The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

I don't think this is accurate SP. Once-upon-a-time people were determined to own their on home and for a good period of time were able to afford a house on a single age and then perhaps 1-5 incomes. Houses were priced at these approx wage levels. Banks loaned to people based on their wage and their saved deposit

In my view the big changes happened around 2001-2 . I believe that was when we saw some serious turbocharging of buying houses as a way to become wealthy. The pitch was to borrow 100% of the house cost put in a tenant, get a tax deduction on your investment loss and wait for capital gain to make you a millionaire .

This suddenly created a whole new group of buyers who were not constrained by their income and were willing to bid up properties prices to build their portfolio. If I remember correctly there was one particularly property guru who kicked this pyramid off. (forget his name..)

And so for the next 15 years we saw the self fulfilling situation of property investors pushing up prices an then basking in their paper millions. Meanwhile "real" purchasers struggled to match the ever increasing house prices - becasue they couldn't.

That may be the case with the market over East, but here in W.A it was mainly driven by wage growth in the early 2000's, wages grew and house prices were low.
Therefore people upgraded and built, then it didn't take long for RE agents to realise prices could be lifted and houses kept selling suburbs started getting built.
The population grew and the prices kept going, then all of a sudden the missus needed a job to be able to afford the price.
Then bang the mining boom burst in 2014-15, we are still going down, prices are back to early 2000 levels people still are reluctant to buy.
Of course in very expensive areas of Perth, it is still expensive, but in outer suburbs 3x1's can be bought for low $200k.
Sydney and Melbourne will always be expensive, because most people want to live there, so there will always be a buyer. It is the same in any Country, take the U.K a 'normal' worker can buy a nice family home in the NE of England for a reasonable price, that doesn't mean the same person could afford a similar house in London.
Those investors in Sydney, Melbourne will be on 60minutes in the foreseeable future. IMO
Greed will always have its casualties.

 

[basilio]

I can see that difference SP. I am talking about Melbourne and I suppose Sydney house prices.

 

[sptrawler]

I can see that difference SP. I am talking about Melbourne and I suppose Sydney house prices.

Yes the problem with that is, the fallout from hitting Sydney/ Melbourne with a hammer, would have ended up with the rest of the Country being a waste land.
Labor were pandering to the out of control investor problem in Sydney/Melbourne, without thinking about the collateral damage, to the other 95% of Australia.
Like I said in another thread, Labor have great ideas, it is the poor implementation and lack of thought to detail that lets them down.
The same applies to the greenie's unfortunately.

 

[Smurf1976]

As SP points out we are seeing a confluence of issues around property

This sort of thing happens at the end of every bull market.

All sorts of issues suddenly come to attention and it's never just the purely financial ones but other things of a quality nature as well.

The details will depend on the industry but same concept always. Eg poor quality can be with physical things (eg buildings) or it can be things like the quality of borrowers, contracts or government legislation or that there have been systemic breaches of the law or that the product is deadly or whatever but it usually emerges when the finances are under stress anyway.

 

[moXJO]

I was talking to a department of fair trading building inspector. Guy really knew his stuff. Apparently he thought that the unit fiasco was blown out of proportion by the media.

Housing seems to be stable at the moment. It may just do a slow drift down.
I'm unsure on the economy. I was favoring everything going to sht. But the last month has me scratching my head. Retail is flat, but other areas seem to have bumped up. Possibly just a tax return pump.

 

[basilio]

I was talking to a department of fair trading building inspector. Guy really knew his stuff. Apparently he thought that the unit fiasco was blown out of proportion by the media.

Housing seems to be stable at the moment. It may just do a slow drift down.
I'm unsure on the economy. I was favoring everything going to sht. But the last month has me scratching my head. Retail is flat, but other areas seem to have bumped up. Possibly just a tax return pump.

Fundamental problem there moxjo. One of the major issues in Opal was substandard steel supports and poor quality cement being used. If that situation has also occured in other projects there will be systemic problems.

The incident prompted the State Government to commission a report on the building, spearheaded by three of NSW's leading engineers.

It found parts of the tower were constructed using "lower-strength concrete" and that "under-designed" critical support beams had burst under extreme pressure.

 

[SirRumpole]

Fundamental problem there moxjo. One of the major issues in Opal was substandard steel supports and poor quality cement being used. If that situation has also occured in other projects there will be systemic problems.

The incident prompted the State Government to commission a report on the building, spearheaded by three of NSW's leading engineers.

It found parts of the tower were constructed using "lower-strength concrete" and that "under-designed" critical support beams had burst under extreme pressure.

So, do we know who actually built Opal Tower and what other projects they have done ?

