The future of Australian property prices

[Mofra]

They are that desperate to keep the bubble going? More good taxpayers money propping up the ponzi scheme called negative geared property investment?

First Home Buyers are all owner-occupiers, not negatively geared property investors.

 

[Mofra]

They might have to hoc the flat screen when mortgage rates hit 9% in 12-months or so. Welcome to the new socialist paradigm.

Queue Baby Boomers reminiscing about "living off sausages" and "using sheets as curtains" :

 

[robots]

hello,

good evening all, apologies to the community for not being around yesterday

big day, has been great the past week, working at a school which is building a new facility (julia's big gig), it is name your price on these joints, just fantastic

i feel like a farmer or a person involved in the car/manufacturing industry (people who have been forever getting handouts)

anyhow, australia still going strong, bit of a shakeup on the shonk exchange going on,

lock it in Eddie

thankyou
robots

 

[trainspotter]

Given the current climate of the negative territory globally we find ourselves in at the moment I believe robots has us on toast ! Real estate is the leading light in this wind down. Hmmmmmmm ...... where art thou bubble critics?

 

[drsmith]

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=3m

If this trend continues, how much longer before there are ripples in the punchbowl ?

 

[So_Cynical]

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=3m

If this trend continues, how much longer before there are ripples in the punchbowl ?

The one year chart tells a different story...much like our story, channelling and currently visiting the bottom of the channel...as we/they have done on previous pull backs.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=000001.SS&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=^AORD

 

[cutz]

where art thou bubble critics?

Sorry,

Been to busy managing derivative positions and catching falling knives.

Later.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

First Home Buyers are all owner-occupiers, not negatively geared property investors.

True, but it's all about 'creating' demand, so if one section of the market is priced out then you get the flow on effects to the rest - so keep the tax payer subsidies going to as many 'types' as possible.

Cash and liquidity will be king as the debt contagion spreads - Aus will be hammered severely when the foreign buying pressure totally evaporates - it happened before with the Japanese back in the good ol' days.

The government can only artificially prolong the property Ponzi and only delay the inevitable crushing bust with subsidies, grants & flawed immigration policies but in the end Aus will not be immune from what's going on in the rest of the world.

I can see A Current Affair doing stories with the 'poor me' types shown above and how the government has failed them etc etc

I wonder what the 'new capitalism' will be like?

 

[robots]

hello,

oh yeah, every house has been sold to a foreign person

look at all the chow shops we have in Australia maybe those people (and descendants) are buying property, get over it

buying the dream and rewarding themselves from the hard work they have done in their lives,

unfortunate that most australians are like the girl from Willie Wonka, I want it now daddy

great day brothers, gotta thank Kevin and ministers for once again stirring the ship in the right direction

thankyou
robots

 

[Fleeta]

great day brothers, gotta thank Kevin and ministers for once again stirring the ship in the right direction

thankyou
robots

Not sure if it was intentional, but I think you may have meant 'steering' the ship. You are the expert at 'stirring the ship' robots!!

I don't think it matters which way you steer a ship if you are heading into a tropical cyclone as well mate, but hopefully 'paradise' as you call it, remains largely unaffected.

 

[robots]

hello,

yes thanks Fleeta, an error

could be another round of flight to safety, instead of the precious yellow metal the bricks and mortar asset class may come under closer scrutiny

get a yield from it too

thankyou
robots

 

[kincella]

brrrrr its a bit cold over on the stockmarket these days, bit like being caught in a snow storm, wearing summer gear.....and trying to dodge the thin ice over a river ....one can be sucked down into a vast hole, at any moment...

compared to the warm and fuzzy feeling of being surrounded by bricks and mortar.....
wonder just how many more investors will turn away from the gambling den, never to return......
on top of the lingering GFC of 2008, we have the GFC mark2 to contend with, together the our own AFC concocted by the PM, and then factor in the EFC....european financial crisis....that may wind its way over the the west...

Marcus Padley has an interesting article in the Age today.....
me, I am looking forward to interest rates coming down, the only green shoots some of our so called leaders saw, must have been the weeds they were smoking, and getting high on...
have a great weekend.....and spoil your mum tomorrow..
cheers

 

[Uncle Festivus]

That warm and fuzzy feeling is from getting burned in the property bubble.

The property market is peaking now - the ill-informed and 'last-on Lemmings' will take it to blow off top then watch the scramble unfold........

Rising rates may be due to 'other' factors beyond the RBA's control....the requirement to attract money in a credit contraction.

