Technical Analysis - Potential Trading Opportunities

[Client]

In this thread I want to share my technical analysis of stocks price charts as well as indexes, currencies, metals. I hope you will find something useful here for your profitable trading.
Few days ago I found an interesting stock which seems to be excellent for trading right now.
See the weekly chart below. Click the images to have a better resolution.

Few months ago the price reached the top at $44 and now found support at $40. The last 2 week's rollback seems to have only few chances to brake through resistance level of this steep channel. This is confirmed by small trading volume that declined during the upside rally.
Now lets look at the daily chart.

As you can see, there is a bearish engulfing pattern that happened near the upper trendline. This is a strong bearish argument together with the wave count. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the fourth wave has just finished developing (possible zigzag) and now the last one is going to occur. Presumably, the price will fall to the level of $40.

 

[Client]

Re: Technical Analysis - The Best Securities To Trade At the Moment

It looks like bears are starting to drag the Dow Jones index (DJI) down. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that after reaching the resistance level the price went down below a significant trendline.Last few weeks there was a rollback which, presumably, will get to the trendline that priviously used to be a support for the global upside movement.

The daily chart below shows the perspectives of the index. The last bar is a long-legged doji (or a highwave) according to the candlestick technique. This means that the market "lost its orientation" and reversal movement is possible. Besides the price reached a 61.8% Fibbonacci level which is an important point. The only thing that suggests the upside way for us is that the price went above Moving Avarage (34). In this case we should look for another resistance level which is 10507.

 

[Client]

Another stock to consider - CRAY (Cray Inc.)
The bottom was reached about a month ago and then 2 bullish candlestick patterns occurred - 3 inside up and Highwave. It looks like there is going to be at least a correction but a new upside trend is also highly possible. See the weekly chart below.

$6 point is the first candidate for resistance as it is the middle of the long bearish candle and at the same time it is the bottom of the previous smaller correction.
On the daily chart of CRAY there are 2 resistance levels to consider.

The upper channel line creates a very strong resistance together with the level of about $5.70. Despite that the price have all the chances to break above that level. This assumption is based on the Elliott Wave Principle that we applied here. If the count is correct, we are witnessing the beginning of a new upside trend. If not, then in any case the price should reach the top of the channel. From that point caution is advised to avoid losses from downward rollback.

 

[Client]

Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sure (ASR ticker) definitely has a trading potential. I think it's not the time to trade it right now but keep watching it. Let me explain why:
Not so long ago the price fell below the uptrend line but retraced. Nevertheless, recent upside movement looks like a correction before further decline. See the weekly charts below.

Three long bearish candles formed the Identical 3 Crows model which is a sign of a bearish market and in most cases price falling continues after some period of fluctuation. Trading volume was comparatively law during last few weeks meaning that recent growing is not supported by orders to buy.
Lets analyse the daily bars.

This time we can clearly see an impulse wave that consists of 5 smaller waves. And as you may know, the first impulse can't be the last one. I mean that further bigger downward movement will continue soon after this correction is over.
Tower Bottom and Hammer models as well as the gap (window) form support for possible price fall. It is still unclear when this upside rollback will end but ASR may go to $53 point (Fibo 61.8%) or even reach the nearest resistance level.

 

[tech/a]

Great if it wasnt such blatent advertising.
Suprised its lasted this long unless of course your a financial sponsor of the site.

 

[Client]

Great if...

If it's great, just enjoy it without any IFs

 

[tech/a]

If it's great, just enjoy it without any IFs

Not that great.

Analysis of ANY kind simply anticipates a move.
Its NOT the analysis (Any type of analysis) that makes money.
When people find this out the Need to be right through analysis dissolves.

What gets up my nose is deceptive posting with a hidden agenda which clearly you have.

 

[nulla nulla]

Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sure (ASR ticker) definitely has a trading potential. I think it's not the time to trade it right now but keep watching it. Let me explain why:
Not so long ago the price fell below the uptrend line but retraced. Nevertheless, recent upside movement looks like a correction before further decline. See the weekly charts below.

Three long bearish candles formed the Identical 3 Crows model which is a sign of a bearish market and in most cases price falling continues after some period of fluctuation. Trading volume was comparatively law during last few weeks meaning that recent growing is not supported by orders to buy.
Lets analyse the daily bars.

This time we can clearly see an impulse wave that consists of 5 smaller waves. And as you may know, the first impulse can't be the last one. I mean that further bigger downward movement will continue soon after this correction is over.
Tower Bottom and Hammer models as well as the gap (window) form support for possible price fall. It is still unclear when this upside rollback will end but ASR may go to $53 point (Fibo 61.8%) or even reach the nearest resistance level.

Interesting how people see different things in a chart. In your third chart I see resistance at 54, 56 & 57. The first two peaks of 54 & 56 were followed by sell offs bouncing off 51 & 52 respectively which became support levels. However the sell off after the peak at 57 plunged through these support levels for a brief rally off 48 only to fall back to 47 where it appears to have formed a reverse head and shoulders to rally back to 50. I see the bounce off 47 as a new support level.
From the rally to 50 it has crawled sideways and slightly upwards. It appears to be moving within a downward channel. It needs to break through 53 or is at risk of falling back to test the support level at 47. If it falls through the support level of 47 it could test 44 which is where I see the bottom of the channel.

