The future of Australian property prices

[Glen48]

TRY this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q1PyJNp0FI&feature=related
Just the job for Robots.

 

[Aussiejeff]

So, where is all this Govnut (our money) coming from to help those struggling families out of their Real Estate Nightmare? Or put more NINJA's into a depressed market?

No wuckers! We will just follow Brave Big Ben Berwankee'$ scheme and simply PRINT MORE MOOLAH.

Mountains of luverly ca$h for Mr Market, Confe$$or & all. No need to pay the piper. The piper has been banished to La-La land.

Enjoy...

aj

 

[medicowallet]

what suburb you own your property medicowallet?

oh well

thankyou
professor robots

Hi bots, great to see you around again.

I don't own property in Victoria, only Queensland and NSW.

So I don't have anything in Melbourne, if that is what you were asking.

 

[moXJO]

Hi bots, great to see you around again.

I don't own property in Victoria, only Queensland and NSW.

So I don't have anything in Melbourne, if that is what you were asking.

Are you selling that before the crash?

 

[medicowallet]

Are you selling that before the crash?

No, I will ride it out, I own the properties (also own some from way back)

I have a philosophy of never selling anything (well rarely anyway).

Sure I make mistakes (MFS), but I also have made gains when I thought I would make losses.

Unfortunately, there are a lot of highly geared people where a 6% decline translates to 10-20% +

If it also happens again next quarter, then who knows what position they will be in.

 

[Dowdy]

Originally Posted by robots
hello,

gidday brothers, no extra shifts for me MW

so after the greatest financial shock the world has seen since 1929 and house prices have dropped a HUGE 6% WOW

and thats after a run of around 20% in 2010! hehehehehehehehehehehehehehe

what suburb you own your property medicowallet?

oh well

thankyou
professor robots

Not too good on maths are we?

6% per quarter is 24%pa

 

[medicowallet]

Not too good on maths are we?

6% per quarter is 24%pa

more like 22%

but yes, the sentiment is still really ordinary.

 

[schnootle]

more like 22%

but yes, the sentiment is still really ordinary.

Reminds me of this cartoon
http://xkcd.com/605/

 

[trainspotter]

Not too good on maths are we?

6% per quarter is 24%pa

Ummmmmm are you prophesying that this will extrapolate over this period of time?

Louis Christopher of SQM Research, who is predicting most capital cities will see prices fall by at least 5% during 2011, says the REIV figures – which are based on raw price data, unadjusted for factors such as more sales at the high or low end of the market – can be skewed by big price movements in particular suburbs.

http://www.smartcompany.com.au/prop...urne-house-prices-but-say-pain-is-coming.html

 

[Quincy]

CHINESE buyers have deserted billionaire Harry Triguboff's Meriton Apartments, with sales to Chinese owners and investors dropping from 30 a week to 10 a week over the past month.

"Our (real estate) market is the Chinese market, just like coal and iron ore," Mr Triguboff said.

Mr Triguboff, whose Meriton Apartments builds more than 1000 units a year, said Chinese owners and investors had accounted for about 75 per cent of Meriton sales for the last two to three years.

But in the past month, numbers had fallen steeply.

"Real estate is already dying. You can have all the planning reforms you want, but this won't help if there are no buyers," Mr Triguboff told The Australian.

"The Chinese, they are the only buyers I have. They are the only buyers anybody has," he said.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...riton-apartments/story-e6frg9gx-1226042443912


I think Harry Triguboff's comments go a fair way to explaining what is currently happening to Australian property (as a generalisation read as Sydney / Melbourne).

IMO, it's all about the Chinese who are coming to Sydney / Melbourne in huge numbers. The vast majority of property for sale in my area (north western Sydney) is being purchased by the ever increasing numbers of Chinese moving into this area.

 

[FxTrader]

IMO, it's all about the Chinese who are coming to Sydney / Melbourne in huge numbers. The vast majority of property for sale in my area (north western Sydney) is being purchased by the ever increasing numbers of Chinese moving into this area.

