The future of Australian property prices

young-gun said:

2. A slow burn, where prices remain stagnant for decades until wages catch up, and all debt has been deleveraged.

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The ideal here from the RBA's perspective is, in the long term, a narrow window between stagnant nominal prices and stagnant real prices.

A similar kind of slow burn is the objective for western world debt.

young-gun said:

There is 2 ways the market is going from here.

1. A crash of epic proportions as seen in a large majority of developed nations.
2. A slow burn, where prices remain stagnant for decades until wages catch up, and all debt has been deleveraged.

There simply isn't room for growth in house prices anymore, not only do people not want to pay these prices, they simply can't afford to. Those that can afford to have now been sucked into the market with grants, and squeezed of every cent to keep prices artificially inflated (and i really feel for them) and now there is now one left.

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True enough. Anecdotally only of course, I've seen growing instances of negative equity recently.
But this discussion is making one vital omission, i.e. that most people buy a home to live in for reasons little related to whether or not it is going to increase in value.
The drive for owning one's home shouldn't be underestimated imo.

Finally we get some clear information as to what property prices are really doing. The ABS are publishing 'House Price Indexes'. It won't be distorted or massaged by self interested Real Estate Agents any more. Once the ABS get themselves fully set up with the statistics, there will be a chance to see decent charts of property prices so we will really know where we stand.




(quoting the Australian Bureau of Statistics)

MARCH KEY POINTS


ESTABLISHED HOUSE PRICES

Quarterly Changes

Preliminary estimates show the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.1% in the March quarter 2012.
The capital city indexes fell in Melbourne (-2.2%), Sydney (-1.8%), Adelaide (-0.9%) and Hobart (-2.7%) and rose in Perth (+1.1%), Brisbane (+0.4%), Canberra (+1.2%) and Darwin (+4.4%).



Annual Changes (March Quarter 2011 to March Quarter 2012)

Preliminary estimates show that the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 4.5% in the year to the March quarter 2012.
Annually, house prices fell in Hobart (-6.7%), Melbourne (-6.6%), Sydney (-4.6%), Adelaide (-3.8%), Brisbane (-3.7%), Perth (-1.7%), and Canberra (-0.5%) and rose in Darwin (+3.5%).



NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE (QUARTER) Release Date
June 2012 1 August 2012
September 2012 6 November 2012
December 2012 5 February 2013
March 2013 7 May 2013



CHANGES IN THE NEXT ISSUE

The established house price index currently covers detached houses in the eight capital cities. Since 2010, work has been underway to develop a price index for other dwellings in the capital cities. The June quarter 2012 issue of this publication will include a feature article which provides some information about the development of this new experimental price index. A data cube will be provided with a time series of the other dwellings price index and a total measure of detached houses and other dwellings: the All dwellings price index.


REVISIONS

Estimates for the two most recent quarters of the HPI series are preliminary and subject to revision (see paragraphs 15 to 19 of the Explanatory Notes).

The series for the median price of established house transfers (unstratified) and the number of established house transfers (published in Tables 7 and 8 respectively) are also subject to revision as the ABS receives more data from the Valuers-General. This quarter, the completion of a review of ABS processes has led to a change in the practice of revising Tables 7 and 8. In the past, these tables were revised as necessary throughout the whole time series. From the March quarter 2012 onwards (with the exception of revisions for Canberra), the usual practice will be to update only the most recent eight quarters of published figures. For the March quarter 2012, however, the review has also led to revisions to Canberra beyond the most recent eight quarters.

Thats exactly right Julia.
Renting has always been the easy option for many, and years just roll into the next.
Then when they retire, they have rent to juggle as well as everything else.
I am not saying this will happen to the posters on here, just how some people go about things.

Young gun, your friend that sold that house after a divorce, I am sure he would have still made money depending on how long he was living in it.
How much did he buy it for?

Well I must say I have never worried about the house I am living in whether the value goes up and down.

drsmith said:

The ideal here from the RBA's perspective is, in the long term, a narrow window between stagnant nominal prices and stagnant real prices.

A similar kind of slow burn is the objective for western world debt.

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Unfortunately I think you're right. It's hard to see anything crashing real hard and fast with all the central banks on edge, and pumping so much money into markets etc. There needs to be something that takes everyone by surprise.

