The future of Australian property prices

[qldfrog]

I'm still not convinced property investors amassing properties is the root cause of the recent price growth. I know people always like to blame investors, but in my inner Sydney suburb the dominate agent in the area tells me almost all sales over the past two years are going to owner occupiers.

Appreciate that my local agent does not speak to all of Australia, but certainly my area is one of those that has seen massive growth in recent years. Would love to see some data that shows property investors are the problem.

Only reason a political party would do this is because it's some easy political point scoring because everyone loves to blame property investors and negative gearing.

Just my 2 cents worth.

100% with youliving in the Noosa shire,we have seen a price explosion.
And most if not all the properties are sold to owners moving in.
As a result, there are no rental available, and the headlines from the FB and papers are on how bad the investors are for selling to owner occupied.
As irony has long been lost in the woke side, we are missing on some entertainment.
If neg gearing disappeared from IP, we would see an explosion of rent price.
Current rental market is hardly covering ongoing costs,they would have to probably triple to cover depreciation and fees, taxes not to mention bank rates going up.
So even if prices fall.. they will not be slashed that hard in valuation$ with inflation, i actually expect rent to go thru the roof...
And a lot of ABC headlines and government panicking

 

[MovingAverage]

If neg gearing disappeared from IP, we would see an explosion of rent price.

Yup, I’ve been of the mindset for a long time that neg gearing is just government rent subsidies

 

[sptrawler]

I find it interesting, that even though coastal erosion is always a hot topic on the news, it doesn't seem to reduce the demand for coastal properties in high risk areas.

https://www.smh.com.au/property/new...isk-from-coastal-erosion-20220325-p5a82d.html
From the article:
The top 10 suburbs with the most value at risk are spread across the east coast, often in popular residential neighbourhoods or holiday towns with low elevation, high property values and a fast-receding coastline.
Paradise Point on the Gold Coast has $1.467 billion of property at risk due to its canals, the most of any suburb in Australia. About 20 per cent of the suburb is at high risk, the report said.

Cronulla in Sydney’s south ranked second with $486.4 million of property at risk, followed by Port Melbourne with $483.8 million.

 

[sptrawler]

Yup, I’ve been of the mindset for a long time that neg gearing is just government rent subsidies

Spot on IMO and the last thing the Governments want to do, is get back heavily into public housing, much easier to subsidise the private sector to sort the tenant, maintenance and rent collection problems.
Back in the 1950's and 60's, there used to be a huge amount of State housing, that was sold off, negative gearing arrived and bond assistance became the norm.
The State Governments would have given a huge sigh of relief IMO.

 

[wayneL]

Some not so trivial trivia:

 

[sptrawler]

Just shows how well off people are, there were no immigrants in the last couple of years and Sydney/Melbourne prices went ballistic.
Yet everyone can't stop complaining, jeezuz we must have taken over from the poms, as the biggest wingers in the World.

 

[wayneL]

Just shows how well off people are, there were no immigrants in the last couple of years and Sydney/Melbourne prices went ballistic.
Yet everyone can't stop complaining, jeezuz we must have taken over from the poms, as the biggest wingers in the World.

Huge boots to fill

 

[sptrawler]

Huge boots to fill

We are giving it a flcking good go though.

 

[Humid]

Alan Kohler: Soaring house prices have changed society for the worse

The disaster of Australian house prices over the past 40 years has not just reshaped the economy but fundamentally transformed society, writes Alan Kohler.

thenewdaily.com.au

How long can this go on?

 

[sptrawler]

Alan Kohler: Soaring house prices have changed society for the worse

The disaster of Australian house prices over the past 40 years has not just reshaped the economy but fundamentally transformed society, writes Alan Kohler.

thenewdaily.com.au

How long can this go on?

