Australia has almost 1 million fewer households than assumed in government forecasts of a housing shortage, raising doubts about a supply shortfall cited as the main reason the nation will avoid a U.S.-style crash.
The Pacific nation had 7.8 million households, data released yesterday from the 2011 Census showed.
That compared with estimates of 8.7 million as of June 2010, according to the latest figures used by the National Housing Supply Council, a group created by the government in May 2008 to monitor housing demand, supply and affordability. Australia’s population also grew by 300,000 less than previously estimated, to 21.5 million.
“Young adults have gone back home with mum and dad, or are sharing houses,” said Collyer, who argues that Australia has an oversupply of housing based on statistics showing water usage and new building data. “Household sizes have gone up even more than people think, and the oversupply of housing will be revealed to be even worse than we thought.”
As more Australians live with friends or parents to combat falling affordability, the number of vacant dwellings rose to 934,471 in the 2011 census from 830,376 in 2006.
While home prices across Australia’s eight state capitals fell for a fifth consecutive quarter in the three months through March, the longest stretch of losses on record
Ok just an update of the scm hypothetical short mel at 571 1-6-12 syd 626 perth 551 bris 429. As of today he is unprofitable with mel at 574, for info syd 526 and perth 550 bris 460 ad 424 all states showing steady increases accept perth with the biggest jump being bris. looking at the index today was fun all green. looks like the peanut gallery just might have nailed the bottom but we will have to wait and see.
Ok just an update of the scm hypothetical short mel at 571 1-6-12 syd 626 perth 551 bris 429. As of today he is unprofitable with mel at 574, for info syd 526 and perth 550 bris 460 ad 424 all states showing steady increases accept perth with the biggest jump being bris. looking at the index today was fun all green. looks like the peanut gallery just might have nailed the bottom but we will have to wait and see.
House prices to fall in real terms for some time.
ONCE the booming engine room of growth, Australia's housing sector is now in a crumpled heap and is holding back the country's otherwise stellar economic performance.
New housing construction fell 12.6 per cent*in the first quarter of 2012 from the prior quarter and plunged 25 per cent*on year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today. It was the fourth consecutive quarterly fall and the biggest since September 2010.
Economists say housing construction is the worst performing sector of the economy, with conditions unlikely to improve in 2012, despite hefty interest rate cuts since November.
Stephen Walters, chief economist at JPMorgan, described the ongoing slide in housing construction as a "disaster", saying a number of factors are eroding demand and constraining housing supply.
With the world economy still weak, consumers were reluctant to jump into building a new home, especially when prices were still falling, he said. According to property research firm RP Data, house prices fell 5.3*per cent*in the year to May.
Endless reports of whats happening in the real world ....
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/housing-slump-drag-on-economy/story-e6frg926-1226403112643
With construction such a "disaster" you really have to wonder about these billionaire miners needing to import 457 contruction labour because of a "skills shortage" - so many absolute rorts in the country ...
+1, a long long time.
If +1 is an acceptable abbreviation for agreeing then where do +3 or -4 fit?
If you are referring to sparticus' stats then who would know, he has never provided evidence of anything that he says, which as far as I'm aware has proven to be incorrect almost every time.I gather the stats are, in given areas I assume, that first home buyers are re-entering the market.
On what evidence, not circumspection, do you base your "long long time" view? And how long is that?
Do you really need to be shown where the rpdata daily house price index is found? Its almost as bad as someone quoting a price of a stock and then needing to show evidence, as always rebuke me if you can otherwise it is you who is breeding missinformation. hockey sticks do not signal the end of the world or anything unsustainable just how poorly linear scale is at plotting compound growt some people are silly enouth think thwt because linear scale can no longer fit this growth it musnt fit in real life set your charts to a log scale remove the tinfoil hat and rejoin reality . exponential growth always looks unsustainable on linear just because it cant fit the chart does not mean we are done in real life the present always looks like the peak on those charts weather its now 200 years from now or 200 years ago anyone who understands graphs understands this where the graph runs out of resolution does not signal the end or anywhere near
it really is a very simple process, im sure if you try really really hard, even you can achieve it! simply link-your-info when quoting figures. go and adjust all your graphs(if you actually view data?) to give yourself peace of mind. i now remember why i stopped dealing with you.
Lol you actually dont know where the indexs are quoted do you?? Oh well thats to bad for you. why dont you ask scm even he didnt need verification for that one. come to think of it knowone else has either good luck it really is a useful tool anyone who is anyone will have it as for the uninformed well they will just have to be content with whatever picture there 100 year old chart on linear is painting them.
Scm further in the red today by a whole 1% with mel at 576 for info syd also gained at 631.
Thanks i forgot we were also monitoring gold im sparticus gold hypothetical is currently in the green think it was short @ 1577. Its a hypothetical why would it have been closed the whole point was to monitor gold vs housing and atm housing is winning. even melbourne housing lol.
What about the interest charges for when you were down on the gold short? You can't short gold without leverage as far I recall, so you'd be underwater as things stand.Thanks i forgot we were also monitoring gold im sparticus gold hypothetical is currently in the green think it was short @ 1577. Its a hypothetical why would it have been closed the whole point was to monitor gold vs housing and atm housing is winning. even melbourne housing lol.
can I play?
put me down for Long XJO , Short all the property indexes except Perth. $1m per side
hypothetically.
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