Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The future of Australian property prices

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the US housing crash, was fabricated by a bear, who stood to earn billions, by making his prediction come true...they made up fabricated CDO's, sold them off, then bet the CDO.s would fail....he had his hand in the whole process.......and all those bets could be made against just ONE mortgage...
I bet he is not the only one who fabricated a derivative to snare the players, and pretend his bearish predictions were correct...

extract....
But if you're looking for heroes of the crash on Wall Street who called it, better read the government's suit charging Goldman Sachs Group Inc. first. It claims the bank defrauded investors in the process of helping one of those prescient housing bears make his negative bets.
The suit alleges Paulson & Co, run by billionaire John Paulson, secretly helped construct a package of mortgage-linked derivatives designed to blow up so he could make a fortune. So-called short sellers, like Paulson, profit
when stocks, mortgages or other assets they bet against lose value.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...sh-cassandras-of-the-crash-20100422-tblq.html
 
so Stevens has stated the interest rates are now at about the long term average that he was seeking.....what are they then ? 6.5 - 7% or lower...

so all the noise and fuss and bad predictions of rates going over 10% by the other side was just another case of how out of touch with the big picture on economics some people really are....
those predictions were wrong and to the extreme.....as many of the conservative people stated here time and time again

the other news today about the govt proposal to levy 5 billion dollars of tax on the mining industry, should ensure that tax will kill off any blue sky...or pigs might fly scenarios regarding the resources boom continuing....
 
kincella said:
the US housing crash, was fabricated by a bear, who stood to earn billions, by making his prediction come true...they made up fabricated CDO's, sold them off, then bet the CDO.s would fail....he had his hand in the whole process.......and all those bets could be made against just ONE mortgage...
I bet he is not the only one who fabricated a derivative to snare the players, and pretend his bearish predictions were correct...
Click to expand...

I haven’t read the book but how does a derivative that’s based on a particular market but not directly linked to it exacerbate the problem.

For example using a hypothetical situation, I make a bet with you that the oz housing market will collapse, a bank has whipped the contract for a fee, I’m betting down you’re betting against me, the housing market eventually collapses and I collect, how does our side bet that affect the property market ?

The article mentions that the contracts merely make reference to the housing market and it also states they made the overall losses bigger, can’t see how it works.

No really wants to admit that maybe the property market was overheated, fuelled by rampant speculation/bad debt, bit like what's happening in oz.
 
hello,

good morning Kincella, great commentary

some good rain yesterday night, you been up to Kyneton recently?

was up there at easter the joint has become one nice area with a lot more to happen i believe

thankyou
robots
 
Morning Robots,
I have not been to Kyneton for yonks, I should go there, I lived there once as a child, I adored the place....I had my little Kelpie working dog with me, and used to put him in the competitions they held across the road at the showgrounds.....those were the days my friend...
very affordable housing there when I looked last year.....
Have a daughter staying with me, we have been on shopping sprees everyday this week, and we are not finished yet....doing a total makeover for her, she needed some TLC...
some thanks due to my tenants who contribute to the bank account, that enables shopping sprees of course...
thought about looking bayside while she is here....to see if she wants to re-locate down there.....
have some work to catch up on, in the meantime.....

looking like some form of sense is returning to those in power in govt.....ie the IR news, and the recording of foreign buyers....(but that is all they are doing, the flood gates are still open, and am doubtful of any slowing down)
I note the chinese banks are lending to them at very low rates, to buy up Australia...wish I could get my hands on loans at 2%

Unless our locals look outside of the cities, I think they will be locked out of the market for a long time.
Cheers
 
hello,

piper st very boutique with some classic cafe's/restaurants doing well, i think it will head around the corner to the main strip in the near future as many grand buildings there

train gets there in about 1.1hrs, heaps of people on it and all within walking distance

i wont be around much the next few weeks as settlement approaches on regional purchase, loan contract all signed, deposit paid.

Once all done will sit tight until new year, kick back have a latte

suns out for another great day

thankyou
robots
 
robots said:
hello,

good evening brothers,

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=1226&nav2=162#B

HUGE 83% even with all the foreign/chinese buyers gone, still going strong

just amazing

thankyou
robots
Click to expand...

