Technical Analysis - Potential Trading Opportunities

Client · 9 April 2010

tech/a said:
I'm happy to place a couple of trades here but my aim in THIS market is not to set myself for large chunks but rather 2-10R on very short term trades.
This market right now doesnt lend it self to longer term in my view. I have losses and wins---net Profit is the aim--works for me.

So you're a scalper and don't trade long deals right now. Am I correct?

Client I dont have any problem with your analysis but you dont show how you would trade them.
Sure direction options but how you actually extract a $$ is not discussed.
IE
What you do when your right and what you do when your wrong.

But you didn't tell me your method as well. Mine is very simple but I doubt something will change if I reveal it because, as I said before, every trader has his own prefered methods.
I think you're expecting a detailed how-to guide from A to Z when a person doesn't need to think anything but just to follow my direct advices when to buy and when to sell, thus making millions. Right?

But maybe I need to pay for that part of your "training"?

That would be nice I need some money right now...

I buy 'good support' that has been approached in the correct manner. What I buy generally either goes straight up or sideways. Sometimes it goes sideways for a few days then up. If it goes sideways for too long, then I'm out. I thought I already explained this.
No-one can tell where the price will be tomorrow, just anticipate due to research that tells of a likely outcome and positioning for that outcome, plus an uncle point or a plan.

So you use a certain type of technical analysis. I do the same by drawing those "good support" levels with "lovely colourful lines". What's so bad in that? And I use time factor too. When a price doesn't go where I want it to go, I quit a trade...

brty · 9 April 2010

Client,

I do the same by drawing those "good support" levels with "lovely colourful lines". What's so bad in that?

Please do not confuse the lines you have drawn with what I call 'good support'.

You have 'support' all over the place, there is not consistency in approach. Sometimes your support lines are sloping, sometimes recent bottoms, sometimes horizontal lines, sometimes from old tops. I would refer to this type of support a scattergun approach, nothing to do with finding the type of support that tends to work better than other types.

You also missed....

that has been approached in the correct manner

...which is just as important as the support itself, not shown by any colourful lines on the graphs.

Client....

When a price doesn't go where I want it to go, I quit a trade

... yet you have not indicated such on any of the sideways trades.

brty

Trembling Hand · 9 April 2010

Client said:
When a price doesn't go where I want it to go, I quit a trade...

I haven't seen anything in your posts about taking a trade and how you would manage them.

LKR · 9 April 2010

brty said:
Client,

Please do not confuse the lines you have drawn with what I call 'good support'.

Its a very interesting behaviour, watching people give importance to a support line that they have drawn. The market gives significance, not your ruler. Dont think of support as a horozontial line think of it as an area where demand over comes supply, that is where the market is truely supported.

To anticiapte that area is where volume price and time become important, because it will reveal strength or weakness. Then once you identifiy strength or weakness you may position in anticipation, and your probability of success starts to improve. Personally i love the R:R that support frameworks give. As long as you can identify and anticipate corretly, otherwise your porbability of success suffers greatly.

Client · 10 April 2010

Please do not confuse the lines you have drawn with what I call 'good support'.

You have 'support' all over the place, there is not consistency in approach. Sometimes your support lines are sloping, sometimes recent bottoms, sometimes horizontal lines, sometimes from old tops. I would refer to this type of support a scattergun approach, nothing to do with finding the type of support that tends to work better than other types.

That is because the market is not consistent and it can not conform to your "good support" levels. This is all comparetive. Sometimes some levels work, sometimes they don't, sometimes price turns back without reaching any support or resistance. All those lines I draw are possible supports and resistances which you just have to take to attention. I never say they will work with 100% guarantee. And if someone say you that, he is a scammer.

... yet you have not indicated such on any of the sideways trades.
I haven't seen anything in your posts about taking a trade and how you would manage them.

As I said before, I try to give you some forecasts about price movement based on technical analysis methods. So, it is just an advice, a direction pointer. When, where and how to enter and quit a trade is not a subject of this thread. At least for now...

brty · 10 April 2010

Client,

That is because the market is not consistent and it can not conform to your "good support" levels.

Ahhhhh!!!! I conform to what the market does, it is never the other way around!!

You portray yourself as some type of professional, with a professional looking website, like some-one who knows what they are doing.