 

[tech/a]

Interesting how people see different things in a chart. In your third chart I see resistance at 54, 56 & 57. The first two peaks of 54 & 56 were followed by sell offs bouncing off 51 & 52 respectively which became support levels. However the sell off after the peak at 57 plunged through these support levels for a brief rally off 48 only to fall back to 47 where it appears to have formed a reverse head and shoulders to rally back to 50. I see the bounce off 47 as a new support level.
From the rally to 50 it has crawled sideways and slightly upwards. It appears to be moving within a downward channel. It needs to break through 53 or is at risk of falling back to test the support level at 47. If it falls through the support level of 47 it could test 44 which is where I see the bottom of the channel.

Actually we all see the same thing.

An anticipation of something to happen or not to happen.
It makes no difference what you use to analyse a companies chart or its balance sheet.

There will always be claims of Holy Grails.

I have my own.

"In any attempt to increase wealth you need only do one thing.
Income must exceed expenditure".

Now whether that be in Business/Property or Trading there are millions of ways of honoring that statement and millions of ways of failing it.

Analysis ALONE will not guarantee Income over expenditure--analysis fails.
Even the soundest of Money Management Principals can also fail---No amount of sound MM will save a flawed Business/Trading model.

The holy grail is the ability to skew Business/Property and or Trading to a positive expectancy and maintain it.

The rare few in all fields are/become extremely good at it and the majority are miserable.

So ask yourself this every time you have an expectation.
"Will what I do satisfy the "Grail" if so How?

Stick it on your Desk!

 

[Client]

Not that great.
Analysis of ANY kind simply anticipates a move.

Exactly. I don't try to play God Allmighty. I just to anticipate according to what I see on the chart.

What gets up my nose is deceptive posting with a hidden agenda which clearly you have.

I don't spam and simply write stock chart analysis which is my point of view like any other post on this forum. Nobody asks you to pay for it or follow any links. If you don't like it, just ignore this thread.

rally off 48 only to fall back to 47 where it appears to have formed a reverse head and shoulders to rally back to 50

I think there were no reversed head and shoulders because of the lack of the second shoulder. It is not formed yet. If the price falls down from that point to nearly previous bottom then we can say about reversed head and shoulders...
Or maybe I just didn't understand you correctly (?)

 

[Lachlan6]

Actually we all see the same thing.

An anticipation of something to happen or not to happen.
It makes no difference what you use to analyse a companies chart or its balance sheet.

There will always be claims of Holy Grails.

I have my own.

"In any attempt to increase wealth you need only do one thing.
Income must exceed expenditure".

Now whether that be in Business/Property or Trading there are millions of ways of honoring that statement and millions of ways of failing it.

Analysis ALONE will not guarantee Income over expenditure--analysis fails.
Even the soundest of Money Management Principals can also fail---No amount of sound MM will save a flawed Business/Trading model.

The holy grail is the ability to skew Business/Property and or Trading to a positive expectancy and maintain it.

The rare few in all fields are/become extremely good at it and the majority are miserable.

So ask yourself this every time you have an expectation.
"Will what I do satisfy the "Grail" if so How?

Stick it on your Desk!

Absolutely spot on Tech/a. You certainly do make sense, refreshing to hear. The analysis however is good to look at but just as Tech/a says one can put too much emphasis on analysis at the risk of foregoing the absolute fundamental point- Money Management.

 

[Client]

As shown on the weekly chart, after falling to the support line in February Expedia Inc (EXPE) went north. 2 bullish patterns preceded this upside movement: High Wave and Tower Bottom.

Additionally, Rising 3 methods pattern was formed on the daily chart. This is a continuation pattern which tells us now that the price may go up further. But the question is "How high?". Most probably, this whole upside rally is a correction of the previous steep downside movement and it looks like a zigzag. As you can see on the daily chart, the first wave of that zigzag started about 2 weeks ago from $20.2 and ended at $23. The third and the last wave started at $22. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, these waves are equal in most cases that is why we should wait the price at the point $24.8.
Apart from that, this level is a 61.8% Fibo and a rather significant resistance level overall.

Arguments for upside movement:
- the price couldn’t break the support line and rolled back on the weekly chart;
- High Wave and Tower Bottom patterns on the weekly chart;
- the price is beyond MA (34) on the daily chart;
- 3 Rising Methods pattern on the daily chart;
- presumably, this upside correction will reach 61.8% Fibonacci level.

Arguments for downside movement:
- the price is still below MA (34) on the weekly chart;
- steep previous downside movement signalise that bears are in command and the price may fall down soon.

 

[brty]

client,

and a rather significant resistance level overall.

no it isn't.

