The future of Australian property prices

[Aussiejeff]

No short fall in Melbourne but an oversupply of over 30K> homes
Short duration in falls, ha try over indebtness

What could cause stagnation and falls :

1) Rising unemployment
2) world going into a prolonged recession
3) China crapping itself

But sunshine and lollipops all round

Apparently, no 3) manifested itself today when Premier Wen declared China will not bailout ANY developed countries (not just Eurozone) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...must-cut-debt-and-deficits-increase-jobs.html

Reading between the lines, seems like China is crapping itself at the looming losses from all that luvverly US debt they hold? They are ready to go all "isolationist" on the rest of the world when it comes to financial assistance.

So, will that lead to 2) then 1) in quick succession for Ozecon?

Good luck folks. We're all gonna need it since no saviour nation, apparently.

 

[satanoperca]

But AussieJeff, you keep forgetting, it cannot happen here because we are different

 

[kincella]

freeken hell, you guys said cash was king....
westpac dropped their cash management account interest to zero...
and the online accounts were about 6%...now 3.95%
geez, superfunds getting smashed, cause they put most of their investments into the stocks, or cash....
me, I am busy building a wildbird refuge in my backyard.....learning all about the native plants required to entice all those gorgeous birds .....I have a huge variety visiting on a regular basis already....
and believe I may have had some tiny pygmy possums as visitors recently.....they have gone now...so I did not get photos....was unaware they existed...they could be mistaken for rats....weigh 45 grams, 5" length with a similar sized tail...
the dog does a lot of bird watching now.....
the eastern rosella's put on quite a show...

saw an interesting article today....just how much money all the countries had lent to Greece....it was horriying....
on another pc so cannot find the link....

god help us if China decided to pull the plug.....
seems like the whole world is reliant on china.....

looks like the mud is hitting the fans big time.....
and a humungeous amount of extra money has to be printed......
so more devaluation of the dollar.....do you really know what that means

cheers to Robots....are you enjoying the regional life, clean air....smelling the roses

I note some interesting commercial opportunities.....are on the rise.....bargains to be had, if you know what you are doing....
all those little shops that suddenly cropped up, out of the blue, in the most obscure places, have all closed down......
I would never have touched them with a barge pole....
but boy, I can see some stunning commercial opportunities arising in the next few years...
I would be looking at Aldi opportunites...in the future....or similar...have a peek at their website...for what they require.... or similar cut price stores....

good luck to all...whatever asset class you invest in....you will need it....
except for residential....it will be fine....
unless some of you are contemplating living in caves, or living with the 'olds' forever

 

[kincella]

here is the link to the Greek exposure....horrifying reading
http://www.businessinsider.com/greece-default-contagion-2011-09?op=1

and to top that off....we have the most incompetent government running australia in our history....
loved the satire tonight...
At home with julia...on abc at 9.30....
if you understand satire....it is brilliant...

a great example of who is in charge of the country....and how competent they are....and how it affects your investments....
no wonder there is turmoil,,,,and no confidence whatsoever.....
as said previously...
good luck...cause you will need it....
with ferals like this in charge...

 

[againsthegrain]

Strange anz upped their online saver to 6.35% intro rate from 6.25% so are they preparing for the rates to go up or just very desperate to get some real cash in their vaults?

Not much pointing towards rates going up short term so what do they know?

 

[singlefished]

freeken hell, you guys said cash was king....
westpac dropped their cash management account interest to zero...
and the online accounts were about 6%...now 3.95%

?????

Westpac reward saver paying 6% with $50/pcm deposit and no withdrawals.....

PLEASE..... stop posting utter rubbish!!!!!!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

kincella, you still confuse me?

except for residential....it will be fine....

Your posts =

Part 1 = why the financial world is going to explode

Part 2 = why Australian property will be totally immune - ie go out and buy more bargains

???????

 

[basilio]

As the Greek debt crisis unfolds might be worth reviewing what happened in 1931 when the Australian Bank Credit Anstalt collapsed

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_18/b4226012481756.htm

 

[medicowallet]

Strange anz upped their online saver to 6.35% intro rate from 6.25% so are they preparing for the rates to go up or just very desperate to get some real cash in their vaults?

Not much pointing towards rates going up short term so what do they know?

Oh, our rates are on the way down for sure.

However, bank borrowing rates are on the way up.

That is the difference



Beautiful day today, sunshine beaming down, birds singing.

Weekend, much the same in the forecast.

I don't agree, I feel a storm coming, and I am glad I have good shelter from it.


Sunshine, lollipops, bubbles and dark clouds.

The true believer, and the destroyer of Robots.
MW

PS. I wonder how everyone geared with only 40% equity is feeling at the moment, because that equity is probably only 30% now, could be 20% by the end of the year.

 

[Tysonboss1]

PS. I wonder how everyone geared with only 40% equity is feeling at the moment, because that equity is probably only 30% now, could be 20% by the end of the year.

I don't rekon at this point they know or care.

Probably still just walking the dog or enjoying taco night with the kids who are looking forward to a BBQ on the week end with Nanny and Poppy.

They'll just continue working, enjoying life and will never feel any of the girations of the market along the way.

It's summer soon, I can't wait to soak up the humidity on the back verandah, while I sip on a bundy and coke, and I won't be thinking about the daily flucuations in the possible sale price of a home I am not planning on selling for 40 years.

 

[satanoperca]

They'll just continue working, enjoying life and will never feel any of the girations of the market along the way.

I don't know of to many home owners that don't care how much their house is worth. Our nation is obsessed with it, easy way to riches most believe.

