The Elliott Wave debate

[Nick Radge]

It doesn't meet EW requirements on a number of fronts:

1. wave-c is not equal to wave-a
2. The retracement didn't tag the typical retracement zone
3. Time taken to complete wave-4 is too short compared to wave-2.

This all suggests to me that it will be a more complex corrective pattern and should not move to new highs just yet.

Now I could be wrong and it could skip straight higher, but at the end of the day the pattern doesn't fulfill the trade plan requirements so was not a completed setup.

A wolfe wave is like a stunted a-b-c or more like a descending wedge. In this case wave-c is shorter than wave-a giving the wedge appearance. But even then its not quite a perfect example here.

 

[swm79]

Its a trading setup.
Like all analysis has a beginning middle and end.
But its not about the analysis although most everyone I know thinks it is.
Watch Radge carefully---you'll learn more from what you dont hear him say!
Cryptic I know but after 15 yrs thats where most of my best info has come from--I urge you all to let the man do his thing and watch BOTH success and failure--- then learn from BOTH

Currently we are seeing trades based on wave 4 setups---to possible wave 5
There are many others like hopping on Wave 3s. Elliotts NOT about picking tops and bottoms but more about "Where a trade is at in its life" in my view anyway
If intersted I can add a couple more as they come up to the mix.

Radge is a far better exponent of E/W than myself I just add mine to the mix.
May well see the difference in result from Pro to apprentice.

maybe this would have been enough Tech:

"The man who says it can't be done should not interrupt the person doing it."

 

[dutchie]

It'll be interesting to see who continues to post their calls now they know they'll be tracked.

Gee I hope Nick and Tech pass the test.

 

[Chris45]

It'll be interesting to see who continues to post their calls now they know they'll be tracked.

What would be even more interesting is for some of those (dare I say "skeptics") who use non-EW techniques (triangles, support & resistance, MAs etc) to post their calls, including triggers, stops & targets, like tech/a did with AOE and for a reputable unbiased observer like kennas to track them as well so we can see how the various techniques compare. I wonder if they would be up to the challenge?

(There have been plenty of alerts but no actual details as far as I am aware, but happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.)

 

[doctorj]

But its not about the analysis although most everyone I know thinks it is.

It's a tool to make money, isn't it?

Cryptic I know but after 15 yrs thats where most of my best info has come from--I urge you all to let the man do his thing and watch BOTH success and failure--- then learn from BOTH

I'm not sure, but it sounds like you're glad kennas has volunteered his time. By working out which ones work and which don't we can go into the WHY with more rigorous analysis.

What would be even more interesting is for some of those (dare I say "skeptics") who use non-EW techniques (triangles, support & resistance, MAs etc) to post their calls

This thread isn't about whether TA or FA or whatever works, it's about Elliott Wave. Even if alternatives fail, it doesn't make EW a good strategy by default.

 

[nunthewiser]

What would be even more interesting is for some of those (dare I say "skeptics") who use non-EW techniques (triangles, support & resistance, MAs etc) to post their calls, including triggers, stops & targets, )

mine are posted through out this fine forum (had a few removed also which were in real time, NOT just BHP, but thats my fault for not putting them in appropriate threads ) )...... right or wrong ........ i care not if they are tracked .not looking for a competition just wanted to see IF EW was actually used as a LIVE trading tool by ACTUAL traders instead of the usual bunch that like to ta;lk about it but not actually use it in a real time basis...... seems to be a lot of that here , ..hindsight EW calls

glad Nick taken the time to share some with us , nice to see it posted here as example in real time (entrys/exits).right OR wrong

anyways..... personally dont think any of this will tell any tales until at least a decent number of trades are posted to give a rough average to work on to get the true tale of the tape

happy to post my entrys/exits/analysis here also if thats what rings your bell BUT its not based on EW so im invading yet another thread with off topic stuff

i must add that ALL entrys and exits are posted in the live chat facility here AS they happen daily ..... even intraday stuff . right or wrong

 

[Chris45]

happy to post my entrys/exits/analysis here also if thats what rings your bell BUT its not based on EW so im invading yet another thread with off topic stuff

Nun, I'm afraid I don't have a bell worth ringing but I am interested in learning about other techniques, especially EOD techniques, and maybe others are as well. I've only seen one of your trades (which unfortunately was deleted) and was impressed! I think you said before that you're not interested in being a teacher and that's unfortunate because I think that you've got knowledge and skills worth teaching as well as a humorous style. With 3,057 posts to your credit I'm afraid I don't have a clue where to look to find the trades you've posted so, since you are one of the few prepared to go public, perhaps you could start a new thread and share your analysis with us. I'm sure I would not be the only one interested ... (and I'm NOT taking the p!ss!)

 

[Bobby]

This thread isn't about whether TA or FA or whatever works, it's about Elliott Wave. Even if alternatives fail, it doesn't make EW a good strategy by default.

