. The plant will still be running, just using 30 MW less than normal.

*Some preliminary work is being done to obtain temporary generation if necessary. This is really just a contingency in case further problems arise. Plant would be gas turbine (preferably) or possibly diesel, depends on what could be obtained at short notice, and would be a temporary installation.

Bringing the old Bell Bay steam units back into production isn't really an option unfortunately as it's decommissioned as such (unit 1 last ran in 2008, shut down abruptly by a major failure whilst unit 2 was closed (but still running as such) in 2009 and work is underway to ultimately demolish the plant completely (though it's still standing as such)).

In terms of water storage effects, the situation is being mostly contained to the major storages thus far. That is, the small storages which are managed to seasonal target levels are still pretty much where they should be (with two exceptions although they aren't a critical problem).

 

[Smurf1976]

I wonder what back up systems are being devised to forestall this very predictable problem?

Electricity companies in Vic are not formally required to ensure that supply meets consumer demand in full and I'm not aware of any backup plans being made or implemented beyond what already existed (which is limited to load shedding a few large users).

 

[qldfrog]

thanks smurf for the update, I had no idea Tassie was already in such a drought, dry in brisbane as we have not yet received summer rains, but with the flooding around newcastle etc i thought the south had no water issue.GHave a great week end go easy on the A/C!

 

[SirRumpole]

I don't know if this had anything to do with Basslink, but I was in Melbourne on Christmas day and the power went off intermittently for about 3 hours from about midday when no doubt everyone was cooking their Christmas dinners with the aircon on full blast on a very warm day.

 

[Smurf1976]

in Melbourne on Christmas day and the power went off intermittently for about 3 hours from about midday

Would be some local issue (distribution network) as there was plenty of generation available in Vic on that day from various sources (coal, gas, hydro, wind, distributed solar) despite Basslink not being in service.

Back to the situation in Tas, well we've just passed through the 20% level for system storage this afternoon. The lights aren't about to go out but the politics is getting more interesting by the day.

 

[basilio]

Came across a story on the super rapid uptake of solar power and battery storage in Africa. Short story is that a company is doing roaring, unsubsidised trade in bringing cost effective electricity to some of the poorest people in the world - with no grid connection. Simple, cost effective, clean and renewable

It can be easily done folks.

The off-grid solar company connecting 12,000 homes a month
By Giles Parkinson on 19 January 2016
Print Friendly

ABU DHABI: Australia thinks it is doing pretty well adding some 12,000 homes and business with solar panels each month. In Tanzania, however, one recent start-up is doing even better – it is adding solar and in some cases storage to 12,000 homes a month with no connection to the grid.

Many efforts to bring electricity to homes with no electricity are considered something of a niche market. But Off grid Electric, the brainchild of a group of US and UK 30-somethings with experience in sub-Sahara Africa, is proving it can be done on a significant scale.

The efforts of the past few years has earned the company the prestigious Zayed Future Energy prize, for the SME section, which is presented each year at the World Future Energy in Abu Dhabi.

The principal behind Off Grid Electric is to create the world’s first massively scalable off-grid electric company. The company says it provides “clean, affordable and transformative energy” directly to households that have never had access to reliable electricity.

They can choose a single panel to power a few lights, or have the whole solar and storage kit that can power whatever it is that they want or need.

The success behind Off Grid Electric is that it operates as a service model that removes risk for customers. It uses financing measures – effectively a solar lease – to offer the latest in solar technology for less than or equal to a customer’s average energy spend on kerosene and diesel.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/the-off-grid-solar-company-connecting-12000-homes-a-month-19292

 

[bellenuit]

Came across a story on the super rapid uptake of solar power and battery storage in Africa. Short story is that a company is doing roaring, unsubsidised trade in bringing cost effective electricity to some of the poorest people in the world - with no grid connection. Simple, cost effective, clean and renewable

It can be easily done folks.


http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/the-off-grid-solar-company-connecting-12000-homes-a-month-19292

I think the figure given to replace the power infrastructure for Yarloop in WA is in the order of $6M. 145 homes were destroyed which represent 90% of homes. So if we assume a total of 160 homes and that businesses and other town infrastructure require the equivalent power of 40 homes, then we are looking at a total capacity to power 200 homes.

With the Tesla Power Wall in the order of $10K to provide 7kWh of storage, the 200 equivalent homes could be supplied with the 2 Tesla Power Walls (14kWh) and $10K of solar panels (providing about 10kW) for the same $6M. These obviously are just rough calculations, but one would think that it should be considered as a viable alternative to putting back up timber power poles.

Should they not look at that option, I would think instead of power poles they should go for underground power and share the installation costs with the NBN which I assume is not yet in Yarloop but is planned for a future date.