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Was't the talking point for the bulls "absent another global shock/GFC prices won't fall much"? Well I think we might have our catalyst.
 

It is very complicated indeed.

How about cost of funding increasing as credit markets get squeezed, and australian banks being over exposed to residential property, and manufacturing in australia in big trouble.... etc etc


On a lighter note, where is robots for comment, I mean he HAS predicted 175 of the last 10 property upturns, I wonder how he is feeling at the moment, with a broke government not giving megabucks to rich tradesmen (do they really need it, or a pay cut?)

Some of us true believers have seen this coming for a while,

Sunshine and lollipops.
 
Was't the talking point for the bulls "absent another global shock/GFC prices won't fall much"? Well I think we might have our catalyst.

Hahahahaa ..... nope. It was mentioned that if people are fleeing the sharemarket they head for property as there is not enough to be gained out of interest bearing accounts. Interest rates need to rise and unemployment to escalate to cause severe hardship. As there is no chance of turning good coin out of property at the moment it is going to be interesting to see what they do? It could be that they perceive property to be a safer bet than the sharemarket. Herd mentality.
 

Credit being squeezed by the government we had to have.

Go and take a happy pill Doc. Your recent posts are bringing me down.

Robots is living the dream man. After taking his licks in here he as decided to move onto greener pastures.
 
Going out again today to look at housing, plenty to look at as well. Seen another house I looked at 2 weeks ago drop by $70k. They wanted $445k to begin with and has since dropped to $375k. Something has to be up with that so I will investigate further. Really I have all the time in the world so no hurry just yet.

Some people are finally catching on that they missed the big money and their block of bricks and bad design isn't worth the half a mill they thought it was. Things started to turn here fairly quickly (predictions from treasury of losing 7000 jobs to carbon tax helped). For the first time in ages have noticed 'for lease' signs sitting for more then a week.

North areas are the stronghold of the upper middle class and will be harder to crack. But $800k - $1mill was the norm and now struggling to hit $750k in some areas. Business has been folding so I am also picking up bits and pieces of equipment. Good times if you are cashed up. I'm excited

Given that people won't spend in shops because of price, houses are copping a hit for being too expensive and talk of IR reform, is this the beginning of deflation (which in my opinion is much needed here).
 
Although the general mood of most of the followers on this thread is very bearish on property, twice we have had spells where the bears hit an all time high.

Both times has ended in share market crashs, and property remaining relatively firm,
 
Although the general mood of most of the followers on this thread is very bearish on property, twice we have had spells where the bears hit an all time high.

Both times has ended in share market crashs, and property remaining relatively firm,

Perhaps this time there is just far more debt around peoples necks and the property market is just too high in relation to peoples capacity to pay.

I'll be interested to see how many wealthier people can hold onto their properties in the event of collapses in shares and businesses particularly if the businesses are supposed to be paying them big bucks. And in that situation there will be far more people on the sell side than the buy side.

We will see what happens with auctions and house sales this weekend. I think it will be ugly.
 
Although the general mood of most of the followers on this thread is very bearish on property, twice we have had spells where the bears hit an all time high.

Both times has ended in share market crashs, and property remaining relatively firm,

I always thought we were in a bubble given how we got here via such a rapid credit expansion.

I just couldn't see how it could pop given low unemployment numbers.

There is a possible confluence that might come together to change that.

Soft / negative numbers coming out of retail leading to shedding of labor.

GFC mark II if it comes and a government gun shy on stimulus (no Ken Henry)we drop confidence further and then we spiral.

We are still a long way from the above points IMHO.
 
Although the general mood of most of the followers on this thread is very bearish on property, twice we have had spells where the bears hit an all time high.

Both times has ended in share market crashs, and property remaining relatively firm,

In 2008 took massive amounts of Government stimulus to keep the train on the track.
 
R.B.A putting up interest rates due to high inflation. The Government increasing taxes to try and claw back excessive spending. Workers pushing for higher wages to keep their head above water. State Governments increasing utility prices and Governments charges. Local Government increasing rates and charges.
There isn't much sunshine out there for retail.
The Government should be reducing taxes to stimulate spending and inspiring confidence.
Oh I forgot, they have spent all that was in the kitty, on plasma t.v's, pink batts and school canteens.
I think it will be nothing short of a miracle if housing recovers in the next 10years, there is a lot of debt to flow under the bridge before it happens.
 
The Government should be reducing taxes to stimulate spending and inspiring confidence.
Oh I forgot, they have spent all that was in the kitty, on plasma t.v's, pink batts and school canteens.


You do realise you're contradicting yourself there....
 
Although the general mood of most of the followers on this thread is very bearish on property, twice we have had spells where the bears hit an all time high.

Both times has ended in share market crashs, and property remaining relatively firm,

Could it be a case of third time lucky?


Or are we truly "different" here?

If there is severe fallout over the next couple of months, our frail building and property sectors, struggling under the pressure of poor government, cautious investors and weakness of parts of our economy could react much differently to the last GFC.

Are you prepared to make a call on what you think will happen?
 
hello,

oh gidday,

just an avid reader now as most people here make me the issue and not the future of property prices

but gee a bit of action on the shonk exchange at the moment, hows that hey brothers? still cant understand how storm investors done there dough when investing in companies is the road to take, oh well

oh well, lucky still a great asset class to plod along with,

thankyou

professor robots
 
Hi Robots....good to see you pop in from time to time...
All is good out here in the country...well so far so good....I do miss Melb...
Looking at 2-3% rate cuts again...sigh...2008 repeating itself again....just worse this time with the US downgraded, and Italy Spain Greece needing bailouts...
I will never go back into stocks,,,,not ever....
my property investments have proven to be very solid, with great capital returns, as the bonus after good annual income....
stressful time for all those in the stockmarket, horrid for the retirees with super stuck with too much focus on stocks...
and god help the gamblers with margin loans....
I think this GFC mark 2 will be around for much longer than gfc mark 1
cheers
love to hear an update on what you are doing these days
 
Gidday robots. Shame the flamethrowers have made you stop posting.

Rates to drop by 0.5% ??? No wonder the banks were offering 15 year rates at 8.38%


http://www.businessday.com.au/business/double-rate-cut-tipped-for-september-20110808-1ii9g.html

RIGHT THEN ........ now we are getting somewhere. This could be the catalyst that I have been talking about. JOBS JOBS JOBS. If this happens then I can easily see a quickening slide on the 8 capital city average home price due to foreclosures.

Also means that investors will buy from the scrap heap and rent them out.
 

I am with you here..

Just depends on how much vote buying the Gillard government has left, wrt another FHVB.

I can understand why they would support high wages for tradesmen too (for that is all a government subsidy achieves) as they form a strong voter base.

When I can go to a builder, and they can build NOW, or I can actually get a spec home, then I will believe builders, and hence tradesmen, are doing it tough.
 
Wont be too far away Doc. ECB better buy them bonds tonight to prop up the Italians and Spaniards or we are in a world of pain. Crisis what crisis?

Australia wont be able to buy it's way out of this one. If the Gillard Guvmint tries it will be throwing itself over the financial cliff once commodity prices begin to slip as China gets the speed wobbles.

SOOOOOOO we are looking at a very interesting week. Make or break time. For the markets that is.

Where does that leave us on the property prices? Business as usual. Slowly does it.
 
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