The future of Australian property prices

[robots]

Well, the guy wanted to know any areas where prices would breakout and i've never seen you make any post about that (now would be a good time to do it).
I mean, all you seem to post is the clearance rates (which you now say mean jack) and post your little trips to the coffee shop...

So who is really posting worthless post?

After all, the banks have nearly everything to do with housing, without them how will people buy houses with only the FHOG as the deposit....like the good ol days

hello,

well thats what people told me over the past 5yrs of posting the clearance rates:

"they mean jack", now you all want to claim them, amazing

i tell you Dowdy its tuff getting a latte down in Geelong man, no 7grams in that joint, oh well

and fifty years ago banks werent around? they loaned money then just like today

i can understand people are looking for answers

thankyou
professor robots

 

[Agentm]

6 days for a 15 story hotel.. amazing!!

 

[MR.]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/money/e...y-auctions-slump/story-e6frfh5f-1225952955621

Revised figures released by the Real Estate Institute of Victoria show the clearance rate last weekend was 59 per cent - two percentage points lower than initially published - because 76 estate agents failed to report properties that had passed in.

The REIV was forced to phone the agents, some of whom said they thought the properties would sell after the auction, to get the missing results during the week.

Think Satanoperca had a good look at these "revised" figures a few months back and they were consistantly revised down!

What will today bring?

 

[satanoperca]

Yes Mr, the figures are generally revised down and some variance must be placed on them anyway. I would say the real clearance rate is at leat 5% lower than the published.

Robots, the clearance rates are hard to interpret week from week but when they were above 80% a few months ago and have dropped below 60% then you could summarise that

A) there has been a significant drop in demand as a result of sellers not meeting current buyers expectation on price and/or buyers simply not being able to access as much credit due to expanding interest rates
B) foreign buyers have left the market due to the high $AU and some have turned into sellers adding to supply
C) Supply has been added to significantly and demand has remand constant.

The more interesting thing is the large volume spike in supply. Why are so many people trying to sell, maybe poor rental returns, maybe many are over committed or that some cannot see property growing at the rates it has over the last two years.

As it is property and cycles are long, only time will tell how resilent the market is. I assume we will start hearing cries for govnuts to waste more money propping up this market.

Cheers

No sunshine today in Melbourne, that is for sure.

Look forward to you reporting Robots, easily under 60% this weekend.

 

[MR.]

Yes Mr, the figures are generally revised down and some variance must be placed on them anyway. I would say the real clearance rate is at leat 5% lower than the published.

Possibly, but for all accounts, as I'd expect you'd agree, as long as these factors remain constant a rise is a rise and a fall is a fall.

A) there has been a significant drop in demand as a result of sellers not meeting current buyers expectation on price and/or buyers simply not being able to access as much credit due to expanding interest rates
B) foreign buyers have left the market due to the high $AU and some have turned into sellers adding to supply
C) Supply has been added to significantly and demand has remained constant.

All very plausable.

The more interesting thing is the large volume spike in supply.

The amount of auctions is higher than previous weeks, but are they higher than the average November? These auctions would have been set well before the interest rate rise so any change there is yet to be felt on the volume side. How much has the volume spiked?

easily under 60% this weekend.

Vendors would have been pressured by the agents and with the media on their side had convinced the vendors to take a good look at their reserves.

 

[robots]

hello,

oh yeah, everyone's on the edge of their seats waiting for the results

explod told me it all means nothing anyway, so oh well, and we cant trust them when they are 80% so cant trust them when they are 58%

what a great day again, got some more trees for the building, fantastic the wildlife going to love them

thankyou
professor robots

 

[Mr Z]

Neither number means much without the surrounding data. Never did, never will....

Historically speaking, it sounds low... what are stock levels like?

 

[MR.]

Auction clearance rates are an historical leading indicator of what's going on in a particular residential property market...................

For Sydney, usually a sustained auction clearance rates of 60%+ provide a leading indicator that prices are rising strongly. Rates < 50% normally indicate falling or stagnant prices.

Last week:
In Sydney, just 58 per cent of the 316 homes under the hammer sold, with $161.7 million total weekend auction revenue compared with $218.4 million on the same Saturday last year.

http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...all-on-rate-rise/story-e6frfmd0-1225949385174

 

[lioness]

Last week:
In Sydney, just 58 per cent of the 316 homes under the hammer sold, with $161.7 million total weekend auction revenue compared with $218.4 million on the same Saturday last year.

http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...all-on-rate-rise/story-e6frfmd0-1225949385174

Any update on Melbourne's result?

 

[MR.]

what are stock levels like?

Melbourne auction volumes last week were 11% higher than the same time the year before. This week they are 7% higher. Other weeks?

The next three weeks will bring more than 1000 auctions each week.

yes lioness, but not for me to post......

 

[medicowallet]

This week: 778
Last Weekend: 669
This time last year: 734

S Sold at Auction: 387
SB Sold before Auction: 81
SA Sold after Auction: 7

Passed in: 303
Passed in on vendor's bid: 193

Clearance rate: 61%


Last year 81%


I don't know why it is down by 25%. Perhaps you can explain why Professor?

 

[robots]

hello,

wouldnt have a clue MW, i just report the figures like you

got a feeling though the REIV has changed its reporting methodology from last year, oh well

thanks to Enzo for getting the results together

my research is and always been on the future of australian property prices and i advise my clients on suburbs, towns and techniques to grow their wealth with property

thankyou
professor robots

 

[lioness]

hello,

wouldnt have a clue MW, i just report the figures like you

got a feeling though the REIV has changed its reporting methodology from last year, oh well

thanks to Enzo for getting the results together

my research is and always been on the future of australian property prices and i advise my clients on suburbs, towns and techniques to grow their wealth with property

thankyou
professor robots

Where is the link professor?

