The future of Australian property prices

[bellenuit]

I'm not sure about the 1200 people a week. That sounds like a copy and paste job from 2007 numbers.

Actually the latest figures confirm that number for WA. Today's "The West Australian" quotes new ABS statistics that show WA's population increased by 64,300 over the previous year. That equates to 1,236 per week, up 2.9% on the previous year, making it the fastest growing state.

And that is before the Gorgon and other massive projects properly kick in.

If that rate is maintained, the population will double in just 25 years.

 

[kincella]

well well well...
Qld building industry estimated to lose 37000 jobs this year.....

what do you think they will do about that....
what happened to all the school building programs ??? did Qld miss out...or is it the same situation for the other states

hmmmmm....a stimulus might be on the cards....

I estimate there will be another boost to the fhb...at least for new homes...I am guessing $30,000 this time

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...ion-job-losses-loom-report-20100326-r231.html

Swan says there is no relief in sight for the housing shortage....and he is not critical of the negative gearing regime...as some in the community have suggested

the only way is for them to boost spending..since the states dont care....the states will care if they can get the kids money or FHB grant

http://www.theage.com.au/business/no-relief-in-sight-for-housing-shortage-swan-20100326-r24c.html

I predict there will not be many rate rises this year.....its actually all looking a bit shaky out there....lets wait unti August, see how bad things really are..if they have the first half year figures by then...
remember they did this last year....racked up the rate rises, told the world Aust was immune from the GFC...that we live in fairyland...lalala....then the mud hit the fan about August...and they hit the panick stations...
short memories for these cowboys....
4 rate rises in 6 months.....they never wait to see the affect. of last months rise...just up it again....because they believe its fairyland out here on the desert, middle of the ocean, little water, half a million immigrants pouring in each year.....just throw the arms up in the air....throw money out the window, or at dodgy schemes....

 

[satanoperca]

Kincella,

A 16% increase in RE Vic 2009 says to me everything is fine and the economy must be Bubbling along. The RBA trying to keep an economy from overheating through interest rate rises seems fair.

Unless, all is not what it seems and high property prices at any cost do not benefit greater society? But the facts are, RE is steaming along.

Cheers

Robots returns in days
as it seems that Australia is truly the land of sunshine and lollipops.
:70: :70: :70:

 

[kincella]

27000 Australian Businesses at risk of Collapse
due to the banks not lending....this is a dreadful state of affairs....what a joke the banks are...they will not provide finance for the businesses who employ the workers, but they will provide finance to home buyers, willy nilly, who look like they will lose their jobs.......
are the bankers, all collectively insane...or just like to follow each other like sheep over a cliff...or smoking some bad weed.....
and where is our fiscal team now.....
oh yes, there they are, hiding behind the scam of the furphy health system (which they could not be bothered to fix, whilst they wasted billions on insulation and the building schools rort)

......................................
More companies at risk of collapse, despite brighter outlook
Scott Murdoch From: The Australian March 27, 2010 12:00AM
A GROWING number of Australian firms are at risk of collapse this year despite the bright economic outlook and strong corporate profits, as the result of the major banks crunching the availability of credit to businesses.

A study conducted exclusively for The Weekend Australian by Dun & Bradstreet, the debt agency, found almost half of 55,000 companies examined had operated with a negative cashflow position last year.

The failure rate for firms with negative cashflow is 214 per cent higher than those with a positive position.

The negative result is expected to lead to an increased number of firms collapsing this year.

The D&B research showed there had been a 12 per cent increase in the number of firms with negative cashflow over the past two years.

It also found that more than 80 per cent of business failures were related to cashflow pressures rather than general business performance or poor sales.

extract only...read the full report..........
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...brighter-outlook/story-e6frg8zx-1225846168262

 

[kincella]

Satan....there are thousands of houses available, at very affordable prices...they are just not in the inner suburbs...they are within 30 minutes commuting travel to the CBD...
but since not everyone works in the CBD...there are plenty of happy house campers out there...with an affordable mortgage, enjoying their life

...you could have bought a house here in Toorak for $200,000 in 2000, which became $400,000 by 2004, then $660,000 in 2007, now $900,000 in 2009......sure some were in busy Williams Rd, or tucked behind in a quiet street....just a modest little 3 bdr, nothing over the top, on a small block....but they were not the workers cottages, you see all over the inner suburbs , where you would be hard pressed to swing a golf club in the living room

the people that did buy in 2000, with a mortgage of $180,000, are probably looking at a mortgage now of only $100,000 against a mv of $900,000....no wonder they seem a bit smug...not worried like some of you doomsdayers....
but being their home, a roof over their heads, they would not be too worried about where the price is..or where its going...
and with so much equity, they can afford to buy an investment property, start a business, help the kids into their own home....etc etc etc..
I really dont like your chances of picking up a cheap house in the inner suburbs, whilst waiting for that 20,30,40,50% drop in prices in the next decade or two...
well not unless the govnuts, suddenly removed all immigrants that came here in the past 5 years and sent them home....then it may be a different story....
its like waiting, watching the sky....looking for the flying pigs...

