The Abbott Government

[sydboy007]

I would have thought that being a keen contributor of economic commentary that you'd care about the accuracy of what you post in that field.

As to whether you do or not is up to you.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Main+Features1Sep 2013?OpenDocument



http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0



Trend 11765.4 - 11646.8 = 118.6

Seasonally Adjusted 11775.8 - 11645.8 = 130

So if I'm wrong, how about you put up direct information to prove your point.

 

[drsmith]

So if I'm wrong, how about you put up direct information to prove your point.

I refer to what I posted before on the information for review,

You might want to review what you've said about employment. To assist, a link to the ABS monthly stats is below.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@...sues&prodno=6202.0&issue=Aug 2015&num=&view=&

Note in particular the large correction to the number of employed persons between Dec 2013 and Jan 2014.

I'll try and paint this as an exercise.

1) Review the statement from December 2013 and in particular the headline seasonally adjusted employed persons and also the graph. The graph extends to September 2013. You'll note that the position of the lines in the graph for September correspond to the numbers provided above in the September 2013 statement.

2) Do the same for January 2014 and note the difference. Note how that difference impacts historically via the graph which in that statement also extends back to September 2013.

From that it should be obvious as to how you conclusion on the change in employed persons between Sept 2013 and July 2015 should be revised.

 

[SirRumpole]

It will be interesting to see if the proposed Melbourne/Brisbane inland freight rail system gets a guernsey among all the road construction projects touted by the Libs.

The Nats want inland rail, but some in the Liberal party think that freight rail is a communist plot to put road haulage companies out of business and replace them by a government enterprise.

Sure a few trucking companies may go out of business, but if rail is a more efficient freight carrier, why should we worry ?

Inland Rail report finds freight train between Brisbane and Melbourne would cost $10b and boost economy

A long-mooted freight train line connecting Brisbane and Melbourne would cost about $10 billion to build but would be good for the Australian economy, according to a new report.

The Inland Rail delivery plan recommends finishing the 1,700 kilometre track over the next decade and providing more money in the federal budget from next year.

The project, which the Nationals have long dreamed would revitalise country towns, would run through Moree, Narromine, Parkes, Wagga Wagga and Albury, ensuring freight trains do not have to travel through the congested Sydney rail network.

The report was written by former deputy prime minister John Anderson and warns if construction does not start soon, eastern Australia will become far more reliant on "heavy" multi-carriage trucks.

It estimates one 3.6km interstate train could carry the equivalent of 110 B-double trucks and claims the line could eventually "result in 15 fewer serious road crashes each year".

While the economic analysis indicates the track could provide a $16 billion boost to NSW, Queensland and Victoria over the next 60 years it cautions "the expected operating revenue over 50 years will not cover the initial capital investment", meaning governments will have build it.

Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss, who has already promised to fast track the project said it "will create up to 16,000 direct jobs during a 10-year construction period and a regular 600 jobs once operating".

Labor's Transport spokesman Anthony Albanese said he "couldn't understand" why the Government had not already started construction or put more money in the budget.

"Seriously, what are they waiting for? They've been in Government for two years. Just get on and build it," he said.

The project's business case has now been referred to Infrastructure Australia.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-10/inland-rail-report-finds-line-would-cost-10b/6766824

 

[sydboy007]

I refer to what I posted before on the information for review,

Paste some figures that back up Abbott's claim, or don't.

I've shown you the information I've based my claim on, as provided by the ABS.

 

[sydboy007]

Coal power generation is 35% efficient where as Solar and wind are only 15%......Take away the government subsidies that are generously given to to the Solar and wind industry and they may well collapse.....We are subsidizing the Chinese in the Solar industry.....Coal is not subsidized by the government......Solar and wind are not base load power and therefore unreliable.

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energysubsidies/

The IEA’s latest estimates indicate that fossil-fuel consumption subsidies worldwide amounted to $548 billion in 2013,

I don't know how the fossil fuel industry is able to compete with piddly subsidies like that.