From the BIS

Governments may find it hard to place debt if market participants expect the underlying balance to remain negative for years to come. Under such circumstances, funding costs could rise suddenly, forcing them to cut spending or raise taxes significantly. External constraints could also bind for some countries. Particularly in smaller and more open economies [e.g. Australia], pressure on the currency could force central banks to follow a tighter policy than would be warranted by domestic economic conditions.

 

[kincella]

festivus...you sound like your emotions are getting in the way....I generally find posters who feel the need to revert to, or denigrating fellow man...are lacking in the ability to debate the subject in a constructive manner....

so onto the debate..... where are the facts regarding all the property people getting burned.....not the vested interests of the stock market prophets looking jealously over their shoulders at the money invested in property....using their crystal balls....that are cracked and broken...


australia has a culture of home ownership, nothing wrong with the kids having a go....except in this instance the RBA and govnuts pulled the rug out from under them....(RBA made a gigantic mistake, and a repeat of the same mistake they made in 08) by raising interest rates 6 times in as many months....when it was not warranted....
retail spending is the bottom line that tells the true story of an economy...and those figures were lousy, and will only get worse
come the June figures....watch the interest rates plummet again....

then the AFC mining disaster tax has sent shock waves thru the market...
forget China saving us with its massive appetite....the 40% additional tax will mean China will look elswhere....and we will be left with nothing..
just a massive tax bill to pay for the excesses of the most incompetent govt in history...

 

[robots]

hello,

afternoon Kincella, and property will probably just roll along on its merry way

slow and steady and still very much available to everybody

have a great day, suns out

thankyou
robots

 

[gav]

Slow and steady robots?

I just got back from an inspection from the town house directly behind mine. This place is pretty much the same as mine - built at the same time by the same builder (3 large blocks subdivided and a group of town houses built).

Only differences are: it has 1 less bathroom and toilet, and 2 of the 3 bedrooms are smaller than mine, plus I have a front lawn and small backyard (where as they just have a concrete driveway out front and an even smaller backyard). Asking price range is 25% to 33% higher than I paid just one year ago. Massive turnout for the inspection, and whilst I was there one guy put in an offer for more than the minimum asking price. It's only been on the market 3 days.

This isn't a one off either, I've been to quite a few open inspections in my area of this suburb - most places are on the market for a month or less, and selling significantly higher than I would expect. Last year I was tempted to wait and keep saving so I had a bigger deposit - so glad I didn't, my savings would not have kept up with the growth - and even if they did, my mortgage would be significantly larger (in dollar terms).

How long can this keep going? Sunshine and lollipops!

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

..and the evidence keeps on coming (Real evidence and not made up irrelevant one off anecdotal stuff). This time from Domain

I sure wouldn't want to be a leveraged investor who bought recently. Much better to take a 10% hit on the stockmarket than 100%+ in RE.

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estat...r-house-prices-20100507-ujab.html?autostart=1

''We’ve had what looked like bubble-like prices, which always are pretty unstable when you get to that position and we’ve had government changes to foreign purchases of housing and we’ve had six interest rate hikes in a row,’’ he said.

''The housing affordability index has collapsed... it’s just about the most savage collapse we’ve seen in recent times.’’

All of this came as housing finance fell sharply over the past year and housing approvals figures showed the nation was close to building an annualised 200,000 homes a year, he said.

''So you’ve actually got supply coming through, paradoxically, at just the point where the market is starting to look toppy, so that ... could temporarily bring house prices back quite a way.’

 

[ASPwild]

This morning was at a property auction in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney. I knew the owners and I was curious to see how it panned out. When auction started and the reserve was announced all heads went to gaze at the ground and nothing happened - I am sure the owner got the property professionally valued. I wonder what would have happened if the auction was held two weeks ago?

 

[Bill M]

This morning was at a property auction in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney. I knew the owners and I was curious to see how it panned out. When auction started and the reserve was announced all heads went to gaze at the ground and nothing happened - I am sure the owner got the property professionally valued. I wonder what would have happened if the auction was held two weeks ago?

I have never been to an auction where "the reserve was announced", it usually gets announced when it is reached. So if the bidding did get to reserve then someone would have won the auction and the property would have been sold. Can you give more details like a link to the property as I am sure if this auction was run professionally it would be on the net somewhere, thanks.

 

[cutz]

I have never been to an auction where "the reserve was announced", it usually gets announced when it is reached. So if the bidding did get to reserve then someone would have won the auction and the property would have been sold. Can you give more details like a link to the property as I am sure if this auction was run professionally it would be on the net somewhere, thanks.

I think he may have confused the reserve with the opening vendor bid.