Hey Robots, they haven't gone.....yet. The buyers are those who already have received approval. Expect this clearance rate to drop over the coming weeks as the foreign buyers drop off due to the restrictions and the local buyers drop off due to the interest rate hikes. It looks like the RE will be getting hit from all angles:D
 
The Government are increasingly keen to push short term residents to sell-up on their properties in Australia and to clamp down on land banking. If this is rigorously enforced then this could well weaken land and property values.

Funds that invest in Australian property and particularly land, as a land bank, have investors from abroad who often own large chunks of these funds and when acting together bypass the laws and regulations.

This appears to be a tax and law against individuals that would not include property funds.
 
Re: Australian Bubble Forum

Bintang said:
The following link might interest a few of you guys:

http://bubblepedia.net.au/tiki-index.php?page=homepage

Not sure if it has already been mentioned in this forum but I did do a search to check before posting this.
Click to expand...

hello,

Bintang, could you also disclose who Bubblepedia are and the associations they have with fund managers, cfd providers, hedge funds, 401k's, investment banks etc.

as its fairly evident in the world we live in plenty out there doing things behind the scenes,

sites like Bubblepedia influence many to direct there hard earned into the hands of others for exploitation

thankyou
robots
 
Re: Australian Bubble Forum

robots said:
hello,

Bintang, could you also disclose who Bubblepedia are and the associations they have with fund managers, cfd providers, hedge funds, 401k's, investment banks etc.

as its fairly evident in the world we live in plenty out there doing things behind the scenes,

sites like Bubblepedia influence many to direct there hard earned into the hands of others for exploitation

thankyou
robots
Click to expand...


From the website;

Bubblepedia is a wiki
It's early days, but a few pages are already proving to be useful for educational link backs, and collating the crazy quotes of spruikers and politicians. If you like the information you see here, we'd love you to contribute to it.
Click to expand...

You don't like what's on there. Then why don't you add to the site your wonderful 'knowledge' on the RE market and why you were self proclaimed ASF Investor of the Year 2005,06,07,08,09,10 .

Also add why you were banned for a few months too, that'll get the conspiracy nuts going. It could only be because the forum admin must of had a associations with fund managers, cfd providers, hedge funds, 401k's, investment banks etc. :rolleyes:
 
Re: Australian Bubble Forum

robots said:
hello,

Bintang, could you also disclose who Bubblepedia are and the associations they have with fund managers, cfd providers, hedge funds, 401k's, investment banks etc.

as its fairly evident in the world we live in plenty out there doing things behind the scenes,

sites like Bubblepedia influence many to direct there hard earned into the hands of others for exploitation

thankyou
robots
Click to expand...

You are welcome to do your own research on this and form your own independent judgement. I have simply provided the link as information for those who might be interested. If you don't like it don't read it.
 
hello,

yes, thats right i didnt read it when I noticed the links to Mr Minack articles from Morgan Stanley,

now what was that back in 2008 everything was going to crash by 40-50%

even the cheek of bubblepedia to accept donations is an indicator of the things that must go on

thankyou
robots
 
Robots,
Those that make their money from stock research, which they sell to their clients, appear to be the most vocal against the property market.
IMO they are jealous of the amount of money spent on housing, they would just love to have clients hand over the same amount for buying stocks.

And talk about one sided, they dont show endless charts on all aspects of the stock market, as compared to the figures they come up with for the property market
...if the stock chart dips its a buy....if it rises ...its still a buy, unless its a sell, for which they will have another buy to replace it.

From my observations on property forums over the years, we have a lot of stock traders, who intend to make their fortune on the stocks, and then eventually pay cash for the property. They also expect the property market to mirror the stock market, with houses going up and down on a weekly or monthly basis, and according to the daily news reports.

In the meantime, whether it is 10 or 20 years later, all those doomsday predictions are still out there everyday, whilst the housing market just continues to remain on its slow and steady rise, and out of reach for that mindset.
The rest of the community continues to buy, sell, move, rent, upgrade and raise a family etc.
Cheers
 

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