The future of Australian property prices

[MR.]

However we shall see.

Put some "House Sales from Eight Capital cities" (ABS) into the chart and this is how it looked.

I remember Bots..... House prices are all about "supply and demand" not interest rates!

 

[robots]

hello,

thats great MR, in my 5yrs of posting at ASF i have never mentioned Supply & Demand and believe it plays no role what so ever

but yes I have mentioned some of the following:

parardise, utopia, the supreme whitelight

i am only reporting the auction clearance rates, so wouldnt have a clue man,

all i know is i would hate to be 55+ on the pension and not OWN the roof over my head

thankyou
professor robots

 

[So_Cynical]

wouldnt have a clue man,

all i know is i would hate to be 55+ on the pension and not OWN the roof over my head.

robots

LOL robots

At last something we can agree on.

 

[Dowdy]

Yen and Swiss Franc both continued to drop--still are.
Gold yes
Equities which he avoided ---yes.


I don't really want to change topics but i have to reply....

Japanese Yen - UP
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/JY/W

Swiss Franc - UP
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SF/W


Prices always revert back to their fundamentals

The fact that they actually do this well after people realise that the fundamentals as "they" see them have changed so dramatically that they miss the boat---has made me a motzza over the years.
I find fundamentalists get "Value" wrong more often than not.
Bless their little cotton socks.

So where do you see the fundamentals in the housing sector going?

 

[tech/a]

Said it before and Ill say it again.

There will be pockets of sharp pullbacks and pockets of opportunity but in general a buy and hold strategy will see the majority in my view Flat.

Best to develop in these times in areas of demand.
Doing OK off industrial and just purchased the next Parcel for industrial development.

Those of us holding are enjoying excellent return on old investment (1996-2001).
Not to mention the capital gain.
Gearing even with the new Property is 38%.

 

[MR.]

hello,

thats great MR, in my 5yrs of posting at ASF i have never mentioned Supply & Demand and believe it plays no role what so ever

but yes I have mentioned some of the following:

parardise, utopia, the supreme whitelight

i am only reporting the auction clearance rates, so wouldnt have a clue man,

all i know is i would hate to be 55+ on the pension and not OWN the roof over my head

thankyou
professor robots

Sorry there Bots lost me way there a little with all the guessing.
There is no place like OZ, I agree........

Hey, time to report the auction clearance rates is it?

Hey, I think we have a clear winner.

 

[robots]

hello,

well done MR. superb call brother 61%

amazing, what a great day

i reckon you should get a bottle for that one

thankyou
professor robots

 

[MR.]

Cheers, drop it in on your way past.....

 

[medicowallet]

"The interest rate increase has certainly had an impact on buyer confidence this weekend with a clear drop in the clearance rate compared to the past few months.

Some buyers will be concerned that more banks will increase rates independent of the Reserve Bank.

This also means November is shaping as a month with good opportunities for buyers; with 588 auction results reported this weekend, 920 expected next weekend followed by two weekends with just over 1000 auctions. This will see around 3600 auctions in November, the highest number of auctions in any month this year.

The clearance rate from this weekends auction is 61 per cent. There have been 588 auctions reported, 359 sold, 229 passed in, 152 of those on a vendors bid.

This weekend last year saw 524 auctions with a clearance rate of 81 per cent."


I posted the report for everyone to glance at.

Professor, what does it mean when:
a) last year it was 81% now it is 61%
b) Interest rates are not even up for the other banks
c) 3600 Auctions this month

I look forward to your input.

Kind regards, with plenty of sparkles, rainbows, bubbles and fruity pop pops


Medicowallet

 

[nunthewiser]

The Perth housing market has endured its worst three-month price drop in 20 years, wiping $20,000 off the value of median-priced homes across the metropolitan area.

Perth median house prices fell 4 per cent to $480,000 in the three months to September, with the mortgage belt and battler suburbs of Wellard and Orelia the hardest hit with drops of about 4.5 per cent.

If the trend continues, Perth homeowners will suffer an annualised reduction of 16 per cent, or about $75,000, on a median-priced home.

The last quarter undermines steady improvements over the year, in which median house prices rose 3.8 per cent across the State.

Real Estate Institute of WA president Alan Bourke said the sharp reduction was due to a flood of listings at the same time as buyers were shying away from the market.

