tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Would you agree that the analysis of FEIC has failed?
Technical Analysis - Potential Trading Opportunities
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Sure I agree. Sorry for late response, I was in a vacation...
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It is time to pay some attention to Res-Care Inc (RSCR). Not so long ago it formed a double bottom pattern and fell down. Now we have 2 bullish patterns shown below against 2 bearish patterns Hanging Man and Evening Star (not labelled on the chart). However, the rising correction is not over yet, most probably the price will reach the level of 50% of the previous fall and the zone of the expanding triangle that occurred about 2 months ago. After that further fall may continue.
Daily chart of RSCR
Daily chart of RSCR
Kryzz
shaun
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Client why are all your charts/analysis on U.S. stocks, considering this is an Australian Stock Forum, surely ASF members would benefit "more" if you posted stocks/analysis for ASX equities? Presuming majority of members wouldn't be trading U.S. equities
Monday 31 May 2010
Of the many short-comings I have, one is not being v versatile with a computer, and an inability to figure out how to post charts. In keeping with the theme of this thread, I referenced a 6 month daily XJO chart from NetQuote. I do no know if it is current. That last price appearing is 4458.
Putting the chart into a context, it looks like, [from my analytical perspective], that it may enter a trading range phase for some weeks/months to come. XJO has made a lower swing low and a lower swing high since the April top. The bias is to the downside, but the selling climax-type of bottom formed over a week ago suggests the trading range, as opposed to a continuation of the April sell-off.
The future has not yet happened, so no one knows with any certainty what will develop, but we can look for some areas to see HOW price responds in order to determine if there is a trade potential. Two days after the spike low, there was a wide range retest bar that had no follow-through. In fact, the last three day's rally has erased that negative effort. This tells us that for now, buyers are stronger than sellers.
The 4400 area appears to be offering some support, judging from the high day preceding the spike low, and the highs of the two days following. If there are any corrections that retest this area, and it is not absolute for price could reach a lower level and still be a legitimate retest, we want to see smaller range bars and decreasing volume that says selling pressure has diminished, and a rally farther in the the larger trading range is likely.
The 4480 - 4500 area is the first layer of resistance. This comes from the February low and then the early May low, around 4420 area. The closes are
all above the 4480 area from when the lows occurred.
Of greater interest is the failed mid-May rally at 4640-4650 area. [My chart does not show closer price detail]. There is a wide range bar to the downside, four days before the spike low. The significance of this day is the clear show of supply overwhelming demand, and on any future retest rally, this high, 4610 area, will be defended. The defense of that area can also start ot the low of the wide range day, so do not look for an absolute price; just watch HOW price responds to any given area.
The point to this narrative is to look for an area for a potential trading opportunity. The area of resistance starts just under 4500 and goes to the
4650 area, with the 4610 area important to watch.
At 4458, price has already ralllied above a 50% retracement of the mid-May high to low, so that is a relative show of strength in this current rally. The half-way point of the April high-May low is around 4,595, and that is right in the vicinity of the first layer of resistance observed above. Two separate forms of resistance that meld into the same area should be watched more closely,
All we are doing is making some factual observations and putting them into a context in order to arrive at what may offer some potential trading opportunities. A few places to go short have been identifed. If the rally into the first resistance area is weak, that is an opportunity, and we know exacly why. There is no guesswork.
What would constitute a weak rally? The rally bars get smaller in range, and the volume diminishes, demonstrating a lack of demand. If the bar ranges are not small and volume does not diminish, then the 4480 - 4500 area may only be a temporary stop for price to go higher to the next resistance level.
It is impossible to be specific, for we have no idea how future developing market activity will unfold, but we know by observing HOW it unfolds at the identifed areas, it will provide important clues.
Now, XJO is an average. Some may trade only individual stocks. If we see that price weakens at an area of resistance, and a turning point develops, then look for the weakest performing stocks to sell, for if the market does decline, the weakest stocks will lose the most "value."
This is just one way to search for potential trading opportunites, and we get to utilize the best and most reliable source of price information, that generated by the market itself.
There are some fine points that help identify when a market is turning, and that would come from watching the lower time frame, intra day developing market activity to gain an edge in deciding when to pull the trigger.
Sounds like a plan, and one without any "technical gimmicks."
Of the many short-comings I have, one is not being v versatile with a computer, and an inability to figure out how to post charts. In keeping with the theme of this thread, I referenced a 6 month daily XJO chart from NetQuote. I do no know if it is current. That last price appearing is 4458.
Putting the chart into a context, it looks like, [from my analytical perspective], that it may enter a trading range phase for some weeks/months to come. XJO has made a lower swing low and a lower swing high since the April top. The bias is to the downside, but the selling climax-type of bottom formed over a week ago suggests the trading range, as opposed to a continuation of the April sell-off.
The future has not yet happened, so no one knows with any certainty what will develop, but we can look for some areas to see HOW price responds in order to determine if there is a trade potential. Two days after the spike low, there was a wide range retest bar that had no follow-through. In fact, the last three day's rally has erased that negative effort. This tells us that for now, buyers are stronger than sellers.
The 4400 area appears to be offering some support, judging from the high day preceding the spike low, and the highs of the two days following. If there are any corrections that retest this area, and it is not absolute for price could reach a lower level and still be a legitimate retest, we want to see smaller range bars and decreasing volume that says selling pressure has diminished, and a rally farther in the the larger trading range is likely.
