Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

It beggars that anyone thinks Aussie house prices can hold up when the China bubble collapses. This thing is a ticking time bomb!
 
This from Sunrise News this morning:

"Interest rates may have stayed on hold this month, but mortgage holders' stress levels are still through the roof.
Borrowers nationwide are falling behind on their repayments, after 5 interest rate-rises, in just 12 months.
A report shows Western Sydney has the highest delinquency rate.
But Western Australia and Queensland, are the worst performing states overall.
And it's probably going to get worse, with possible rate-rises next year, and Christmas, just around the corner."


I would humbly suggest rising mortgage stress is not postive for house prices.

As for China, they refused US demands to revalue their currency upwards (it would hurt their exporters). So the US is devalueing it's own currency by printing money, which is also devalueing the pegged Yuan. This is causing increasing inflation in both countries.

But if the cost of food increases in both countries, fat Americans will have to live on less Big Macs. Skinny Chinese peasants will have to live on less rice. They can't, and social instability and chaos in China will probably ensue.

A recent story from China talked about how the cost of cabbage had gone from 3 yuan to 4 yuan, and how this was causing pain for millions of peasants earning 150 yuan a month. Imagine 6 yuan cabbage and there will be starvation and social instability.

In order to reign in inflation, China may have to raise interest rates. This will cause less investment in construction in China (less empty cities being built), which will lead to a fall in commodity prices, which would not be positive for Australia's economy.

Another way to reign in inflation would be for China to revalue it's Yuan upwards, so that each yuan buys more rice (and cabbage). But this would make Chinese exports less cheap, and its marginal exporters would begin losing out to other Asian economies.

So the Chinese picture is not all rosy. It has some major problems to deal with in the future. Banking on a continued endless boom may be unwise. This coming year China will attempt to continue maintaining high levels of investment in construction, despite the inflationary effects on basics like food. How long they can continue this for is anyone's guess?

But just remember what happened to the "let them eat cake" French aristocracy, and you can see the problems China has. We live in interesting times.
 
Your view of China is very simple... wait till March and the new five year plan, the rumors are that it contains some surprises for those that think China is export dependent.

I love this stat... 95% of Chinas billionaires have made it on the local market... no export! They have internal momentum and a billion people... this is not a bubble, it is very different in the detail to what has gone on here and in the western world. Sure they will have up and downs but to suggest it will pop in a bubble type dynamic is missing the point of what is happening across Asia.

Anyway, I don't think Oz property needs a China bust to hit a pot hole.
 
So the Chinese picture is not all rosy. It has some major problems to deal with in the future. Banking on a continued endless boom may be unwise. This coming year China will attempt to continue maintaining high levels of investment in construction, despite the inflationary effects on basics like food. How long they can continue this for is anyone's guess?

But just remember what happened to the "let them eat cake" French aristocracy, and you can see the problems China has. We live in interesting times.

A good post greebly24, in considering property as an investment we need to take account of the entire economic environment.

Having you own home to live in of course is an entirely different matter. However the ramping of property that has gone on for the last few years has led a lot of unsuspecting younger couples into a troublesome trap as we see things panning out now.

Those of us who pointed these possibilities out over the last two or three years on these threads copped a considerable caning from posters who have now strangely dissappeared
 
Your view of China is very simple... wait till March and the new five year plan, the rumors are that it contains some surprises for those that think China is export dependent.

I love this stat... 95% of Chinas billionaires have made it on the local market... no export! They have internal momentum and a billion people... this is not a bubble, it is very different in the detail to what has gone on here and in the western world. Sure they will have up and downs but to suggest it will pop in a bubble type dynamic is missing the point of what is happening across Asia.

Anyway, I don't think Oz property needs a China bust to hit a pot hole.

As China internalises to protect itself and ups the anti on shunning the US dollar by trading with for example Russia in roubles we are going to see rates increase by the sheer competition for cashflow.

In 1981 interest rates hit 21%, in Australia. It was of course all blamed on Keating. In fact it was a global cost of money. In my view we have a good chance of revisiting those types of problems again soon. Even 10% rates would be a killer to those who took out mortgages over the last couple of years.

Now these are just my takes, but should not be discounted.

And yes indeed we do live in interesting times
 
Hi Guys,
This's a great thread, & I view it often.

With the interlectual insights on the subject, I feel hardly qualified to add anything.

I remember just a couple of years ago [lead-up to the gfc], my interest rates went from 7.95 to 11.75 before I eventually folded!

This happened all inside a few months [at least with my mortgagee].

It wasn't a welcome event, as I was already over-leveraged [through my own gullibility, re-planet wealth etc.].

But I also remember thinking at the time "just another cycle" where interest rates go up & eventually ease a little etc....Something I had wittnessed many times before, [Bought our first home in '93 when rates were still 13%.]