Well I liked the above doctorj

EW & Gann are both favorites for spoon feeder's , all the ground work has been done

 

[skc]

Hey gents, is this a valid set up from EW perspective?

Possible entry at the parabolic SAR, with stop loss at the pivot low if and when it does form. No trade if low was set too much below $2.6.

Initial target would be ~$4 for wave equality... but if it was a 5-wave advance the target can potentially be ~$4.5.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

It doesn't meet EW requirements on a number of fronts:

1. wave-c is not equal to wave-a
2. The retracement didn't tag the typical retracement zone
3. Time taken to complete wave-4 is too short compared to wave-2.

This all suggests to me that it will be a more complex corrective pattern and should not move to new highs just yet.

Now I could be wrong and it could skip straight higher, but at the end of the day the pattern doesn't fulfill the trade plan requirements so was not a completed setup.

A wolfe wave is like a stunted a-b-c or more like a descending wedge. In this case wave-c is shorter than wave-a giving the wedge appearance. But even then its not quite a perfect example here.

Nick you seem to be a proficient EW trader and from what you wrote above seems fair.

But, I have trouble limiting myself to points 1. and 3. above. I just cannot limit the market action to a law, rule, stipulation or call it whatever, when the market is running its natural course and may just be ready for a rise. You mentioned a falling wedge, which encompasses a two leg down. Considering the risk advantage of this pattern at or near the point it has in this case given good reward for those who got onto the break. Though, I shouldn't flirt with hindsight verbosity.

The question is, where is the advantage of trading a perfect wave which follows textbook laws of EW when the risk advantage of doing such may not be as effective or efficient as trading a wedge or something else - considering market structure and other personal particular checks and balances for instance?

Thanks for the input.
Snake

 

[Bobby]

The question is, where is the advantage of trading a perfect wave which follows textbook laws of EW when the risk advantage of doing such may not be as effective or efficient as trading a wedge or something else - considering market structure and other personal particular checks and balances for instance?

Snake

Hi Snake, I've spent considerable time on EW in the past & can say its a flawed strategy .
Gee if it worked it would soon bugger its self up anyway as the market self adjusts for any play .

As for Nick I recommend his last book , it's an informative read & well worth buying ( just skip the EW stuff , my opinion ) .

 

[chrislp]

The question is, where is the advantage of trading a perfect wave which follows textbook laws of EW when the risk advantage of doing such may not be as effective or efficient as trading a wedge or something else - considering market structure and other personal particular checks and balances for instance?

Not answering for Nick but considering your own response of "market structure" perhaps that answers it? It's discretionary analysis after all not a system.

 

[chrislp]

Hi Snake, I've spent considerable time on EW in the past & can say its a flawed strategy .

Maybe discretionary analysis doesn't suit you?

 

[Bobby]

You must be incompetent at using it then? Perhaps try something else?

Stupid comment , Try giving us some examples of your use of EW
In real time :bunny: ?

 

[chrislp]

Stupid comment

If that was a stupid comment what does that say of your original one?

"Try giving us some examples of your use of EW"

If I had the time I would like to. I can't give this thread priority of time unfortunately.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hi Snake, I've spent considerable time on EW in the past & can say its a flawed strategy .
Gee if it worked it would soon bugger its self up anyway as the market self adjusts for any play .

As for Nick I recommend his last book , it's an informative read & well worth buying ( just skip the EW stuff , my opinion ) .

Bobby,

That complex wave might just be forming.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Not answering for Nick but considering your own response of "market structure" perhaps that answers it? It's discretionary analysis after all not a system.

Perhaps context is a better word. Thanks for the education.

 

[Rogue Trading]

Hi,
Someone has given me a copy of Graham Dyer's Newsletter. Graham seems to be using Elliott Wave. Does anyone get the newsletter and is it any good? The one copy I have is very interesting. I know nothing about Elliott Wave. Is there a Elliott Wave for Dummies book or similar?
Thanks for your help.
Rogue Trading

 

[Timmy]

Hi,
Someone has given me a copy of Graham Dyer's Newsletter. Graham seems to be using Elliott Wave. Does anyone get the newsletter and is it any good? The one copy I have is very interesting. I know nothing about Elliott Wave. Is there a Elliott Wave for Dummies book or similar?
Thanks for your help.
Rogue Trading

I think if you look through this thread a few of the EW guys have posted links to free books and articles on EW.

Here you go:
Post 185 (thanks Chris45)
Post 187 (thanks Boggo)

 

[Timmy]

Since the EW'ers have been kind enough to put their live trading calls up, using EW, I'm taken the time to collate them to see how they go.

Kennas, I think this is a good idea for those interested in EW and genuinely using it for improved trading and as a learning tool ... but for those with business interests tied up with EW it may well be very threatening? I hope doing this doesn't drive them away as even their input can be helpful sometimes?