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Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I jumpped in a couple of weeks ago in the mid 60's on what i thought was going to be a brief down spike. I'm surprised its made it this low but not concerned long term. At what price do I buy more is the question...
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

If I had any spare money I would have been topping up over this period . I see the second half of this year as the time for big improvement in sp for AVX with Phase 3 trials occuring. Of course results might not appear until early 2008; but we have always considered this a long-termer.

This from FN Arena this week:

Avexa Looks Cheap
FN Arena News - June 20 2007

By Greg Peel

Relative biotech newcomer Avexa (AVX) burst on to the scenes in January when it acquired an HIV drug and proceeded to move into the testing phase. Having started the year at around 30c, the share price quickly rallied, culminating in a spike to almost a dollar in March when the company announced "highly successful results" on completion of its phase IIb trials.

Alas, as is often the case with microcap start-ups, the euphoria was short lived when Avexa announced a $75m capital raising in order to take the drug to phase III testing. $15m was placed with US investors at 53c, and a further $60m was to be raised through a rights issue. Despite receiving $76m in subscriptions for the issue a month later, the stock has not scaled the giddy heights again since, and is trading today at around 57c.

ABN Amro Morgans believes that at this price, the stock is cheap and provides a significant buying opportunity. The analysts have set a 12-month target price of $1.42.
The drug - apricitabine - is more than just a tongue twister. It is, of course, a novel nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. But then you probably knew that. Suffice to say, ATC, as it is thankfully known, is being developed to treat HIV patients currently proving resistant to other drugs.

As is the case with biotechs and their products, Avexa has a timetable of milestones ahead that should prove significant to the stock's fortunes. Trial results will be published at the International Aids Society conference in Sydney next month. Phase III testing sites will be initiated in the second half of '07 and a paediatrics trial will commence.

Says ABN Amro Morgans: "The current share price weakness creates a buying opportunity. The company is well funded with approximately A$80m in cash, sufficient to fund the Phase 3 trials for its HIV compound."

ABN anticipates the passing of the aforementioned milestones will have a positive impact on the share price.
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited



I bought in a few weeks ago and fingers crossed on this one... my guess is the bull punters are selling off above the 53c subscription for a nervous profit and/or end of tax year trading.....

I am reading some good things:

-directors are buying in...
-in absense of takeover bid (giddy up!), probably 2 years to enjoy strong returns
-recent Canadian research suggests ATC more active against drug resistant mutations than first thought
-more comprehensive data from 24 week trial probably released September


The future is fish and Aids
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

She's running nicely today. Up nearly 10% on the day as of writing this. Is there some more news coming, or have investors been taking notice of analysts predictions?
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Got a spec buy rec in The Australian last week. Plus i think it was well oversold in the lead up to end of fin year. They do have announcements coming.

Avexa (AVX) 61.5c

SHARES in the HIV treatment developer have drifted well off their March 22 peak of 98c, which makes for a buying opportunity for the intrepid.

As is often the case with biotech stocks, the pull-back simply results from a dearth of recent news, good or bad. This is likely to change next month when Avexa fronts the Global Aids Symposium in Sydney with an update of its clinical trials.

Avexa has already reported a positive start to the Phase 2B trials of its lead compound Apricitabine, involving advanced-stage patients who may have developed immunity to other treatments.

Avexa is funded to the tune of $80 million, having raised $75million in a monster rights raising and placement in March. It's therefore well funded for the crucial Phase 3 testing period, scheduled for next year. Avexa hopes to enrol its first patients for the paediatric trial by the end of calendar 2007.

In January, Avexa paid $12million to secure US and Canadian distribution, so it's not taking the usual approach of limiting the upside by doing a royalty deal with a big pharma partner.

Criterion rated Avexa a SPECULATIVE BUY at 22c in October last year and at 57c in February. We maintain that call with the proviso that such stocks get hammered when markets turn really bearish (Wednesday's poncy 2 per cent sell-off doesn't count).
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Ruprect said:
Got a spec buy rec in The The Australian last week.

(Wednesday's poncy 2 per cent sell-off doesn't count).
Click to expand...

