Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The future of Australian property prices

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wayneL said:
It is, yet it isn't.

:2twocents
Click to expand...

Is that some kind of Japanese philosophy that I don't understand? Or is it just a simple positive negative like "Yeah .... nahhhh"?

Meanwhile back at the ranch in America - Stockton to be precise - None of the six is seeing price gains, just lessening declines that are expected to continue. Their foreclosure rates have peaked, so the worst could be behind them. Homes in these markets also are becoming more affordable, relative to local incomes, than they were before the real estate boom and bust of the past decade. Investors in many of the markets say the housing deals won't get much better.

http://weststockton.news10.net/news/news/study-stockton-vallejo-housing-markets-bottoming-out/64282

What's this then ?? A shaky bank in Australialalala land that has too many eggs in one basket?

Bad debts included a $45 million charge associated with the weather events and another $35 million from large commercial exposures, mostly in the property and construction sectors.[/I]

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/bre...ar/story-e6frfkur-1226039123335#ixzz1JUoaCk17

*GOSH* and here I was thinking that it was likely to be Adelaide bank with it's top heavy Lo Doc loans. Nope ........ securitised lending in too tight a demographic with a natural disaster thrown on top. :rolleyes:
 
trainspotter said:
Is that some kind of Japanese philosophy that I don't understand? Or is it just a simple positive negative like "Yeah .... nahhhh"?
Click to expand...

The Taoists would say both, but if you claim to understand, you don't understand.

Do you understand now? :p:
 
wayneL said:
The Taoists would say both, but if you claim to understand, you don't understand.

Do you understand now? :p:
Click to expand...

A bit like this thread really.

Hot off the press from RP DATA - Lending finance data released this week by the ABS continue to show ongoing weakness. The total value of lending finance fell by -5.7% for the month and is -4.2% lower year on year. The soft lending conditions are certainly reflective of the overall consumer conservatism that has become apparent, resulting in a lower propensity to borrow. Interestingly, personal credit finance commitments have recorded the greatest fall year on year, down -11.7%

No wonder the various Governments are so keen to keep it all going in one direction.

Property related taxes are, by far, the largest source of tax revenue for the state and local governments. With buoyant housing market conditions over the 2009/10 financial year, property related tax income for the state and local government sector rose to new highs, however Governments should be budgeting from much lower property related taxes over the current financial year.

During the 2009-10 financial year, state and local governments raked in almost $32 million in taxes from property – the highest amount on record. Over the financial year, total property related tax revenue increased by 14.3% following a -10.5% fall in property tax revenue during the softer housing market conditions of 2008-09. Last year’s increase was the largest of any financial year since 2000-01.

http://www.myrp.com.au/
 
Beijing News reported Tuesday, citing data from the city's Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission." And while many dismissed these news as merely a property specific ASP rotation, what followed was a downgrade of the Chinese property sector by Moody's citing an expectation of "credit conditions to worsen in next 12-18 months for developers" at which point we decided to dig in deeper. It appears not all is as good as the apologists would like to claim. Because while the average selling price in Beijing plunged by 34%, and that in Hangzhou by 26%, the drop was very substantial and rather pervasive pretty much everywhere else as well. From Citi's Oscar Choi: "ASP- down 7% MoM in March, biggest monthly drop in the past five years. In January and February, ASP in most key cities still maintained an upward trend. But entering March, ASP achieved in 18 key cities dropped by 7% MoM, and Beijing’s and Hangzhou’s ASP achieved were down 34% MoM, Hangzhou down 26% MoM.


Any property slowdown in China will have a huge effect on Australia
 
The Skeen disease has been contracted by the herald sun, great day in Melbourne, so thought I would do a spot of fishing with junior, a mate and his son down in the docklands. Sent the kids to get a paper, didn't look at it until I just got home, catching to many bream.
There it was front page, "Bubble Bursts", those lollipops must have gone sour. Next in the equation is to see over coming months if unemployment starts to rise. let's hope that the go nuts are not stupid enough to waste taxpayers doars keeping the bubble inflated or I will be advocating a strike on paying taxes if they are going to be continually wasted.

