The future of Australian property prices

[wayneL]

hello,

no, and just to remind everybody the thread is about aussie property prices, not spain, italy, ireland, US, Uk or New Zealand

There is some degree of correlation in western property markets. As such, comments, analysis, projections etc of these markets may have some relevance to the Oz market .

 

[explod]

hello,


thankyou
professor robots

And the thank you is not required Professor, we thank you for the circus entertainment.

How high can it all go Champ, looking for some real insight from you this weekend.

 

[robots]

Hello,

i gave my prediction just the other night and it got deleted explod, how's that hey? oh well

so the US has non-recourse loans, NINJA loans, build whole suburbs then plonk them on the market, invade other countries for no reason, carry on

any correlation with Australia yet? no worries

must say though Explod, you are definitely the most improved poster here at ASF, the change i have witnessed in you is outstanding, well done man

thankyou
professor robots

 

[wayneL]

any correlation with Australia yet?

Oz prices went down pretty much in line with the rest of the western world in 2008.

The correlation factor is of course not 1.0, but a degree of correlation is obvious.

 

[robots]

hello,

yeah went down a little, but i dont think st kilda units hit that 50% drop! remember that one WayneL

oh well, and back up a little in 2009 and 2010, any other countries kicking along like Aus?

thankyou
professor robots

 

[wayneL]

hello,

yeah went down a little, but i dont think st kilda units hit that 50% drop! remember that one WayneL

Neither did 4 bedroom Somerset detached houses... or Wimbledon apartments, or Auckland houses

oh well, and back up a little in 2009 and 2010, any other countries kicking along like Aus?

As property investors are fond of saying, there are markets within markets. Some markets are doing OK, even in the US.

 

[financialdonk]

Hello,

so the US has non-recourse loans, NINJA loans, build whole suburbs then plonk them on the market, invade other countries for no reason, carry on

any correlation with Australia yet? no worries

You do realise that Australia has been in collaboration with the US invading other countries don't you?

I read this thread regularly and find your sign offs and general waffle extremely tedious. I am not saying you should stop, but why do you bother? It saddens me.

 

[Dowdy]

hello,

no, and just to remind everybody the thread is about aussie property prices, not spain, italy, ireland, US, Uk or New Zealand

so hopefully those posts with data/info regarding any of the above listed countries is swiftly removed from the thread to keep it on track

otherwise a "mega" property thread maybe an idea, although the true visionaries of society will probably still get victimised

thankyou
professor robots

Well, i know what it's like first hand in the USA. I'm travelling there now and seen the effects on how bad it is and how bad is isn't

 

[nunthewiser]

Well, i know what it's like first hand in the USA. I'm travelling there now and seen the effects on how bad it is and how bad is isn't

A very close friend of mine lives in L.A, He travels the continent quite a bit and has lived in various citys in the U.S.

Not once has he had any caps busted in his a$$ , but he did tell me about a crack ho he was married to for a while.

He also mentioned the massive developments and suburbs sitting empty and derelicted even tho there is massive homelessness problems in these areas.

could never happen in australia tho apparently because everyone here can afford a roof over there heads

Have fun in your travels

 

[Dowdy]

A very close friend of mine lives in L.A, He travels the continent quite a bit and has lived in various citys in the U.S.

Not once has he had any caps busted in his a$$ , but he did tell me about a crack ho he was married to for a while.

He also mentioned the massive developments and suburbs sitting empty and derelicted even tho there is massive homelessness problems in these areas.

could never happen in australia tho apparently because everyone here can afford a roof over there heads

Have fun in your travels

No worries, thanks for that.

I've been to LA, NYC, Washington DC, Philly, Miami, Orlando, PA, Texas, Memphis, Tenasee and i'm going to a few more in the next few weeks.

I'll tell you what it's like here....