 

[satanoperca]

27000 Australian Businesses at risk of Collapse

That sounds a bit doom and gloomy. I would rather stay on the sunny side, RE up 16% in a year. Economy must be flying along as the money must be following to support such growth in an asset sector.

Satan....there are thousands of houses available, at very affordable prices...they are just not in the inner suburbs...they are within 30 minutes commuting travel to the CBD...

Agreed, there are thousands of affordable outer suburbs as inner suburbs are totally unaffordable, so the outer ones are perceived as affordable.

...you could have bought a house here in Toorak for $200,000 in 2000, which became $400,000 by 2004, then $660,000 in 2007, now $900,000 in 2009......sure some were in busy Williams Rd, or tucked behind in a quiet street....just a modest little 3 bdr, nothing over the top, on a small block....but they were not the workers cottages, you see all over the inner suburbs , where you would be hard pressed to swing a golf club in the living room

the people that did buy in 2000, with a mortgage of $180,000, are probably looking at a mortgage now of only $100,000 against a mv of $900,000....no wonder they seem a bit smug...not worried like some of you doomsdayers....

Well if that isn’t sunshine and lollipops I do not know what is. Fantastic news, a 5 fold increase in asset value in 10 years. Wonderful, so why the doom and gloom. As property has increased so much everyone must be prosperous and wealthy so a few business hitting the wall should not be any setback for the majority.

Who are these doomsdayers? I hope I’m not grouped into this category, as I’m I have been reborn a Debtaholic and have joined the masses.
Property is flying, unemployment is low, and Australia by passed the GFC, Labor Govnuts think that they will have the budget back in surplus faster than any previous govnuts, the share market is recovering strong.
Looks all good from where I sitting, maybe you have become a little sceptical that not all is what it seems.

Australia is the land of sunshine and lollipops.

 

[kincella]

just continuing my theory, that we are still in a recession, its a W shape, it has more legs than the 'fools' in govt and the media, would have you believe.

A replica of 2008-2009 is in front of us....this time with much larger implications, a bigger dip, and the economy is less able to recover than last year....you can only go for so long, before the last straw breaks the camels back.....
we have been in this recession for almost 3 years, businesses are hurting...bleeding...and the banks refusal to lend, is compounding the problem.....

underemploment is rising...all the people who now only have 20 hours not 40 hours work a week, full time jobs are being lost, while only part time jobs are replacing them

interest rates will not keep rising....well like last year, they do here in LA LA land, until it all comes to a screeching halt

will the govt try another disastrous stimulous package after all the waste with the insulation and school building rip off...or $900 to spend on imported TV and games from China...it will not work this time

will Toyota shut down for good with its disastrous problem, will other car makers follow....or will someone actually fix the problem....or is it too late for the damage to the Toyota brand name...how many hundreds of thousands of worker will be laid off

Will Obama start another war, to divert attention away from their economic woes...at home..

and who exactly is responsible for the rising house prices in Melb....some foreign buyers...who may panic and sell at the first hint of a hiccup back home....it happened with FNQ in the 80's with the Japanese
or will it be the other immigrants, who stack 12 adults into a 2 or 3 bdr house....with so many wage earners, they can afford to buy a million dollar mansion,on borrowed money....and turn the street into a slum, or a 5 bdr where they can fit in 20 adults .....welcome to fairyland...where fairytales are the order of the day

.............................extract...
Agency Marshall White says buyers from mainland China and Hong Kong kick-started Melbournes prestige property market last year and still account for a third of its sales.

Mandarin-speaking sales executive Michael Liu, who was hired by the agency to deal with overseas buyers, said a few streets in the eastern suburbs of Kew and Balwyn were now 80 per cent Chinese-owned.

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/.../comments/rudd_lets_china_buy_up_our_suburbs/

 

[MR.]

27000 Australian Businesses at risk of Collapse
due to the banks not lending....this is a dreadful state of affairs....what a joke the banks are...they will not provide finance for the businesses who employ the workers, but they will provide finance to home buyers, willy nilly, who look like they will lose their jobs.......
are the bankers, all collectively insane...or just like to follow each other like sheep over a cliff

Come on those 27000 odd businesses are booming, that's their fault they're a bit short on cash not any of us four. They shouldn't be expanding so much! What did they do? Buy new machinery with the extra 50% tax deductions last year?