I still believe a full blown crash, although disastrous, would be better for the economy long term, and although alot of people would be affected negatively, it would be a better outcome and allow recovery to occur faster. jmo.

Julia said:

True enough. Anecdotally only of course, I've seen growing instances of negative equity recently.
But this discussion is making one vital omission, i.e. that most people buy a home to live in for reasons little related to whether or not it is going to increase in value.
The drive for owning one's home shouldn't be underestimated imo.

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True. However I look at my circumstance, and i would love nothing more than to own my own home. There is a sense of accomplishment and pride attached to owning your own home. However there a few people my age willing to commit, and as stated simply can't afford to. Everyone is travelling and living their lives.

Home owners and speculators alike, I think that the money is gone, as alot would have been burnt from the gfc, and other boomers already leveraged to the hilt, unable to tap anymore equity as prices remain subdued.

Tink said:

Young gun, your friend that sold that house after a divorce, I am sure he would have still made money depending on how long he was living in it.
How much did he buy it for?

Well I must say I have never worried about the house I am living in whether the value goes up and down.

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He bought along time ago tink and yes, he still made money.

Would you be of the same opinion if you bought 2 years ago at 95%-100% LVR?(Whether you believe you personally would actually obtain a loan at 95% LVR is irrelevant, simply a hypothetical.)

It's ok for those that bought way back when to say they aren't bothered by what prices are doing, but it's a different story for a lot of others.

young-gun said:

Unfortunately I think you're right. It's hard to see anything crashing real hard and fast with all the central banks on edge, and pumping so much money into markets etc. There needs to be something that takes everyone by surprise.

I still believe a full blown crash, although disastrous, would be better for the economy long term, and although alot of people would be affected negatively, it would be a better outcome and allow recovery to occur faster. jmo.



True. However I look at my circumstance, and i would love nothing more than to own my own home. There is a sense of accomplishment and pride attached to owning your own home. However there a few people my age willing to commit, and as stated simply can't afford to. Everyone is travelling and living their lives.

Home owners and speculators alike, I think that the money is gone, as alot would have been burnt from the gfc, and other boomers already leveraged to the hilt, unable to tap anymore equity as prices remain subdued.



He bought along time ago tink and yes, he still made money.

Would you be of the same opinion if you bought 2 years ago at 95%-100% LVR?(Whether you believe you personally would actually obtain a loan at 95% LVR is irrelevant, simply a hypothetical.)

It's ok for those that bought way back when to say they aren't bothered by what prices are doing, but it's a different story for a lot of others.

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cha ching. your onto something in the bit I bolded. Me and my partner made the decision to not spend big on travelling just yet. We bought our house in march, things are going great. The value of our purchase has not tanked, if I got a valuer out I actually think It would poll higher then our price we paid (ive been working away on it over most weekends. weve looked at similar properties in the same neighbourhood priced higher then ours) We purchased affordably .... and got a 3bdrm brick and tile 300m from a decent school. backing onto a park, 200m from shops and 1km from a train station. Quiet street with nice neighbours. Its perfect for us.

but the cost of living is too much, omg how are we ever going to survive !!! ...

Atm were on track with our repayments to be mortgage free in ... 6 years ... which will make us mortage free in our 20's. Seriously ... its really ... really ... not ... hard.

You should have a look around young gun, you'd be surprised at what you can buy very affordably. Having said all that, we do have friends that are purchasing a house atm and I think they are overpaying and stretching themselves. They'll be able to stay on top of it while there both working, but once a baby comes along or anything else that puts one of them out of work they'll be in trouble. The size of the mortgage they are taking on is going to take them 20 + years to clear anyway. There doing that because they want to live in a particular suburb and refuse the notion of buying anywhere else. They want there dream house now they dont consider at all the cost it will have on them in the long run.

I cant help but think your going to far by blanketing real estate entirely and saying there is nothing worth purchasing. There are plenty of good deals around if you look for them imo.

Good on you RandR and good luck, exactly right, cha-ching.

As said, we have all had to make sacrifices.

RandR said:

cha ching. your onto something in the bit I bolded. Me and my partner made the decision to not spend big on travelling just yet. We bought our house in march, things are going great. The value of our purchase has not tanked, if I got a valuer out I actually think It would poll higher then our price we paid (ive been working away on it over most weekends. weve looked at similar properties in the same neighbourhood priced higher then ours) We purchased affordably .... and got a 3bdrm brick and tile 300m from a decent school. backing onto a park, 200m from shops and 1km from a train station. Quiet street with nice neighbours. Its perfect for us.

but the cost of living is too much, omg how are we ever going to survive !!! ...

