The future of Australian property prices

[trainspotter]

how the hell do i put this whole thread on ignore , its always on the top of latest posts and like a car accident im drawn to reading it . if i cant see it i wont look at it .......... i need help .........

its like politics or AFL threads ... full of one eyed supporters that "" generally "" fail to see both points of view .....

Thanks ginar .... I will "generally" try and see the one eyed suporters POV. But it seems I have throat infection in my eyeballs. I cannot see what they are saying.

Boy am I gonna look stooopid when the RE market falls by 40% Mr Keen.

 

[Mr Z]

Ohhhhhh... a 'launch'.... WOW! I am just blown away

I really prefer my 'stick and rags' but to each their own.

What? You thought jealousy perhaps?

Oh and you know I for one have not made any large % predictions about changes in the property market. Merely stated that the fundamentals favor the bears.... but then price is all that counts eh? : Not really sure what old spotty has been railing against, seems to like seeing polarization of discussion. Anyway I have found the ignore so toodle pip spotty knickers! I said goodbye to YOU dear heart, not the thread.

Robots you look like an alter ego, a sock puppet... I'd not bandy about the word troll too much dear heart.

Have we considered demographics people. Who owns what, when they are likely to want to sell and in what shape the following generations are, size, financial strength etc.... Boom boom boom.... Boomers are passionate about their property, especially the late ones... Just a thought.... the big fat self fulfilling prophecy that they have been!

High interest rates are probable... its just a matter of time, apparently the whole bond market bubble has been lost on some. We can't afford to buy into the idea of continued cheap funding.... in fact it appears that the bank are already taking mitigating steps in seeking higher credit quality.

Oh my.... he used the term "one eyed" jeeze.... gimme a break LOL

 

[trainspotter]

You still here Mr Z ? Would you care for a glass of champers perhaps?

Did you agree with me when you wrote this? "We can't afford to buy into the idea of continued cheap funding.... in fact it appears that the bank are already taking mitigating steps in seeking higher credit quality."


when I wrote this "I have written that interest rates are beginning to bite and slow the lending. I have also given reasons as to why this lending has stopped with banks having less access to wholesale funds. I have asked others to proffer their views as to why this is happening."

Still waiting for robots to lose his bowels. I think he is made of sterner stuff.

 

[robots]

hello,

here we go, onto the bond market now

fascinating, how much money do the banks source offshore? 10% 20% 30% 60%

workmate just settling on another joint next thursday, plenty still around

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[Mr Z]

Sock puppets are sock puppets... they don't really exist now do they?

You are hung up on the poop line.... what pouting because I will not brag? It's not very becoming.

Why am I still getting emails when you post, how annoying.

Don't do bubble's, no class... dreadful stuff!

You never stopped to consider that I have not attacked a lot of what you have said.... you seem to like charging windmills Don! Ranting about 30% corrections and the like... certainly claims not made in our discussion.

I think you just like peeing up walls.

 

[Mr Z]

here we go, onto the bond market now

yeah cause like he just started ranting about the bond market like that has anything to do with houses man these old dudes are sooooo stoooooopid.


You know that although there are many non recourse states when it comes to mortgage debt in the US the act of default still carries a stiff penalty in terms of credit rating. Once a jingle mailer has jingled they are likely to hit penalty rates on credit cards (yes even if its and unrelated default... read the fine print) and of course they will not be able to finance diddley swat for many years afterwards. Aside from the fact that they may preserve more wealth (if they have it) the experience would not be that dissimilar to going through a personal bankruptcy given most people circumstances. The difference in that area is not as great as the glib on liner would have it, the devil is in the detail.

Unless you are crafty enough to have re-bought prior to default... people are doing that! New house new mortgage, roll all the cc and car debt into the old house then default. I know of people that have sat down done the sums and decided to do it for no other reason than the sums made sense and they where too far upside down on the current house. We are talking, employed good payers here! Just blind siding their bank... LOL only in the US!

Whoops sorry... its not directly about the price fish at todays market.... naughty me.

 

[nunthewiser]

*WARNING*

Low content post to follow.


ROFLMAO

love this thread

 

[robots]

and he is having troubles funding himself? Oh please....