Those subsidies were over four-times the value of subsidies to renewable energy and more than four times the amount invested globally in improving energy efficiency.

Gosh, only 4 times as much fossil fuel subsidies as for renewable energy. Just terrible the injustice done towards coal and oil companies.

We don't have to go 100% renewable at present, so the argument that the sun don't always shine, or the wind ain't always blowing isn't really relevant.

Grid scale battery tech is slowly being implemented in other countries. It'll eventually find it's way to Australia.

 

[drsmith]

Paste some figures that back up Abbott's claim, or don't.

I've shown you the information I've based my claim on, as provided by the ABS.

Your original claim,

Then Abbott makes a bold claim "Since the Election we have had 335,000 more jobs created in our economy" Sept 6. Hockey went on to perpetuate the lie.

The truth is that by July 2015 there were only a net 165,000 new jobs. ABS figures in September 2013, there were 11,645,800 employed people, and in July 2015, there were 11,810,700 employed people.

Consider the graphic from the December 2013 labour force statement,



http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@...45F237B510BFEA91CA257C7D000C2158?opendocument

From the graph, the September 2013 figure is around 11,630,000 employed people or slightly less than the figure you noted from the original September 2013 statement.

Now, consider the graphic from the January 2014 labour force statement,



http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@...F5AD11B7D72484EACA257C99000CF825?opendocument

Note that employed people has been revised down significantly including for September 2013. From the graph, the revised figure is around 11,470,000 employed people which is a significant downward revision from both the figure you presented and the December figure.

In short, subtracting the original September 2013 labour force number from the latest labour force number isn't necessarily an accurate reflection of the number of jobs created over that period due to later revision of the data.

 

[sydboy007]

In short, subtracting the original September 2013 labour force number from the latest labour force number isn't necessarily an accurate reflection of the number of jobs created over that period due to later revision of the data.

So basically the cut backs at the ABS are making the stats open for major revisions.

By Feb 2014 you're seeing 47.3K jobs added from Jan 2014

Bit of a worry that the labour force stats can be so unreliable.

I'll put that in the back of my head to see how the revisions go in future. Starting to think no one really knows how many jobs have been added.

 

[drsmith]

So basically the cut backs at the ABS are making the stats open for major revisions.

By Feb 2014 you're seeing 47.3K jobs added from Jan 2014

Bit of a worry that the labour force stats can be so unreliable.

I'll put that in the back of my head to see how the revisions go in future. Starting to think no one really knows how many jobs have been added.

When you look at the sampling error information at the bottom of the monthly statements you'll note they're estimates. You'll also note contact details if you wish to seek more information.

A more reliable guide to overall job growth over a longer period such as a 2 years may be the graph trend over that period or a sum of the individual monthly changes.

 

[drsmith]

Whatever TA does regarding his own future, he's now a dead PM walking.

With a story today about a major cabinet reshuffle in the News Limited press, it's likely my view that this has been leaked by a person or persons within his own party and is about trying to facilitate a bad result in the upcoming Canning by-election.

Today in particular has had all the hallmarks of the final days of Julia Gillard. He's tried his best but it's time for TA to walk the political plank and not leave it to the party to suffer the indignities that Labor inflicted on itself during its time in office.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-...e-leadership-spill-before-end-of-year/6772098

In my view, the best that can be hoped for now is that heads overall within are sensible enough not to allow it to become a Labor style blood letting.

 

[drsmith]

Is something afoot ?

Nine Network political editor Laurie Oakes says Mr Turnbull has refused requests from Abbott supporters to publicly rule out a challenge.

Oakes says government whip Andrew Nikolic sent a message to Mr Turnbull, reportedly at the request of Mr Abbott, and there was a request from another senior Abbott backer.

Mr Turnbull reportedly refused to respond publicly, saying that any leadership chatter only fuelled more speculation.