Atm were on track with our repayments to be mortgage free in ... 6 years ... which will make us mortage free in our 20's. Seriously ... its really ... really ... not ... hard.

You should have a look around young gun, you'd be surprised at what you can buy very affordably. Having said all that, we do have friends that are purchasing a house atm and I think they are overpaying and stretching themselves. They'll be able to stay on top of it while there both working, but once a baby comes along or anything else that puts one of them out of work they'll be in trouble. The size of the mortgage they are taking on is going to take them 20 + years to clear anyway. There doing that because they want to live in a particular suburb and refuse the notion of buying anywhere else. They want there dream house now they dont consider at all the cost it will have on them in the long run.

I cant help but think your going to far by blanketing real estate entirely and saying there is nothing worth purchasing. There are plenty of good deals around if you look for them imo.

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Haha, well aren't the bulls just going to love you.

I have had a look around, and regardless of what is deemed 'affordable' I still don't wish to buy. I would much rather see the world while we're young. We're getting married in sept so alot of our money is going to that also.

We're are able to get into the market, but don't believe now is the best time, both financially and for lifestyle reasons.

I am also well aware that it "really...really...isn't...hard". But the fact is I think you have made a poor investment decision. However this comes back to Julia's point of home ownership. You may be happy to just own your own home regardless of what the price does, so that you have a place to call your own, which is perfectly understandable as I have the same desire. However I personally prefer to be a little less reckless with my money, and am happy to wait and see how things pan out.

Agree with you completely about people wanting the dream home right now, they aren't doing themselves any favours.

At the end of the day I have a long term plan, and that means scrutinizing every big financial move I make while I'm young. At this current point in time everything is telling me don't buy. jmo.

When you look at how much work materials etc go into producing a house then look at the output of most. do you really have to wonder why people have to work hard make sacrifices etc. most would be lucky to have the same output in a lifetime to think it should take less to pay back with interest is nuts. no one is gonna give you there hard earned output for nothing. you are buying an asset that has more in it than you can produce ofcourse its gonna be unaffordable and rightly so. go out there build a house and then see if your willing to part with it for the sorts of prices you guys think is fair value.

young-gun said:

Haha, well aren't the bulls just going to love you.

I have had a look around, and regardless of what is deemed 'affordable' I still don't wish to buy. I would much rather see the world while we're young. We're getting married in sept so alot of our money is going to that also.

We're are able to get into the market, but don't believe now is the best time, both financially and for lifestyle reasons.
I am also well aware that it "really...really...isn't...hard". But the fact is I think you have made a poor investment decision. However this comes back to Julia's point of home ownership. You may be happy to just own your own home regardless of what the price does, so that you have a place to call your own, which is perfectly understandable as I have the same desire. However I personally prefer to be a little less reckless with my money, and am happy to wait and see how things pan out.

Agree with you completely about people wanting the dream home right now, they aren't doing themselves any favours.

At the end of the day I have a long term plan, and that means scrutinizing every big financial move I make while I'm young. At this current point in time everything is telling me don't buy. jmo.

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So its not that housing is unnafordable, your just making the conscious decision not to purchase, to spend your money elsewhere for now. I envy any long term travelling you get to do as a result Were just prioritizing money spent differently.

A PPOR is not an investment.... it really is a zero sum game for 95% of ppor property. People that delude themselves otherwise as a result of market rise and falls just arnt thinking. If I were looking upon a house to live in purely from an investment decision I would have purchased a property with the possibility of taking advantage of the no capital gains to its utmost effect. Something with the zoning to develop or simply a slice of acreage as close to a capital city as can be affordably found.

We havnt done that. Weve looked upon our housing as a neccesary cost in life. One that must be faced and paid. But something you must enjoy and be happy living on. Wether you decide the path of least resistence is to rent or buy a particular property is entirely up to you. Weve done the numbers and were very comfortable with the decision to purchase. In a few short years the 'cost' of our housing is going to be absolutely neglible and financially close to nothing. Thats the big winner for us. Which renders any fluctuations in the market value of property relatively meaningless to us. Why bother to worry about the dollar figure when the cost of holding will be so insignificant and the comparitive value of the property in comparison to others will remain regardless of price point, whether that moves up or indeed down.

im sparticus said:

go out there build a house and then see if your willing to part with it for the sorts of prices you guys think is fair value.

