The future of Australian property prices

[Mrmagoo]

If you look at the people sitting on large property portfolios that are debt free or near to it, they have generally systematically used compounding to build and pay off their portfolio.



Compounding has worked for the stock indexes all along and has never stopped, it didn't stop in 1995.

If you want to see compounding, be sure to look at the accumulation indexes though, so you can see the benefits of the retained income.

I put 500 a week into telstra/CBA stocks. I am much poorer than property speculators in sydney. especially with all the fees I pay.

 

[Klogg]

You don't understand how the world works you are detached from reality. You won't get a plum union, blue collar job, full time with wages and conditions unless you know someone. Even then it still might not be enough to buy a house.

Many would love to get a factory job, do overtime and get 100k a year plus benefits. Dream job. It aint happening. Not unless you know someone.

You need a white collar job or a trade wage to afford a house. Maybe even two of those incomes. You are 100% living in the past I hate to say.

I think TechA has a point here - Time and time again it has been proven that those who are wealthy got there through cost controls, not through an inflated wage. And if they can couple this with strong business knowledge, they're well ahead of anyone else.

Even if that 100k factory job is not available, those with discipline will come out ahead in the long run. And in the long run, these people can afford a house.

 

[Mrmagoo]

I think TechA has a point here - Time and time again it has been proven that those who are wealthy got there through cost controls, not through an inflated wage. And if they can couple this with strong business knowledge, they're well ahead of anyone else.

Even if that 100k factory job is not available, those with discipline will come out ahead in the long run. And in the long run, these people can afford a house.

Problem is that these are just words based on nothing.

I am saving.

I am careful with what I spend.

I am well and truly behind Sydney home buyers over the last 2 years.

 

[Klogg]

Problem is that these are just words based on nothing.

I am saving.

I am careful with what I spend.

I am well and truly behind Sydney home buyers over the last 2 years.

You're right - I didn't provide any evidence. I'll try to do so when I get home and have time to find it.

I might also add that 2 years isn't a very long time.

 

[Value Collector]

I put 500 a week into telstra/CBA stocks. I am much poorer than property speculators in sydney. especially with all the fees I pay.

Lots of speculators in property have made money, lots of speculators have lost money.

CBA stocks have out performed property since 1995 (that's the date you picked), not to mention the higher dividend return if compounded into more cba shares means that since 1995 Cba has really out performed property.

To the point that a long term property invested ended up in a better position than a long term CBA shareholder might be explained by the property investor probably using leverage to increase their return. But there is nothing immoral about using leverage, by doing so they also took more risk, so the extra gain was not free.

 

[tech/a]

You don't understand how the world works you are detached from reality.

Reality is simply a perception.
No one said its easy or common
to all---

I'm sure my kids and grand kids
are thankful that my perception
of reality is vastly different to yours.

Good luck Magoo---you maybe
lucky and one day the light will
flick on.---You'll crawl out of your box.

 

[Value Collector]

Problem is that these are just words based on nothing.

I am saving.

I am careful with what I spend.

I am well and truly behind Sydney home buyers over the last 2 years.

Who cares, who you are behind, run your own race.

If you are investing $500 per week in Telstra and CBA, I think you have done fairly well over the last 2 years, and you should have a decent capital base that is compounding for you now.

 

[Mrmagoo]

Reality is simply a perception.
No one said its easy or common
to all---

I'm sure my kids and grand kids
are thankful that my perception
of reality is vastly different to yours.

Good luck Magoo---you maybe
lucky and one day the light will
flick on.---You'll crawl out of your box.

More meaningless words. I understand though. It can be hard to let go of your ego, especially with all the real estate agents and property managers constantly telling you how great you are and how hard you've worked ect.

 

[tech/a]

More meaningless words. I understand though. It can be hard to let go of your ego, especially with all the real estate agents and property managers constantly telling you how great you are and how hard you've worked ect.

Sorry I seem to have stumbled into Romper Room.

 

[trainspotter]

Sorry I seem to have stumbled into Romper Room.

Forget it tech/a ... it's a perception thing plus he is too young to remember Romper Room

 

[Knobby22]

Problem is that these are just words based on nothing.

I am saving.

I am careful with what I spend.

I am well and truly behind Sydney home buyers over the last 2 years.

You and your friends need to get political and stop being the generation being trampled on.
You saw Abbott just made a comment that he wants prices to continue to climb and he is not planning on correcting any of the imbalances in the system. Labor also will do little. The reason they will do little is that that gen Y aren't a voting force in politics.

 

[sptrawler]

I put 500 a week into telstra/CBA stocks. I am much poorer than property speculators in sydney. especially with all the fees I pay.

