The Abbott Government

Whiskers · 4 November 2013

sptrawler said:
Well Syd, Westpac seem to think there is an increase in consumer confidence.

Amid strong growth in the property market, chief executive Gail Kelly said the bank believed higher confidence would lead to increased borrowing by consumers, especially those in NSW.

"There is no doubt that domestically we are seeing a pick-up in consumer confidence which we expect will translate to a gradual increase in credit growth," Mrs Kelly said.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...-71b-profit-20131104-2wvbp.html#ixzz2jdIt7ETs

So as long as the government doesn't do a 'Labor implossion', there may be an orderly recovery in consumer spending.
Rather than a continuation of the mass panic consumer spending freeze we saw under Labor.

Actually Consumer confidence for Oct was 108.3 down from Sept 110.6. Nov is forecast to be 107.5ish

That epitomises pretty much the big picture problem with Aus and the power of our big four banks... and the RBA thinking more about their best interests than the wider economy.

It's too much about short term gain riding on the back of increased lending to increase property prices. Too much about short term local (economic) consumption to stimulate the economy rather than long term mining (in the first priority) and other value adding or manufacturing sustainability.

Where are the industry development and sustainability measures from our leaders to meet the other artificial barriers countries put up to blunt our manufacturing and agricultural exports.? After all we do rely very heavily on our exports.

sptrawler · 4 November 2013

Whiskers said:
.

It's too much about short term gain riding on the back of increased lending to increase property prices. Too much about short term local (economic) consumption to stimulate the economy rather than long term mining (in the first priority) and other value adding or manufacturing sustainability.

Where are the industry development and sustainability measures from our leaders to meet the other artificial barriers countries put up to blunt our manufacturing and agricultural exports.? After all we do rely very heavily on our exports.

I wouldn't mind a $ for every time I've said that since 1968, I would be a rich person.

Why if W.A is the resource rich state, has our value adding industries been would down ?

BHP were meant to have built a steel smelter at Kwinana in 1980, their blast furnace was shut down in 1980 a smelter was never built.
Since then most of the blast furnaces around Australia have been shut down, the carbon tax would have been the death nell for most of the remainder.
I don't think the coalition will stop the demise of Australian industry, but I think the removal of the carbon tax will slow it down slightly.
Can some of the Labor carbon tax supporters, show me some of the new clean energy technology jobs that were going to spring up and take up the slack from a crippled manufacturing industry.
I think So_Cynical gave the perfect Labor answer on another thread, when he said "I'm alright Jack".
Pretty well sums it up.

drsmith · 4 November 2013

My prediction on interest rates is that the next move will be up.

sptrawler · 4 November 2013

drsmith said:
My prediction on interest rates is that the next move will be up.

As long as there are enough plebs on the debt treadmill.
Then workplace reform and social engineering comes to the fore, it's all a bit predictable.

Whiskers · 4 November 2013

drsmith said:
My prediction on interest rates is that the next move will be up.

Why?... a modest increase in consumer spending leading up to Xmas, a slight increase in house prices and building approvals after a slack period?

It had better not be this one!

sptrawler · 4 November 2013

Whiskers said:
Why?... a modest increase in consumer spending leading up to Xmas, a slight increase in house prices and building approvals after a slack period?

The last government was talking about a need to increase productivity, how do you think that is achieved?

Whiskers · 4 November 2013

sptrawler said:
The last government was talking about a need to increase productivity, how do you think that is achieved?

Seriously... you are not suggesting an interest rate increase will increase productivity... are you!?

sptrawler · 4 November 2013

Whiskers said:
Seriously... you are not suggesting an interest rate increase will increase productivity... are you!?

It's amazing what conditions,work practices, entitlements, people will negotiate away, to keep their house and or lifestyles.

sptrawler · 5 November 2013

Whiskers said:
Actually Consumer confidence for Oct was 108.3 down from Sept 110.6. Nov is forecast to be 107.5ish

That epitomises pretty much the big picture problem with Aus and the power of our big four banks... and the RBA thinking more about their best interests than the wider economy.

Seems like you and Syd are reading the AMWU newsletter, even the AGE doesn't agree with you.lol

http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/spending-surge-lifts-retailers-20131104-2wxgg.html

Whiskers · 5 November 2013

sptrawler said:
Seems like you and Syd are reading the AMWU newsletter, even the AGE doesn't agree with you.lol

http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/spending-surge-lifts-retailers-20131104-2wxgg.html

Actually I don't read any AMWU newsletter and my figures came from trading economics data.

Retail sales and consumer confidence are not the same thing, nor does increased retail sales necessarily translate into increased consumer confidence. If you look at retail sales, they are coming off a flat spot in the middle of the year and nothing to get too excited about atm.

The standout sector was clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing up 1.3%... could be just seasonal change of wardrobe time for a lot of consumers! the best of the rest was household goods and restaurants/takeaway foods with .4%

The bottom chart from the ABS shows volume as well as price are not too exciting yet. Certainly nothing like sufficient to pin an interest rate rise on.

If you want to search the ABS site for the CPI you will see the biggest driver was fuel, electricity and various government charges. All the wrong things to stimulate real economic recovery... and what a dent a different monetary policy to lower the AUD would have made. We might see some inflationary pressure from longer term sustainable indicators.

The modest rise in real estate in certain areas is eaten up with increased holding costs for both investors and consumers. So that's a false alarm too!

SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS

THE ALL GROUPS CPI
rose 1.2% in the September quarter 2013, compared with a rise of 0.4% in the June quarter 2013.
rose 2.2% through the year to the September quarter 2013, compared with a rise of 2.4% through the year to the June quarter 2013.

