The future of Australian property prices

[medicowallet]

I stand corrected MW ....... Keen is still an IDIOT !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Property has always been under pressure from every angle FFS. Interest rates too low, over supply, under supply, interest rates too high, no rentals, too much Guvmint interference, banks lending criteria too high/low Keystart. FHOG, greedy developers, Asian influence, no capital growth etc etc etc BLAH BLAH BLAH ....... seen it all before.

Yes yes yes it is different now ....... same as before.

If this was a share thread ...... what is different? Do you buy shares without doing due diligence or do you buy them on a whim? Do you get a gut feeling or do you make an informed decision? Do you buy because your "broker" told you to or was it the TV?

Seen it all before? Seen it in the past 10 years, yes, also at higher levels than before.

There is a limit to ANY asset class growing at compounding rates well in excess of inflation, and housing HAS to come back at some stage. Increasing gearing levels at such accelerating rates is just impossible. Totally impossible mathematically, so at some point the pressure MUST cause a correction.

Or do you think that the houping market is immune to corrections?


MW
(the original robot dismantler)
Keeping it real for the houping market.

 

[trainspotter]

I disagree with you there TH and it would seem that George Soros also disagrees with you after granted Steven Keen $125,000 to further his research.

Cheers

This would be George Soros that has been convicted of insider trading in 2002 for Societe Generale? IDIOT worth billions. Proven doomsayer so he can talk the market down whilst he buys up big while the blood runs in the street? Same guy? LOL.

Keen is a briliant economist that has predicted 5 of the last 3 downturns.

Anyways ........ I am posting again which is going against my predilection to do so. Enjoy.

 

[trainspotter]

Seen it all before? Seen it in the past 10 years, yes, also at higher levels than before.

There is a limit to ANY asset class growing at compounding rates well in excess of inflation, and housing HAS to come back at some stage. Increasing gearing levels at such accelerating rates is just impossible. Totally impossible mathematically, so at some point the pressure MUST cause a correction.

Or do you think that the houping market is immune to corrections?


MW
(the original robot dismantler)
Keeping it real for the houping market.

Just once more because it is you MW ...... I have repeatedly said that it is quite easy to see that the market will fall over 20 % in CERTAIN ares. I have also said that the general market will see falls of 10% on a mean average over the 8 capital cities over a 5 year period.

Surely you of all observant people have logged this away in your hippocampus for future reference. FFS.

I have also repeatedly maintained that IF you pick the RIGHT property to purchase in CERTAIN ares that you will still make money. Just like the share market. But property is different right?

 

[medicowallet]

Just once more because it is you MW ...... I have repeatedly said that it is quite easy to see that the market will fall over 20 % in CERTAIN ares. I have also said that the general market will see falls of 10% on a mean average over the 8 capital cities over a 5 year period.

Surely you of all observant people have logged this away in your hippocampus for future reference. FFS.

I have also repeatedly maintained that IF you pick the RIGHT property to purchase in CERTAIN ares that you will still make money. Just like the share market. But property is different right?

Is that 10% from current prices?

MW

PS I think your neuro knowledge of the hippocampus is not very well developed. Not really a memory storage area as you propose

 

[trainspotter]

Is that 10% from current prices?

MW

PS I think your neuro knowledge of the hippocampus is not very well developed. Not really a memory storage area as you propose

And here I was thinking you were a doctor? Try anterograde amnesia and see what happens. I have an Aunt with this situation.

 

[medicowallet]

And here I was thinking you were a doctor? Try anterograde amnesia and see what happens. I have an Aunt with this situation.

There is a difference between forming new memories, as opposed to having stored memories, so please, keep to topics you know a lot about, such as property....

so keeping on topic.

Is the 10% drop from current levels?

 

[FxTrader]

I TRADE PROPERTY FOR A LIVING. Do you?

Well, well, struck a nerve with our resident egomaniac once again. I trade for a living as well, but I would not waste time with "trading" property, that's the slow road to nowhere now in most of Australia. Would probably work well in the U.S. at the moment though.

Go and read the posts and you MAY and I stress you MAY get an understanding of what it takes to have the balls to do what I do. Nope ..... instead you lick every post with a grain of salt. I am trying to explain to you what it takes to trade property and what do I get in return ........... Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm ???????

You've explained nothing, rather you revel in petty, childish insults and useless banter about your glorious past. The pathetic level of risk you take "trading" property is of little interest to real "traders" in derivatives and forex. You have no idea what real risk is until you put on a trade that can cost you thousands in seconds. Your balls are peanuts by comparison.

 

[trainspotter]

LOL ...... go find someone else to play with Doc. I am bored beyond belief, Goodnight old chum.

 

[trainspotter]

Well, well, struck a nerve with our resident egomaniac once again. I trade for a living as well, but I would not waste time with "trading" property, that's the slow road to nowhere now in most of Australia. Would probably work well in the U.S. at the moment though.



You've explained nothing, rather you revel in petty, childish insults and useless banter about your glorious past. The pathetic level of risk you take "trading" property is of little interest to real "traders" in derivatives and forex. You have no idea what real risk is until you put on a trade that can cost you thousands in seconds. Your balls are peanuts by comparison.

