The future of energy generation and storage

[SirRumpole]

It probably won't be too far into the future, that is is legislated that all new houses, have to be built with solar panels fitted.
Seems like the obvious way, to ensure the transition isn't stalled and that the required amount of overcapacity is reached.
Then the base load stations can be phased out, as synchronous renewable generation, becomes feasible.

I'm not sure that they could legislate that without appropriate housing estate planning to ensure that all houses have a northerly aspect and so can take advantage of panels.

But if Andrews in Vic can legislate a gas requirement I don't see why it can't be done.

What you do with over capacity is an issue. Why not feed it into water heaters and then into batteries.

Legislation is not a free market policy though is it ?

 

[sptrawler]

What you do with over capacity is an issue. Why not feed it into water heaters and then into batteries.

Why not use it for your pumped hydro, charging batteries, making H2?

 

[SirRumpole]

Why not use it for your pumped hydro, charging batteries, making H2?

Of course, the "market" should be building more storage like Snowy Hydro 2.0. I doubt if you would get companies interested in such infrastructure so it would likely be governments shouldering the burden.

 

[sptrawler]

Of course, the "market" should be building more storage like Snowy Hydro 2.0. I doubt if you would get companies interested in such infrastructure so it would likely be governments shouldering the burden.

Yes, but if you require massive overcapacity, to have the surplus generation required to pump your reserve hydro water up to storage.
The only way you will get that installed renewable capacity fast, will be to legislate to have it installed when the property is built, as insulation is at the moment.

 

[SirRumpole]

Yes, but if you require massive overcapacity, to have the surplus generation required to pump your reserve hydro water up to storage.
The only way you will get that installed renewable capacity fast, will be to legislate to have it installed when the property is built, as insulation is at the moment.

Are you implying "domestic" hydro storage per house ?

The amount of water you would need to store to provide an average house with overnight power would be so large it would be economically unfeasible.

 

[sptrawler]

The amount of water you would need to store to provide an average house with overnight power would be so large it would be economically unfeasible.

That's why you need multiple storage mediums, not just pumped hydro.
Therefore if we want to have any chance of replacing fossil fuel, we will need a enormous amount of renewable energy and enough storage to carry the system through a period of low generation output.
The capacity required of both generation and storage, is enormous, I don't think the general public has any idea of the enormity of the problem.

By the way, why are you talking the average house? I'm talking system capacity, not individual domestic needs.

 

[SirRumpole]

By the way, why are you talking the average house? I'm talking system capacity, not individual domestic needs.

You said

"The only way you will get that installed renewable capacity fast, will be to legislate to have it installed when the property is built, as insulation is at the moment."

So I assumed you were talking individual properties.

 

[sptrawler]

You said

"The only way you will get that installed renewable capacity fast, will be to legislate to have it installed when the property is built, as insulation is at the moment."

So I assumed you were talking individual properties.

The amount of renewable's Australia will need, to become non reliant on fossil fuel, is mind boggling.
If every house in Australia was fitted with solar panels, the sum total feed in, would go some way to providing a large proportion of what is required.
It would be just about impossible to make people retro fit solar, but it could be made a requirement for future builds, also Government social housing could be retro fitted.
It will not supply enough, but it will help reduce the requirement for private sector investment, to build major solar/wind/tidal etc installations.
Like I said the amount required to be installed is unbelievable.
Someone needs to put it into context, so people can really understand the magnitude of the problem.

 

[SirRumpole]

The amount of renewable's Australia will need, to become non reliant on fossil fuel, is mind boggling.
If every house in Australia was fitted with solar panels, the sum total feed in, would go some way to providing a large proportion of what is required.
It would be just about impossible to make people retro fit solar, but it could be made a requirement for future builds, also Government social housing could be retro fitted.
It will not supply enough, but it will help reduce the requirement for private sector investment, to build major solar/wind/tidal etc installations.
Like I said the amount required to be installed is unbelievable.
Someone needs to put it into context, so people can really understand the magnitude of the problem.

Why not business and industry as well be required to install solar?

We also have to consider what the power requirements would be if electric vehicles become more common.

But lets face it, the amount of non useful acreage that we have in this country would more than supply our needs, considering that already there is a power surplus in Qld on hot sunny days from residential solar.

 

[sptrawler]

Why not business and industry as well be required to install solar?

As you know, it is difficult to get business to install anything, they don't get a commercial return on.
The general public isn't as fortunate, all the Government has to do is make it a rule and everyone has to comply. A bit like the house insulation thermal rating standard, we didn't ask for it, but it is now in the housing standards and factored into the build cost.

We also have to consider what the power requirements would be if electric vehicles become more common.

They may actually be beneficial to the grid, as I'm sure the charge points will have to be designed, to use the batteries in a system disturbance.

But lets face it, the amount of non useful acreage that we have in this country would more than supply our needs, considering that already there is a power surplus in Qld on hot sunny days from residential solar.