The bad: there are homeless people alot everywhere. The most disturbing thing though is that some of them look no older then me (25) and they have signs saying "lost my job, have no money. Will take abuse for money..." and then you get the funny homeless in NYC "need money for alcohol and weed... at least i'm not bull****ting you." There were alot of homeless people in Philly in the local park in the city - It would be like going down to the Botanical Gardens and seeing about 50 people around the running track.
Alot of the local strip shops are empty and bordered up. To put into perspective, it'll be like going down to melton or carlton with their strip shops and seeing them bordered up. The worst area i've been to is Niagra Falls - alot of houses were bordered up (whole streets actually) and the place has gone downhill. I haven't seen any tent cities in LA but i haven't been around the bad areas in LA and don't know where they are.

The good: the night life is still very active and restaurants look very busy all the time and the big shopping centres are still full of people. I guess it's hard for them to ease up on their 70-80% consumption lifestyle but there's no incentive to save when interest rates are so low. The best airport i've been to was in Detroit. Didn't get to explore the town since it was on a stop over

 

[robots]

Hello,

its probably also a bigger issue at the moment FinancialDonk because everyone else has disappeared and I am keeping the show going for ASF. I am up to 20 now who just vanished, amazing, i dont know whats going on

although hang on, havent heard from MrZ for a while, so 21, oh well

so its just my informative posts "standing" out a bit more i guess, cheer up man

whats that got to do with Aussie property though Dowdy? could you do us a favor, get into walmart and check out the guns, take sum photos with an Uzi, 9mm or a Bazooka

thankyou
Professor Robots

You do realise that Australia has been in collaboration with the US invading other countries don't you?

I read this thread regularly and find your sign offs and general waffle extremely tedious. I am not saying you should stop, but why do you bother? It saddens me.

Well, i know what it's like first hand in the USA. I'm travelling there now and seen the effects on how bad it is and how bad is isn't

 

[nukz]

Sounds like somebody has a vested interest in property eh robots, most your posts don't really make any sense but as long as ya happy that's ok.

With a sharp rise in real estate prices in 2009 we are not going to see anything like that for quite sometime i see it as being two options, either intrest rates will bite and investors will bail on property's which will cause a domino effect.

The only other thing i can think of is almost negative growth for the next 4-5 years on property here so the market 'catches up with prices' if you will. This option could also turn out to be a long downturn cycle.

I'm quite wary of the appartment/unit market in Melbourne especially in the CBD as there are thousands of places being built right now and who knows who is going to fill them my thinking is that history will repeat itself with another CBD oversupply like in 2000.

That being said inner suburbs that are dependent on immigration(eg. eastern suburb's and inner suburbs & West/Northern suburbs) could also be hit as i see there was a article in the age last week stating net immigration has dropped 37% this year.

 

[kincella]

the property bears outnumber the bulls.....it is a free country, freedom of choices, freedom of speech....for both sides.....
if it were not for Robots keeping the thread going, ASF would lose its advertising sponsors..... so it is in the interests of ASF to keep the forum going.....
I would ask ASF to stop the personal attacks against Robots....posters should be able to argue the point of the subject.....without the use of a personal attack against another poster, and his beliefs...
I suspect many came across from the global houseprice crash forum...after it closed down for lack of interest.....it was so full of bears, that any bull could not be bothered posting....and the bears lost interest when they had no one to argue with... is this really what you want.....
to close down the thread.....
ASF bosses may beg to differ...it is in their interest to keep it going....

 

[tech/a]

Those who prosper in property will continue to do so.
Those who are afraid/don't understand "their" risk exposure wont.
Same for those in business and those who trade shares/futures/precious metals/
art/coins-----

 

[Dowdy]

Hello,


whats that got to do with Aussie property though Dowdy? could you do us a favor, get into walmart and check out the guns, take sum photos with an Uzi, 9mm or a Bazooka

thankyou
Professor Robots

Because you keep making these dummy comments on a country you've never been to or seen before. If you want to learn something new, don't be so narrow with generalised comments

suspect many came across from the global houseprice crash forum...after it closed down for lack of interest.....it was so full of bears, that any bull could not be bothered posting....and the bears lost interest when they had no one to argue with... is this really what you want.....
to close down the thread.....

