The China civil war

[wayneL]

How long will the Chinese people put up with the authoritarian nonsense they have been enduring? How long before they say, enough?

Could it be possibly starting?

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/tensions-flare-between-residents-and-big-whites-in-locked-down-china/news-story/285dea21ec5abeb0cb8c004de734c39a

 

[frugal.rock]

Could it be possibly starting?

Officials beating animals to death because their owners are infected.
Parents separated from children.
Food distribution is a mess.
In some cases, rotten and dicarded, not distributed.
Calls from balconies begging for food.

I heard of one instance of 6 dogs pack hunting 1 cat on the streets.
Covid infected people's pets are being destroyed purely because the owner has covid. People are letting their animals go in the street in attempt to save them from possible destruction or starvation.
Other people have reported they have eaten their pet to avoid starvation.

Not sure if they have the will or the energy left in Shanghai...

Zero covid policy, what a freakin joke.
Take down the CCP

Due to censorship, we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.
Even reports from US and Japanese consulates in Shanghai of food shortages.

Wholesale food prices are reasonably unaffected by inflation, however markups are happening down the line, from 100% up to 1000% above normal retail.


It's ugly...

 

[Craton]

Rocky times ahead for sure. As per Peter Zeihan's vlog on the Shanghai lock down, the authorities have deployed an army of drones to record dissenters.

He also surmises that due to the Ukrainian conflict, China is the next biggest loser. He explains how that conflict is directly affecting China as a whole.

In Shanghai, COVID Rattles the Chinese System
by Peter #Zeihan on April 13, 2022

#Shanghai - China's largest city and financial center - has been under a severe #lockdown since April 1st as Beijing seeks to contain a runaway outbreak of the Omicron (and Omicron BA.2) variant.

Beijing's dogmatic promotion of the domestically produced Chinese COVID vaccine (and refusal to import foreign-made, more effective mRNA vaccines) has left the Chinese population poorly protected against the coronavirus as we head into the third year of the pandemic.

Incredibly strict lockdowns are the only tool available to Chinese leadership as they continue to pursue a "COVID Zero" policy, but with the most recent variant infections and deaths continue to rise as an overwhelmed health and security apparatus struggles to keep up.

The people of Shanghai, and Hong Kong, and likely soon Beijing are facing extraordinary pressures as hunger and surveillance and fear and censorship take their toll. And the cult of personality that Chinese President Xi Jinping has worked to build over the past decade is squarely in the crosshairs.

The war in Ukraine isn't doing Xi any favors, either. Beijing is facing a world now where private companies and investors - both critical cogs in China's economic systems - have been flexing their boycott muscles. Too draconian a response against potential protests risks triggering a massive global economic backlash.

And for a country in desperate need of fuel and food imports, Russian supplies face a logistical blockade of limited infrastructure capacity, geographic challenges, and the constant spectre of international sanctions.

 

[IFocus]

How long will the Chinese people put up with the authoritarian nonsense they have been enduring? How long before they say, enough?

Could it be possibly starting?

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/tensions-flare-between-residents-and-big-whites-in-locked-down-china/news-story/285dea21ec5abeb0cb8c004de734c39a

Answer is forever as they always have the only break being at the end of the last dynasty for a short period before Mao, its all completely normal IMHO.

 

[Craton]

Answer is forever as they always have the only break being at the end of the last dynasty for a short period before Mao, its all completely normal IMHO.

I don't know if it's gonna stay normal per se, technology and the flow of information, albeit restricted in those oppressed nation states, will make a difference and inevitably lead to change.

The when is the question. My answer to that is when the general populace are consumed with scant regard for their own preservation and are willing to sacrifice self for the greater good. Then change will steamroll along and no amount of censorship and/or control will stop it.

 

[IFocus]

I don't know if it's gonna stay normal per se, technology and the flow of information, albeit restricted in those oppressed nation states, will make a difference and inevitably lead to change.

The when is the question. My answer to that is when the general populace are consumed with scant regard for their own preservation and are willing to sacrifice self for the greater good. Then change will steamroll along and no amount of censorship and/or control will stop it.

I agree anything is possible but no use framing from a western political / cultural perspective IMHO.

The current Russian peoples acceptance of killing Ukrainians some thing of an example.

 

[Craton]

@IFocus
I was thinking along the lines of uprisings, coups and civil wars.

