The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

What would you be building Smurf ?

If it were all up to me then what I'd have done / do is:

Continue operation of the now closed and demolished Northern power station (SA, coal, 546 MW) to approximately 2035 running on an intermittent (seasonal) basis.

Continued operation of the now closed and being demolished Anglesea power station (Vic, coal, 160 MW) in the short term only.

Continued operation of the now closed and being demolished Wallerawang power station (NSW, coal, 1000 MW) until the late 2020's.

Continued operation of the mothballed Redbank power station (NSW, coal, 150 MW) for the foreseeable future with no set closure date.

No new coal-fired stations in any state.

Would not have permitted the export of LNG from Queensland on such a large scale.

Construction of pumped hydro facilities in all states plus large scale wind and solar and associated transmission as a replacement for what would, with the above life extensions, be an orderly and gradual transition away from coal reaching 100% renewable by the year 2050.

We can't turn back the clock however so the only real choice we've got is the "crash course" approach involving pumped hydro and whatever renewables anyone wants to build. Snowy 2.0 and Battery Of The Nation (Hydro Tas) may or may not be the best options but they're the only proposals of any real substance and are thus the best of what's actually being proposed.

I say that as someone who is neutral with respect to all things proposed in Tasmania since, as I have mentioned in another thread, I am personally pursuing a new direction in life which among other things involves moving permanently to SA. I'll be back down in the garage packing boxes in a few minutes.

From that neutral position I will say though that HT is absolutely capable of delivering and it's a serious proposal with the only real stumbling blocks being national politics and how to finance it all. The technical side is the relatively easy bit in that context.

Snowy is also most likely capable of delivering but is more closely tied to the Australian Government. That's good or bad depending on how you look at it. Under present circumstances it's probably not helpful.

 

[Smurf1976]

Mmm ... I'm really at a loss on this subject

From a technical (engineering) perspective it all comes down to two things really. Energy and power - and they're very different things.

Energy is the total. It's like saying how far you drove. Note that just because you've traveled 1000 km, that says absolutely nothing about how you did it or how long it took, it's only a measurement of how far you've gone.

Power is the rate. It's like saying the speed at which you traveled. If you're traveling at 100 km/h then that tells you the rate but it doesn't tell you how far you've gone. Could be on a suburban highway or you could be driving between Perth and Adelaide.

So energy = how much. Power = rate of use.

Now the great problem with electricity is that it's like light or sound, you can't store it as such. You can store a means of producing sound yes but you can't store actual sound anywhere and for practical purposes it's the same with electricity, we can store water in a dam or coal in a fuel hopper but we can't in practice store the electricity (even a battery is a chemical change).

So production needs to match consumption in real time and that's where all this gets hard. In places like SA, where maximum rate of consumption is about 4 times the minimum rate, it's especially difficult and the great problem there is that wind and solar generation, driven by the weather, don't always align well with when the electricity is actually needed.

Looking at Qld, NSW, Vic, ACT, Tas, SA (the National Electricity Market states) as a whole, at 12:00 today (eastern states time) when combined solar output peaked it was supplying 12.9% of the total demand of 26,728 MW. So that's 4005 MW of solar and 22,723 MW of everything else.

6.5 hours later at 18:30 demand peaked at 30,137 MW and solar was zero.

So there's the great difficulty in using solar energy. We get the maximum supply at a time when demand is a fair way below maximum, then we get no supply when we need it most.

Wind doesn't have the same daily cyclic pattern as solar but it does still vary very significantly and often dies out at just the wrong time. Eg yesterday at 14:30 demand was 23,100 MW which was the low point for the afternoon. Of that solar was 3051 MW and wind was 2783 MW. Then just 4 hours later demand has risen to 28,274 MW but wind has dropped to 1892 MW and solar's gone to zero.

Those figures are total across the NEM states but at a local level far more extreme things can and do happen. Eg available output from wind farms can exceed 100% of load in SA on occasion, that has actually happened it's not just some theoretical calculation. At other times, and it has also actually happened many times, every wind farm in SA simultaneously has zero or negligible output.

Now in the context of all that I must point out that shutting down and restarting coal-fired plant doesn't come cheap, there's a lot of cost there both economic and emissions and they also have some pretty serious limits in how low the output can be taken whilst continuing to run. It varies but in general they can't really go below 30% - 55% of capacity depending on the plant in question. Now if you get a lot wind and sun on a mild afternoon (not much heating or cooling being used so low demand for electricity) then that situation suddenly becomes a very real problem. Lots of wind and solar, not much load, coal plants don't want to shut down given that starting up again takes hours and they'll need to be running flat out at 6 o'clock that night. It's manageable in a technical sense, just run coal at minimum and cut the output from wind and solar, but that's rather wasteful economically and not a great outcome environmentally either.

Build enough large scale storage, be that hydro or something else, and all these problems can be overcome. That takes considerable time though - hydro projects tend to be measured in years not weeks or months, and big $. That said, once built it's all incredibly durable stuff.