Stuff lending extra money to business anyway! Didn't ya see business stock values crash last year! Business can go broke! Plenty... PLENTY of time to get back to them, it's all about locking individuals up into property loans they can't get away from just now. We are talking incomes for 30 years here, not some high risk, short term, business loan.

We four are in the top eight in the world! We will not have any trouble obtaining money from international money markets as we are AA. Ya seen our interest rates? We are set, we will not even need Rudbank. It's only 640 billion anyway!

Look if anything goes wrong with businesses in the mean time we've got plenty of room to move interest rates down. Not that we will lend more to business, that's risky, but guess what that does to property prices and payments? Can't lose! Unlike some of those other countries with lower interest rates.

All part of the plan........ All part of da plan.

Australia is the land of sunshine and lollipops.

 

[GumbyLearner]

just continuing my theory, that we are still in a recession, its a W shape, it has more legs than the 'fools' in govt and the media, would have you believe.

I have to agree kincella, W has looked likely for a while now. If the US market takes another big hit then the ripples of the second financial tsunami will reach Australia.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aVYxPZ56vjys
BY John Gittelsohn Bloomberg

Half of U.S. Home Loan Modifications Default Again

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- More than half of U.S. borrowers who received loan modifications on delinquent mortgages defaulted again after nine months, according to a federal report.

The re-default rate of loans modified in the first quarter of 2009 was 51.5 percent by the end of the year, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said in a joint report today. The figure, which measures payments at least 30 days late, climbed to 57.9 percent for changes made in the prior 12 months.

U.S. homeowners are struggling to make payments as depressed housing prices leave them owing more than their properties are worth. About 24 percent of properties with a mortgage were underwater in the fourth quarter, First American CoreLogic said last month. The median price of a U.S. home was $165,100 in February, down 28 percent from its peak in July 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Modifications are “clearly not working well and it’s not a surprise,” said Sam Khater, a senior economist at First American CoreLogic in Tysons Corner, Virginia. “It’s pointless to rewrite these loans because they’re underwater.”

The number of homes with mortgage payments at least 60 days late climbed 2.39 million in the fourth quarter, up 13.1 percent from the prior three months and 49.6 percent from the year earlier period, the quarterly Mortgage Metrics report said.

 

[MR.]

Gumby, what are you thinking?

post from kincella:

just continuing my theory, that we are still in a recession, its a W shape, it has more legs than the 'fools' in govt and the media, would have you believe.

W shape? ha ha ha You have to be kidding! We are on the up and up we have China!

A replica of 2008-2009 is in front of us....this time with much larger implications, a bigger dip, and the economy is less able to recover than last year....you can only go for so long, before the last straw breaks the camels back.....
we have been in this recession for almost 3 years, businesses are hurting...bleeding...and the banks refusal to lend, is compounding the problem.....

No way, plenty of time to fund any risky businesses. Who exactly has been in a recession for 3 years?

underemploment is rising...all the people who now only have 20 hours not 40 hours work a week, full time jobs are being lost, while only part time jobs are replacing them

The unemployment figures are fine. What are you insinuating exactly?

interest rates will not keep rising....well like last year, they do here in LA LA land, until it all comes to a screeching halt

Inflation, it’s all about inflation! Have to control it!
Don’t you do any homework?

Property is as safe as houses, don’t worry about that!
The following is just complete propaganda:
http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cach...+property+1989+crash&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

and who exactly is responsible for the rising house prices in Melb....some foreign buyers...who may panic and sell at the first hint of a hiccup back home....it happened with FNQ in the 80's with the Japanese

Ha ha ha, Rightttt, but the Japanese don’t own as much property now in the land of Oz. That just can’t happen again.
Think... Think.... people.

It is the Chinese not Japanese! China is booming, nothing’s going to stop China! No shortage of spending there! No bubbles either! Look at the price of metals including the coming iron ore contracts. That’s because China wants it.

China wants minerals, Oz gets rich, China gets rich, China sustains Oz property and jobs with ozeyssss!

 

[satanoperca]

conclusion....Melb and Vic country will grow the usual 10% pa.....Sydney a fraction less....I have no interest in the others...but it should be similar to the 10 year trend..

You have lost me.

just continuing my theory, that we are still in a recession, its a W shape, it has more legs than the 'fools' in govt and the media, would have you believe.

A replica of 2008-2009 is in front of us....this time with much larger implications, a bigger dip, and the economy is less able to recover than last year....you can only go for so long, before the last straw breaks the camels back.....

So dispite all the doom and gloom property is still going to increase, keeping the largest family asset growing. Not much else to live for, off to the bank Monday to get me some more leverage and increase PF.

Love living in this great country where the impossible is possible. We are truly different.