Threads don't get closed down for lack of interest. It was most likely closed down due to trolls on the forum. You know, those people who make claims like they're professors and such.....

 

[explod]

Threads don't get closed down for lack of interest. It was most likely closed down due to trolls on the forum. You know, those people who make claims like they're professors and such.....

Yep its the empty tin can that makes the most noise. Or was that "vessels"

May not hear you for the din though.

Wonderfull sunny day at Mount Martha for a change. Lovely properties along the water front here and are bullet proof. No debt, no worries.

 

[c-unit]

The only other thing i can think of is almost negative growth for the next 4-5 years on property here so the market 'catches up with prices' if you will. This option could also turn out to be a long downturn cycle.

I'm quite wary of the appartment/unit market in Melbourne especially in the CBD as there are thousands of places being built right now and who knows who is going to fill them my thinking is that history will repeat itself with another CBD oversupply like in 2000.

Would like to hear a few more of your thoughts regarding this area of Melbourne's market nukz. I'm looking to buy my first place, an apartment in Southbank within 5 years but am waiting for when/if prices to come down.

I see the volume of new apartment building constructions when I go in to work each day, but as I'm only young I am not sure how this compares with the 2000 oversupply you mentioned (which I believe was in Docklands?).

Cheers

 

[robots]

Would like to hear a few more of your thoughts regarding this area of Melbourne's market nukz. I'm looking to buy my first place, an apartment in Southbank within 5 years but am waiting for when/if prices to come down.

I see the volume of new apartment building constructions when I go in to work each day, but as I'm only young I am not sure how this compares with the 2000 oversupply you mentioned (which I believe was in Docklands?).

Cheers

Hello,

yes there is 5 billion of "new" apartment construction in the pipeline for the next few years scattered around melbourne CBD and inner c-unit

a "distressed" sale maybe a very real option in that sector but poor performance may still continue with the ease at which a tower can be built

satanoperca can give us some input into the docklands area

thankyou
professor robots

 

[sinner]

Those who prosper in property will continue to do so.
Those who are afraid/don't understand "their" risk exposure wont.
Same for those in business and those who trade shares/futures/precious metals/
art/coins-----

Thanks Captain Obvious? Of course the profitable will remain profitable and the unprofitable will remain unprofitable in all markets of supply and demand. But what is your take on the future of Australian property prices, tech/a?

To everyone - these are the sort of things we should be talking about:

* Do you believe markets like housing to be long-term cyclical in nature? Do you think house prices viewed cyclically are overbought or oversold?
* What are the contributing factors to the current upward trend, are these factors simple or complex, are they sustainable?
* What are the current mitigating factors on this trend? Are they going to increase or decrease in severity?
* Acknowledging we can't predict the future, but also the value of evaluating possible likely outcomes: What are the consequences of this upward trend continuing (and at what velocity)? Are always uptrending house prices actually good? What are the consequences of this upward trend ending/reversing (and at what velocity)? Will a correction be rough or soft, will it be healthy or unhealthy?

Trotting out pundit quotes, anecdotes and even statistics are useless if you are just bringing them here to win a tick for "your side". The data needs to be framed in the context of the above questions, as an aide in trying to answer them.

We should all try harder.

 

[wayneL]

Those who prosper in property will continue to do so.
Those who are afraid/don't understand "their" risk exposure wont.
Same for those in business and those who trade shares/futures/precious metals/
art/coins-----

Nothing is ever so black and white, them and us.

I've known plenty who have "prospered" in property go broke, and those afraid of risk eventually take the plunge and change their circumstances.

There are a whole gamut of results due to skill, lack of skill, good timing, bad timing, and just plain old randomness.