Mr Turnbull's office has been contacted for comment.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...rning-not-gossip/story-fn3dxiwe-1227525264088

 

[galumay]

They are the silent majority...I am one of the few who ignores character assassination you lefties continue to use in your endeavors to silence anyone who speaks out against you...Typical Fabian modus operandi....I will continue to speak my mind and trust there are plenty who will take notice.

I can count the number of your supporters on ASF on one hand.

Coal prices will rise just like other commodities...Your statement is wishful thinking and only time will prove it one way or another.

The silent majority, eh!? How do you know they agree with you if they are silent? Given the polling its likely that many will have changed their support in recent months.

Its laughable how you accuse us of character assassination - something your side of politics with the help of your propoganda minister murdoch, have perfected - then in the next breath call us 'lefties and fabians'.

I think its just the last desparate whinges of a man who is his heart knows this has been one of the worst governments in our history, i think you too know abbott is a dead man walking and thats where a lot of your pent up anger and ad hominem attacks come from.

Its a bit like listening to someone whose cricket team is getting a flogging!

Still the greatest risk for the ALP is that the LNP ditch abbott before the next election, their failure to show any leadership of things like the abuse of refugees and data retention means they need abbott.

Maybe now is a great opportunity for a new party, with the principles and values of the old liberal party, the social concience and protection of workers rights of the old labour and some genuine policies for the environment from the new greens!

 

[banco]

You only have to look at Mike Baird to see an example of a guy whose policies aren't that different to Abbott but who is a better politician on every level. He's like the rebuilt version of Abbott. Smarter, more personable, fitter, better looking and a better salesman.

 

[dutchie]

Julie Bishop owns Tanya Plibersek.

Plibersek needs a man to do her fighting

https://youtu.be/TnjYvsFvRlg

 

[Tisme]

Being a fence sitter has its advantages. I get the Liberal Party news, the Labor Party News, the Nationals News and Getup's news:

UPDATE: We just received word that Channel 9 has banned our new TV ad from airing during the evening news — and they refuse to say why. The ad simply shows, in irreverent fashion, what the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement will mean for Australian families. The Abbott government is trying to keep this deal secret from Australians, and now Channel 9 is joining in.

But we won't give up. We're scrambling right now for ad spots during the news on other networks, before next Saturday's critical Canning by-election (Channel 10 says they'll air it!). Click here to check out the ad and donate to get it on the air in time.


This is the decisive moment for the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP). Upcoming elections in Canada and the US mean if the TPP isn't signed soon, negotiations could push back another year, or fall over altogether.

You see, Trade Minister Andrew Robb is in a real bind. It turns out Australians hate the prospect of letting multinational corporations sue our government in secret corporate courts over laws that protect our children, our health and our environment — a clause being demanded by US interests.

If Mr Robb has no political room to give in to this demand, the whole deal could fall over. Before the last-ditch round of TPP negotiations (predicted to take place within weeks), voters in Canning WA will go to the polls in a critical by-election that's become a referendum on the Abbott agenda.

This is our chance to prove once and for all how unpopular this deal is with Australian voters and leave Mr Robb no room to negotiate our sovereignty away.

We have an attention-grabbing TV ad ready to run in Canning starting this Sunday with a message proven to cut through. Then we'll expand to a national TV buy in the lead up to the next (and likely final) TPP negotiations. But with airtime scarce for the by-election, we need to lock in this advertising now.

A recent GetUp poll of Canning voters showed two things:

More than half of Canning voters don't know much about the TPP.
However, those who know about it are much more likely to vote against the government, which is why we need to get this ad out there fast.

Message testing shows the most effective way of reaching voters is explaining what the TPP means for their family. But it's not always easy to cut through on a complex issue like the TPP. That's why our new ad takes a cheeky approach to draw in voters.