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hahaha. So you think prices can't crash because you aren't willing to part with your properties for any less than you paid? Well done sparticus, well done. The cost of building a house is negligible, it's the land that is ridiculous.

RandR said:

So its not that housing is unnafordable, your just making the conscious decision not to purchase, to spend your money elsewhere for now. I envy any long term travelling you get to do as a result Were just prioritizing money spent differently.

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It isn't unaffordable for us personally, but we are in a rather fortunate position, both with good jobs no kids and not so much as a dollar of debt to our names. If we want/need something we either pay cash or go without.

A PPOR is not an investment.... it really is a zero sum game for 95% of ppor property. People that delude themselves otherwise as a result of market rise and falls just arnt thinking. If I were looking upon a house to live in purely from an investment decision I would have purchased a property with the possibility of taking advantage of the no capital gains to its utmost effect. Something with the zoning to develop or simply a slice of acreage as close to a capital city as can be affordably found.

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Simply different perspectives. When dealing with large sums of money such as purchasing a property, I personally would rather position myself to not only profit from the satisfaction of owning my own place, but also know that my money is working for me at the same time. I can't see my money working for me in this current market.

I personally will wait for it to play out, save more and mroe of a deposit, and when we do buy will be looking at a four bedroom house close to shops and preferred schools as you have done. People will scoff at the 4 bedroom house idea but it's a smart move, as in the future we will not have to spend money moving and upgrading as we already know we want x amount of children. I would rather pay the little extra and save the hassle in say 4-8 years time when our family is underway. Simply preparing long term.

We havnt done that. Weve looked upon our housing as a neccesary cost in life. One that must be faced and paid. But something you must enjoy and be happy living on. Wether you decide the path of least resistence is to rent or buy a particular property is entirely up to you. Weve done the numbers and were very comfortable with the decision to purchase. In a few short years the 'cost' of our housing is going to be absolutely neglible and financially close to nothing. Thats the big winner for us.

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Well so long as you're happy with your decision and aren't concerned about price movements then absolutely you'
re onto a winner. I just want to point out that in my experience there are very few people out there that have the unique frame of mind that you do at our age. Being that most aren't willing to commit to a home loan at such a young age, and majority of people I know believe housing to be an appreciating asset and investment.

If you haven't had been working on your house on weekends, im assuming you have been cleaning up gardens, perhaps painting, maybe a few bits n pieces here n there. Do you believe your property would be worth what you paid for it? Seems tough to be putting work into a house just to hold its original price. On the other hand it's always nice to step back and look at what you have achieved, not to mention come home to a nice looking house every night.

Anyone watching the block? There in melbourne right?

young-gun said:

Unfortunately I think you're right. It's hard to see anything crashing real hard and fast with all the central banks on edge, and pumping so much money into markets etc. There needs to be something that takes everyone by surprise.

I still believe a full blown crash, although disastrous, would be better for the economy long term, and although alot of people would be affected negatively, it would be a better outcome and allow recovery to occur faster. jmo.

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Significantly higher unemployment could be a trigger if it was to occur.

Something that savages household income.

RandR said:

cha ching. your onto something in the bit I bolded. Me and my partner made the decision to not spend big on travelling just yet. We bought our house in march, things are going great. The value of our purchase has not tanked, if I got a valuer out I actually think It would poll higher then our price we paid (ive been working away on it over most weekends. weve looked at similar properties in the same neighbourhood priced higher then ours) We purchased affordably .... and got a 3bdrm brick and tile 300m from a decent school. backing onto a park, 200m from shops and 1km from a train station. Quiet street with nice neighbours. Its perfect for us.

but the cost of living is too much, omg how are we ever going to survive !!! ...

Atm were on track with our repayments to be mortgage free in ... 6 years ... which will make us mortage free in our 20's. Seriously ... its really ... really ... not ... hard.