Point me to this competition if you will, I would like to read up just for fun.

hello,

oh yeah Nun, its just awesome the thread and this one got me on the floor last night

whats a sock puppet? and thanks MrZ for your contributions to the thread

thankyou
robots

 

[Mr Z]

I presume "ASF investor of the year" is the result of some competition... eh?

So where is the record of it? Just curious and too lazy to try finding it.

Should it be "ASF investor of the financial year"...? Can't be of the year now can it really cause 2010 is not done yet, and that would just be presumptuous

How is it that "investor of the year", 5 years running has issues with funding? Just curious, you never did say.

A researcher that can't use google to determine the meaning of a colloquial term like "sock puppet"....hmmmm interesting.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=sock+puppet

I'm settling on my custom fitted 737 next week Whats that you say? Not very credible?

 

[nunthewiser]

MrZ dont let it worry ya.

I wouldnt lie to you , so when i say robots is a living legend there is no need for me to provide proof

you could always try google tho if you wish to enquire further into this competition thats been running since around 2004........ a good researcher would find it.

thankyou for the giggles tho

 

[trainspotter]

Has robots sheeted gold bricks yet? It is hard to keep up with his status these days ... I tell ya ! Legend one day ... mere associate professor the next.

Mr Z ... did you pay for your custom 737 with gold? Credibility still intact mind you. I am that gullible.

Ahem ... house prices eh? Yeah ... fundamentally it would not be a good idea to invest in property seeing how the Reserve Bank has increased interest rates to curb the breakaway property prices of late. Seems to be working too.
Also has stifled inflation and has put of alot of FHB out of action with the reduction of the grant. Noted that prices nationally have dropped by nearly 1% over a twelve month period.

Government went hard at FHB with the 21 thousand dollars to leverage them into owning a home. (part of the stimulus package I believe) NOW RBA has upped the rate of affordability to slow down this dangerous runaway train wreck that "could" go into dangerous territory if the moons and stars align.

See Bushmans post as to WHY this could possibly happen, which has my vote as post of the month in the property thread.

Has robots taken a golden dump yet? Anyways ... like Mr Z said ... "man these old dudes are sooooo stoooooopid."

Nothing like experience over youth IMO.

 

[Mr Z]

Errrrrrr why yeah, sure I paid with gold, what ever you want

I'm in the presences of property royalty then, living legends as it where.

So what do we think of what has been going on in the IRS market?

 

[trainspotter]

Heyyyyyyyy ..... you said you had me on ignore. ??? Kewl that you paid for a refitted 737 in gold. I once paid for 4000 litres in diesel in loose nuggets of approx the same value. That is my extent in gold trading.

Anyways ... robots is the guru when it comes to property.

What do I think has been happening with IRS market? Are we talking about the USA market or the Australian one here? Or are you talking about Credit Default Swaps? I reckon it is the single largest source of systemic risk in the global financial markets and is why Lehman brothers et al made their coin on the riduclulous rents they charged on the swaps.

 

[Mr Z]

Interest Rate Swaps.... dig a little CYA.

 

[Mr Z]

you could always try google tho if you wish to enquire further into this competition thats been running since around 2004........ a good researcher would find it.

Why waste time? Seriously... no fun in it, no gain in it. If I don't get spoon fed this one I can't be bothered.

 

[trainspotter]

Interest Rate Swaps.... dig a little CYA.

Why don't you start a new thread with the same title then? I will be more than happy to discourse with you there as well. You can tell everyone about 30 day bills and 10 year future swaps. I can offer my opinion as to what a pivotal role CDS played in the GFC.

Meanwhile back at the ranch:- Australia currently has a two-speed property market whereby demand remains strong in Melbourne and Sydney but is faltering everywhere else, a real estate specialist has said.

http://mozo.com.au/home-loans/articles/expert-australia-has-a-two-speed-property-market/800025360

Western Australia and Queensland sales on the other hand are retreating at a rapid rate. Vendors are having to adjust their prices down to suit the economic demand.

Now we wait.

P.S. Has robots evacuated his rear end yet?