OVERVIEW OF CPI MOVEMENTS
The most significant price rises this quarter were for automotive fuel (+7.6%), international holiday travel and accommodation (+6.1%), electricity (+4.4%), property rates and charges (+7.9%), water and sewerage (+9.9%) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+3.5%).
The most significant offsetting price fall this quarter was for vegetables (-4.5%).
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6401.0/

IFocus · 5 November 2013

drsmith said:
My prediction on interest rates is that the next move will be up.

Not with the AUD still up RBA need a lower AUD for the industrial complex in Australia to pick up and in a hurry as mining comes off.

Still any thing that looks like a housing breakout may change that

DB008 · 6 November 2013

Article from 'The Age'

PM stumbling around the international stage

Tony Abbott has lurched from one diplomatic disaster to another as he compounds rookie mistakes with our Asian neighbours.

The making of effective foreign policy always looks easier than it is. As a result, new governments tend to underestimate the task. The Howard and Rudd/Gillard governments each made tentative starts on the international stage. The current government's diplomatic initiation has been worse. Even allowing for inexperience, the Abbott government appears to be setting a new standard for diplomatic ineptitude. The Prime Minister in particular has lurched from one mistake to another, with each episode more ham-fisted than the last.

Three cases illustrate the point.

When the Prime Minister left for Indonesia on his first overseas visit, he had a clear set of objectives. He needed agreement on one of three approaches designed to ''stop the boats''. A policy based on turning boats around, buying boats, or buying information about boats had been sold to the Australian public. Now it had to be sold to the country whose sovereignty it threatened to breach. Unsurprisingly, this was a non-starter in Jakarta. After a couple of apologetic speeches, the only thing turned around was Tony Abbott himself.

http://www.theage.com.au/comment/pm-stumbling-around-the-international-stage-20131105-2wz4q.html#ixzz2jqrdBSR6

noco · 6 November 2013

DB008 said:
Article from 'The Age'

PM stumbling around the international stage

http://www.theage.com.au/comment/pm-stumbling-around-the-international-stage-20131105-2wz4q.html#ixzz2jqrdBSR6

My friend I would not put too much credence into what the AGE comes up with as they are very pro Labor and so is the Indonesian Foreign Minister.

One would not expect anything else from them.

AAA · 6 November 2013

Written by a former Rudd staffer. Give it as much credibility as anything written my Mark Latham.

Whiskers · 6 November 2013

noco said:
My friend I would not put too much credence into what the AGE comes up with as they are very pro Labor and so is the Indonesian Foreign Minister.

One would not expect anything else from them.

Forget about the messenger and whoever you perceive them to be biased to... think about the message and what we do know!

Regardless of whether it was Labor, a labor supporter or an Indonesian foreign minister (as it happens, is more aligned with Labor)... the fact is Abbott and Bishop are not striking the right cord with them for harmonious relations or progressing the people smuggler issue. Despite the beat up hype, they really haven't done anything in substance to substantially change or improve on Rudds last minute changes and the PNG solution.

If spying in Indonesia was part of their 'mums the word', secret plan to buy back boats and otherwise disrupt the boat smugglers they may have done irreparable damage to not only Indo relations but general mistrust around the whole region and world... tarred to the same brush as the US

There is undeniably trouble brewing in the coalition with their credibility on foreign relations, the RBA and monetary policy and foreign investment just for starters.

The Libs are showing signs of their previous destructive patterns nationally and especially in Qld with Newman tending to the extreme right at times. The Nationals need to maintain their integrity and hard line on policy issues to distance themselves from the Lib balz-ups and further their credibility and vote come the next election to renegotiate the coalition agreement to stand more National candidates against Libs and take some of the vote that will otherwise go to PUP or others... or even damn Shortens version of Labor, blatantly ignoring he is going to give them another heart attack.

drsmith · 6 November 2013

noco said:
My friend I would not put too much credence into what the AGE comes up with as they are very pro Labor and so is the Indonesian Foreign Minister.

That particular article wants to give all the credit for managing our borders to Kevin Rudd.

That speaks for itself.

DB008 · 6 November 2013

That article is going viral on the net. It's going bananas on facebook too

drsmith · 6 November 2013

DB008 said:
That article is going viral on the net. It's going bananas on facebook too

About the author,

Raoul Heinrichs is a scholar, editor of the Lowy Institute’s Strategic Snapshots and former foreign and security adviser to Kevin Rudd while in opposition.

http://wheelercentre.com/events/presenter/raoul-heinrichs/

Whiskers · 6 November 2013

drsmith said:
That particular article wants to give all the credit for managing our borders to Kevin Rudd.

That speaks for itself.

The problem with Abbot and co is they are going overboard to steal credit for 'good' things they did not do and spiel Labor with all the bad things.

The psychological effect of that is they are inadvertently destroying their own credibility and trust and fostering empathy for Labor once it is revealed they weren't honest up front.

Given Rudd strategist Bruce Hawker will publish his diaries next month, described as "a revealing and fascinating first-hand account of the dramas behind one of the most challenging political campaigns that Australia has ever seen," Abbott could loose more 'face' in the public eye.

Described as "a revealing and fascinating first-hand account of the dramas behind one of the most challenging political campaigns that Australia has ever seen," Mr Hawker will argue that the burden of the unpopular Gillard government was too much to overcome.

Mr Hawker played a key role in Labor's decision to allow members and MPs to elect the parliamentary leader. The book will document how this reform adopted in July came about. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...on-rudd-campaign/story-fn59niix-1226731151162
If third party evidence further discredits Abbotts exaggerated version of condemnation of Rudd and the Labor government, this further alienates him and plays right into the hands of support for Rudd who if not re-running himself, his opinion will be be very influential in a restructured Labor.

drsmith · 6 November 2013

Whiskers,

The conclusion I've reached with what you post on politics is that it's largely crap and hence not worthy of response.

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