The future of Australian property prices

CanOz · 23 October 2012

young-gun said:
Both Brisbane. And yeah alot of inv. are long haul, but they would only approach her if they were ready/thinking about selling. Needless to say she is starting to stress as she isn't making anywhere near the money she was use to. I guess the point she was making is that if they want to sell, they need to be prepared to discount heavily from their original expectations.

I was also talking to a commercial agent the other day(I don't know him personally) and was chatting about how that area was going. He said in the peak of boom time he was getting about 40 calls a day re industrial/commercial property, now he's lucky to get 4 a day. Prices have plateaued but don't seem to be dropping much. There is so much stock on the market in an area I am looking at for both lease and sale it's crazy. I would have thought that would have had a lot more downward pressure on prices. He said I could expect a brand new 250sq shed to sit for upto 6 months before leasing.

I was also talking to a mate in Brisbane that has several investment properties and a demolition business. He was saying that its a buyers market no doubt! He was saying some big developments were selling at almost half their COST.

Vixs · 23 October 2012

explod said:
As property prices were rising there was a lot of enthusiasm, does this mean perhaps property is collapsing and no one wants to push that horror.

I'd bet that plays a part mate. There's no light in the immediate future as far as can be seen, so the good news is all in the future, yet to be written.

It definitely feels a lot better planning and pondering about a brighter future than a sh*tty tomorrow. I do know what you mean about the excitement and stimulation of the short term results and outcomes, however I think there has been some gloom descend and the conversation reflects that.

Julia · 23 October 2012

I've previously commented on properties in my area which have been for sale since the peak of the bubble, many bought with 100% borrowed money.
Just noticed today that one of these, for which the asking price was $550,000, has now been reduced to $510,000.
That's a substantial drop but I think it will have to fall further to achieve a sale.
This just reinforces the trend, at least here, where the agents are doing it very tough indeed.

I also noticed a couple of properties which went up for sale a few months agowith a sign outside for www.owner.com.au, in an attempt to avoid paying agent commission, have now succumbed to employing an agent.

Tink · 24 October 2012

Yes explod, whatever happened to Robots, Trainspotter, and the others that used to pop in here...
Market Snapshot
http://apm.domain.com.au/Research/AuctionResults/

Well, Spring is here, the time of year when buyers are out and about...
As I have said, I know a few that have bought.
Footscray, North Melbourne, Kensington etc have all taken off the last few years.
Its not my side of town, but bargains were to be found

My opinion.

damien275x · 24 October 2012

Yes spring has arrived and the sales aren't so great. Week one they were saying the Melb clearance rate was 66%, then steady at 65, and a week later Ross Greenwood was on channel 9 saying they were a "strong 62%" What a clown.

Also correct me if I am wrong but when you borrow money you are generally at the mercy of the interest rate for the entire loan (25 to 30 years) so why are "Low interest rates" a good time to buy? I can't see any point in history were they remain low for over 10 years without prices going nowhere!

From 2008 to 2012 prices are about the same, and my wage goes up 3%ish give or take per annum, so wages are catching up finally. But I still won't buy for a few years, they're blaming Europe at the moment but what about USA they are up **** creek too

white_goodman · 24 October 2012

can someone link me to that site which shows properties which have been discounted?

cheers

young-gun · 24 October 2012

white_goodman said:
can someone link me to that site which shows properties which have been discounted?

cheers

Miss Hale knows about it, I don't have it bookmarked. It's quite un-reliable though, and seems a bit sketchy. The time period and discounts get 'reset' for some reason quite often.

againsthegrain · 24 October 2012

HTML:

http://www.refindhouseprices.com/

might be the one

white_goodman · 24 October 2012

againsthegrain said:
HTML:

http://www.refindhouseprices.com/

might be the one

cheers

MrBurns · 24 October 2012

Just had a good conversation with one who knows, the commercial market, in Melbourne at least, is on it's knees.........

Klogg · 24 October 2012

MrBurns said:
Just had a good conversation with one who knows, the commercial market, in Melbourne at least, is on it's knees.........

I would think that with retail not being able to afford the rent, the yield will drop, and prices soon after...

CanOz · 24 October 2012

Klogg said:
I would think that with retail not being able to afford the rent, the yield will drop, and prices soon after...

