The future of Australian property prices

[luutzu]

Families have got smaller also, I think there will be a return to smaller houses, as the cost to heat and cool them climbs.

Small apartment. Loads of debt. Thin walls. No performance and little interests to have more than 1, letting accident bring the second.

 

[sptrawler]

Small apartment. Loads of debt. Thin walls. No performance and little interests to have more than 1, letting accident bring the second.

Yep won't be long and we will be getting on leaky boats and heading for Asia.

 

[luutzu]

Yep won't be long and we will be getting on leaky boats and heading for Asia.

Wouldn't be that bad. That and Asia [China] will head here to claim the place soon enough.

Good thing Uncle Sam and our ScoMo is working with PNG to set up a military base there. Protecting gas and oil first... other things second. Nobody's going to exploit Australians other then the (Western) NeoCons my friend.


Spoke to an VNese tradie yesterday. He said Australia is fast becoming like the VN he escaped when it come to property.

In VN, most young kids can just forget about owning their own home. It's not even in the mind of most he said. They just have to either be born rich, or live in the countryside where the parents could slice off a corner somewhere on their lot.

Just looked at properties and they're still very, very high. The average property will need another $300K off to make any sense. Seems that those within 1h train to the city are still priced at that builder/re-development potential. i..e $1.5M for a corner lot you could knock down, put up two small mcMansion on ~350m2 with flipping price at about $1.2M+ a pop soon

We're Australia right? Not the size of HK yah?

 

[sptrawler]

Wouldn't be that bad. That and Asia [China] will head here to claim the place soon enough.

Good thing Uncle Sam and our ScoMo is working with PNG to set up a military base there. Protecting gas and oil first... other things second. Nobody's going to exploit Australians other then the (Western) NeoCons my friend.


Spoke to an VNese tradie yesterday. He said Australia is fast becoming like the VN he escaped when it come to property.

In VN, most young kids can just forget about owning their own home. It's not even in the mind of most he said. They just have to either be born rich, or live in the countryside where the parents could slice off a corner somewhere on their lot.

Just looked at properties and they're still very, very high. The average property will need another $300K off to make any sense. Seems that those within 1h train to the city are still priced at that builder/re-development potential. i..e $1.5M for a corner lot you could knock down, put up two small mcMansion on ~350m2 with flipping price at about $1.2M+ a pop soon

We're Australia right? Not the size of HK yah?

Well Thailand is getting heaps of manufacturing industries, their quality of life is improving very quickly.
A very good friend of mine has a Thai partner and spends 50% of his time up there, he says things are going crazy up there.

 

[satanoperca]

The slide down hill is gaining some momentum, still just a small correction. Been waiting for the apartments to start falling, that is when things will get interesting.

As proof of how property is a long term investment :
2 Bedroom House in Port Melbourne sold mid 2017 for $1,040,000
Sold on the weekend $1,007,000
Take into consideration just stamp duty and selling fees and a nice little 10% lose or $100,000

 

[luutzu]

View attachment 90394
The slide down hill is gaining some momentum, still just a small correction. Been waiting for the apartments to start falling, that is when things will get interesting.

As proof of how property is a long term investment :
2 Bedroom House in Port Melbourne sold mid 2017 for $1,040,000
Sold on the weekend $1,007,000
Take into consideration just stamp duty and selling fees and a nice little 10% lose or $100,000

Property investors, particularly those getting in the past couple years, are either already under or very close to losing it. Not going to end well.

A quick look on REA listings for Chipping Norton, Western Sydney... similar sized land with similar house sold last year for about $1.1M... a couple I saw that sold in Nov goes for the low $900K.

And that's a nicer, more expensive area in that neck of the woods. It's quite a nice place but if you google map it, too close to heavy industrial area, in those 100-year flood plane. But close to the waters and parks. Just hope no industrial accidents or fire.

Come to think of it, most of Western Sydney's full of industrial parks with highways. Average, run-down small houses... and somehow they're all going for $800K+ on average.

 

[luutzu]

Well Thailand is getting heaps of manufacturing industries, their quality of life is improving very quickly.
A very good friend of mine has a Thai partner and spends 50% of his time up there, he says things are going crazy up there.

Yea, life's pretty good for those with dollars over there now. But then life's good anywhere for those with dollars I guess

But they're definitely getting richer than a few decades ago. It's quite noticeable.

Reminds me of my honeymoon there some years ago. I went into a jewellery shop to exchange the AUD. Tried to negotiate with the owner for a better rate, saying that I got a large amount to exchange.

She asked how much to exchange... $300 dollars!

"That's not big. $300 is not big."

 

[sptrawler]

I said ages ago there seemed to be a lot of building going on, while the population of W.A seemed to be falling, well the oversupply situation has hit home.
Building starts in W.A are the lowest since records were started.

https://thewest.com.au/business/hou...tion-falls-to-lowest-on-record-ng-b881034793z

 

[sptrawler]

Property investors, particularly those getting in the past couple years, are either already under or very close to losing it. Not going to end well.
.