The thing most have selective hearing and only want to know when it has doubled in 7 years.

Cheers

 

[prawn_86]

I don't know of to many home owners that don't care how much their house is worth. Our nation is obsessed with it, easy way to riches most believe.

I don't rekon at this point they know or care.

I am not planning on selling for 40 years.

I think this highlights a key point for any asset. Price only matters when you are either interested in buying, or interested ins elling. If you are happy to (and can afford to) hold the asset within your budget then the day:day, month:month, year:year 'noise' doesnt really matter.

We have CNBC and other business channels on everyday at work, and it just makes me think "who actually cares if ANZ or Telstra move by 5c one day then back down the next". It's all just noise unless you are in the market to buy or sell

 

[medicowallet]

I don't rekon at this point they know or care.

Probably still just walking the dog or enjoying taco night with the kids who are looking forward to a BBQ on the week end with Nanny and Poppy.

They'll just continue working, enjoying life and will never feel any of the girations of the market along the way.

It's summer soon, I can't wait to soak up the humidity on the back verandah, while I sip on a bundy and coke, and I won't be thinking about the daily flucuations in the possible sale price of a home I am not planning on selling for 40 years.

Unless the banks make them sell.

I can't wait for the august figures to come out, I wonder if a trend is forming, kind of like with auction clearances, not that they mean anything

Banks tend to not like it when people can't pay back loans. they also tend not to lend money to people who make their living by having 40% equity, I mean 30%, know anyone like thise?

Lollipops and sunshine
MW

PS Where is Robots?

 

[Tysonboss1]

1,Banks tend to not like it when people can't pay back loans.

2, they also tend not to lend money to people who make their living by having 40% equity, I mean 30%, know anyone like thise?

Lollipops and sunshine
MW

PS Where is Robots?

1, No doubt, But 34% of people own their home out right and the average LVR for the remainder is 50% based on cba's figures, and that LVR is based on the original value when the loan was done, which may have been up to 20years ago.

2, Don't know what you mean here.

 

[Tysonboss1]

I don't know of to many home owners that don't care how much their house is worth. Our nation is obsessed with it, easy way to riches most believe.

Cheers

We must hang in different circles, I wouldn't have an accurate idea of what my properties would sell at today.

 

[satanoperca]

1, No doubt, But 34% of people own their home out right and the average LVR for the remainder is 50% based on cba's figures, and that LVR is based on the original value when the loan was done, which may have been up to 20years ago.

This may be well true but you only need a small percentage of owners to start selling with no buying pressure and it brings down the whole market. Your statement is just to general to sum up the activity of a whole market.

Given the last two years has seen a large percentage of FHB purchase with extremely high LVR's, it would take much at all to see them fold. Just as the FHBG caused a massive increase in prices, no FHB activity can do the opposite.

Regardless of all the internal matters in Oz that can affect RE prices, it is the externals ones that I believe will bring down the house.

Cheers

 

[Tysonboss1]

1, This may be well true but you only need a small percentage of owners to start selling with no buying pressure and it brings down the whole market.

2,Your statement is just to general to sum up the activity of a whole market.

3, Given the last two years has seen a large percentage of FHB purchase with extremely high LVR's, it wouldn't take much at all to see them fold. Just as the FHBG caused a massive increase in prices, no FHB activity can do the opposite.

Cheers

1, No doubt this is true, we see this alot in the share market, frequently of late, But the rate of forced and panic selling and speculative trading is far less in the real estate market than the share market

2, Well it is far less general than alot of the other comments people post

3, What would make them fold, a decrease in prices alone can not make them fold, It would take massive job losses to have an impact, those large groups of high LVR first home buyers you speak of make up less than 5% of all home owners

 

[ROE]

http://au.tv.yahoo.com/sunrise/soapbox/article/-/10208867/miss-it-watch-the-live-finance-forum-here/

Part 3 -- skipped to the 15 minutes mark ....how this guy buy properties
very sound principles...

 

[freebird54]

Just found out - agent has gone bankrupt - that happens often here - how can a rental only agent lose money? ;-)

I am very impressed with the contributions from both sides of the argument and I am sure there are people here that can give me some advice

I am renting [have been for many years after selling our homes]and investing what I save by doing that.

Absentee owner likes me to do minor repairs and does not want to spend much money - I do not have a problem with that as annual increases are negotiated depending on how much work I have done.

Anyway owner visited - first time in 5 years and I asked him what his plans were. He was non committal but said he is not selling.

I did offer to pay a years rent in advance.

He seemed friendly - said he had forgotten what the home looked like.

He said he the agent had not told him about some repair items that were necessary that agent had been told about.

The current 2 year lease expires in a few weeks and for the last 2 months I have been asking the agent what the intentions were.

With 3 kids at home a stressful time!

It seems the agent [who always seems overworked] has not passed this request on.

What would you advise now - contact owner direct [never done] and probably upset agent or keep hassling the agent?

Thanks

 

[medicowallet]

Fantastic day brothers,

Quiet in the streets, less cars driving by looking at the houses on display. Birds are chirping, spring is in the air.

I have an idea. Since there are so many for sale signs, we should make it compulsory for them to have 1 side as a solar panel. This could probably provide baseload power in lots of places.

Looking forward to the REIV figures, probably based off 400 reported auctions this week, probably off record listings.

Interesting to see a RE agent go belly up, perhaps not enough sales to support the audis that they drive around in.

Sunshine, paradise and bubbles,

MW

PS Where is Robots? at work today?