If you keep doing that, it will enable you to break into the property market, when the opportunity presents.

Which it will.

 

[Junior]

I put 500 a week into telstra/CBA stocks. I am much poorer than property speculators in sydney. especially with all the fees I pay.

As others have said, if you can set aside $500 a week for a few years, you'll be in the market soon enough.

Why are you paying high fees? Are you purchasing units in both stocks every week? Might be better off accumulating cash and making a purchase once every month or two, to reduce brokerage costs.

 

[rryall]

It is OK everyone Domain Group senior economist Andrew Wilson says we are not in a bubble... Fancy that someone from within the housing industry saying everything is sunshine and lollipops

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/re...-unemployment-the-dollar-20150604-ghes4d.html

 

[MrBurns]

Worst trade deficit on record, the share market doesn't like it , surely housing will follow shortly.

 

[Tyler Durden]

It is OK everyone Domain Group senior economist Andrew Wilson says we are not in a bubble... Fancy that someone from within the housing industry saying everything is sunshine and lollipops

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/re...-unemployment-the-dollar-20150604-ghes4d.html

I actually think this is good - escalates and speeds up the bubble process

 

[Mrmagoo]

I actually think this is good - escalates and speeds up the bubble process

Hehe. I have a lot of friends who are sitting on the sidelines not buying anything. It is pretty amazing how simply many generation Y chose to live compared to the stereotypes and the lavish excess of the baby boomers.

 

[tech/a]

Hehe. I have a lot of friends who are sitting on the sidelines not buying anything. It is pretty amazing how simply many generation Y chose to live compared to the stereotypes and the lavish excess of the baby boomers.

Circumstance necessitate choice.
We all have them
We all make them

 

[Mrmagoo]

Circumstance necessitate choice.
We all have them
We all make them

Don't worry the next generation will be too ignorant and poor to know about the boomer excesses and how good things actually used to be. You can just lie to them. They won't know any different. They might even admire you for being a "hard worked". LMAO.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

It's official - it's a bubble?

It is the B-word that few with their hands on the levers of Australia's economy have dared to publicly utter.

Until now.

A fortnight ago Greg Medcraft, the usually reserved chairman of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), went public with warnings about a housing "bubble" in Sydney and to a lesser extent Melbourne.

Mr Medcraft made headlines and raised eyebrows in an interview on the ABC where he became the first regulator to openly warn of a property bubble.

"History has shown that often you don't know you're in a bubble until it's over but you can look at history and look at historical averages and one can draw their own conclusions," Mr Medcraft told The World Today.

At the time, Mr Medcraft's comments about history's habit of repeating itself were criticised, with comments urging him to produce the evidence.

Now the head of Treasury John Fraser has weighed in.

He not only warned of a bubble, but said there was
unequivocal evidence that one existed.

Mr Fraser's unexpectedly blunt assessment at Senate Estimates took many observers by surprise.

"When you look at the housing price bubble evidence, it's unequivocally the case in Sydney. Unequivocally," Mr Fraser said.

"Frankly, whatever the data says, just casual observation can tell you it's the case."

Mr Fraser's straight talk on what could be a dangerous bubble gives some long-awaited support - indeed credibility - to warnings in recent months from top economists, property analysts and highly regarded observers in the business media.

There has been some discussion recently about property investing being such a no brainer for those who are smart enough or for those who are diligent in their methodology and commitment etc etc. It doesn't take any brains at all to get a loan and buy an IP in a rising market. It has very little to do with 'smarts' and a lot to do with the complicity of political law changes created to placate the whinging populace mostly with keeping the status quo with negative gearing and allowing one to use their retirement savings to buy IP's, along with all the other baby boomer created laws and systems which mostly benefit them. (The influence of 'black' Chinese money on the bubble is another big factor, but that's another story....)

Unfortunately for the rest of society it is those who made and make the rules who have benefited most from the property bubble ie the baby boomer generation, through the various schemes brought into play over the years - mostly negative gearing and superannuation - the rule makers have been able to feather their collective nests at the expense of all other levels of society.

And no doubt it will be they who will whinge the loudest when it pops.

At least The Greens now have one decent policy???

The Greens have released Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) modelling that shows the Government could save $3 billion in four years by abolishing negative gearing.

The tax break allows investors to claim expenses for rental properties and reduce tax paid on any other income.

The Government has already ruled out winding it back, but Labor has left the door open to possible changes.

The PBO estimated the proposal would increase Government revenue by $42.5 billion over the period to 2024-25.

Greens senator Scott Ludlam said scrapping the measure was "long overdue".

"I don't think it's fair that low and middle income taxpayers should be
subsidising property investors
and that's really at the heart of why we're making this proposal," he said.