The number of homes on the market jumped 38 per cent in the year to September, to 15,500 listings in the last quarter. Sales dropped 37 per cent in the same year.
"Some areas are experiencing the strongest buyers' markets we've seen in decades," Mr Bourke said. "There are some nervous investors out there who are worried about rising interest rates and weak rental yields."

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/mp/8268708/perth-housing-market-slumps-to-20-year-low/

all sunshine and lollipops brothers..

great call nun

 

[robots]

hello,

yeah well done Nun, another ASF legend

wouldnt have a clue MW, i am just like Bigdog reporting the data

all just reinforces the silly move by the RBA during the week

thankyou
professor robots

 

[wayneL]

hello,

yeah well done Nun, another ASF legend

wouldnt have a clue MW, i am just like Bigdog reporting the data

all just reinforces the silly move by the RBA during the week

thankyou
professor robots

Why was it a silly move?

 

[CamKawa]

Buyers will begin holding back from this weekend IMHO and so expect a drop in the clearance rate, I will say 62% and less next week.

Only out by 1% not a bad forecast.

 

[Dowdy]

Only out by 1% not a bad forecast.

what's the forecast for next week - down, up, flat?

 

[Mofra]

GREAT STUFF Mofra !!! Now when you walk cap in hand to the bank manager and ask for money what is the first words out of his/her mouth?

"Do you own your own home?" ........ all downhill after that. The lending system is geared to loan money on the PPOR. Period. Rightly or wrongly it is a fact of life. The banks look for stability. This is the model that they use. Not my rules. THEIRS.

Absolutely and utterly wrong Transpotter - the question should be "do you have any equity?".

I have worked for both securitised and non-securitised lenders (big 4 bank) and existing residential property ranks equally as equity regardless of being for Investment or O/O purposes - industry wide practice.

http://www.brokernews.com.au/news/anz-lifts-lvr-to-95/41346

Might pay to read the article; although it isn't strictly relevant to the discussion at hand it doesn't mention ANZ discrimninating against whether a property is for O/O or Investment purposes

 

[MR.]

The clearance rate from this weekends auction is 61 per cent. There have been 588 auctions reported, 359 sold, 229 passed in, 152 of those on a vendors bid.

Saturday only REIV auctions (above) had a 61.05% clearance rate.

Saturday and Sunday:

The clearance rate from this weekends auction is 61 per cent. There have been 633 auctions reported, 383 sold, 250 passed in, 166 of those on a vendors bid.

That clearance rate calculates to 60.506% just one house off a quoted 60% clearance rate. Last week had a clearance of 67% before the interest rate rise.

Professor,

"means nothing anyway, remember"

 

[explod]

what's the forecast for next week - down, up, flat?

There will be a great deal on the value of property in the media this week, huge ramping. However there will also be a further awakening among people with debt and who are struggling. This is an ugly scenario and I feel very sorry for those not educated in finance who were sucked in.

On that basis I am going for a further drop but not as great, 58%

 

[cutz]

Yeah it's looking rather creepy, http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...all-on-rate-rise/story-e6frfmd0-1225949385174 .

But surely, clearance rates should recover once vendors start slashing prices.

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Yeah it's looking rather creepy, http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...all-on-rate-rise/story-e6frfmd0-1225949385174 .

But surely, clearance rates should recover once vendors start slashing prices.

What's also interesting to note, is that the previous weekend had over 1,000 auctions and cleared 67% whereas this weekend had 633 auctions and cleared only 61%.

What that equates to is:

Approx 670 auctions sold last week and only 383 sold this week.

Hmm....

 

[explod]

Yeah it's looking rather creepy, http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...all-on-rate-rise/story-e6frfmd0-1225949385174 .

But surely, clearance rates should recover once vendors start slashing prices.

An interesting point. There is an old trading adage that goes like this, "never try to catch a falling knife"

The big one is sentiment, like when the Beetles were in favour, every young fellow had to have long hair and of course the reverse applies. If prices have levelled out buyers will consider they have time and instinctively hold back and the sentiment builds on itself. When prices were rising there was a feeling to rush in before prices went too high which of course drives it higher, it is self fulfilling.

The psycological effects are the same across all types of markets and in trading too. However only more time will tell.