TGA - Thorn Group

[oldblue]

Nothing happening at TGA - or at least on the TGA thread!

Meanwhile, the SP makes quiet gains - up strongly today which suggests a solid result pending.

I hold.

 

[VSntchr]

Nothing happening at TGA - or at least on the TGA thread!

Meanwhile, the SP makes quiet gains - up strongly today which suggests a solid result pending.

I hold.

Result is out 20/5 I think, so it is good to see it break to the upside from its current tight range.
A lot of commentary to follow the result with the good following that TGA has amongst both fundamentalists and techies!

 

[Pioupiou]

Result is out 20/5 I think, so it is good to see it break to the upside from its current tight range.
A lot of commentary to follow the result with the good following that TGA has amongst both fundamentalists and techies!

I agree 100% - what will be published on 21/5/2013 (mooted date of interim report) is already known to a fistful of people, and unless they are saints, to a small degree the word will be on the street already. I for one will go through the report with a fine-tooth comb, and commenting from the FA perspective, because I have a lot riding on TGA's well being.

 

[tinhat]

I agree 100% - what will be published on 21/5/2013 (mooted date of interim report) is already known to a fistful of people, and unless they are saints, to a small degree the word will be on the street already. I for one will go through the report with a fine-tooth comb, and commenting from the FA perspective, because I have a lot riding on TGA's well being.

I look forward to that. It's been moving sideways through congestion for some time but still showing an underlying uptrend on the P&F chart. If it can break out above 2.30 there is blue sky ahead and a break above 2.22 should see it be able to get to 2.30 without too much trouble.

 

[VSntchr]

Result is out with no negative suprises.

There are alot of positives in here - my general thinking from the report is that we will look back in 5-10 years time and think that this period was a good time to accumulate TGA.

It frustrates me that they are increasing the dividend, yet they are continuing with the DRP and expanding financing....their ROC is still well above their cost of capital, I am more than happy for them to re-invest.


Still holding from the lows of $1.40ish and subsequent parcels around $1.60.

 

[ROE]

Steady as she goes I like it ...
No grand plan, no massive capital outlay apart from that crazy nclm bungle, they better steady
The ship for a while

 

[Huskar]

I still don't quite understand the cash flow statement.

Operating cash flow number looks real pretty but more than offset by investing cash flows.

What percentage of rental asset acquisitions and Thorn Equipment Finance settlements is growth capex and what percent is maintenance?

I think you tried to dispel my confusion before McLovin but I am still not clear..

 

[Pioupiou]

I still don't quite understand the cash flow statement.

Operating cash flow number looks real pretty but more than offset by investing cash flows.

What percentage of rental asset acquisitions and Thorn Equipment Finance settlements is growth capex and what percent is maintenance?

I think you tried to dispel my confusion before McLovin but I am still not clear..

I have not looked at the cashflow statement, but I am prepared to venture that you can dismiss the concept of maintenance as a factor in TGA's case. It is not as though TGA's CAPEX involves capital items like cranes and things that can be refurbished. TGA's CAPEX is substantially so-called rental stock. I use the hyphenated word "so-called" because there is an element of fiction skulking there, and that is because TGA supplies most items under operating leases, rather than finance leases, and this lease-type distinction borders on being a sham. If one gets a TV under a three-year finance lease, the cost of the TV is expensed via COGS (cost of goods sold). If one gets a bed under a three-year operating lease with a $1 option to buy the bed at the end of the lease, TGA capitalises the cost of the bed, so it goes into the so-called CAPEX.

In summary, for TGA, when CAPEX rises, it is good news, because it substantially means more so-called rental streams - operating lease payment streams, actually. The cash streams are undervalued in the accounting process, because they are valued via the depreciated value of the asset, not the value of the lease commitment, which includes the profit margin. The profit dribbles in over the lease of the term. In contrast, with finance leases, the profit is taken up-front, and the balance sheet value resides in the lease. Consequently, as TGA shifts more towards operating leases, in the short term profits seem to be lower, but it's all part of that rubbery art called accounting.

Start worrying when TGA's CAPEX falls.

 

[chops_a_must]

Well, it has finally broken out, and I'm finally in.

It's playmate SIV also looks to be resetting up as well.

But this is a strong break out. I'm always a fan of trading breakouts where the fundies like it as well.

 

[oldblue]

You called it well, chops!

It's been a nice steady rise these last few months.

 

[robusta]

You called it well, chops!

It's been a nice steady rise these last few months.

The doo seem to have a habit of increasing dividends and growing revenues. I might be tempted to top up again if the price ever dips enough again.

 

[kermit345]

Consdering all the heated discussion that took place in this thread particularly from an FA vs TA point of view i'd say a lot of people would've made considerable returns if they took part in the discussion in this thread.