How long can it go on, until people stop buying them.
As you know buying a house in W.A isn't an issue, like it is in Sydney/Melbourne, but W.A doesn't exist to most people who live over East.
That's why we had to bring in 457 workers, I have no sympathy for people who want to pay stupid prices for a house, rather than move to another area.
If people said stuff it we are not going to buy, prices would fall, but they all want a piece of the action, who cares if we pay top dollar we will double our money. Dumb.
From your article:
And most of the wealth is concentrated in Sydney, where the median house value is $1.1 million, double Perth’s and regional Australia’s.

 

[JohnDe]

How long can it go on, until people stop buying them.
As you know buying a house in W.A isn't an issue, like it is in Sydney/Melbourne, but W.A doesn't exist to most people who live over East.
That's why we had to bring in 457 workers, I have no sympathy for people who want to pay stupid prices for a house, rather than move to another area.
If people said stuff it we are not going to buy, prices would fall, but they all want a piece of the action, who cares if we pay top dollar we will double our money. Dumb.
From your article:
And most of the wealth is concentrated in Sydney, where the median house value is $1.1 million, double Perth’s and regional Australia’s.

That's a bit paranoid.

Every educated Australian knows about all the states and territory's, including Western Australia..

As for 457 workers, WA has not been the only state to use that scheme. However, WA did shut their borders longer and harder than any other state, which caused the problem of people trying to get into the state from the rest of Australia and OS.

 

[sptrawler]

That's a bit paranoid.

Every educated Australian knows about all the states and territory's, including Western Australia..

As for 457 workers, WA has not been the only state to use that scheme. However, WA did shut their borders longer and harder than any other state, which caused the problem of people trying to get into the state from the rest of Australia and OS.

I don't think we have had 457's in for a number of years, the period I was referring to was the last mining boom back around 2010-2015, when we were bringing in thousands.
As for every Australian knowing about W.A, well then a lot of those whinging about the cost of housing in Sydney/Melbourne, should maybe get their school books out and head over here cheap housing, plenty of jobs and no floods.
That then would reduce the demand on Sydney/Melbourne housing and possibly bring prices down.
Also I don't know what you mean by paranoid? paranoid of what.
It just seems strange to me that people say the cost of housing in Sydney is too high, yet people are taking on more debt to buy them at a higher and higher price, then complain about it.
In todays paper:

Why are property prices falling sooner than expected?

Conventional wisdom said a rise in official interest rates would be the trigger for housing prices to fall because it would reduce the amount of money that buyers can borrow. So what changed?

www.smh.com.au

Sydney and Melbourne home values have started to edge lower before any change to interest rates, as buyers reach the limits of what they can afford, banks reduce how much they will lend, and more homes are listed for sale.

And what do people say, we need higher wages so we can borrow more, to pay more for the house. What a great way of running a competitive economy. ?
Put up the wages, which puts up the prices of the goods they make, so that they can keep the Sydney/Melbourne housing ponzi scheme running. Magic

 

[JohnDe]

I don't think we have had 457's in for a number of years, the period I was referring to was the last mining boom back around 2010-2015, when we were bringing in thousands.
As for every Australian knowing about W.A, well then a lot of those whinging about the cost of housing in Sydney/Melbourne, should maybe get their school books out and head over here cheap housing, plenty of jobs and no floods.
That then would reduce the demand on Sydney/Melbourne housing and possibly bring prices down.
Also I don't know what you mean by paranoid? paranoid of what.
It just seems strange to me that people say the cost of housing in Sydney is too high, yet people are taking on more debt to buy them at a higher and higher price, then complain about it.

Maybe there is some truth in your previous comment "biggest wingers in the World."

WA has only recently opened their border to the rest of Australia, do you really expect a flood of people that quick? First WA government need to give the youth of Australia confidence that they're not going to hard shut the borders again, then they need to have the right jobs to replace the ones that the youth would be leaving behind.

 

[sptrawler]

Maybe there is some truth in your previous comment "biggest wingers in the World."

WA has only recently opened their border to the rest of Australia, do you really expect a flood of people that quick? First WA government need to give the youth of Australia confidence that their not going to hard shut the borders again, then they need to have the right jobs to replace the ones that the youth would be leaving behind.