Yes, the article below indicates that Chinese buyers represented over 50% of buyers in some of the new developments here in Melbourne. I wonder how much of an impact there will be when the Chinese buyer flood recedes, significant I suspect.

http://zincip.biz/2011/02/07/overseas-buyers-snapping-up-melbourne-property/

http://zincip.biz/2011/02/11/asian-buyers-snap-up-local-sites/

 

[maffu]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...riton-apartments/story-e6frg9gx-1226042443912


I think Harry Triguboff's comments go a fair way to explaining what is currently happening to Australian property (as a generalisation read as Sydney / Melbourne).

IMO, it's all about the Chinese who are coming to Sydney / Melbourne in huge numbers. The vast majority of property for sale in my area (north western Sydney) is being purchased by the ever increasing numbers of Chinese moving into this area.

I came into this thread to post the same article.
I found it very interesting personally, I had heard people mention that it was the international buyers who were bumping up our real estate prices, but I was a bit skeptical. Never realized that 75% of our buyers were Chinese.

 

[Bill M]

Never realized that 75% of our buyers were Chinese.

It's not every suburb of Sydney and not everywhere. Where I am on The Central Coast it's 99% Aussie buyers and property is still holding firm up here.

 

[nukz]

I came into this thread to post the same article.
I found it very interesting personally, I had heard people mention that it was the international buyers who were bumping up our real estate prices, but I was a bit skeptical. Never realized that 75% of our buyers were Chinese.

In Melbourne the eastern suburbs all the way to Nunawadding are completely dominated by Chinese now.

In 08/09 most auctions in Balwyn were being held in Mandarin... go figure.

But the last 12 months has been a totally different story you won't see many people at open for inspections these days and if you see Chinese they are not in this huge rush for property's like they were years ago.

There was a story in the news about 2 years ago about a Chinese guy who had purchased 200 property's in Melbourne's eastern suburbs.

 

[trainspotter]

There was a story in the news about 2 years ago about a Chinese guy who had purchased 200 property's in Melbourne's eastern suburbs.

BOY is he gonna cop one for the team when this massive Ponzi scheme comes crumbling down !

Hey wait a minute ???? Why would he buy 200 properties in the first place? Dirty money to launder or did he believe he is gonna make money ?

200 properties multiply by average price of let's say $400,000 = EIGHTY MILLION DOLLARS !?!?!?!?!?!!! Must have balls of steel to roll that much in one asset class in such a tight demographic. Or did he have some inside knowledge?

Any follow up to see how he is going I wonder?

 

[FxTrader]

Hey wait a minute ???? Why would he buy 200 properties in the first place? Dirty money to launder or did he believe he is gonna make money?

Probably make money, but then that's what most property investors believe isn't it? The past is the future and property is a sure thing, but only in Australia (except now for most of Queensland, West Australia, and the NT with Melbourne and Sydney hoping to go against the tide).

200 properties multiply by average price of let's say $400,000 = EIGHTY MILLION DOLLARS !?!?!?!?!?!!! Must have balls of steel to roll that much in one asset class in such a tight demographic. Or did he have some inside knowledge?

If true, what type of properties did he buy, in what suburbs and at what price? Did he use a buyers agent and/or just focus on a few expensive suburbs? We just don't know but if he was smart and clairvoyant he sold them all 6 months ago when the market in Melbourne peaked.

This story highlights the problem, foreign buyers (primarily Chinese) proping up the bubble and contributing to the afforability crisis courtesy of relaxed foreign ownership laws. Who does this benefit, the banks perhaps? Certainly not the average Australian home buyer.

 

[TabJockey]

BOY is he gonna cop one for the team when this massive Ponzi scheme comes crumbling down !

Hey wait a minute ???? Why would he buy 200 properties in the first place? Dirty money to launder or did he believe he is gonna make money ?

200 properties multiply by average price of let's say $400,000 = EIGHTY MILLION DOLLARS !?!?!?!?!?!!! Must have balls of steel to roll that much in one asset class in such a tight demographic. Or did he have some inside knowledge?

Any follow up to see how he is going I wonder?

He had 200 kids, and they all needed a place to live as they studied in Australia

 

[Quincy]

BOY is he gonna cop one for the team when this massive Ponzi scheme comes crumbling down !

Hey wait a minute ???? Why would he buy 200 properties in the first place? Dirty money to launder or did he believe he is gonna make money ?