Great day indeed.
 
trainspotter said:
I don't get it UBI ??? Clicked on the link and I get a Justin Beiber scalpers news website? :confused:

What has this got to do with Australian property prices and their future?
Click to expand...

Isn't it obvious? First home buyers will be using their home deposits to pay for over inflated bieber tickets instead of their first home. This in turn will soften demand and be the catalyst for the 40% property crash.

I'm just glad that i managed to secure a number of these tickets near the original selling price - it's serving well as a short term inflation hedge!
 
"Saturday 16th April 2011

Demand for homes at this weekends residential auctions mirrored last weekend with a clearance rate of 61 per cent compared to 59 per cent last weekend.

There were a total of 840 auctions reported this weekend, of which a total of 513 sold and 327 were passed in. Of the homes passed in at auction 204 were passed in on a vendors bid.

"

Doing it for the masses.


"This weekend last year saw 928 auctions and a clearance rate of 83 per cent"

83% to 61%

Why would this happen?
 
medicowallet said:
"Saturday 16th April 2011

Demand for homes at this weekends residential auctions mirrored last weekend with a clearance rate of 61 per cent compared to 59 per cent last weekend.
Click to expand...
What I find interesting is that Enzo reported the clearance last weekend at 62%. Notice how he revised that figure down now to 59% to give the impression that the property is picking up. REIV would have to produce the dodgiest stats out there.
 
the difference in clearance rates for auctions from last year is easy....there have been 4 interest rate rises since then, plus a bank only sanctioned rise on top of it...

the focus by most on these forums is about the inner city prices...which are ridiculously high...
but they have taken their eyes off the rest of the market...no noise, the other people are just quietly going about their business of buying a house, or the 2nd house in upgrading...
a whopping 60,000 people pa are heading for the outer suburbs....where housing is still affordable...
I believe there are no problems with houses under 300k's, and 400 range...

and rents are rising....
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...e-too-few-houses/story-fn6njxlr-1226038292917

wonder how many chinese will head over here now....where it is still much cheaper ...and there are no restrictions, as there are in china...
 
kincella said:
the difference in clearance rates for auctions from last year is easy....there have been 4 interest rate rises since then, plus a bank only sanctioned rise on top of it...

and rents are rising....
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...e-too-few-houses/story-fn6njxlr-1226038292917
Click to expand...

Rental asking price will be tempered by decreasing growth, increasing electricity prices and carbon tax etc.

It has to hit a ceiling somewhere and with property prices stagnating, then I agree, it will mean people will purchase instead of renting.

So which is the supporter of which? Do high rental prices drive property price growth or merely support it? or do high rental expectations drive action in property sales and hence prices?

If one is stagnant, it is unlikely the other one is going to go gangbusters in this environment.
 
Dowdy said:
That's where most of the problems are. All the first home buyers are all but out of the market so demand will decrease and so will prices.
Click to expand...

Agree, that's where the no saved deposit market resides (AKA first home buyers grant).

Strange how industry voices on the mainstream news suggest that now is the time to buy, I thought these things take years to play out.:confused:
 
kincella said:
the focus by most on these forums is about the inner city prices...which are ridiculously high...
but they have taken their eyes off the rest of the market...no noise, the other people are just quietly going about their business of buying a house, or the 2nd house in upgrading...
a whopping 60,000 people pa are heading for the outer suburbs....where housing is still affordable...
I believe there are no problems with houses under 300k's, and 400 range...
Click to expand...
With all due respect,

Affordable in whose eyes? You are out of step with reality if you believe this.

Meanwhile in WA, a lot of press here on the weekend that the Retail sector is officially in Recession and things haven't been this bad for many, many years.
 
Well you property bulls, on the weekend I watched my first auction. The property was purchased 18months ago for $750k, the house was demolished and block cleared then subdivided. About 12months ago the 3 blocks were put on the market for 395k each.
At the peak that was somewhere near the price being achieved (apples for apples) they didn't sell. Well onto the auction last weekend, 30 or so people turned up, no starting bid at $250k.:eek:
 

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