People not wanting to come to W.A isn't a recent phenomena, that is why we are always struggling for workers.
The other part about careers, most young people today, will have to change their career path many times in their working life.
One would think there is a better chance for a young Sydney person earning good money in W.A, than trying to forge a career and buy a house in Sydney, but i could be wrong.
i suppose there is always the chance in Sydney, if you can just manage to get the minimum deposit to get you on the housing ponzi, then you are made.
A bit like the pokies really.

 

[JohnDe]

People not wanting to come to W.A isn't a recent phenomena, that is why we are always struggling for workers.
The other part about careers, most young people today, will have to change their career path many times in their working life.
One would think there is a better chance for a young Sydney person earning good money in W.A, than trying to forge a career and buy a house in Sydney, but i could be wrong.
i suppose there is always the chance in Sydney, if you can just manage to get the minimum deposit to get you on the housing ponzi, then you are made.
A bit like the pokies really.

WA is not the only state to have trouble enticing youth and workers. SA and Tasmania have been losing their youth and brain trust for years, but I don't recall much whining about it. Instead they try to come up with ways to entice people over, most livable city, etc. It's a centuries old problem, young people are attracted to adventure and big cities.

 

[sptrawler]

WA is not the only state to have trouble enticing youth and workers. SA and Tasmania have been losing their youth and brain trust for years, but I don't recall much whining about it. Instead they try to come up with ways to entice people over, most livable city, etc. It's a centuries old problem, young people are attracted to adventure and big cities.

And spend the rest of their lives whining about the cost of housing, in the big cities.
I never hear people in Perth winging about the cost of housing, yet the whinging from Sydney/Melbourne never stops.

 

[JohnDe]

And spend the rest of their lives whining about the cost of housing, in the big cities.

I think the whining is more from the media, and parents. Most people get on with their lives, knowing that they are responsible for their own expenses. In my daily life I deal with 100's of people each week from many states, some complain about the price of housing but most of those are people with adult kids. Many more people are happy at the price that their property is worth. Housing prices is just one of the many factors that young people think about when it comes to planning their future.

 

[Iron Triangle]

...I have no sympathy for people who want to pay stupid prices for a house, rather than move to another area...

It's not that simple. My young blokes want to buy in Sydney but cannot afford so they are happy to pay $750 a week rent for a 3 bedroom house 60km west of the city in Western Sydney. I suggested go regional , buy a cheap house and fix it , then start a family and have a comfortable life in fresh air but they not interested as ;
a/ Moving away from family and friends isnt worth the cheaper house.
b/ Regional doesnt pay what sydney does in income or O/T opportunities.
c/ Regional areas compared to greated sydney dont have as many facilities or specialsts health care.
d/ Decent houses in good areas in major regionals are not that cheap as you think especially if you want something newish.

Its insanity the prices imo in Western Sydney , ol mate bought a house in Riverstone about 4 years , nice house and very small back yard in a new estate approx on 550sqm land for 820k , the other day they got it valued at 1.2 mill, they made 400k in just a few years. They didnt complain or whinge they more gloated about what they paid , crazy !

 

[MovingAverage]

ol mate bought a house in Riverstone about 4 years , nice house and very small back yard in a new estate approx on 550sqm land for 820k , the other day they got it valued at 1.2 mill, they made 400k in just a few years. They didnt complain or whinge they more gloated about what they paid , crazy !

Living in Sydney this line is getting trotted out all the time...bought for 850k got it valued and now worth 1.2 mill--made $400k in a few years. I find this logic extremely frustrating...if he sold for 1.2 mill tomorrow, guess what he'd be paying that and some for a new house. So reality is most people are buying and selling in the same market and odds are people will make nothing and probably just extend their mortgage further to "up size" to a bigger, better and shinier house. Not having a crack at your statement more expressing my general frustration with Sydney folks who are obsessed with real estate prices and trot out this flawed logic at every BBQ they go to.

 

[Humid]

Pick up something cheap waterfront in Bondi soon..