Would it not be more of a lack of commercial space demand driving prices lower?

CanOz

MrBurns · 24 October 2012

CanOz said:
Would it not be more of a lack of commercial space demand driving prices lower?

CanOz

There are tenants out there but it's a lack of finance and general disinterest.

Private financiers are playing hard ball with existing clients but banks are being tolerant ....for now.

Miss Hale · 24 October 2012

againsthegrain said:
HTML:

http://www.refindhouseprices.com/

might be the one

Yes, that's the one I use. It is unreliable though in that it crashes from time to time and all the historical data is lost and it has to start from scratch again. If I was a conspiracy theorist I would say it gets hacked.

againsthegrain · 25 October 2012

Miss Hale said:
Yes, that's the one I use. It is unreliable though in that it crashes from time to time and all the historical data is lost and it has to start from scratch again. If I was a conspiracy theorist I would say it gets hacked.

or maybye its just on a cheap host that crashes alot and loses data which is not backed up on regular basis so they often have to start from a much older database version or scratch

Ijustnewit · 1 November 2012

Tas house prices "worst in years"

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-11-01/tas-house-prices-27worst-in-years27/4346482?section=tas

young-gun · 1 November 2012

properties are expensive, investment returns are poor, very poor. it would need to correct itself a long way before I consider anything

baby_swallow · 6 November 2012

Just before rate announcement, housing spruikers cry poor.
(trying to influence RBA decision???).

In SMH today......

House prices continue to struggle

The enticement of the lowest interest rates since the GFC has done little to help house prices, official data shows.
The Australian house price index rose by just 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, following a 0.5 per cent rise in the second quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Over the year to September, they grew 0.3 per cent following a 2.1 per cent drop.
Economists polled by Bloomberg expected a 1 per cent rise in the quarter, amid firmer auction clearance rates and lower interest rates. In the year to September, analysts forecast a 0.8 per cent rise.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...to-struggle-20121106-28v70.html#ixzz2BP133aCn

PS:
I thought we are in a housing price bubble and it need to cool down to make it more affordable for
homebuyers. But this article is saying otherwise.
BTW, the recent change to the FHOG 1/10/2012 (ie: $15000 grant & free stamp duty for new homes in NSW), the builders and developers just increased the prices of new homes by more than $30K in the past few weeks.

young-gun · 6 November 2012

baby_swallow said:
PS:
I thought we are in a housing price bubble and it need to cool down to make it more affordable for
homebuyers. But this article is saying otherwise.
BTW, the recent change to the FHOG 1/10/2012 (ie: $15000 grant & free stamp duty for new homes in NSW), the builders and developers just increased the prices of new homes by more than $30K in the past few weeks.

If that's true they are only shooting themselves in the foot.

My wife works for in the recruitment industry, never before has she seen so many unemployed people coming through the office doors. Not that it seems to be reflected in the unemployment numbers, then again that may just be due to ABS admittedly not calculating very accurately. The construction industry appears to be slowing rapidly from what I can see here in brisbane. Our whole company has a strict over-time ban in place.

Perhaps unemployment is just the flavour of the month for media outlets. At the end of the day a rate cut signals a struggling economy. The perfect storm is still brewing, mining boom slowdown, sluggish global economy, unemployment although not evident in the figures appears to be on the rise just by talking to a lot of people. The end of problems is endless.

However I am meeting with a guy soon who claims he has bought 3 positively geared properties in the past 12 months, so very interested in speaking to him. There may still be some opportunities if you can buy at substantially reduced prices.

white_goodman · 6 November 2012

young-gun said:
However I am meeting with a guy soon who claims he has bought 3 positively geared properties in the past 12 months, so very interested in speaking to him. There may still be some opportunities if you can buy at substantially reduced prices.

problem is under that scenario what would the lending standards be.. need to be heavy in cash

The future of Australian property prices

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

Vixs

Julia

In Memoriam

Tink

damien275x

white_goodman

BOC

young-gun

againsthegrain

white_goodman

BOC

MrBurns

Klogg

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

MrBurns

Miss Hale

againsthegrain

Ijustnewit

young-gun

baby_swallow

young-gun

white_goodman

BOC

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