Yet....

Sometimes some levels work, sometimes they don't, sometimes price turns back without reaching any support or resistance. All those lines I draw are possible supports and resistances which you just have to take to attention.

...clearly shows that you have no idea about what real trading with success consists of. Sometimes, does not cut it. Known percentage probabilities and placing bets accordingly is trading.

You do not offer "trading opportunities", you offer a 50/50 bet minus commission. Nothing better than any random selection of a stock.

I try to give you some forecasts about price movement based on technical analysis methods. So, it is just an advice, a direction pointer.

Your own words from the same post dispute this.

brty

Client · 10 April 2010

Known percentage probabilities and placing bets accordingly is trading.

Exactly. We are here to estimate the probability. But still it remains just a probability. And actually I try to show this probability and prove it by some methods. Just exactly like you do but maybe using another approach.
Be my guest, post a decent example here of your way to trade.

Client · 11 April 2010

Fidelity National Financial (FNF) reached three support levels at once: MA (34), uptrend line and the previous top at $14.40. See the chart below.

Daily chart of FNF

Beside that, as you may see, there is a reversal candlestick pattern - High Wave, the previous bar with long lower shadow. This means that sellers couldn't push the price lower, below the support levels mentioned before. After that we had a confirmation, a weak one though.
The forecast is presented on the chart above. Be aware that if the price breaks the level of $14.40 and goes lower the trendline, we should close long positions.

Arguments for upside movement:

* the price is above MA (34);
* the price couldn't break the upward trendline and break the support level of the previous top at $14.40;
* recent downside movement has features of a correction that means that the rally will continue soon;

Arguments for downside movement:

* confirmation (the last bar) of the High Wave pattern is rather weak, the price couldn't go higher than the middle of the long red bar;
* 3 Inside Down pattern (not indicated on the chart) few days ago.

P.S. Hey, brty, what do you say about this support? Is it solid?

brty · 11 April 2010

P.S. Hey, brty, what do you say about this support? Is it solid?

Not even close. This is another crap-shoot, not a high probability trade.

You use the 34 MA for all stocks, I find that each stock has its own rhythm/cycle.
Uptrend lines are broken all the time, I have never found consistency using them.
Volume??

What makes you think that old minor highs in an intermediate uptrend offer support??

brty

tech/a · 11 April 2010

Client said:
So you're a scalper and don't trade long deals right now. Am I correct?

Days ---- very rarely weeks.
Can be out in hrs.

But you didn't tell me your method as well. Mine is very simple but I doubt something will change if I reveal it because, as I said before, every trader has his own prefered methods.

After 8000+ posts my methods are shown all over the place,quite a bit is currentlt being discussed on the Volume thread.

I think you're expecting a detailed how-to guide from A to Z when a person doesn't need to think anything but just to follow my direct advices when to buy and when to sell, thus making millions. Right?

No not at all I dont see anything other than analysis---and pretty rudimentary stuff at that.

That would be nice I need some money right now...

I have the feeling this effort is one of softsell.

LKR said:
Its a very interesting behaviour, watching people give importance to a support line that they have drawn. The market gives significance, not your ruler. Dont think of support as a horozontial line think of it as an area where demand over comes supply, that is where the market is truely supported.

Now here is some smarts.My chart on ICN (In the volume thread) shows exactly this.
I see Zones rather than lines.
Have a look at the chart below than have a look at the latest chart from friday.ICN in the ASX

To anticiapte that area is where volume price and time become important, because it will reveal strength or weakness. Then once you identifiy strength or weakness you may position in anticipation, and your probability of success starts to improve. Personally i love the R:R that support frameworks give.

Is that you Frank?

As long as you can identify and anticipate corretly, otherwise your porbability of success suffers greatly.

Opps now you've lost me back to being correct!!

Client · 11 April 2010

brty said:
You use the 34 MA for all stocks, I find that each stock has its own rhythm/cycle.

It's true. But I think this time 34 fits the best, like in many other cases.

Volume??

And I noticed that volumes often give false signals...

What makes you think that old minor highs in an intermediate uptrend offer support?? Uptrend lines are broken all the time, I have never found consistency using them.

I thought that was obvious. What makes you think that any other indicator or factor offers any support or signal? You speak in secrets...