Pretty much every angle of TA and FA was covered with no stone un-turned. It's certainly been one of my best performers.

I'd assume Pioupiou's portfolio is looking quite healthy at the moment given his large stake in TGA.

 

[Boggo]

Consdering all the heated discussion that took place in this thread particularly from an FA vs TA point of view i'd say a lot of people would've made considerable returns if they took part in the discussion in this thread.

Pretty much every angle of TA and FA was covered with no stone un-turned. It's certainly been one of my best performers.

As one of those involved in that educational debate I do have to admit that I do hold a few of these.
Fairly average performance so far though for TGA when compared with both BOQ and CWN which were bought two days later.

TGA bought from a purely TA approach of course

 

[tinhat]

As one of those involved in that educational debate I do have to admit that I do hold a few of these.
Fairly average performance so far though for TGA when compared with both BOQ and CWN which were bought two days later.

TGA bought from a purely TA approach of course

I bought a lot of these shares before I knew about the debate here. I agree the debate occurred at a good time to jump on and was very interesting. TGA is not my best performer nor my worst. Been very happy with my investment which I made purely on FA but, for example, Telstra has far out performed TGA over the same period I've been holding. CBA has probably give me better returns too.

That said, in a market that has been very volatile and very sideways moving for most of the past four years I am very grateful for learning what I have about TA (which has been 90% from this forum) which I very much overlay onto my FA when timing entry and exit from stocks these days.

 

[kermit345]

tinhat, I was the same as you, I bought about a week before the discussion started in this thread and then added some more when the price went down a little. The attention to detail and in-depth discussion by the majority in this thread was both educational and rewarding for those that were involved, both from a TA and FA point of view.

The reason TGA sticks out for me is along with CGF last year they have been two of the easiest FA buy decisions i've made since I started investing 4.5 years ago. Since I bought CGF in Aug last year there really has not been any standout FA buys for me like those two which probably has a lot to do with the markets rise hence nothing looks 'cheap'.

So for those that still hold TGA now, where are people looking from here, both from a TA and FA standpoint?

Personally i'm happy to hold due to the steady cashflow/earnings with the opportunity of gradual growth, increasing dividend and therefore steadily increasing shareprice. Also as I said earlier I don't see many options elsewhere to deploy my capital to would rather continue to hold this.

Note: I think $2.30-$2.40 is getting very close to fully priced, $2 or under is a buying opportunity providing its not accompanied by bad news and $2.60+ as time to sell unless positive long-term news is the driver.

 

[craft]

As one of those involved in that educational debate I do have to admit that I do hold a few of these.
Fairly average performance so far though for TGA when compared with both BOQ and CWN which were bought two days later.

TGA bought from a purely TA approach of course

$2.11! Crikey I thought we were talking accumulation sub $1.50.

Far too early for judgment yet IMO we have only had three cash flows:
5.50C FF 8/6/12
4.50C FF 20/12/13
6.0c FF 11/6/13

Everything is on track – the business is performing within expectation. Stand by for my review in a decade or two (or when something turns south with the business.)

An obsession with immediate justification and gratification is going to keep so many from becoming truly wealthy.

 

[Boggo]

... TGA is not my best performer nor my worst. Been very happy with my investment which I made purely on FA but, for example, Telstra has far out performed TGA over the same period I've been holding. CBA has probably give me better returns too.

That said, in a market that has been very volatile and very sideways moving for most of the past four years I am very grateful for learning what I have about TA (which has been 90% from this forum) which I very much overlay onto my FA when timing entry and exit from stocks these days.

Agree tinny. TGA is good when it is moving but it can tie up funds that can be made to work elsewhere when it is having its 'two steps back of three steps up' periods. I picked up the last divvy on it then bailed out until the buy above.

TLS has been a great performer for me, I don't hold the stock but hold instalment warrants instead since I bought TLSIOU in July 2011, now holding TLSIOI in two accounts and have picked up every dividend since 2011 in both my account below and in my SMSF.

Being prepared to move workers ($$$$) around to where they are productive is the key, especially in the current market. I have (unrealised) more profit from MBE in the last week than I would have from TGA in the last year for the same dollar cost. To fund MBE I sold SEA because it wasn't continuing to perform.

The moving cost of between $7 and $33 depending on the broker is the fuel cost to move your "workers" from one job to another, a no brainer imo.

Below is the contents of one of my accounts, CCV and TGA are the two worst performers so far.

 

[robusta]

Don't forget to include the tax you have to pay on all those capital gains.

 

[burglar]

Don't forget to include the tax you have to pay on all those capital gains.

A punch below the belt!?

 

[robusta]

A punch below the belt!?

Not intended to be, I don't consider myself smart enough to trade stocks short term and make money but one of the advantages I have with a longer holding period is tax.