i dont know what is happening around the rest of the country. But i have bought a block of land in adelaide, and mananged to get 20% off the asking price. Go back a few yrs this didnt happen. People are desperate to sell, and there are no buyers anymore. If someone signs up subject to finance usually it falls through. One block i was looking at had been bought 5 times subject to finance, and all fell through, its been on the market for one yr now. Its for sale for $200k, so not big $.
if people dont think its a correction happening now, they are in the land of the fairies. My advice is to bargin hard and some bargins can be bought.
this notion of a land shortage is just crap, australia doesnt have the population growth of 3 yrs ago, its halved now. The only country with land shortage is the vatican.
As an aside, what do people think the chances are of tipping into technical recession if/when house prices deteriorate? Given so much of our GDP is consumption spending, and this spending grows when we have high house prices and feel wealther, am I the only one that thinks we will go into recession as soon as house price falls are recognized by the general public?
I can't see how a correction in house prices would cause a recession, Most people have no idea how much their houses are worth and they don't really kept track of them like share prices. It's not like you can sit at a computer and watch you house price update every 20minutes.
I mean I have an idea of what my properties are worth within $50K each way, but you never know so the majority of people would have no emotion to a correction.
I can see how a recession might bring about a decline in houses prices, but not the other way around.
I mean it's just like share prices, if share prices crashed >10% would it mean the country would dive into recession. Probably not. But if the country did head into recession then share prices would probably "crash" by more than 10%.
white_goodman;607935ht said:its not as unforeseeable as u think...
if theres a whiff of interest rate rises or china failing and unemployment increases...
this notion of a land shortage is just crap, .
REIV clearance rate was just 51% yesterday. That's the lowest level I've seen since I started tracking it in June 2008.
I can't see how a correction in house prices would cause a recession, Most people have no idea how much their houses are worth and they don't really kept track of them like share prices. It's not like you can sit at a computer and watch you house price update every 20minutes.
I mean I have an idea of what my properties are worth within $50K each way, but you never know so the majority of people would have no emotion to a correction.
I can see how a recession might bring about a decline in houses prices, but not the other way around.
I mean it's just like share prices, if share prices crashed >10% would it mean the country would dive into recession. Probably not. But if the country did head into recession then share prices would probably "crash" by more than 10%.
That is just nonsense. There are areas around the whole country where there is no more land available. Where my unit is in Sydney there is no land left. The state government is forcing the local council to work towards facilitating multi high rise apartment developments to the tune of thousands. Where is all this land you are talking about here on the Northern Beaches?
REIV clearance rate was just 51% yesterday. That's the lowest level I've seen since I started tracking it in June 2008.
clearance rates are not as reliable as one would think for either lack or increase in demand
That is just nonsense. There are areas around the whole country where there is no more land available. Where my unit is in Sydney there is no land left. The state government is forcing the local council to work towards facilitating multi high rise apartment developments to the tune of thousands. Where is all this land you are talking about here on the Northern Beaches?
Most people that build a new house in sydney dont build it in the northern beaches? Most of the new (net increase in housing supply) would come from the growth area out west i would think. Inner city population growth (housing supply) is harder to obtain. It means one house has to be removed and more than two dwelling need to be put on the same land. Costly and takes time
Here in SA we are building way too many houses for our population growth. Where are these houses and who owns them. They are holiday houses. The amount of people i know that have bought a holiday house in the last eight yrs is amazing. I have an uncle that lives in adelaide that has a house he lives in one part of adelaide, and has a holiday house only 50km away, in another part of adelaide. So for two people they use up two houses. Theres your housing shortage. What would happen if he decides to put one house on the market because he can afford two, and people like him do the same?
Im sure in sydney you would have people that have holiday houses down the coast empty?
Most people that build a new house in sydney dont build it in the northern beaches? Most of the new (net increase in housing supply) would come from the growth area out west i would think. Inner city population growth (housing supply) is harder to obtain. It means one house has to be removed and more than two dwelling need to be put on the same land. Costly and takes time
Here in SA we are building way too many houses for our population growth. Where are these houses and who owns them. They are holiday houses. The amount of people i know that have bought a holiday house in the last eight yrs is amazing. I have an uncle that lives in adelaide that has a house he lives in one part of adelaide, and has a holiday house only 50km away, in another part of adelaide. So for two people they use up two houses. Theres your housing shortage. What would happen if he decides to put one house on the market because he can afford two, and people like him do the same?
Im sure in sydney you would have people that have holiday houses down the coast empty?
That is just nonsense. There are areas around the whole country where there is no more land available.
hello,
so what, you own it, so use it how you like not how the socialist crew want you to
oh yeah, let the freeloaders get in there
thankyou
professor robots
Thank you Kincella for sharing, as always it's a well informed and educated post. Of course you'll get flamed for it, most people don't like to be told that the great crash they've been waiting for is unlikely to happen. But hey, lets listen to the journos coz they obviously know what they're talking about since they publish articles in a newspaper.
I have only read positive articles in the mainstream media in regards to the real estate market. The AFR predicts flat or 0.5% drops.
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