 

[kincella]

Dick Smiths documentary on why too large population growth has affected house prices....
all the people waiting for the house price crash, or a slowdown....really should have a look at dick smith's documentary...was on the abc last night
he cited the example of half a million new residents in one year alone....130k's natural births, the rest were immigrants...
key points...the govnuts are not building any infrastructure eg houses, hospitals, shopping centres to cater for the increase...
if you put all of the 500,000 new residents together in one place, it would be a decent sized major suburb....which would require everything people would expect
instead of the govnuts closing land for parks, they should be releasing more land for housing
only if they cut the immigration intake dramatically, and build hundreds of thousands of new homes...will the prices come down...
not one state govnut, or federal govnut is proposing to do anything to the change the status quo....
until they do...and it is dramatic....
you will need a plan B now....if you keep waiting, you will be too old, as in an aged pensioner, and then the banks wont lend to you, when you find that house in your price bracket...
ps the building industry represents 10% of the economy...which all govnuts are aware of, no wonder they keep turnng out stimulous packages....
ps a hint for those with a keen eye on house prices...
there will be a steady flow of immigrants to regional centres, cause the housing is cheaper out there....
the droughts broken in central nsw and vic, the dams are now full, the cockies will be spending and hiring again

the only problem in some places is the current govt resources tax...get rid of that govnut and that tax,,,and it will be rosy again

 

[kincella]

look at this article....units jumped 50% in price in sydney...so the kids can stay closer to work and the cbd
some great money being made there...
extracts only.....
THE capital growth of apartments continues to outstrip houses, with some rising in value by more than 50 per cent in less than a year.
One woman who purchased a Bondi Junction apartment a year ago for $335,000 sold the property for $532,000 in April, according to McGrath.

Investor Christine Miller, who made $170,000 this month on the unit she bought in Summer Hill during 2006 for $275,000, said she had used the money to purchase two small investment properties in Punchbowl in Sydney's west. "They were very cheap and the returns were very good," she said. Already, those units had appreciated in value 20 per cent, she added
and in brissy....
Over the past five years, units have recorded average annual value growth of 7.4 per cent compared with 7.1 per cent for houses, according to RP Data.

(oh whats this...the magical 10% growth figure I use)

In the past 10 years, average annual value growth of houses has been 9.9 per cent compared with 8 per cent for units.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...houses-in-growth/story-e6frg6nf-1225905090064

 

[kincella]

Morning Robots and other property investors....
the idea of living in the country has posed a few problems,a change of lifestyle that I will need to adapt to.....
after living in a unit in the heart of Melb....geez
suddenly I have to look after the garden, I had forgotten how much time and effort was involved there....regardless if one has a maintenance person to look after the lawns etc.....
the costs really start adding up when you have a couple of properties....
$50 bucks an hour is not bad money for running a lawn mower around every week , all the wind and storms here lately, the damn leaves all over the place....grrrr
so now I am looking at an artificial lawn....good for between 5-10 years...big cost savings to be had there...so the lawn maintenance on just one house, with the tiniest lawn area, plus the nature strip say $75 x 52 is $3900 pa
whereas with an artificial lawn laid...estimated to cost about $4000.....
so say 10 years savings on maintenance at $3900 pa = $39000
for an initial cost of only about one tenth.....
lost all my initial set up costs for the garden on 2 houses....about $10,000 after the drought wiped out all the lawns...and the water restrictions that applied...lost some stunning old trees too
artificial lawn will not be affected by the drought, if it arrives again...
big savings on the water bill too....
I think this is a great way to go...and more country people should be looking at artificial grass.....
I will still need a maintenance person, or gardener to look after the balance of the garden....but less often...
one property is on a corner block...with a massive nature strip up to 5 metres deep on one side and 4 metres on the other side.....70 metres, wide and deep
that one is far too costly to go artificial......not sure what I will do with that one...

 

[Mr Z]

This takes time but its worth it...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

Its a great lecture on the nature of exponential growth.

It is the most serious problem facing man kind IMO, most other issue's are greatly compounded by this single yet politically untouchable issue. The Chinese got it.... there are counter arguments but I can't fully buy into them.

Side issue, but?

Just because we have population growth it does not mean we will have price growth in the short to mid term, there are many other factors in the equation. Eventually yes it is an important fundamental but it can be mitigated by a number of issues, at least for a while.