Did they actually write that, or did you add that in? If it was in The Australian, that's damn hilarious! I haven't heard that word for ages!!!
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Lol, no, thats all theirs. Sorry, i should have put it in italics. Poncy, yes, an underused word. Im sorry i cant claim credit for it.
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Well about time it picked up a bit!

Ive hated watching it slide so much especially after buying at a hefty price to gain acess to the rights issue

I dont know of any upcoming news though.
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Positive 24 week phase IIb clinical update released today. Would explain the recent jump in the price.
Cheers!
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Sydney Aids conference is on this week. Fingers crossed that some more good news comes out and the share price goes for a little run!
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

ASX announcement 4 Sept: "...positive 24 week data from the phase 2b clinical
trial of apricitabine (ATC) ..."

Grains of salt under the tongue and all that, but is this good enough to take the big plunge? I hold a few $ 000 in AVX, should I go for more, I wonder?

Wiser opinions appreciated.
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I bought a few more today-should have the other week, really! Everything is risk vs reward, so you have to assess it for yourself. For me, I feel I know enough to be confident enough to have a wager on this one-all the signs are positive re the drug's effectiveness. You can argue that the sample set is not big enough, but geez, the results are still extremely compelling. Add to that the FDA's stance on AIDs drugs that have passed Phase II trials, and then look at the likelihood of Aids being eradicated (ie a cure) in the near future by a new technology. Then make up your mind. I am not a biochemist so I do not speak with authority re the science here.
Good luck with your choice.
Cheers!
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

A check on Commsec before opening indicates that AVX is on the rise with buyers outweighing sellers. This one owes me $0.71 so I am hopeful that COB today may see me break even.

I have no intention of considering selling unless/until the sp reaches $1 when I will review my position.
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I watched AVX for months, then jumped on at .96c in March!

Being holding since (being new to shares and not knowing much) But I do fully believe that this company has a great product!

Perhaps one day a takeover from a bigger fish might help my holdings in AVX grow

Ive learnt the power of stop losses now, so should be right if it takes a dive in the future..hehe
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited



In my opinion all three indicators (Volume, MACD & DMI) in this graph point to a sustained strengthening in the sp. It is important to note that with this stock when the DMI+ indicator takes over it uusually stays that way for a sustained period of time.

I will therefore now double my holding tomorrow and let the good times roll.
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited


Following on from that ann. this article today:

Trials Results Suggest Further Upside In Avexa
FN Arena News - September 06 2007
By Chris Shaw

Quoting part thereof:

.... Where Avexa stands out in the broker’s view is the results show success even against drug-resistant HIV, meaning patients who have a number of treatment failures in the past have a chance of improving their condition........

The results put the company on course for a Phase III trial and it is currently preparing the protocols of this trial, the broker expecting it will be conducted early in 2008. A plus for the company is HIV trials tend to be relatively short, while the broker notes almost 90% of HIV drugs that return successful Phase II trials also successfully make it through the Phase III trial stage and onto the market.

The broker’s valuation range for the stock is $0.54-$1.08 so at current levels it likes the risk/reward scenario. Its positive view is matched by ABN Amro, which also rated the stock as a Buy with a price target of $1.37 on the back of the Phase IIB trial results.



So some solace for those who have been hanging in there. I'm looking to top up should we have the expected market retrace over the coming fortnight; at what level, who knows.
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Some positive movements in the sp in recent days without any ann. Whilst it cannot yet be viewed as a breakout, hopefully the momentum will continue and the share will achieve price of $1+ in line with what some analysts were forecasting only a few months ago. Updated chart is attached and I continue to hold at cost price of about $0.71.

 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

SP is up another 4+% this morning again on no news. This might soon become a breakout although the current sp of 70 cents has in recent times always proven a level of resistance. If it gets to 75 cents and is sustained, I think we will then have potential for a substantial breakout.

It will be interesting to see if news follows as turnover in the stock is defintely up over the past 3 days.
 
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

We have definitely reached position where we have at worst a potential breakout with this share having reached $0.755 today well above the resistance level of $0.70.

No need to post another graph on this thread as subscribers can rely on the earlier one which I posted last week.
 
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