Batteries are an option for storage but in short they're the quicker but more expensive and shorter lived way to go about it all. There's a role to a point but for the big "grunt work" type of application they're an expensive choice.

I'm very sure it's all solvable though. Just needs the politicians to make their mind up over things like emissions targets and then get out of the way and stop playing politics with it all.

An important point is that nothing actually needs to be invented here. The required technology is all proven stuff and it's just a case of applying established electrical, civil, materials etc engineering to work out the details then it's civil construction, trades etc to build it. There's no "trying to put a man on Mars" aspect to it all.

 

[Tisme]

I must admit that I haven't read the whole thread.

But, with the ever increasing amount of residential and commercial properties reducing their requirement for utilising distributed power via installing solar panels and in some cases battery storage. I'm left a bit confused. Battery storage to me is still too expensive but when technology eventually drives prices down it would surely become the new norm. Ie. Slowly making those power generators less relevant. However, unfortunately I don't think the distributors and whole-sellers can really be avoided.

I realise a lot are benefiting from the ever reducing feed in tariffs etc but that to me is a short term bonus that expires in 2028.

Yes a power station or even solar panels both have a life span but at the moment it seems more economical to generate your own subsidised power even though you are still paying a hefty loss for their rights to re-distribute and re-sell it.

Mmm ... I'm really at a loss on this subject ... current power prices are ridiculous for the resources our country holds .... comments are welcome.

Call, me cynical but what concerns me more is where will the government eventually get their slice of the action.

- You install rain water tanks. next thing they'll require a meter to tax you.
- You install solar panels. next thing they'll require a meter to tax you.

I'd suspect you aren't as lost as you make out. The basics are that power prices are ridiculous and I would say that is because the sweeteners provided to attract the sale of public assets were overly generous ... a sacred cow with a blank cheque without any oversight

 

[Smurf1976]

at 12:00 today (eastern states time) when combined solar output peaked it was supplying 12.9% of the total demand

A typo there sorry, that should be 14.9% not 12.9%.

Sorry about that.

 

[SirRumpole]

I'd suspect you aren't as lost as you make out. The basics are that power prices are ridiculous and I would say that is because the sweeteners provided to attract the sale of public assets were overly generous ... a sacred cow with a blank cheque without any oversight

Weren't the "sweeteners" more of a big stick. ie the asset recycling policy of Costello, which meant that the States got no more more for infrastructure unless they sold existing assets ?

 

[Smurf1976]

For those interested, generation into the NEM states for the past 7 days

Coal = 66%
Wind = 10.9%
Hydro = 10.8%
Gas = 7.1%
Solar = 4.9% (of which 4.0% is the estimated output of small systems and 0.9% is large scale)
Biomass = 0.2%
Oil = Minor contribution

Average spot price for the week (with the previous week's average price in brackets):

NSW = $86.78 / MWh ($87.08)
Qld = $76.97 / MWh ($79.92)
Vic = $67.16 / MWh ($67.28)
SA = $66.85 / MWh ($63.33)
Tas = $18.15 / MWh ($25.41)

 

[Smurf1976]

Weren't the "sweeteners" more of a big stick. ie the asset recycling policy of Costello, which meant that the States got no more more for infrastructure unless they sold existing assets ?

My interpretation of it at the time was that it was a way to pressure those states which hadn't already sold to hurry up and do so.

FWIW in NSW some of the stuff was pretty much given away. Liddell really was given away and Vales Point went for a mere $1 million or less than 0.1% of replacement cost. Even the relatively new Mt Piper station went for a bargain price with the Wallerawang station nearby effectively thrown in for free. "Fire sale" would be an extreme understatement to say the least.

There are arguments for and against governments owning utilities indeed perhaps the most difficult one is the situation which has existed for many decades in Tasmania. Who really owns who? Government owns the utility? Or the power utility owns the government? Quite a few detractors of public ownership have argued the latter over the years.

On the other hand in the interest of balance the counter argument would be about big business buying favours from government thus ending up with the same result but a different motive - private profit versus public service.

The key point from my perspective in it all is that decisions to privatise anything are usually made from an ideological perspective with whatever arguments support it being constructed to suit that pre-determined outcome. I've seen rather a lot of that and that's always the pattern - make the decision then find the reasons. If they can't find the reasons then just make something up which sounds like there's a problem which privatising will fix. Seen that game.....

 

[Tisme]

Weren't the "sweeteners" more of a big stick. ie the asset recycling policy of Costello, which meant that the States got no more more for infrastructure unless they sold existing assets ?

Victoria is doing quite nicely with that similar Turnbull pork barrelling, while QLD misses out because it wouldn't sell its power stations to LNP mates or anyone else.

 

[SirRumpole]

Solar power creates a job boom in Darling downs.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-...hundreds-of-jobs-to-rural-queensland/10118134

 

[sptrawler]

Solar power creates a job boom in Darling downs.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-...hundreds-of-jobs-to-rural-queensland/10118134

I would say most of the jobs, will be cleaning solar panels.