 

[Dowdy]

hello,

my research is and always been on the future of australian property prices and i advise my clients on suburbs, towns and techniques to grow their wealth with property

thankyou
professor robots

Care to share this research so if you are right, you can be self proclaimed to god/ omnipotent/ one above all

 

[satanoperca]

I don't know why it is down by 25%.

The only variable to change is cost of credit, maybe that is attributing to how much people can afford.

Would love to hear a professors thoughts?

Cheers

 

[MR.]

Hey MW, that house of yours is positioned precariously on the edge of a cliff. Whenever there's erosion of the sort and if you’re not alone, the Government usually takes measures to prop your house back up.

Or is that council? Perhaps just earthworks are required!

 

[Agentm]

This week: 778
Last Weekend: 669
This time last year: 734

S Sold at Auction: 387
SB Sold before Auction: 81
SA Sold after Auction: 7

Passed in: 303
Passed in on vendor's bid: 193

Clearance rate: 61%


Last year 81%


I don't know why it is down by 25%. Perhaps you can explain why Professor?

reiv deliberately misquotes..

last week they proclaimed 61%, BUT ACTUAL WAS A LOT LOWER

it was way worse than reported, at 59%

today they are reporting at bogus figure of 61% for saturday, with 139 of the 778 not reported as usual

my guess it that history will repeat and the actual will be a revision far lower than the all important psychological 60%

 

[MR.]

reiv deliberately misquotes..

last week they proclaimed 61%, BUT ACTUAL WAS A LOT LOWER

it was way worse than reported, at 59%

today they are reporting at bogus figure of 61% for saturday, with 139 of the 778 not reported as usual

my guess it that history will repeat and the actual will be a revision far lower than the all important psychological 60%

IMO the REIV isn't deliberately misquoting Saturdays results as that is the information at hand. Is it the REIV's fault some agents drag their feet to report their outcomes?

What I find misrepresenting by the REIV is when the REIV claims:

The clearance rate this weekend is 61 per cent, compared to last weekends 59 per cent.

Oooh The result is much better than last week
The market must be getting better! 2% up!

Fine if the figure stays at 61% but it isn't! (last week's initial report was also 61% before it dropped to 59% but the REIV isn't telling us that bit this week)

Agentm, what do you mean "139 not reported as usual"?
Do you mean the 193 ?

 

[medicowallet]

Hey MW, that house of yours is positioned precariously on the edge of a cliff. Whenever there's erosion of the sort and if you’re not alone, the Government usually takes measures to prop your house back up.

Or is that council? Perhaps just earthworks are required!

Oh that is just representative of, I dunno, perhaps an investment property purchased within the last 6 months or so.

Purchased up there in the sky, and poised to fall down a bit.

Man, I wouldn't have wanted to have purchased anything over the past 6 months or so, as the values are going to be coming under pressure, and with increasing interest rates, servicing the debt becomes troublesome.

I have no housing debt, so falls in price do not bother me.

Plenty of sunshine, lollipops, sherbet, icecream and bubble gum.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

am really looking forward to the big drop in interest rates that will come again....
just 2 days out from the year end, and all those horrid figures coming out so soon...just wait for all the worst figures to be reported in the next 3 months
retail spending is the worst in 25 years....etc

those 6 rate hikes in as many months cruelled the economy....Swan and Rudd had no idea, so with all the pressure from them the RBA kept upping the rates...in order to substantiate Swan and Rudds foolish lies, that the economy was strong under their leadership....

am afraid Gen Y has finally succumbed to the reality that they are not affected by the GFC.....notice a large number of shops in Chapel st have closed their doors....so the kids have stopped spending

the banks have tightened lending, so it will be harder for the kids....
they will have a chance again with the coming lower interest rates, but they need to get out of the inner suburbs, and buy affordable houses in the outer suburbs......just an easy half hour drive on our great freeways....

due to the political fiasco of the past 2 years, and now the looming elections, investors have held tight.....hence the low building approval numbers...means less housing available in the future...
with a federal election in the coming months, most investors will probably wait for the result before making a move....
but others will be gearing up, ready to pounce with the lower rates....and the prime house sales period of Spring should surprise the average punter....

the kids who took advantage of the low rates in 2008, and ignored the doomsdayers warning, are feeling pretty smug now, with average 20% gains..those who missed it last time, will not miss it this time.....

just another window of opportunity.....all other developed economies have not raised their rates after dropping them in 2007.....australia was the only mug country to raise rates.....we can blame the gang of 4 for that disaster...
so whilst the GFC phrase 2 plays out for another year or two, astute investors will be preparing for the next bonanza, as the world recovers from the GFC.....
there will be some stunning opportunites for the smarter ones, who are cashed up and can obtain finance.....
the small superfund investors have started buying commercial properties again...and the asians are in on this too....spending 23 million in just a day or so...
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...s-shopping-again/story-e6frg9gx-1225886373571

ps... that fiasco with the mining tax yesterday is not a done deal....just more smoke and mirrors to suck in the voters.....watch out for the angst from the small miners, and the backlash on that front.....it will not be good for the stock market....

Hey Kincy, rates appear to be moving in the opposite direction to what you foretold 4 months ago. Does this mean that you were completely wrong? Because from what I am seeing, those who bought this year are screaming. I mean all this hoo hahh and interest rates are only 4.75%! Can you explain it please? I heard a rumour that it's no good thinking 'property is for the long term', if you can't afford to keep hold of it in the short term. Must be rubbish. Property doubles every 7 years at least!

By the way, how's your '10% a year every year' capital growth model coming along? Are you going to revise it this year?