The future of Australian property prices

[satanoperca]

Well this might just be the start.

Apartments sold at a loss hit 12.6pc, CoreLogic RP Data says

Some more interesting statements :

http://www.corelogic.com.au/media-release/corelogic-pain-gain-report-reveals-biggest-winners-losers

9.1 % of all homes resold of the June quarter recorded a gross loss when compared to their previous purchase price, and slightly higher than the results for the March 2015 quarter at 8.9% and a slightly higher result than the 8.6% recorded over the June 2014 quarter.

Growing trend and to think with the Chinese Government implementing even tighter capital outflow controls today. Putting a cap on annual cash withdrawals, of CNY100,000 for Chinese citizens using bank cards at overseas ATMs.

How are the developers going to fair when it comes for the large % of Chinese investors come to settle. Can see some fire sales coming on.

For the capital city and regional markets, the lowest proportions of loss making resales are currently found in: Sydney (2.0%), Melbourne (5.7%), Perth (8.6%) and Regional Vic (8.6%).
The highest proportions of loss making resales were recorded in: Regional WA (24.5%), Regional Qld (22.5%), Regional SA (20.9%) and Regional Tas (19.9%).

Those regional mining towns aren't looking good with the collapse in commodities.

Cannot see how the banks are going to cover **** this time. I see there has been a break down from a triangle on a downward trend on a few of the big four, how low can they go this time given they are mortgaged to the hilt this time around. To big to fall or to fail is the question.

Cheers - My brother might be coming to town after a little rest of a couple of years.

 

[shouldaindex]

I have yet to see anyone change their mind about anything on stock market forums, so people tend to find information that supports their theories, including me.

We all know a housing downturn is going to happen, but nobody knows by how much or when.

 

[sptrawler]

I have yet to see anyone change their mind about anything on stock market forums, so people tend to find information that supports their theories, including me.

We all know a housing downturn is going to happen, but nobody knows by how much or when.

Well my two cents worth, don't buy in Perth or country W.A, just yet.

 

[Modest]

Well my two cents worth, don't buy in Perth or country W.A, just yet.

What are you on about mate.....

Perth is safe according to David Airey (perth property agent and former reiwa president).

“We are looking forward to a big jump in the market,” Mr Airey said.
“I don’t think there is any risk of a correction here.”

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resi...to-march-across-the-nullarbor-20150929-gjxdos

 

[sptrawler]

What are you on about mate.....

Perth is safe according to David Airey (perth property agent and former reiwa president).

“We are looking forward to a big jump in the market,” Mr Airey said.
“I don’t think there is any risk of a correction here.”

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resi...to-march-across-the-nullarbor-20150929-gjxdos

I'd love to know, what he is smoking.

I think, I read that W.A has a negative population growth at the moment.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Property bubble popped, fallout = recession. Get ready.

 

[sptrawler]

Property bubble popped, fallout = recession. Get ready.

There's nothing like a recession, to give Gen X & Y's the opportunities, the baby boomers had.

Yep, they can jump into cheap rental properties.

Distressed companies, great companies at bargain prices.

Just set up your line of credit, and jump on the opportunity.

Let's see how many do it.

My guess, it will be similar numbers, to the baby boomer's.

Nothing much changes.

 

[Modest]

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realesta...nt-up-reiwa-data/story-fnhlgriw-1227558922440

 

[sptrawler]

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realesta...nt-up-reiwa-data/story-fnhlgriw-1227558922440

Who would have guessed that?

A unit over the road, was put on the market 3 months ago, for $299,000

I see it now, has a sticker price of $249,000 ONO.

Will we have generation Z saying to us in 20 years time, jeez you were lucky with those prices.

Or will we have them saying, why the hell did you pay that much?

That is why, those who don't take chances can gloat, when those who do stuff up.

But those who do take chances and win, are just lucky and have to say nothing.lol

 

[Bill M]

Property bubble popped, fallout = recession. Get ready.

Still waiting for as new, 2 bedroom , 2 bathroom apartments in good suburbs of Sydney to come down in price but it isn't happening. Why is this so?

 

[tech/a]

Still waiting for as new, 2 bedroom , 2 bathroom apartments in good suburbs of Sydney to come down in price but it isn't happening. Why is this so?

Bill

Have you ever considered Small project development.
3 or 4 to a block?

 

[Bill M]

Bill

Have you ever considered Small project development.
3 or 4 to a block?

