The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

Yes, but 50 years ago there wasn't the technology for solar and wind power.

Yes but the problem of lightly loaded lines, feeding low population densities, spread over a massive land area isn't changing.
Also I don't think the reforms, in question, were 50 years ago.

 

[Humid]

As of the 1 September 2018 a paper bill fee of $1.27 will take effect for customers who choose to receive bills by post.
To the endless queues at Australia Post paying bills here’s another one for yah when paying your power bill

 

[Tisme]

 

[SirRumpole]

Joh Bjelke Petersen was touting a water powered car back in the 80's.

Nothing came of it obviously.

https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/125650175

 

[Value Collector]

It's not arbitrary, it's realistic based on the cost that other countries can deliver power for .

Which makes it kinda arbitrary, because most of the variables are different from country to country.

 

[SirRumpole]

Which makes it kinda arbitrary, because most of the variables are different from country to country.

Of course they are, that's why averaging smoothes them out as I said before.

If we could be third cheapest as Smurf said, it doesn't seem far fetched that we could be only average.

 

[Value Collector]

Of course they are, that's why averaging smoothes them out as I said before.

If we could be third cheapest as Smurf said, it doesn't seem far fetched that we could be only average.

Averaging just puts you in the middle of the pile, So you are pretty much guaranteed to be either or charging to much or undercharging, and neither option is good longterm.

Its the job of regulators to set pricing, they will weigh all the costs involved and the capital expended to make the prices as low as possible while still living the the investors with enough return to get them to continue investing.

Saying you want to just set prices based on averages, is not going to be accurate.

 

[sptrawler]

Sorry to bring politics into this thread, but if we are going to have a power guarantee system which aims to reduce prices, then why isn't there a price guarantee built into the system, instead of just modelling that estimates what might happen to prices ?

Here you go Rumpy, you will have to find something else, to be upset with the Libs about.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...the-agenda-in-energy-fix-20180815-p4zxp8.html

 

[Value Collector]

This is a pretty could video,

 

[SirRumpole]

Here you go Rumpy, you will have to find something else, to be upset with the Libs about.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...the-agenda-in-energy-fix-20180815-p4zxp8.html

If Turnbull wants to price fix electricity, good on him. I won't vote for him but I'll support his dying gasp.

 

[SirRumpole]

Interesting report from California, remarkably similar to what we have been discussing here.

http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fi-electricity-solar/

 

[Smurf1976]

Interesting report from California, remarkably similar to what we have been discussing here

It all comes down to electricity being instantaneous.

If it was like wheat and could be simply kept in a silo then 99% of the issues would go away just like that. It's needing to match production and consumption precisely and do so in real time that makes it all difficult.

 

[SirRumpole]

It all comes down to electricity being instantaneous.

If it was like wheat and could be simply kept in a silo then 99% of the issues would go away just like that. It's needing to match production and consumption precisely and do so in real time that makes it all difficult.

It just surprises me that the Yanks, great engineers that they are did not forsee or plan for these problems.

 

[Tisme]

Interesting report from California, remarkably similar to what we have been discussing here.

http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fi-electricity-solar/

"Well, actually better than free. California produced so much solar power on those days that it paid Arizona to take excess electricity its residents weren’t using to avoid overloading its own power lines."

say wot?

 

[Smurf1976]

It just surprises me that the Yanks, great engineers that they are did not forsee or plan for these problems.

That tends to happen when politics and ideology gets in the way.

I've lost count of the number of times, including at least once on this very forum, I've been shot down for saying we need storage and in practice that means large scale pumped hydro.

Now that we're on the edge of a crisis it's flavour of the month just about everywhere.

It's just human nature I think. People won't accept things until the evidence is truly overwhelming and then it's too late to not have a crisis.

Asbestos, smoking, climate change - all the same pattern really and energy supply is another one.

Those really paying attention to all this stuff will of course have noted the real elephant in the room:

• Global oil supply capacity is increasingly stretched with limited spare capacity
• Oil is priced in US Dollars
• The Australian Dollar looks to be trending down
• Australian LNG is to considerable extent priced with reference to the oil price
• LNG sets the value of Australian domestic gas prices
• Australian gas prices to considerable extent set the value of electricity

So the rather nasty feedback loop there is that if someone starts a war in the Middle East, or even if it's just something like Iran or Saudi saying stuff it and stopping their own exports, then not only does the price of petrol go up in Australia but so does gas and electricity.

That's one of the reasons why you won't find anyone willing to give any guarantees about pricing. They can't guarantee their own input costs so they'd be taking a massive risk if they guaranteed retail prices.