200 properties multiply by average price of let's say $400,000 = EIGHTY MILLION DOLLARS !?!?!?!?!?!!! Must have balls of steel to roll that much in one asset class in such a tight demographic. Or did he have some inside knowledge?

Any follow up to see how he is going I wonder?

He had 200 kids, and they all needed a place to live as they studied in Australia

If this purchase happened around 2 years ago (as stated by "nukz") , then there is a fair chance that this bulk purchase would most likely have been by a "front man" - a dual citizen (Chinese man who has obtained P.R. / Australian citizenship) : -

Backflip on foreign property ownership

The Rudd Government has today (24 April, 2010) announced a crackdown on foreign property investors reversing many of the changes it made hastily in 2008 under the umbrella of “Administrative Changes” and imposing tougher penalties on anyone breaking these laws.

With house prices in decline in 2008, Wayne Swan made changes to the foreign investment legislation, allowing foreigners to more easily purchase property in Australia and underpinning the weak market. However, this lead to a surge of foreign buyers bidding up prices and locking many Australians out of purchasing their own homes.

Under the streamlining of the Administrative changes, temporary residents such as students didn’t have to notify anyone of their purchase. This made the problem extremely hard to monitor and measure with the government admitting they had no idea just how many foreigners were purchasing property in Australia. Real Estate agents are suggesting as many as 30% of purchases are by foreigners. This change and many others have been reinstated, and temporary residents must once again notify the Foreign Investment Review Board of their purchases and sell when they leave the country.

With a rapid decline in mortgage approvals in Australia since September last year, it has been thought foreigners have been filling the gaps. Any reduction in foreigners participating in Australia’s property market could lead to a fall in house prices over the coming months.

http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/?p=936

My guess would also be that none of the money used to make this bulk purchase would have been sourced here in Australia. The purchase would most likely have been made on behalf of a consortium of 200 x Chinese purchasers, each stumping up the money individually and allowing the "Australian citizen" to purchase in his name on their behalf. I know that this activity goes on in north western Sydney (albeit on a much lesser scale - one or two properties only). This way of purchasing Australian property still flies under the FIRB radar.

The "Chinese factor" has definitely had a big influence on property prices in certain parts of Sydney (those that I know about) and no doubt certain parts of Melbourne as well. As the Chinese are retreating somewhat now from the "highs" of the last few years (see above article for what I believe to be one of the reasons), property prices in Sydney / Melbourne (again certain parts) are IMO reflecting same.

It's not every suburb of Sydney and not everywhere. Where I am on The Central Coast it's 99% Aussie buyers and property is still holding firm up here.

As a matter of interest, would you be able to guess how many of the Aussie buyers on The Central Coast are coming from Sydney ? eg. some retirees (looking to relocate to a quieter life - maybe near the beach) and some other sellers (looking for an investment property) who have been able to get the high prices in recent times by selling their Sydney home to the cashed up Chinese.

 

[Quincy]

.
I haven't seen details about this posted before - see below.

Maybe food for thought, given that the Federal Government is insisting that its May 10, 2011 budget will be its toughest yet.

Negative Gearing Rort added to Endangered Species List

Thursday, April 21st, 2011

With the housing market once again showing signs of cooling, there has been some debate in recent weeks surrounding the question of if the government will introduce a new first home owner’s grant to prop up the market. So you can imagine the surprise we received today, when news broke that the Gillard Government has been discussing options to scale back negative gearing with senior labour figures and the unions. Any thought of a new grant to prop the market back up is now distant thought.

It is understood discussions have so far included the scaling back of negative gearing based on the number of properties owned, starting at investors with two or more properties. There are about 294,000 investors that hold more than two investment properties.

http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/?cat=3

 

[Bill M]

As a matter of interest, would you be able to guess how many of the Aussie buyers on The Central Coast are coming from Sydney ? eg. some retirees (looking to relocate to a quieter life - maybe near the beach) and some other sellers (looking for an investment property) who have been able to get the high prices in recent times by selling their Sydney home to the cashed up Chinese.

I walk around a bit and talk to many neighbours, I reckon at a rough guess about 50 to 60% have come from Sydney, not many claim to have been bought out by the Chinese. I'm from the Northern Beaches, most of the people buying in that area are local Aussies who have lived there a long time.