Certainly an impressive sight.

 

[Smurf1976]

Whilst our politicians in Canberra squabble over who gets to steer the sinking ship the sort of problems that I and others have been warning about draw closer:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...a-faces-summer-blackouts-20180823-p4zzd4.html

It's a bit like termites really. Keep hollowing out the wood and eventually the structure falls in a heap but the exact timing is anyone's guess. It'll happen though that's a given. Likewise if not this summer then next. If not Victoria then NSW. But if nothing's done then one way or another we're going to end up in the poo with this one.

 

[sptrawler]

Whilst our politicians in Canberra squabble over who gets to steer the sinking ship the sort of problems that I and others have been warning about draw closer:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...a-faces-summer-blackouts-20180823-p4zzd4.html

It's a bit like termites really. Keep hollowing out the wood and eventually the structure falls in a heap but the exact timing is anyone's guess. It'll happen though that's a given. Likewise if not this summer then next. If not Victoria then NSW. But if nothing's done then one way or another we're going to end up in the poo with this one.

As has been shown on this forum, people won't believe it, untill they experience it.

It is all well and good, having a burning desire to do the right thing by the environment, we will see how people's commitment to the cause goes when they are sitting in the dark.

By then it will be too late to fix it quickly, so be it, people get what they deserve.

 

[SirRumpole]

It is all well and good, having a burning desire to do the right thing by the environment, we will see how people's commitment to the cause goes when they are sitting in the dark.

Whether or not its the fault of the power companies for not maintaining THEIR equipment properly ?

 

[Junior]

By then it will be too late to fix it quickly, so be it, people get what they deserve.

It's a complex problem, I don't think it's fair to blame the general population.

A key part of the Government's role is ensuring we have affordable and reliable energy, and they have failed miserably in this area.

 

[HelloU]

The job of a listed electricity company is not to make electricity............

the job of a listed electricity company is to make a profit...........

I never lose sight of that subtle difference when I invest.

 

[Junior]

The job of a listed electricity company is not to make electricity............

the job of a listed electricity company is to make a profit...........

I never lose sight of that subtle difference when I invest.

Years ago I took a job with a financial planning firm. The guy running it said to me:

"We're not in the business of financial planning, we're in the business of MAKING MONEY FROM financial planning"

I didn't last long working for that ********.

 

[sptrawler]

It's a complex problem, I don't think it's fair to blame the general population.

A key part of the Government's role is ensuring we have affordable and reliable energy, and they have failed miserably in this area.

The problem is only just manifesting itself, the Libs are tearing themselves apart trying to avoid a disater, Labor are just telling lies and saying what problem.

 

[Junior]

It's all very sad and pathetic....look at Norway with their sovereign fund. If we had half a brain in this country we would have taxed the **** out of iron ore and coal exports for the past 20 years and stashed the proceeds in a massive fund.

We'd then have the capital to build all the infrastructure required to provide cheap and abundant energy in this country. Imagine how strong the economy would be here, if utilities bills were 50% cheaper than they are!

 

[sptrawler]

Whether or not its the fault of the power companies for not maintaining THEIR equipment properly ?

When the poo hits the fan, the private company say's it isn't our job to install plant for expected growth, it is our job to supply the existing load.
If we start putting in plant because the Government expects a population growth of x by 2025, and the population doesn't grow, we go broke. How is that in the best interest of the shareholder? Better still how is it our responsibility, it is like telling a shopping centre to build larger, because your expecting more people to move into the area.

How does the Government of the day answer that.

Well Abbott and the loony right, say it is the Governments responsibility and they should be addressing it by building a power station.

The Turnbull centre are saying, we will smack them if there is a problem, and make them fix it.

Labor's saying who gives a $hit, we will make it worse by putting in more unabated asynchronous generation.

So Abbott's solution is put to the torch, by the media and the general public.

Malcolm's do nothing and pray solution, crashes and burns around his ears.

Labor's warm feel good sit in the dark solution, is embraced by the media and the general public have a group hug to keep warm, while singing a chorus of Kumbaya.

What a hoot, you couldn't write this stuff, the Big Bang Theory is finishing this year, they should do a comedy series on Australia.

 

[HelloU]

Whilst our politicians in Canberra squabble over who gets to steer the sinking ship the sort of problems that I and others have been warning about draw closer:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...a-faces-summer-blackouts-20180823-p4zzd4.html

It's a bit like termites really. Keep hollowing out the wood and eventually the structure falls in a heap but the exact timing is anyone's guess. It'll happen though that's a given. Likewise if not this summer then next. If not Victoria then NSW. But if nothing's done then one way or another we're going to end up in the poo with this one.

(Hmm....I feel your frustration)
speaking of Big Bang.....this will eventually sort itself as more and more tubes get plugged or a blade fatigues...... and in the mean time chugging along at midday on a windy day with superheaters getting caked in crap is not a great option either ... I do not think the throwing of taxpayers money at base load and network issues has really started yet.... but I expect it will.