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The future of Australian property prices

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I read it'll take unemployment going up to 7-8% before there's a even a 5-10% decline in house prices.

That would take a major China and/or US meltdown affecting actual $ in Australia (not just negative sentiment), doesn't look like it'll happen this year, but I'm not an expert on global stuff.
 
A common logic seems to be that "the money has to go somewhere, so if not property then where?" followed by arguments that it won't be shares, gold etc because they're already not doing too well.

If we get what used to be known as a credit crunch, and there seem to be a few hints that we're heading that way at least to a modest extent with tightening lending criteria and so on, well then that changes everything. You don't need to worry about where the money will go if there isn't much money around in the first place.

Thinking of people I know and businesses that I know a bit about, they're pretty much all doing the same thing. Repaying debt and reducing risk. I don't see anyone borrowing big to buy anything they don't need but I do see plenty choosing to not travel or otherwise spend so as to reduce debt. Obviously that's a small sample, but I do think that mindset is becoming a lot more common that it was a few years ago. Now, if this idea becomes mainstream and "normal" then, given the huge amount of private debt that's around, it could continue for a very long time.

So will the money keep going into property? Or will it be stocks or gold or bonds? Or will the money simply be repaid and not be invested in anything? That outcome seems plausible to me at least to some extent.
 
Smurf1976 said:
A common logic seems to be that "the money has to go somewhere, so if not property then where?"
Click to expand...


Why money has to go somewhere? Money doesn't has legs, it is not moving by itself. It is the state of mind that controls movements of money. When everyone is scared, they will be more than happy to earn 1% per anum in their savings accounts.
Also, money kept in hares and real estate just disappears, goes in smoke, they won't move anywhere. Only cash is capable of moving somewhere if the owner allows this action.
 
Money simply repaid = collapse of fiat money system. This is the problem we currently (possibly) face.... Credit saturation.
 
trainspotter said:
*BINGO* .... posted on 10th-August-2013 11:31 AM

You HAD been warned !
Click to expand...

eh, the Aus Guvmint found a solution to this problem: import demand from overseas in the form of Chinese speculators.
What was once Australian FHOB v. Aussie Investor/speculator has now turned into Aussie Investor/speculator v. Chinese speculator with the only certain winners being developers.
 
wayneL said:
Money simply repaid = collapse of fiat money system. This is the problem we currently (possibly) face.... Credit saturation.
Click to expand...

That could be the reason China is stockpiling gold. They own $hit loads of U.S bonds money etc and the U.S has being undermining the value of their dollar, to make their businesses competitive.

I guess sooner or later, there will be a call to again tie currencies, to an underlying asset.

It won't work every time, to just print money, it worked for the U.S this time, but I can't see everyone wearing it again.
 
me thinks this is the proverbial taxi drivers talking about stocks



Just think, there's no limit to what you can earn from being a broker.
 
I'd turn up for an Apple TV!

Anyways, the real bear leg of the market will probably move when house prices move.

Been an entertaining few days on the market, but we're back to 5183 now (Friday afternoon's price).
 
Sounds a bit like the white label "stock trading" platforms that people can re-sell with a borrowed AFS license.

I digress. My Mortgage broker told me today of CBA offering 2 year fixed loan for 4.19%. This is considerably cheaper than their discounted variable rate. My gut says this is because CBA thinks interest rates are heading lower.
 
Just read back to the beginning of thread .
Apparently in 2009 Melbourne was in the throes of a property bubble.

Another aspect of our current " over valuation" is over seas buyers (esp if locked into pound or USD ( read Yuan till 2 weeks ago)) see AUS property as one third cheaper to buy than 2 years ago !!

So we are not overpriced ; we just have to move out of the way for the next lot ( maybe it's Khama)

Scub
 
MrBurns said:
Anyone know what happened to robots ?
Click to expand...

Living the dream and riding on the trams man !

APRA must be wringing their hands ...


http://www.domain.com.au/news/apra-figures-yet-to-show-signs-of-investor-slowdown-20150831-gjbbas/

Hmmmm maybe they aren't aware of this ....


Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resi...ousing-slowdown-20150713-giayov#ixzz3kSrPE1uP

 
http://www.afr.com/news/policy/budg...mulative-deficits-in-60-years-20150505-gguuug
Got to love numbers.


Nothing can go wrong, just ask Joe - worlds best treasurer 3 years running
 
satanoperca said:
http://www.afr.com/news/policy/budg...mulative-deficits-in-60-years-20150505-gguuug
Got to love numbers.

Nothing can go wrong, just ask Joe - worlds best treasurer 3 years running
Click to expand...


http://www.news.com.au/finance/mone...-billion-in-debt/story-e6frfmcr-1227289530147

I blame the Labor Government for this .... $900 bonus and all HAHA !!


http://www.news.com.au/finance/mone...-billion-in-debt/story-e6frfmcr-1227289530147

Just gonna dust off my memory bank ... ERROR ERROR
 
I was wondering if anyone has ever had anything to do with, or heard of this guy?

He claims to be a property cycle guru and is saying current cycle is no where near finishing and will run for at least another 14-15 years. Hard believe if the stock price trend of the big four banks is any guide at present??

He says property prices follow cycles of 14 years of expansion followed by 4 years of contraction (18 year fixed cycle)


http://www.phillipjanderson.com/18-year-real-estate-cycle/
 
What would 14 more years of property price expansion do to this graph?

I guess we might find out! The 4 year 'debt reduction' phase which follows would be interesting.

 
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