Now here is some smarts.My chart on ICN (In the volume thread) shows exactly this.
I see Zones rather than lines.
Have a look at the chart below than have a look at the latest chart from friday.ICN in the ASX

ok, let it be zones. So why do you think that those zones are much better then my lines or some other stuff? The price can break those zones and then unexpectedly turn back.. As well as in my cases. And?..

Client · 12 April 2010

There is a promising symmetrical triangle on the daily chart of Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated (RBA). See for yourself.

Daily chart of RBA

The price came close to MA (34) which gives us another bullish signal in this case. Also you should take into consideration the trading volumes which were very small during last several days. This is a common situation of this corrective pattern when the price becomes stable and then rapidly leaves the boundaries of the triangle. Most probably, RBA will perform an upside rally soon.

tech/a · 12 April 2010

No point in having 2 volume threads going so Ill answer this

ok, let it be zones. So why do you think that those zones are much better then my lines or some other stuff? The price can break those zones and then unexpectedly turn back.. As well as in my cases. And?..

Over here.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19034&page=8

Client · 16 April 2010

The upside rally of Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) was stopped by a correction which turned out to be a Falling Wedge pattern. The downward movement has features of a temporary correction and after it is over there will be a great opportunity to buy a couple of stocks.

Daily chart of LMT

Additional signal that bulls may take control is MA (34) which was not broken by the price. The long lower shadow on the last bar appeared. Besides that there is a 38,2% Fibonacci level that creates a support right now.
However, the price is still within the Falling Wedge’s limiting lines. After it breaks the resistance, we should use the opportunity to buy it.

tech/a · 16 April 2010

Client

This is a nice Low risk setup based upon the Wedge pattern

Your other 2 confirming indicators I find interesting in your use.
The 34 day M/A you state provides support as does 38.2 fib.
Can you explain the technical reason/explanation that supports your argument that they "provide support". I suspect this is pure rhetoric rather than quantifiable evidence.

The long shadow however has some relevance.
Although a look at volume associated with the last 5 bars would be advantageous.

brty · 16 April 2010

Tech,

Clients chart was posted after the market had closed but misses last night. The price is already at $83.22 close with an intra day high of $83.57. A hindsight trading opportunity with the first day validating the "potential".

brty

Trembling Hand · 16 April 2010

brty said:
Clients chart was posted after the market had closed but misses last night. The price is already at $83.22 close with an intra day high of $83.57. A hindsight trading opportunity with the first day validating the "potential".

Maybe Client could tell use how he would manage the trade from now. Hopefully he can use a chart thats not running 1 day behind. lol.:bonk:

tech/a · 17 April 2010

brty said:
Tech,

Clients chart was posted after the market had closed but misses last night. The price is already at $83.22 close with an intra day high of $83.57. A hindsight trading opportunity with the first day validating the "potential".

brty

Well that can make you look like the best analyst in the world.
Where do I sign.

Client · 20 April 2010

tech/a said:
Client

This is a nice Low risk setup based upon the Wedge pattern

Your other 2 confirming indicators I find interesting in your use.
The 34 day M/A you state provides support as does 38.2 fib.
Can you explain the technical reason/explanation that supports your argument that they "provide support".

This part is written in many technical analysis guides and theories. You can Google them.

The long shadow however has some relevance.

I suspect this is pure rhetoric rather than quantifiable evidence.

Maybe Client could tell use how he would manage the trade from now.

Nothing changes.

Hopefully he can use a chart thats not running 1 day behind. lol.

I can't, unfortunately...

Where do I sign.

hey, I thought you wanted to pay me before

brty · 20 April 2010

Client,

Originally quoted from Tech,

Hopefully he can use a chart thats not running 1 day behind. lol.

Client reply.....

I can't, unfortunately...

Perhaps you could use one of the many charts available on the internet to get something that's not behind. As someone who portrays themselves as 'professional', being one day behind with your charts is unforgivable in this day and age. It means your 'set-ups' are not only totally useless, but worse than totally useless....

This part is written in many technical analysis guides and theories

Which usually mean diddly squat....

I suspect this is pure rhetoric rather than quantifiable evidence

....Which is where this thread is at, lovely lines and technical analysis, but nothing quantifiable.

brty

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