LMAO ..... last time I looked I am not trading in the US of A.

Grow some hair on them FX Trader ... for a few thousand I could probably toss you for it.

 

[medicowallet]

LOL ...... go find someone else to play with Doc. I am bored beyond belief, Goodnight old chum.

Is the 10% drop from current levels?

MW

 

[sptrawler]

I haven't been following this thread, looks like I missed out on a bit of excitement.
I expected a major correction in property, but it hasn't eventuated.
I am seeing a drop of 15-20% in my suburb, but that is from the absolute peak of what houses were getting.
They are still higher than the low they reached in 2009, when owners were panick selling.
The fact still remains, there will not be a radical drop in prices unless we go into recession and unemployment goes up.
This will only happen if commodity prices fall over, as to that nickel is usually the bellwether and it is sliding badly.
Next year will be make or break. IMO

 

[moXJO]

My area went through a slight dip for a few weeks then all the houses I had shortlisted sold. Lot of building activity as well going on (reno, expansion) making the house prices rise. The other talk is people getting out of the sharemarket and going to housing. Even crap areas seem to have a small boost. Still well off the highs, but well overpriced.
10 years waiting for a drop and counting.

 

[medicowallet]

I read this on the train today. The paper was sitting on the chair next to a used packed of kleenex.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/house-prices-extend-slide-nab-20110928-1kwck.html

House prices falling. Who would have guessed.

At least rental yields are increasing.


MW

PS Where is Robots?

 

[Aussiejeff]

Another take on the latest housing data..

In other negative reports, a NAB survey of industry players found that house prices have fallen 2.4 per cent across Australia this quarter.

Victoria, which has suffered the steepest fall in prices in the current quarter, is expected to be the nation's worst-performing property market for the next two years, according to the study.

CommSec economist Craig James described it as a "dead cat bounce" in what was the weakest housing sales market in a decade.

And a report released by RP Data revealed that nationwide, 7.7 per cent of houses bought since 2007 are now worth less than their purchase price.

http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...ty/story-e6frfmd0-1226150977789#ixzz1ZIAllcom

I'm noticing a lot more For Sale signs popping up around Wodonga. Very few "SOLD" stickers, though. The Long Wait might just be starting for sellers....

 

[moXJO]

I'm noticing a lot more For Sale signs popping up around Wodonga. Very few "SOLD" stickers, though. The Long Wait might just be starting for sellers....

It was like that where I am and prices started to drop. Then buyers seemed to hit the market again. Still 100k overpriced imo but it's not what I price them at that makes the sale

 

[greebly24]

The Australian, Thursday, September 29, 2011
"House prices on the slide"

"...research shows more than 300,000 homes nationally are today worth less than their owners paid for them."

Considering there are millions of homes in Australia, it doesn't sound that bad.

"...includes almost 100,000 homes bought since the onset of the global financial crisis in early 2008..."

Does that mean over 200,000 homes bought before the GFC are worth less than they were paid for? Now that sounds bad. Particularly over 4+ years since.

"Queensland has been hardest hit by declining home values, with about one in seven homeowners sitting on paper losses..."

I wonder how many people would have rushed in to buy RE in QLD, if they knew there was a 15% chance it was going to depreciate? Guess the RE agents forgot to mention it.

"One in ten homes in Western Australia are now worth less than their owners paid for them..."

Only a 10% chance of losing money on RE in WA. Not bad odds really, considering other investments.

But what happened to the mining boom? How can RE drop in the biggest mining states? Floods and tourism might help explain QLD, but what about WA?

"For September, house prices nationally slid 2.4 per cent after a decline of 2 per cent in June, with a further 1 per cent slide expected in the next 12 months."

So we've already had some declines, but only another 1% decline over the next 12 months? With an inevitable Greek default looming, Spain & Italy to follow, then European & US banks collapsing, and China slowing, and commodity prices crashing? Not to mention Australia: retail crumbling, unemployment rising, manufacturing dying, real incomes decreasing. Only 1% decline in RE over 12 months? Really? Do people really have that much faith in governments and central banks to print money out of thin air to paper over all the trillions in bad debts? Really? We're all doomed.

 

[Aussiejeff]

But what happened to the mining boom? How can RE drop in the biggest mining states? Floods and tourism might help explain QLD, but what about WA?

Indeed. With many pundits now tipping China growth to slow significantly in the next few years, maybe the "rewards" currently being reaped from the much-vaunted "mining boom" in Oz might be just about as good as it will ever get.

If it's all going to start sliding down hill in the next year or two, what hope for Ozecon and RE by 2020 (a trifling 9 years from now)? Our economic prospects appear to be dimming by the day....so, let us pray that SuperSwan re-introduces a massive FHB boost for the foreseeable future + more ca$h cheques for all! LOL.

 

[moXJO]

Or another way you could look at it is Asia going through a boom, our dollar dropping and our investments snapped up.

 

[robots]

hello,

hit us up with the info Medicowallet

another great day brothers

thankyou

professor robots

 

[medicowallet]

hello,

hit us up with the info Medicowallet

another great day brothers

thankyou

professor robots

Hello brother,

REIV reports no results on grandfinal weekend.

I'll keep it real next weekend

MW