The problem with that is, someone has to stump up the money to buy the land and install/maintain the equipment, for that to happen there has to be a commercial benefit or the Government has to build/maintain it.

 

[basilio]

The economic reality of renewable energy in 2018

This is how coal dies — super cheap renewables plus battery storage
New Colorado wind farms with batteries are now cheaper than running old coal plants
Joe Romm Jan 10, 2018, 12:35 pm

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Credit: Martin Barraud via Getty Images
Solar, wind, and battery prices are dropping so fast that, in Colorado, building new renewable power plus battery storage is now cheaper than running old coal plants. This increasingly renders existing coal plants obsolete.

Two weeks ago, Xcel Energy quietly reported dozens of shockingly low bids it had received for building new solar and wind farms, many with battery storage (see table below).

The median bid price in 2017 for wind plus battery storage was $21 per megawatt-hour, which is 2.1 cents per kilowatt-hour. As Carbon Tracker noted, this “appears to be lower than the operating cost of all coal plants currently in Colorado.”

The median bid price for solar plus battery storage was $36/MWh (3.6 cents/kwh), which may be lower than about three-fourths of operating coal capacity. For context, the average U.S. residential price for electricity is 12 cents/kWh.

https://thinkprogress.org/colorado-wind-batteries-cheap-12e82b91a543/

 

[Value Collector]

But lets face it, the amount of non useful acreage that we have in this country would more than supply our needs, .

Just the shear acreage of roof top space in vast.

 

[Tisme]

What happens when all those lithium cells start to give up? Will they be like car tyres where even the council won't take them?

 

[Smurf1976]

It's not causing any immediate threat to supply but Loy Yang power stations in Vic look to be having significant difficulties.

This evening production between the A & B stations has been cut about 50%, with one unit at A station taken offline altogether.

An assumption on my part is that they're having trouble with mining the coal and/or getting it to the power stations. That's the most obvious common element.

Present supply in Vic:

Loy Yang A & B (coal): 32.5%

Yallourn (coal): 30.3%

Wind (various wind farms): 23.4%

Tasmania: 9.7%

NSW: 3.7%

Murray (Snowy Hydro): 1.8%

Somerton (gas): 1.6%

Others: 1.0%

Export to SA: 4.4% of Vic demand (13.5% of SA demand supplied from Vic)

There's no immediate problem, there's plenty to spare at the moment including some of the above (eg Murray and Somerton are both operating well below capacity and the other Vic hydro and gas stations are sitting around doing nothing at the moment) so just posted for interest really showing a real time response to problems.

That it just happens to be very windy makes it easier of course. Note that figures don't add to 100% due to rounding.

 

[Ferret]

Smurf, there's a high probability that Sydney's mothballed desalination plant will be fired up soon.
Any idea how significant its power demands will be on the NSW grid?

 

[PZ99]

FWIW > The desal plants' power consumption was to be offset by the windfarm in Goulburn.

Strictly speaking it should be less than zero (net) but that's open to interpretations

But... 250GwH https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Desalination_Plant

 

[basilio]

One of the interesting observations that has come from discussions on the " Is Global warming becoming unstoppable " thread is the question of how robust our energy generation and air conditioning systems will be as temperatures steadily increase.

We probably feel a bit protected from CC because we think that we can always move into an A/C environment if things get too hot and sticky. But accepting Smurfs analysis we are probably fooling ourselves.

 

[sptrawler]

We probably feel a bit protected from CC because we think that we can always move into an A/C environment if things get too hot and sticky. But accepting Smurfs analysis we are probably fooling ourselves.

From memory, all A/C's sold in Australia for quite some time, had to be fitted with remote switching ability. So Power System can switch them off, if required.

 

[basilio]

From memory, all A/C's sold in Australia for quite some time, had to be fitted with remote switching ability. So Power System can switch them off, if required.

That is not quite what I was referring to SP. Smurf was saying that as temperatures increase there is real risk of A/C systems breaking down - along with power generators. Not something to look forward to during an a 45C heatwave ..

 

[Tisme]

From memory, all A/C's sold in Australia for quite some time, had to be fitted with remote switching ability. So Power System can switch them off, if required.

Not in QLD at least. Max demand calcs are carried out by the supply authority and pad mounts or pole mounts installed accordingly. Anything over 5kWR must have soft starters to meet supply authority rules. MEPS also dictates COPs and QLD has a more stringent COP requirement than other states (or it did) which means suppliers can't legally sell the Thailand low grade knockoffs. In the process of legislating better efficiencies, Australian mass production of ACs has ceased.

With the new gases and VRF the 55degC condensing temps have uprated so they can run at fairly extreme temps compared to the old R22 days, even swapping out R22 for 407c results in net gains on old compressors. With split ducteds in remote places like inland pilbra with ambient design temps of 46Cdb the condensing units are sized for a reduced temperature split but maintained condensing temps so they run quite happily in comparative extremes.