That chart is a terrible example of "significant" support and resistance.

brty

 

[bunyip]

Client

Thanks for sharing your analysis.
With all due respect to your methods, in my opinion you're over-analysing, making it unnecessarily complex.

Simpler by far is to find a new trend (they're happening all the time), buy the temporary retracements if it's an uptrend, or short the temporary rallies if it's a downtrend. Do this in stocks in the weakest sectors for shorts, and in stocks in the strongest sectors for longs.
Stick with the trade until you have evidence that the trend has run out of steam.
Your choice of how you identify a trend, or whether you look for a trend on a couple of timeframes, say weekly and daily.
But whatever your method of trend identification, find a new trend, wait for it to pause or retrace briefly, climb aboard and go for a ride.
Some people call it 'putting yourself in front of momentum'. Some call it 'trend hitch-hiking'.

I realise that we don't all trade the same way, and different methods suit different people and different personalities.

My preference is for simplicity - the simpler I make it, the more profitable my results. The successful traders I correspond with all say the same thing.
For me, trend hitch-hiking has been the simplest and most profitable of the many different strategies I've tried.

 

[Client]

Client

Thanks for sharing your analysis.
With all due respect to your methods, in my opinion you're over-analysing, making it unnecessarily complex.

Simpler by far is to find a new trend (they're happening all the time), buy the temporary retracements if it's an uptrend, or short the temporary rallies if it's a downtrend. Do this in stocks in the weakest sectors for shorts, and in stocks in the strongest sectors for longs.
Stick with the trade until you have evidence that the trend has run out of steam.
Your choice of how you identify a trend, or whether you look for a trend on a couple of timeframes, say weekly and daily.
But whatever your method of trend identification, find a new trend, wait for it to pause or retrace briefly, climb aboard and go for a ride.
Some people call it 'putting yourself in front of momentum'. Some call it 'trend hitch-hiking'.

I realise that we don't all trade the same way, and different methods suit different people and different personalities.

My preference is for simplicity - the simpler I make it, the more profitable my results. The successful traders I correspond with all say the same thing.
For me, trend hitch-hiking has been the simplest and most profitable of the many different strategies I've tried.

Actually, I do the same. Like they say, the trend continues more often than changes its direction. We just need to catch its continuation... But hte charts above may be not the best examples of it. Well... good charts and trends will come later, I am sure of that )

 

[MRC & Co]

This thread/method is so 'technical' I wonder if it even works! It's like reading a TA book!

Where is some insight?

 

[Mr J]

Trendlines, channels, moving averages, fibos, horizontals, elliot waves, candlestick patterns, downward rollback, upside correction, and a 3 way high wave rising tower bottom. Feel like I'm singing the 12 days of Christmas .

 

[Client]

Alcoa Inc (AA), one of the Dow Jones listed stocks, fell below the weekly trendline to the MA (34). This fall was started by a bearish engulfing pattern about 2 months ago. Now the price is in corrective movement with low trading volume. If the long red bar occurs next week, a continuation bearish pattern will be formed.

On the daily chart this correction seems to have a form of an ascending triangle. According to various technical analysis theories Triangle is a continuation pattern and after (if) the price breaches the lower ascending line, the downside movement will continue. Take to attention that the price often breaks the top resistance level of a triangle and quickly retraces back.
The gap and the middle of the previous long red candle serve as additional resistance levels.

 

[tech/a]

There is nothing wrong with the analysis but its just analysis with caveat as always for an each way bet.
If you want to trade it then you'd better take an each way punt as the analyst has in his presentation.
Personally I don't like any of them from a technical standpoint as a possible trade.---at least to the long side.

 

[explod]

Client

Thanks for sharing your analysis.
With all due respect to your methods, in my opinion you're over-analysing, making it unnecessarily complex.

Simpler by far is to find a new trend (they're happening all the time), buy the temporary retracements if it's an uptrend, or short the temporary rallies if it's a downtrend. Do this in stocks in the weakest sectors for shorts, and in stocks in the strongest sectors for longs.
Stick with the trade until you have evidence that the trend has run out of steam.
Your choice of how you identify a trend, or whether you look for a trend on a couple of timeframes, say weekly and daily.
But whatever your method of trend identification, find a new trend, wait for it to pause or retrace briefly, climb aboard and go for a ride.
Some people call it 'putting yourself in front of momentum'. Some call it 'trend hitch-hiking'.

I realise that we don't all trade the same way, and different methods suit different people and different personalities.

My preference is for simplicity - the simpler I make it, the more profitable my results. The successful traders I correspond with all say the same thing.
For me, trend hitch-hiking has been the simplest and most profitable of the many different strategies I've tried.

An absolutely top post Bunyip. All you newbies get onto this. Simple stupid is the best way. No one is smart enough to predict and no mechanism can predict, but they can certainly cloud the picture.

I do not short, that's just me. Best points for long, (a) the hottest sector, (b) the hottest stock by both uptrend and basic fundamentals, and (c)I will only take on well run stuff; and I like emerging producers.