Any property or investment property since, I have always assumed that I might have to service loans at, at least 10%.

And If the above couldn't be comfortably accomodated, then I would revise the whole viability equasion.

My main concern with real-estate in the past couple of years has been a simplistic one.
All these poor little first home buyers being prodded to take the first home buyers grant, & plunge head-long into mortgages of sometimes $400K+, when the rates had just been 'smacked' down to 4-5% etc.
It appeared nobody wanted to ask "o.k. but what happens when rates creep back toward say 10%?"

Now, I'm hearing nearly every day about what will happen to people if rates increase any further [approx. 8% now I think?] with every increment of 25 basis points higher, the voices grow louder etc.

Well add some of the events unfolding around the world, like what has been refered to on this thread, economies defaulting, money pos. becoming more expensive etc.
and it's not hard to imagine something has to give... [mortgage defaults].

Also, I've been hearing storys [could be wrong] of large off-shore property speculators that appear to be in love with the aussie house market, especially in Melbourne, where they've been brag'n of 20% annual appreciation etc.
The Chineese in particular [one was said to have bought 60 res. properties]

What would happen if some of these 'speculators' see a downturn in our real estate market, & start cashing in or liquidating their holdings, as dispassionately as you would, just unloading unwanted shares etc.

This would add a lot of 'extra' stock, in a market where average people just might be trying to do the same?...& hoping to come out with something!

Is there enough local demand to compensate?

We do live in interesting times indeed!

Vicki:)
 
Has anyone worked out an estimate of the clearance rate for last weekend.

Seems very quiet around here.
 
Has anyone worked out an estimate of the clearance rate for last weekend.

Seems very quiet around here.
Yes it has been a bit quite around here. I don't think the perma bulls have had much to talk about. I reckon this quarter’s prices may come in pretty soft. It'll be interesting to see if REIV can manipulate the data enough to produce a calendar year profit.
 
Wishing you all a Merry Christmas and a properous new year......
might be time for some of you to take a break, and to get out and smell the roses.....

this spending time in the country retreat is doing my head in.... I have no time for blogging, and arguing the point on these sites anymore....

I have some visitors, a pair of grey fantails, nesting in a neighbour's tree, but spending a lot of time in my patch....I had never noticed them before in my life.....but they have my attention now....they are from the willie wagtail family, they damn well attack you, flying very close to within inches.....to scare you away from their nest....
Am spending less time in the backyard now, but have taken up the bird watching from the safety of behind the glass doors in the living room.
They feed on flying insects, and I have noticed (first time in my life) the abundance of tiny flying insects that congregate around the various trees of the neighbours yard, and more so the native frangipani in my backyard.
They are tinier than finches, they do these amazing aerobics, put on an interesting display, and they spend a lot of time watching us. They are inquisitive and can be quite friendly...so am not always sure if they are attacking, or just feeding....
arghh....I dont have time for bird watching......but these birds spend a load of time watching me....
living in the city, guess I lost track of nature
since the rains, and now floods, I have sighted crickets...and other insects, that I have not seen for over 20 or more years....
have a look at these tiny birds here...
http://birdsinbackyards.net/species/Rhipidura-fuliginosa
see what I mean about doing my head in......
hope you all have a wonderful time, and do something different, like take a closer look at nature, all creatures great and small.....

cheers
 
Your view of China is very simple... wait till March and the new five year plan, the rumors are that it contains some surprises for those that think China is export dependent.

I love this stat... 95% of Chinas billionaires have made it on the local market... no export! They have internal momentum and a billion people... this is not a bubble, it is very different in the detail to what has gone on here and in the western world. Sure they will have up and downs but to suggest it will pop in a bubble type dynamic is missing the point of what is happening across Asia.

Pascoe has an ASF login:cautious:
 
hello,

apologies for not posting its just when i do post i get a threatening PM, oh well

oh gidday, nice post Kincella it sure is great what the planet offers

i hope we actually get some discussion on aussie property one day, it seems China has taken over from US, UK and Spain from the previous years, oh well still plenty with no idea

and still wont do anything to the worlds only true paradise, not to worry

great prices on quality still going, thanks fella's

thankyou

professor robots
 
Wishing you all a Merry Christmas and a properous new year......
might be time for some of you to take a break, and to get out and smell the roses.....

this spending time in the country retreat is doing my head in.... I have no time for blogging, and arguing the point on these sites anymore....