Now if we go back a few decades then if there was one theme that was consistent across all the state utilities it was their efforts to not be reliant upon imported resources and preferably to use resources obtained within the same state. The inherent dangers of being exposed to imports actually being the very reason the SECV and ETSA were set up in the first place.

So we've forgotten the lessons of history and now get to learn them again.

 

[Tisme]

50 years of oil reserves left at current rates. Coal and uranium will be king, but will we sell it at a premium or just go for peppercorn royalties?

 

[Smurf1976]

In regards to various threads in various places on this forum and the whole current national political debate about energy, the bit being seriously overlooked is supply reliability.

As with anything, power stations and network infrastructure don't have a precise lifespan but they do wear out. If you want magic number then most thermal (fuel burning) power stations don't get much past 50 years old although anytime from around 40 years onwards they can and have ended up being either impractical or uneconomic to continue operating.

In that context here are the significant thermal plants commissioned prior to 1980 and still in operation:

Plant name, state, capacity, fuel, year first unit commissioned

Torrens Island A, SA, 480 MW, gas, 1967 (Closure of 2 units announced for 2019, 1 more in 2020, final unit closing 2021)

Liddell, NSW, 2000 MW derated to 1680 MW, coal, 1971 (Closure announced for 2022)

Dry Creek, SA, 156 MW derated to 143 MW, gas, 1973

Yallourn W units 1 & 2, Vic, 760 MW, coal, 1973

Mackay, Qld, 34 MW, oil, 1975

Gladstone, Qld, 1680 MW, coal, 1976

Torrens Island B, SA, 800 MW, gas, 1977

Snuggery, SA, 75 MW derated to 63 MW, oil, 1978

Vales Point B, NSW, 1320 MW, coal, 1979

Jeeralang A, Vic, 224 MW, gas, 1979

I'm not suggesting all this will fall in a heap tomorrow but as plant ages a few things happen. One is more minor faults crop up and it becomes less reliable. Another is the probability of a major failure occurring increases and related to that another is that it becomes less economically worthwhile to fix a major failure if it does happen.

It's like owning a 20 year old car. Fine whilst it's running and needs routine maintenance but even a minor crash will see it written off so far as insurance is concerned and you wouldn't spend $ putting a new engine in when the rest of it's getting pretty old and tired anyway. So you might plan to keep it for another 5 years and then find that it all ends real quick one afternoon a year from now when the engine makes some bad noises. Etc.

So in short yes, there most certainly is a need for investment in power generation in Australia. The technology and costs are one thing but from a purely technical perspective if the supply can't meet load then load shedding (aka "rolling blackouts") or outright rationing become the only options available.

Try to ignore it and actually overload the system and that ends seriously badly with everyone in the dark. That's not in the category of being like, say, eating unhealthy food that will do you harm eventually. Overload the electricity system, load exceeding generating capability, and it's coming down in a matter of seconds if some load isn't taken off one way or another. So there's no "ignore it" option if the crunch does come.

 

[SirRumpole]

So in short yes, there most certainly is a need for investment in power generation in Australia. The technology and costs are one thing but from a purely technical perspective if the supply can't meet load then load shedding (aka "rolling blackouts") or outright rationing become the only options available.

What would you be building Smurf ?

 

[sptrawler]

From memory, it takes about five years to build coal fired plant, correct me if I'm wrong smurph.

So even if they decided to build a coal fired station, it would be at least 2023-2024, before any of it was running. Gas plant is much faster to build, but the Eastern States seems to be short on fuel.
So whatever way they go, they will have to get moving on something, especially if Liddell shuts down.
No one seems to be placing any urgency on the issue though, so maybe the politicians know something we don't.

 

[TLS]

I must admit that I haven't read the whole thread.

But, with the ever increasing amount of residential and commercial properties reducing their requirement for utilising distributed power via installing solar panels and in some cases battery storage. I'm left a bit confused. Battery storage to me is still too expensive but when technology eventually drives prices down it would surely become the new norm. Ie. Slowly making those power generators less relevant. However, unfortunately I don't think the distributors and whole-sellers can really be avoided.

I realise a lot are benefiting from the ever reducing feed in tariffs etc but that to me is a short term bonus that expires in 2028.

Yes a power station or even solar panels both have a life span but at the moment it seems more economical to generate your own subsidised power even though you are still paying a hefty loss for their rights to re-distribute and re-sell it.

Mmm ... I'm really at a loss on this subject ... current power prices are ridiculous for the resources our country holds .... comments are welcome.

Call, me cynical but what concerns me more is where will the government eventually get their slice of the action.

- You install rain water tanks. next thing they'll require a meter to tax you.
- You install solar panels. next thing they'll require a meter to tax you.