You should have a look around young gun, you'd be surprised at what you can buy very affordably. Having said all that, we do have friends that are purchasing a house atm and I think they are overpaying and stretching themselves. They'll be able to stay on top of it while there both working, but once a baby comes along or anything else that puts one of them out of work they'll be in trouble. The size of the mortgage they are taking on is going to take them 20 + years to clear anyway. There doing that because they want to live in a particular suburb and refuse the notion of buying anywhere else. They want there dream house now they dont consider at all the cost it will have on them in the long run.

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Great post, RandR. It sounds as though you've really thought through your decision and bought affordably.
I wish you many happy years of home ownership. Imo there's simply nothing that can equal that sense of security and independence owning your own home brings.

Tink said:

Good on you RandR and good luck, exactly right, cha-ching.

As said, we have all had to make sacrifices.

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Indeed. I just can't believe the unrealistic aspirations of so many young people who say they 'can't afford to buy a house". I'm not surprised they can't afford it when their demands include four bedrooms plus study, three bathrooms plus the pretentiously named 'media room'. And it has to be in an inner suburb close to everything.
And those silly people who take on an LVR of up to 100% are obviously just asking for trouble.

I suppose it's yet another symptom of the "I want it and I want it now" society, regardless of any sense of financial propriety.

young-gun said:

Haha, well aren't the bulls just going to love you.

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Is that sarcasm really necessary, young gun? RandR has made his choice which seems to be thoughtfully arrived at and I can see no evidence that he and his partner are following this choice to fall in with 'the bulls' or for any reason other than their own conclusion that it's what they want now and for the future.

I have had a look around, and regardless of what is deemed 'affordable' I still don't wish to buy. I would much rather see the world while we're young. We're getting married in sept so alot of our money is going to that also.

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Fine. That's your choice which expresses your priorities. Many people would question "a lot of your money going to a wedding" rather than a house deposit, but whatever means most to you is all that matters.

Let's just all respect one another's choices.

Julia you just dont get it young-gun is gonna make the smartest of all his moves and wait for the crash then he will be able to purchase his dream house as a four bdr in popular suburb for the todays price of a cheapy this way he will also save on transaction cost of upgrading. dont you see how smart he is. with all the money he is saving he can afford to splash out on his other smart move (getting married)


Looks like the block achieved 100% auction clearance rate and all selling well above reserve, doesnt exactly follow the picture the melbournians are trying to paint. great results considering the poor results of the lat few shows the block might be a little leading indicator. loved how they turned the roofs into usable entertaining space and views every house thats positioned correctly should be doing that i know i will be from now on.

Lots of green shoots around my best guess is the daily index never prints lows lower than it already has if i was waiting for price defation before entering it woud be now to 12 months ago might be stagnant wont be falling further but my guess is slow growth on par with inflation. wait to see strong gains in the figures and youve already missed your chance. my guess and actually what ive noticed of late is things will creep away unnoticed.

Thats a great post Julia and well said.

I always thought you found it unaffordable, young gun, and that was the reason you couldnt purchase a home, but you are making the decision not to buy a home, travelling and waiting for a 4 bedroom house etc.
No one I know started like that, and if it works out for you, good luck.

Having your own home is one of the best things, imo, but as said, everyone is entitled to their views.

Wonder if the TV station slipped a few bucks into the help the sale to get the price up in a depressed market, and therefore keep the ratings up, so they can claim the show is the best and charge more for advertising and get their money back.

Julia said:

I'm not surprised they can't afford it when their demands include four bedrooms plus study, three bathrooms plus the pretentiously named 'media room'. And it has to be in an inner suburb close to everything.
And those silly people who take on an LVR of up to 100% are obviously just asking for trouble.

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I don't know if this is in reference to my 4 bedroom comment, but if it is I never said anything about studies bathrooms and media rooms. It would be quite easy to buy a 4 bedroom house if prices continue to deflate for a reasonable price. Without all the bells and whistles of course. Catering for a future family is most certainly not greedy.

Is that sarcasm really necessary, young gun? RandR has made his choice which seems to be thoughtfully arrived at and I can see no evidence that he and his partner are following this choice to fall in with 'the bulls' or for any reason other than their own conclusion that it's what they want now and for the future.

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Nothing wrong with a bit of sarcasm. I understand he has made a choice, and personally I think I have been more than understanding. But the fact is, the thread topic isn't "does buying/owning your own home give you that warm fuzzing feeling inside". It's the future of prices. And as is quite evident I think they are going down, so I'm sticking to my guns, and regardless of what reasons are behind the purchase, I believe it was a poor investment decision.