I'd consider buying into one but I would never contemplate buying the land and doing it myself. I don't think I have enough money to do that or the brains to do it. I'd probably have to borrow, which I don't want to do and then hire all the professionals to do the job. I'll put that in the too hard basket, too much risk involved.

 

[sptrawler]

Perth IMO, will be in an oversupply position, in the next 12 - 18 months.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realesta...t/news-story/00d9da45e3ab1ce612382246335b3e10

A correction is long overdue. IMO

 

[Modest]

Perth IMO, will be in an oversupply position, in the next 12 - 18 months.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realesta...t/news-story/00d9da45e3ab1ce612382246335b3e10

A correction is long overdue. IMO

I have my fingers crossed the prices return to reality as I am sitting in all cash position at the moment looking for the right time to pounce for my first home.

 

[sptrawler]

I have my fingers crossed the prices return to reality as I am sitting in all cash position at the moment looking for the right time to pounce for my first home.

Just make sure you research it well, you usually make the profit, when you buy. Not when you sell.

Long term, I think Perth is a great investment, just buy wisely.

 

[PeterJ]

Just make sure you research it well, you usually make the profit, when you buy. Not when you sell.

this is great advice
look for motivated sellers,
people that need to sell for whatever reason,
thats where the discounts are available
and remember, land appreciates long term, buildings depreciate !

Long term, I think Perth is a great investment, just buy wisely.

I have been here for 3 years now,
prices were ridiculous then and still are, even though they have dropped a little
great idea to start with a house and not an apartment

all the best
Peter

 

[Tom32]

Perth IMO, will be in an oversupply position, in the next 12 - 18 months.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realesta...t/news-story/00d9da45e3ab1ce612382246335b3e10

A correction is long overdue. IMO

From your Perth now article:

"RE/Max’s Geoff Baldwin believes WA should be reassured by the US market rebound since the GFC, despite predictions it would take that market many decades to recover."

I imagine that statement is cold comfort for property owners. as nice as it is to be a homeowner I don't expect it to be a winning investment as employment goes from mining / construction work to services / tourism if we are lucky. Not a recipe for wages growth.

One positive for owners though; on abc radio property segment this afternoon they were explaining at present is a good opportunity for upsizers as the 500k bracket hasn't fallen as far as the 1M bracket which in their example they put 150k falls as the potential saving on the table now. I don't think my employment prospects in this fine state warrant that move for myself but I can see their logic. Even if you own a home if you plan on upsizing a fall isn't the end of the world.

 

[Klogg]

One positive for owners though; on abc radio property segment this afternoon they were explaining at present is a good opportunity for upsizers as the 500k bracket hasn't fallen as far as the 1M bracket which in their example they put 150k falls as the potential saving on the table now. I don't think my employment prospects in this fine state warrant that move for myself but I can see their logic. Even if you own a home if you plan on upsizing a fall isn't the end of the world.

I'm curious to know if this is a general rule - that higher priced property is more volatile, hence drops more during a cyclical downturn (and increases more during the upswing).

Do any statistics give this level of detail?
(Sorry, I'm being lazy - haven't investigated it a whole lot myself)

 

[poverty]

Well here we go, Westpac do a capital raising @$25.50 to protect themselves from a potential property bubble. They just confirmed the bubble!

 

[Tom32]

I'm curious to know if this is a general rule - that higher priced property is more volatile, hence drops more during a cyclical downturn (and increases more during the upswing).

Do any statistics give this level of detail?
(Sorry, I'm being lazy - haven't investigated it a whole lot myself)

From what I've seen the biggest gains / falls occur in the top end but in percentages it's probably around even with exceptions Thinking through it id say it depends:

Sometimes cheap markets can go up dramatically like 2 or 3 times current price over a year or two. Things to look for here are markets where the cost to replace is 2-3 times current price. A bit of population growth and before one new house gets built (except for eccentric reasons) the market has to lift to this replacement cost minus depreciation on the existing dwellings. Think remote / rural towns. I've seen this happen plenty of times moving to these places with others to build new infrastructure etc. the premium properties don't move as much but tend to be acreages too so the replacemt cost isn't so much a factor.

I can think of government policy that would hold up the bottom of the market with the top end becoming weak. Think beaker creep and no tax changes. I can think of other changes that would hurt the bottom end: think minimum deposit requirements.