Cheers

 

[MACCA350]

What's going on Kincella? I'm starting to confuse you with a property bear

cheers

 

[kincella]

you are confused
....I am still a bull...interest rates will come down, more turmoil in the stock market....will drive investors to the safety of bricks and mortar....

now this should blow your mind...and might go some way to explaining why the Chinese are buying up here in OZ in droves....

China has been trying to curb their RE bubble...now they are
all buying up here, cause they are freezing the sale of land in China, and curbing investment in RE over there....
absolutley amazing....story

http://www.thedailybell.com/918/Imploding-China-Forbids-Sale-of-Land.html

 

[MACCA350]

China has been trying to curb their RE bubble...now they are

So they are being prudent and we are allowing them to screw up our market instead...........who's the bigger fool

cheers

 

[MR.]

you are confused
....I am still a bull...interest rates will come down

Interest rates will come down
Interest rates will come down
Interest rates will come down, I thi..
Interest rates will come down, they have too!
Interest rates will come down

now this should blow your mind...and might go some way to explaining why the Chinese are buying up here in OZ in droves....

they are all buying up here, cause they are freezing the sale of land in China

Really, that was fast! .... Since yesterday? .... Told you we have no fear with the Chinese, Geez they're quick.
The Chinese ban is going to be lifted when? Early April .... 2020? no think it was 2010. Long way away......

How's the home work going?
Did the RBA really lift interest rates four times because of the risks of inflation in general? Or could there have been other reasons?

Interest rates will come down
Interest rates will come down
Interest rates will come down

 

[MR.]

Where's that property graph?

Here it is... the graph which clearly explains how stupid people are!

Top line are the interest rates (x 3) so to see the movements.
The other two are the change in property volumes from the ABS.

Hmmm......

Interest rates will come down
Interest rates will come down
Interest rates will come down

 

[MR.]

Did someone bring up Japan?

Did Japan have any land supply problems? .... You've heard that one .... sorry ..... How many years was it .... Geez! ..... Fixed now though, right ?????

No worries, we have China

satanoperca, don't encourage him!

 

[tech/a]

Once every 3 mths I have a look here.
Always the same.

Those that have Property Investment love it and make full use of it.

Those who dont look for every reason why you shouldnt buy property and have and will most likely do so for their entire life.

Some of us continue to buy and sell freeholding what we can as we go and watch on threads like this as the battle rages.

The real reason of course for those who cant bring themselves to buy property is FEAR.
The greatest enemy of human growth.

 

[kincella]

agree tech/a
....some of us have been thinking about Oaklands in regional NSW where the Coalworks black coal mine may be a goer....and invigorate the locals in the surrounding towns....big opportunites there for anyone interested in housing and providing accommodation for the 650 expected workers

the other town is in Mortlake in regional Vic...with a planned resources project......
both projects will require loads of tradies, workers accommodation, and lots of people with some 'get up and go'
see extract at end of post

then look at those yanks, scary stuff, got a mortgage, no worries, we will re-write the books, make the taxpayers fund your mortgage....give you another free ride on main st....

......the following is a copy from another forum...no link...just google it...................


Obama administration expands mortgage assistance.

The new scheme would help people who owe more on their mortgages than what their homes are worth.

Negative equity in a home's value would be forgiven in this program, which would be subsidized by government funds obtained from tax payers.

"If we could just get to the target of helping 4 million borrowers, we could make a material difference in the markets," said Farrell.

So if you have worked hard to reduce your home loan - now you can work even harder to reduce everyone else's loan too.
..............................................................

extract only......MORTLAKE VIC

There is now nothing to rent in Terang, a larger town 25km south of Mortlake, and some workers are travelling as far as Camperdown, about 50km from Mortlake.

The demand has pushed rents in Terang up to $350 a week and modest homes in Mortlake that previously fetched $135-$140 a week are now being let for more than $320.

Farmers are opening up shearers' quarters, vacant cottages and other buildings to accommodate workers from the power station. Caravan parks are doing good trade.

It'll be great while it lasts, but it won't.

Most of the workers hail from the Melbourne area, the Latrobe Valley east of Melbourne, or interstate.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...l-housing-demand/story-e6frg9gx-1225844930660

 

[leedskalnin]

Once every 3 mths I have a look here.
Always the same.

Those that have Property Investment love it and make full use of it.

Those who dont look for every reason why you shouldnt buy property and have and will most likely do so for their entire life.

Some of us continue to buy and sell freeholding what we can as we go and watch on threads like this as the battle rages.

The real reason of course for those who cant bring themselves to buy property is FEAR.
The greatest enemy of human growth.

more like, there could well be a bargain to be made in months to come by holding off buying now. my guess only.