Randr may not be bullish on property, but the steps he is taking are what all the bulls are claiming are the steps to success. It blows me away that people are still trying to apply the same tactics that may have worked back in the day, to today. Out with the old, in with the new.

Fine. That's your choice which expresses your priorities. Many people would question "a lot of your money going to a wedding" rather than a house deposit, but whatever means most to you is all that matters.

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Agree.

Oh and I also already deleted the bit about people questioning whether getting married before buying a house is a smart move, and the answer is yes it is at the moment. Get all the necessities out of the way and paid for in full while prices are falling, have the kitty ready to go when the time is right to pounce. Some don't view marriage as a necessity, each to their own, I'm not going into that here.

im sparticus said:

Julia you just dont get it young-gun is gonna make the smartest of all his moves and wait for the crash then he will be able to purchase his dream house as a four bdr in popular suburb for the todays price of a cheapy this way he will also save on transaction cost of upgrading. dont you see how smart he is. with all the money he is saving he can afford to splash out on his other smart move (getting married)

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I can't wait until the day that your arguments turn to " I'm doing really well, My property portfolio has only lost 300k on paper, good compared to most."

Looks like the block achieved 100% auction clearance rate and all selling well above reserve, doesnt exactly follow the picture the melbournians are trying to paint. great results considering the poor results of the lat few shows the block might be a little leading indicator. loved how they turned the roofs into usable entertaining space and views every house thats positioned correctly should be doing that i know i will be from now on.

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Ah great now your using 'reality' Tv shows to support your theories. I suppose you'll next be quoting Lara bingle on her thoughts?

Lots of green shoots around my best guess is the daily index never prints lows lower than it already has if i was waiting for price defation before entering it woud be now to 12 months ago might be stagnant wont be falling further but my guess is slow growth on par with inflation. wait to see strong gains in the figures and youve already missed your chance. my guess and actually what ive noticed of late is things will creep away unnoticed.

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Turns out your beloved index is a sham. Not surprised really. Sorry to bring down your last remaining glimmer of hope:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/201...RSS_DAILY_MAILCHIMP_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email.

I will happily concede when ABS figures reflect RPData.

Tink said:

I always thought you found it unaffordable, young gun, and that was the reason you couldnt purchase a home, but you are making the decision not to buy a home, travelling and waiting for a 4 bedroom house etc.
No one I know started like that, and if it works out for you, good luck.

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No need to sugar coat it Tink, if you think it's a stupid idea just say People hear 4 bedroom and think lavish, ensuites, walk i robes pools etc. I will be looking at getting a stock standard 4 bedroom house at a good price when the time comes. It may be a couple 10's of thousands more, but if it is going to save the cost of moving/upgrading later which would no doubt equate to over 20k with agents fees and stamp duty, isn't it a long term smart financial move? So long as I'm not breaking the bank of course. I don't see anything wrong with it.

Having your own home is one of the best things, imo, but as said, everyone is entitled to their views.

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I completely agree home ownership is a great feeling, and I can't wait for the day I get to start working on my own home again on weekends as Randr does.

Glen48 said:

Wonder if the TV station slipped a few bucks into the help the sale to get the price up in a depressed market, and therefore keep the ratings up, so they can claim the show is the best and charge more for advertising and get their money back.

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Wouldn't surprise me at all, I am very skeptical of the results. I havent officially seen them but have heard they are through the roof.

Glen48 said:

Wonder if the TV station slipped a few bucks into the help the sale to get the price up in a depressed market, and therefore keep the ratings up, so they can claim the show is the best and charge more for advertising and get their money back.

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Yes its all a big conspiracy theory its funny when prices were down younggun and friends were more than happy to quote the index now they are up its a sham hear we go again.

Ive seen young-gun quote uneployment figures to support his agrument then the minute unemployment is down its no longer relavant. you guys need to get some consistancy in your argument i hate to think what thread followers must be thinking of you guys.

Talk about a bad case of denial. prices depressed just as you wished and you still cant make a move doubt you will ever be able to pull the trigger your always gonna find a reason not to no matter how irrational.

Scm hypothetical sinks further in the red mel today 580. He is now 2% down who would have thaught he just might have nailed the bottom.