Most certainly and for sure that leaders in China (and else where) have done all in their power to mitigate, oppress and cajole the populace into passive submission and compliance.

The ability for people to endure shocking hardship is, sadly, endemic.

 

[wayneL]

To the general malaise in China, from Bob Moran:

(and also foreign investors are dumping Chinese stocks in record numbers apparently)

 

[IFocus]

John Mauldin letter is worth a read talks about the lock downs and flow effect world wide

This isn’t the orderly, efficient China the government likes to portray. People forcibly kept in their homes without food or access to medical care, serenaded by propaganda drones, pets being killed, and inhumane camps for those who test positive sounds more like a dystopian nightmare. Many other stories and videos, some from Westerners living in China, confirm that impression, though. The images on Twitter are depressing.


Sidebar: There may be more than just a simple Zero COVID policy in play here. There has always been a serious rivalry between Shanghai and Beijing. If there is a serious anti-Xi faction, it is centered in Shanghai. Serious China watchers I follow think part of the Shanghai lockdown is a clear warning to Shanghai leaders to toe the line.


And just to make matters even more interesting, the Chinese Communist Party will hold its National Congress later this year, which will determine whether Xi Jinping stays in power. You might think there is no serious doubt about it. His re-election is certainly likely. But it’s not guaranteed, and he needs to keep the party elites on his side.

 

[qldfrog]

The next step is a war:
That's the recipe the US used , and the CCP will do too

Beijing orders ‘stress test’ as fears of Russia-style sanctions - PanaTimes

Exclusive: exercises are to prepare China for the possibility of similar embargos from the

panatimes.com

 

[mullokintyre]

The new Hong Kong supreme ruler has bought in the compulsory constant surveilance phone ap that mainland citizens have been forced to use.
From Epoch Times

The Hong Kong government (HKgov) has been proactively seeking ways to reopen cross-borders with China.

Hkgov plans to enforce the CCP’s Health Code tracking into Hongkongers’ pandemic life. Commentators and netizens are nervous about losing personal freedom and privacy under the regime.

HKgov has plans to add the COVID-19 Color Code system to the current LeaveHomeSafe App. Doing so will further restrict citizens’ movements. This app is a HKgov-made mobile vaccine passport for tracing and tracking COVID-19 patients and their public visits.

Lo Chung-mau, Secretary for Health Authority (HA), said the Information, Technology and Industry Bureau (ITIB) and HA had concluded an evaluation of LeaveHomeSafe just half a month after the new government took office on July 1.

Lo claimed that Hong Kong must mirror the CCP’s Dynamic-Zero Policy to ease pandemic cases, as it is a good policy. “Any policy which eliminates high-risk patients’ public visits is a good policy we should learn from.” His comments confirmed citizens’ concern about real-identity-based registration on the app.

Limitation of Movement or Under Surveillance​

Hong Kong has been quietly running a similar system since 2021. Nevertheless, the Hong Kong code had only been applied to those who cross the borders of Guangdong Province, China, or Macau under quarantine exemptions. The color code allowed both cities to watch their Covid-19 cases.

Hong Kong Code is essentially based on the PCR Test Pass, with PCR short for polymerase chain reaction-based nucleic acid test for COVID-19.

Unlike the current Hong Kong Code, which only traces a small group of exempted visitors, HKgov is now discussing tracking everyone in Hong Kong.

Three color indicators will be added to the existing vaccine pass by bracketing media reports, and standards of both PCR and Hong Kong vaccine passes.

Code Red represents COVID-19 confirmed patients, close-contact persons, any coronavirus-positive patients within 14 days upon discharge, persons who are undergoing compulsory COVID-19 test, and anyone who had reported symptoms of the virus within the past 14 days.

Code Yellow symbolizes anyone who has visited or is currently living in the high-risk areas, those who are waiting to be tested. Public places such as restaurants and gyms will not grant entry to anyone with Code Yellow.

As for Code Green, anyone is tested negative—but the green code is only valid for one day.

Lo claimed that the new rule “has nothing to do with wanting to reopen cross borders with China.”

Hongkongers and critics are worried about Hong Kong becoming another CCP surveillance city.

I bet the cits of Hong Kong are so happy that the UK government got those assurances from the CCP that there would be at least 50 years of one country, two systems rule.
Yeah, that worked out well.
Mick