And because the next few weeks are so critical, we won't stop with TV ads — we'll saturate Canning through targeted Facebook and YouTube advertising to ensure we get as many eyes on the ad as possible, right up until polling day. Then we'll do the same for marginal seat voters, who the Government fears most, in the lead up to critical TPP negotiations.

Can you help air the ad during prime-time TV spots and online? https://www.getup.org.au/tpp-family

TPP negotiations are at a precarious stage. The key to blocking the deal is making it impossible for Minister Robb to cave in to demands from the US about Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) clauses. US politicians are demanding them, so US corporations can sue Australian governments over laws that affect their profits, even if they protect us from harm.

Tobacco has become a big sticking point, with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell — who represents Kentucky, one of America's biggest producers of tobacco — lobbying on behalf of Big Tobacco.1 He wants to make sure they have the power to sue our government over plain packaging laws, which help prevent our kids from taking up smoking, but hurt corporate profits. If Australia doesn't agree to these demands, it could be a deal breaker.

Together, we can make sure Trade Minister Robb doesn't cave in to US demands for Big Tobacco and other special corporate interests, and that could help kill off the whole TPP deal.

 

[SirRumpole]

Being a fence sitter has its advantages. I get the Liberal Party news, the Labor Party News, the Nationals News and Getup's news:

Interesting that Labor hasn't made a big deal about the ISDS aspect of the TPP. I hope this isn't another fait accompli like CHAFTA seems to be. The secrecy surrounding the TPP is a good reason why we shouldn't sign it.

No democratic government in its right mind would allow itself to be sued by corporations for passing policy of benefit to its citizens.

If ISDS is in the TPP, then we should be out.

 

[ghotib]

Being a fence sitter has its advantages. I get the Liberal Party news, the Labor Party News, the Nationals News and Getup's news:

As do I. So what do you make of this weekend's National Party news? After a messy nominations process they elected a new president who has an impeccable party pedigree and most recently worked as a lobbyist for Shenhua, among other coal miners.

In general news it's being overshadowed by Liberal leadership boilover, but seems likely to be a boost to good community independents in rural seats. I wonder how many are ready to run now.

 

[Tisme]

As do I. So what do you make of this weekend's National Party news? After a messy nominations process they elected a new president who has an impeccable party pedigree and most recently worked as a lobbyist for Shenhua, among other coal miners.

In general news it's being overshadowed by Liberal leadership boilover, but seems likely to be a boost to good community independents in rural seats. I wonder how many are ready to run now.

LOL Larry ...wonder how Barnaby is feeling.

 

[Tisme]

If Andrew Hastie gets in that will be what..... two protestants, one jew and one muslim versus the catholic team?

 

[SirRumpole]

ROFL.
In townsville last night we still had to use a blanket because it was cold...never known this in mid September in the 44 years I have lived here......normally by this time of the year we have to turn on the air conditioners.

Canberra got down to 2 c this morning.

Today was the first day this Spring that I haven't needed to wear an undershirt or jumper during the day.

I can't remember this happening this early in the season, I'm sure it's a clear case of global warming.

Just thought noco should know this.

 

[wayneL]

The silent majority, eh!? How do you know they agree with you if they are silent? Given the polling its likely that many will have changed their support in recent months.

Its laughable how you accuse us of character assassination - something your side of politics with the help of your propoganda minister murdoch, have perfected - then in the next breath call us 'lefties and fabians'.

I think its just the last desparate whinges of a man who is his heart knows this has been one of the worst governments in our history, i think you too know abbott is a dead man walking and thats where a lot of your pent up anger and ad hominem attacks come from.

Its a bit like listening to someone whose cricket team is getting a flogging!

Still the greatest risk for the ALP is that the LNP ditch abbott before the next election, their failure to show any leadership of things like the abuse of refugees and data retention means they need abbott.

Maybe now is a great opportunity for a new party, with the principles and values of the old liberal party, the social concience and protection of workers rights of the old labour and some genuine policies for the environment from the new greens!

So you want yet another left wing party..... Gettin' crowded over there boyo.