It may well end up, that those who got in in the past 10 years, wished they hadn't. At least then everyone can say, lucky young people, they've never had it so cheap.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...d-to-dwarf-90s-recession-20181203-p50jvi.html

Imo in about 5-10 years, there will be an outcry, for the poor' baby boomers'.

 

[luutzu]

It may well end up, that those who got in in the past 10 years, wished they hadn't. At least then everyone can say, lucky young people, they've never had it so cheap.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...d-to-dwarf-90s-recession-20181203-p50jvi.html

Imo in about 5-10 years, there will be an outcry, for the poor' baby boomers'.

Sydney property flippers are getting into trouble...

https://www.afr.com/real-estate/syd...gn_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_twitter


Buyers in the business of flipping houses are starting to come unstuck with many finding they have mistimed the market and now face substantial losses.

In the past two years a buyer frenzy across Sydney saw old houses ripe for renovation being snapped up for inflated prices by investors hoping to make a tidy profit after a quick makeover.

In a hot market it was a tried and tested method that could garner clever investors hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. But prices have now fallen 9.5 per cent since they peaked in July 2017 and those who bought and renovated just as the market turned are now facing problems when they go to sell.

"Now is not the time to be flipping," director at Ray White Surry Hills Ercan Ersan said. "Last year there was a real fear of missing out, there was a sense the market would keep going up and up, but, whether it's shares, property or cash itself, markets fluctuate.....

 

[sptrawler]

"Now is not the time to be flipping," director at Ray White Surry Hills Ercan Ersan said. "Last year there was a real fear of missing out, there was a sense the market would keep going up and up, but, whether it's shares, property or cash itself, markets fluctuate.....

Now is not the time for flipping, like hell, IMO when labor get in they will be stuck with the house for years.
I would say it is the perfect time to cut your losses, if you're having trouble carrying the debt, it isn't going to get better in the foreseeable future.

 

[luutzu]

Now is not the time for flipping, like hell, IMO when labor get in they will be stuck with the house for years.
I would say it is the perfect time to cut your losses, if you're having trouble carrying the debt, it isn't going to get better in the foreseeable future.

The agent the article quoted reckons now is the best time to buy and also to sell

He wasn't referring to his business interest of course.

Like a recent agent description I read... investors and renovators, bring your tool box or your demolition machine.

Which is it? A reno is very different to a demo.

 

[sptrawler]

The agent the article quoted reckons now is the best time to buy and also to sell

He wasn't referring to his business interest of course.
.

I read somewhere that home listings had jumped 8%, the biggest jumps in Sydney and Melbourne, apparently.
It doesn't sound like a sellers market to me, especially when prices are falling.

 

[sptrawler]

All the ducks are lining up, just one more requirement. IMO
Should be some good buys, for first home buyers mid to late next year.

https://thewest.com.au/business/pro...enario-in-housing-market-crash-ng-b881045566z

 

[luutzu]

All the ducks are lining up, just one more requirement. IMO
Should be some good buys, for first home buyers mid to late next year.

https://thewest.com.au/business/pro...enario-in-housing-market-crash-ng-b881045566z

Yay. The plebs can finally pay $650K for a 3 bedroom run down fibro in Western Sydney. All that's needed now is $300K on top for the knock down, rebuild, rental accommodation.

At an average salary of some $50K in the area, it'll take about two lifetime to pay it off.

 

[sptrawler]

Yay. The plebs can finally pay $650K for a 3 bedroom run down fibro in Western Sydney. All that's needed now is $300K on top for the knock down, rebuild, rental accommodation.

At an average salary of some $50K in the area, it'll take about two lifetime to pay it off.

The areas around Perth where you can pick up 3 X 1's for $250K.
Oh I forgot the World revolves around Sydney.

 

[luutzu]

The areas around Perth where you can pick up 3 X 1's for $250K.
Oh I forgot the World revolves around Sydney.

Revolves around places that matter Homer

Perth... a fancier mining town for mineral executives and con artists.

 

[PZ99]

Despite dire predictions this week of a looming collapse of the property market, which would trigger economic disaster, new figures show a lift in the number of recent homebuyers.

Housing finance data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has revealed an increase in both the number and total value of mortgages issued in October

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/e737e15771171de17c8c0006fba184d6

 

[sptrawler]

Despite dire predictions this week of a looming collapse of the property market, which would trigger economic disaster, new figures show a lift in the number of recent homebuyers.

Housing finance data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has revealed an increase in both the number and total value of mortgages issued in October

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/e737e15771171de17c8c0006fba184d6

Hopefully, that's the bottom then.

 

[satanoperca]

If you need to understand the current status quo, then watch this video, it is brilliant.