 

[sptrawler]

The moxjo post that i found most interesting and will probably bring about a change in proceedure IMO, was the one that mentioned the delay in delivery of concrete to site, I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't mandatory to install a batch plant at site if delivery times can't be guaranteed.
Once I read it and thought about the cement trucks trying to get through Syndey, it would be a nightmare trying to get a reliable continuous pour happening, interesting subject I would hate to be the project manager.

 

[moXJO]

Fundamental problem there moxjo. One of the major issues in Opal was substandard steel supports and poor quality cement being used. If that situation has also occured in other projects there will be systemic problems.

The incident prompted the State Government to commission a report on the building, spearheaded by three of NSW's leading engineers.

It found parts of the tower were constructed using "lower-strength concrete" and that "under-designed" critical support beams had burst under extreme pressure.

Yes I know, I posted similar before. However he seemed to think that there wasn't a huge spike in dodgy buildings as an overall %.

I don't think I agree with him. But he was closer to the action.

In my opinion there is some dodgy units out there. Another reason I've never been a fan of them.

 

[basilio]

The repair price for the Mascot Towers residents is jumping to at least $10m. That has to put a huge dent in the value of the properties because the proposed levy to pay for the repairs will be tied to each apartment for the next 15 years.

And there is no guarantee this is the final cost...
And what happens if some people can't/won't pay the extra levy ?

Mascot Towers repair bill passes $10 million as residents hit with special levy funding arrangement
...
In the minutes of an owners meeting to be held on August 22, owners will be forced to vote on the $10 million levy to fund the works, with the money paid in quarterly instalments over 15 years.

In June Mascot Towers owners voted to raise $1 million for initial works through a similar special levy.

But since that meeting the price tag for the building, which is too old to fall under warranty, appears to have jumped significantly.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-03/mascot-towers-owners-face-$10-million-repair-bill/11380902

 

[sptrawler]

The repair price for the Mascot Towers residents is jumping to at least $10m. That has to put a huge dent in the value of the properties because the proposed levy to pay for the repairs will be tied to each apartment for the next 15 years.

And there is no guarantee this is the final cost...
And what happens if some people can't/won't pay the extra levy ?

If the owner won't/can't pay, there are steps the Strata as with any business, can invoke legal steps to recover any monies owed.
Not a nice position for the owners to find themselves in, there must be some sleepless nights for apartment owners at the moment, I think it will take quite some time for confidence to return to the apartment market.
Having said that, there may well be some very good investment opportunities in that market, for the brave investor or someone looking to adopt apartment living.
There are a lot of apartments, not all will have the issues that have presented.

 

[satanoperca]

 

[moXJO]

Feels like we could drop a lot more and it would still be too expensive.

 

[StockyGuy]

Some of those regional increases make me chuckle - such as regional NT 3.1% YTD; must be increase based on very low average.

Chuckles aside, always surprises me how few people are willing to give the regional centres a chance. Not everyone's career is feasible out there but many are. Lower wages yes, but for normal people it's still entirely possible to own a three bedroom house outright in well under a decade.

 

[moXJO]

Some of those regional increases make me chuckle - such as regional NT 3.1% YTD; must be increase based on very low average.

Chuckles aside, always surprises me how few people are willing to give the regional centres a chance. Not everyone's career is feasible out there but many are. Lower wages yes, but for normal people it's still entirely possible to own a three bedroom house outright in well under a decade.

Some really nice towns as well. Forbes seemed like a very nice, clean town. The nightlife would kill me though.

 

[satanoperca]

Feels like we could drop a lot more and it would still be too expensive.

.
For melb and syd- Yes

 

[sptrawler]

Market forces, starting to apply pressure in Sydney and Melbourne rental market, as always happens after a bubble.

https://www.domain.com.au/research/...d-masthead&utm_source=the-age&utm_medium=link

 

[sptrawler]

The fall out from the falling property market is starting to bite, residential property construction in sharp decline, infrastructure needs to start rolling out. Hopefully not too quickly, or we end up with the disasters, we have had previously.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/program...esidential-construction-is-faltering/11415118

 

[satanoperca]

Blind Freddie could have seen this, kicking the can continuously was never going to work.

The dumb arse RBA wishing to drop IR to 0% just shows how incompetent they are, the Govnuts not willing to acknowledge that high immigration is and will continue to cause a drop in the standard of living for Australians also goes to prove that we a governed by dim wits.

While I am with your Sptrawler, I hope the decline is slow, given world events and our incredibly high private debt levels, my gut is telling me this downward spiral is going to gain momentum fast.

Funny how old Scomo has been so quiet lately. No amount of PR or marketing spin can change the outcome this time.

I feel for retirees, they are being screwed over big time.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes, if China and the U.S take a dump, we are in the can.