The 4480 - 4500 area is the first layer of resistance. This comes from the February low and then the early May low, around 4420 area. The closes are
all above the 4480 area from when the lows occurred.
Of greater interest is the failed mid-May rally at 4640-4650 area. [My chart does not show closer price detail]. There is a wide range bar to the downside, four days before the spike low. The significance of this day is the clear show of supply overwhelming demand, and on any future retest rally, this high, 4610 area, will be defended. The defense of that area can also start ot the low of the wide range day, so do not look for an absolute price; just watch HOW price responds to any given area.
The point to this narrative is to look for an area for a potential trading opportunity. The area of resistance starts just under 4500 and goes to the
4650 area, with the 4610 area important to watch.
At 4458, price has already ralllied above a 50% retracement of the mid-May high to low, so that is a relative show of strength in this current rally. The half-way point of the April high-May low is around 4,595, and that is right in the vicinity of the first layer of resistance observed above. Two separate forms of resistance that meld into the same area should be watched more closely,
All we are doing is making some factual observations and putting them into a context in order to arrive at what may offer some potential trading opportunities. A few places to go short have been identifed. If the rally into the first resistance area is weak, that is an opportunity, and we know exacly why. There is no guesswork.
What would constitute a weak rally? The rally bars get smaller in range, and the volume diminishes, demonstrating a lack of demand. If the bar ranges are not small and volume does not diminish, then the 4480 - 4500 area may only be a temporary stop for price to go higher to the next resistance level.
It is impossible to be specific, for we have no idea how future developing market activity will unfold, but we know by observing HOW it unfolds at the identifed areas, it will provide important clues.
Now, XJO is an average. Some may trade only individual stocks. If we see that price weakens at an area of resistance, and a turning point develops, then look for the weakest performing stocks to sell, for if the market does decline, the weakest stocks will lose the most "value."
This is just one way to search for potential trading opportunites, and we get to utilize the best and most reliable source of price information, that generated by the market itself.
There are some fine points that help identify when a market is turning, and that would come from watching the lower time frame, intra day developing market activity to gain an edge in deciding when to pull the trigger.
Sounds like a plan, and one without any "technical gimmicks."
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I scan all the stocks. But there are only a couple of them each time that I think are worth of attention. But most of the stocks come from the US, that is why most of the picks here are of the US origin...
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Res-Care Inc (RSCR) from what you have posted is in the middle of no-whereland as far as a trading opportunity is concerned. For trading you need some type of justifiable reason to buy or sell something that has a higher probability than a cr@p shoot.
From your posting this one is not near support, nor resistance, nor some type of breakout. It is in the middle of a pattern that could go either way from what I see.
How you can say,
...is beyond me if this is the best you can come up with as an opportunity for trading
The big picture on this stock is what you have missed and is the most relevant, it is in clear down trend on a weekly basis over the last 3 years, and recently hit its head on the downtrend line as shown below...
brty
From your posting this one is not near support, nor resistance, nor some type of breakout. It is in the middle of a pattern that could go either way from what I see.
How you can say,
...is beyond me if this is the best you can come up with as an opportunity for trading
The big picture on this stock is what you have missed and is the most relevant, it is in clear down trend on a weekly basis over the last 3 years, and recently hit its head on the downtrend line as shown below...
brty
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By the way, brty, if you find any good stock to look at, let us know here. It's better when 2 men are finding something interesting than 1...
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Don't miss to trade Hershey Co (HSY). The nearest solid resistance is $52. However, despite the price has broken the upper line, wait for additional confirmation (1 or 2 bars) as there are usually 5 waves in triangles patterns.
Daily chart of HSY
Daily chart of HSY
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Bancorp Rhode Island Inc (BARI) performed a gap and is falling right now to the weekly trendline. See the daily chart below.
Daily chart of BARI
Daily chart of BARI
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Don't miss to trade Hershey Co (HSY). The nearest solid resistance is $52. However, despite the price has broken the upper line, wait for additional confirmation (1 or 2 bars) as there are usually 5 waves in triangles patterns.
Daily chart of HSY
Nice ---played out well.
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Wow, I am surprised to hear that from you
:
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Don't miss Brown & Brown Inc (BRO) today! The channel was broken and there are several other additional bullish signals. There is a possibility that the price will return to the upper channel line before further rally. See the chart below.
Daily chart of BRO
Daily chart of BRO
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Don't miss Brown & Brown Inc (BRO) today! The channel was broken and there are several other additional bullish signals. There is a possibility that the price will return to the upper channel line before further rally. See the chart below.
Daily chart of BRO
Alternately, you can draw it to be rangebound, and hitting top of range, with target at gap fill on the downside.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Wow, I am surprised to hear that from you
Credit where its due.
Winnig trade or losing trade how its played by the trader will determine profitability (Expectancy)
If traded correctly you could have a less than 50% hit rate and still be profitable.
Over time you would be able to look at this thread and your selections and work out Expectancy IF
You had an exit and position sizing strategy.
Unfortunately you only present a small part of a trade.
If you care to expand this exercise may eventually have some meaning for all involved---even you.
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Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) has sold sharply after breaking a major support line on the daily chart. That break down line can be seen on the chart below. As the selling continues, Research In Motion is moving into a major support line at $47.75. This can also be seen on the chart below. This level may may pose a great risk reward setup for a long swing trade bounce.
ugggh forgot i cant post charts yet lol sorry
ugggh forgot i cant post charts yet lol sorry
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