China: As it is

[Dona Ferentes]

Has demographic decline led the world to wonder if it has reached peak China?

According to Paul Keating , who met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Sydney this week, Yang put on a brave face, emphasising that China was still only 55 per cent urbanised and had another 20 per cent to go.

 

[sptrawler]

Has demographic decline led the world to wonder if it has reached peak China?

According to Paul Keating , who met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Sydney this week, Yang put on a brave face, emphasising that China was still only 55 per cent urbanised and had another 20 per cent to go.

Maybe we should send some removalists over, there seems to be plenty of empty apartments over there, must be lacking the removalist skillsets to get the people in them.
Maybe Paul should have shown them some pictures of our homeless and that new Rozelle spaghetti interchange, they have just put in Sydney. Then the Chinese Foreign Minister could see what real 3rd world infrastructure looks like looks like.

 

[mullokintyre]

Don't know how accurate the chart below might be, there is no attribution, so it may be propaganda.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Chinese exports shrinking.
As the rest of the world draws back from the supplier of everything, its gardly surprising.
Imports also fell , so it seems a contraction in the Chinese GDP might be expected.

Chinese balance of Trade is also falling, though its still pretty healthy compared to most other economies.
Cars have been the big moover, while cellphones, fertilisers and furniture were the losers.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Don't know how accurate the chart below might be, there is no attribution, so it may be propaganda.
Mick
View attachment 173139

Perhaps the Chinese investors know a thing or two about their economy.
The Yield on 10 Year Chinese bonds has just hit the lowest yield level ever.
It would suggest that the investors think that interest rate cuts are in the offing, and there is ample liquidity with little appetite for borrowing.
Mick

 

[basilio]

China's huge push on renewable energy energy as well as EV and household solar seems to be turning the corner on GG emissions. Quite detailed analysis of the impacts of varying facto9rs in Chinese carbon emissions.

CHINA ENERGY
28 May 2024 0:01

Analysis: Monthly drop hints that China’s CO2 emissions may have peaked in 2023​

Lauri Myllyvirta​

28.05.2024 | 12:01am

China energy Analysis: Monthly drop hints that China’s CO2 emissions may have peaked in 2023


This guest post is by:
Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute and lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 3% in March 2024, ending a 14-month surge that began when the economy reopened after the nation’s “zero-Covid” controls were lifted in December 2022.

The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, reinforces the view that China’s emissions could have peaked in 2023.

The drivers of the CO2 drop in March 2024 were expanding solar and wind generation, which covered 90% of the growth in electricity demand, as well as declining construction activity.

Oil demand growth also ground to a halt, indicating that the post-Covid rebound may have run its course.
A 2023 peak in China’s CO2 emissions is possible if the buildout of clean energy sources is kept at the record levels seen last year.
However, there are divergent views across the industry and government on the outlook for clean energy growth. How this gap gets resolved is the key determinant of when China’s emissions will peak – if they have not done so already.

Analysis: Monthly drop hints that China’s CO2 emissions may have peaked in 2023 - Carbon Brief

China’s CO2 emissions fell by 3% in March 2024, ending a 14-month surge that began when the economy reopened after the nation’s “zero-Covid”

www.carbonbrief.org

 

[mullokintyre]

Some statistics on china demographics courtesy of Reuters .

Chinas birthrate fell in 2023 by 5/6%.
In 2022, the net poulation fall was 850,000.
This was the first fall in recorded population since Mao's great leap Backwards famine in 1961.
The population then declined by 2.08 million for 2023.
About 21% of China's population are over 60.
Demographers estimate that China will have lost over 100 million people by 2050.
The chart below highlights the rapid decline.

Mick

 

[finicky]

So we have basically accepted the line of a largely benign if-a-bit-authoritarian neighbour.

Totally clueless

 

[sptrawler]

China thinking of lifting its retirement age.

'Never popular': Beijing seeks to raise the country's low retirement age

In response to an aging population and growing pressure on pensions, the Chinese Communist Party plans to raise the statutory retirement age – which currently stands as low as 50 years old for some workers.

www.abc.net.au

 

[rcw1]

A 1 trillion yuan ($US142bn) injection may be on the cards for China’s state banks as the government moves to support the struggling Asian economy, Bloomberg reports, quoting people familiar with the matter.
rcw1

 

[sptrawler]

A 1 trillion yuan ($US142bn) injection may be on the cards for China’s state banks as the government moves to support the struggling Asian economy, Bloomberg reports, quoting people familiar with the matter.
rcw1

They can afford it.

We are buying heaps of their product.

 

[mullokintyre]

China's property market is almost as big a driver as it is in OZ.
It seems despite all the support, the biggest investment sector in China is only going one way.
mick

 

[mullokintyre]

For some strange reason, a US manufacturer has expressed surprise and shock at Chinese decisions to stop exporting drone parts to them, thus halting production.
The fact that the US has been doing just this sort of thing for some years should have had them thinking that perhaps China might retalliate.
Weaponisng the supply chains by various countries will only execerbate the collapse of globalism.
its every man/woman/dog for themselves now.
From Financial times via Zero Hedge

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Still negative data coming out of China.
Zero hedge
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

This is something I did not expect to see.
The yield on Japanese 30 year bonds is now higher than those of China's 30 year bonds.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

China retail sles have fallen in a hole.
The consensus ha been that China needs to become a land of consumers, rather than a land of producers for it to move to the next level.
From Zero hedge

China's retail sales increased just 3% in November from a year ago, falling short of forecasts for 5% growth by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The weakening in retail sales was surprising following strong sales of home appliances and cars a month ago thanks to government subsidies.

While sales for those two categories remained strong in November, a number of discretionary goods recorded a slump.

Cosmetics led the decline with a 26% plunge in sales from a year ago, while those of clothing, jewelry, beverages and tobacco and alcohol also decreased.

Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]