I have some visitors, a pair of grey fantails, nesting in a neighbour's tree, but spending a lot of time in my patch....I had never noticed them before in my life.....but they have my attention now....they are from the willie wagtail family, they damn well attack you, flying very close to within inches.....to scare you away from their nest....
Am spending less time in the backyard now, but have taken up the bird watching from the safety of behind the glass doors in the living room.
They feed on flying insects, and I have noticed (first time in my life) the abundance of tiny flying insects that congregate around the various trees of the neighbours yard, and more so the native frangipani in my backyard.
They are tinier than finches, they do these amazing aerobics, put on an interesting display, and they spend a lot of time watching us. They are inquisitive and can be quite friendly...so am not always sure if they are attacking, or just feeding....
arghh....I dont have time for bird watching......but these birds spend a load of time watching me....
living in the city, guess I lost track of nature
since the rains, and now floods, I have sighted crickets...and other insects, that I have not seen for over 20 or more years....
have a look at these tiny birds here...
http://birdsinbackyards.net/species/Rhipidura-fuliginosa
see what I mean about doing my head in......
hope you all have a wonderful time, and do something different, like take a closer look at nature, all creatures great and small.....

cheers
What the hell has this got to do with the Property Forum?

Google is your friend, try posting in the Hippy Haven Forum.

Thank You
 
This made me laugh very hard.

I thought my post was as relevant as anything I have read on this thread over the past 3 years.....
all that opinion about prices crashing, dodgy agents, dodgy information from certain sites......conspiracy theories......
in the meantime ...................
snappy snarlies barking....
like I said....try to smell the roses or something
cheers
 
I thought my post was as relevant as anything I have read on this thread over the past 3 years.....
all that opinion about prices crashing, dodgy agents, dodgy information from certain sites......conspiracy theories......
in the meantime ...................
snappy snarlies barking....
like I said....try to smell the roses or something
cheers

No im not having a dig at you! I acutally agree with you but: Peoples comments dont have to be right, to be funny!
 
What the hell has this got to do with the Property Forum?

Google is your friend, try posting in the Hippy Haven Forum.

Thank You

hello,

hehehehehehehe, oh yeah lets hear about China Us Uk Spain Italy Portugal instead

listen i am going to spell this out again for everybody, the thread is about Australian Property, clear, any post and poster deviating from the title will be treated accordingly

i know we will probably loose heaps of posters but OH WELL, its got well out of hand

its tuff but plenty of other forums around to talk about doom and gloom in bloggosphere,

ps. dont mention police corruption

thankyou
professor robots
 
I thought my post was as relevant as anything I have read on this thread over the past 3 years.....
all that opinion about prices crashing, dodgy agents, dodgy information from certain sites......conspiracy theories......
in the meantime ...................
snappy snarlies barking....
like I said....try to smell the roses or something
cheers

I must have missed something?....So what is your opinion on where the aussie real estate market is headed in the near future?

Conspiracy theories?....Call it what you will, but when there's money & self-interest at heart, then yes of course it's possible for shinanigans to unfold.


Re: The future of Australian property prices
Quote Originally Posted by explod View Post
Has anyone worked out an estimate of the clearance rate for last weekend.

Seems very quiet around here.
Yes it has been a bit quite around here. I don't think the perma bulls have had much to talk about. I reckon this quarter’s prices may come in pretty soft. It'll be interesting to see if REIV can manipulate the data enough to produce a calendar year profit.

I think someone posted earlier that the 'clearance rate' was closer to 50%, not sure which week he was refering to?

Alright, I'll throw a question up.

What do people here think, of the possible effects that a 10% interest rate would have on our 'aussie' R/Estate market?..[assuming rates reach that level].

Vicki:)
 
hello,

hehehehehehehe, oh yeah lets hear about China Us Uk Spain Italy Portugal instead

listen i am going to spell this out again for everybody, the thread is about Australian Property, clear, any post and poster deviating from the title will be treated accordingly

i know we will probably loose heaps of posters but OH WELL, its got well out of hand

its tuff but plenty of other forums around to talk about doom and gloom in bloggosphere,

ps. dont mention police corruption

thankyou
professor robots

Well I sent Robots a P/M a few weeks ago pointing out that questions about my past career were a bit nasty. This is off topic, but a bit on topic as I will explain further shortly)

In the issue at hand I have no idea what my past has to do with where property is going. These and other comments (as just referred to by Vicki) and the sunshine at St Kilda and lolliepops have no relevance whatsoever.

What is happening in China, India, the US, and many other countries has had effects on property prices in the past and the way things look around the globe they are going to have effects again. And interest rates are just one of them. Trade problems and jobs is another aspect.

We cannot discuss the future of Australian Property Prices without discussing economics on a wide scale. In commerce and trade we are no longer an island. We are in whats called the global villiage.

I did not threaten you Robots ole Son but I did hit it back as was served to me. And I would also be most interested to hear my friend how you intend to control this thread as stated above.

And how about not beating around the bush and give us the clearance rate as you used to on a Monday.
 
Top