TAH - Tabcorp Holdings

[ROE]

I take it everyone is happy with the SPP ;-)

Anyone taking the plunge and buying TAH corporate bonds?

Better return buy the stocks ... it gives similar yield
Bond is more for income earner rather than investor looking for a bit of dividend and capital growth with a bit of risk for capital going backward.

Don't know why people don't get TAH for $5.80 get pass the doom and gloom paper and read into what they do and their market position and various other information I would have bought 50K if they let me

 

[trading_rookie]

I like the bond...good as a hedge regardless if things do or don't improve. If they improve then the fixed margin of 4.25%pa on it's own without taking the 90-day bank bill rate into account, will mean a not too shabby return of 21% over the 5 yr period - I'm assuming the bank bill rate will be useless. Whereas, if things get worse and the rate mirrors '74 double digit numbers then I'll be happy too ;-)

Last time I checked the 90 day Aussie bank bill was @ 3.05% so that would mean a quarterly return of (4.25+3.05) 7.3% pa, better than any banking on-line account or term deposit.

 

[Gerkin]

I like the bond...good as a hedge regardless if things do or don't improve. If they improve then the fixed margin of 4.25%pa on it's own without taking the 90-day bank bill rate into account, will mean a not too shabby return of 21% over the 5 yr period - I'm assuming the bank bill rate will be useless. Whereas, if things get worse and the rate mirrors '74 double digit numbers then I'll be happy too ;-)

Last time I checked the 90 day Aussie bank bill was @ 3.05% so that would mean a quarterly return of (4.25+3.05) 7.3% pa, better than any banking on-line account or term deposit.

I will admit good return, However you should look at the fundamental business that will be producing this income. There are alot of changes happening in Victoria in the next 2 years in regards to gambling especially pokies. Look at this first.

Also look at other listed hybrids/bonds that are currently on offer. You can buy these on the exchanges

 

[trading_rookie]

I will admit good return, However you should look at the fundamental business that will be producing this income. There are alot of changes happening in Victoria in the next 2 years in regards to gambling especially pokies. Look at this first.

Vic is only one dimension of their total core business and if they win the tender for the Tassie tote and/or NSW lotteries, not to mention the recent relocation of an online gaming business they bought in Sydney and moved to NT to cash in on the billions being generated by these on-line services, current revamp of the Sydney Casino, the interest in buying their smaller QLD casinos, even though as far as I’m aware they’re not interested in selling…who knows there might be a deal on the table that no court action over the loss of the VIC pokies will see TAH keep the VIC tote and maybe even win the maintenance contract for VIC pokies…don’t forget NSW tote is a nice little earner.

Pardon the pun, but that’s the ‘gamble’ one takes when investing ;-)

Also look at other listed hybrids/bonds that are currently on offer. You can buy these on the exchanges

The attractive thing about TAH Bonds is the fixed margin…I haven’t seen anyone offer better than that. Not to mention with talk of interest rates going further down, I’m not too keen on paying more for an existing bond that will return less.

As you can probably tell, not interested in buying and selling bonds on the market, I’m comfortable with the risk and happy to see the bond mature in 5 yrs time and not only get back my initial investment but hopefully good returns in a couple of years when all this talk of market recovery turns into fruition and interest rates start going back up …

 

[son of baglimit]

Vic is only one dimension of their total core business and if they win the tender for the Tassie tote and/or NSW lotteries, not to mention the recent relocation of an online gaming business they bought in Sydney and moved to NT to cash in on the billions being generated by these on-line services, current revamp of the Sydney Casino, the interest in buying their smaller QLD casinos, even though as far as I’m aware they’re not interested in selling…who knows there might be a deal on the table that no court action over the loss of the VIC pokies will see TAH keep the VIC tote and maybe even win the maintenance contract for VIC pokies…don’t forget NSW tote is a nice little earner.

as far as TAH's record in buying up other assets, they have tended to go for the large scale buys, rather than small totes etc. go back and see what QTAB paid for SATAB all those years ago - only a few million. tah showed no interest.
yes i know the scene has changed and betfair etc are based there, potentially helping turnover in that state, as well as their well publicised o/s deals, but you can guarantee the state govt has overpriced that asset (totetas) and it will bring very little.

 

[trading_rookie]

as far as TAH's record in buying up other assets, they have tended to go for the large scale buys, rather than small totes etc. go back and see what QTAB paid for SATAB all those years ago - only a few million. tah showed no interest.

But if they lose VIC tote that will only give them NSW, so Tassie would be appealing, small or not.

As a former TAH employee bags, were they interested in QTAB and SATAB or was monopoly concerns one of the reasons they didn’t bid? As history shows, talk of a TAH/Tatts merger would have been rejected on these grounds.

yes i know the scene has changed and betfair etc are based there, potentially helping turnover in that state, as well as their well publicised o/s deals, but you can guarantee the state govt has overpriced that asset (totetas) and it will bring very little.

True, both TAH and Tatts are down playing the governments asking price…by about 100-150 mill, but the government is offering very attractive sweeteners, and from what I’ve read further, are opening up the tender to overseas companies, forcing the 2 Aussie gaming giants to make a tender and keep almost a duopoly in Oz.

 

[son of baglimit]

were they interested in QTAB and SATAB or was monopoly concerns one of the reasons they didn’t bid? As history shows, talk of a TAH/Tatts merger would have been rejected on these grounds.

they bid for qtab, but that was rejected on competition grounds (on very poor reasoning btw)
and yes, theres no chance in hell of tah/tts marrying.

and thanks to the rumour mongers again for the packer takeover stuff back in 07 - a nice exit that was.

 

[trading_rookie]

Tabcorp Bonds (TAHHA) up $2 to $102, and the first quarterly payment will be at 7.33%...not bad, not bad indeed.

 

[ROE]

I will admit good return, However you should look at the fundamental business that will be producing this income. There are alot of changes happening in Victoria in the next 2 years in regards to gambling especially pokies. Look at this first.

Also look at other listed hybrids/bonds that are currently on offer. You can buy these on the exchanges

that is old news already factor that into the price , that sort of doom and gloom scenario create beautiful opportunity for investors who truly understand tabcorp operation

Tabcorp has all the upside from the Victoria Govie decision now that it's factor into the price..one court case could go Tabcorp way...Similar case happen in US and judgement rule in Tabcorp like favor.

and the other one I like to believe that not in the realm of impposibility is most clubs don't have the financial and capital like tabcorp to snap up the license
and bring on the global financial crisis it shape up more likely than not

so in the end it could create head ache for Vic govie and may force to delay or do some deal with Tabcorp in the end

and Victoria only account for Tabcorp 25% earning, why knock this dog around so hard hehe ..FEAR rule the market

oh don't forget the internet fear too , small operators going to kick Tabcorp ass with their nice little wagering internet site...latest report tabcorp wagering up 13% in revenue year to date

 

[No.1MoneyMaker]

Is any one still following this?? The price looks quite attempting, and I'm thinking to get in. But the price has just dropped 10% in one week, any ideas ???

 

[son of baglimit]

following, but only for old times sake.

way too much uncertainty in earnings going forward, with gaming 3 years to run, wagering licence in vic to be determined, and star city getting spending for inconsistent returns. on an historical level the SP is attractive, but not for me right now, especially with no free govt money on the horizon.

 

[Dark1975]

big push today,gunna come back with charts to see if there's a potential key reversal here,not sure yet brb if anything interesting

 

[skip9]

Have seen alot of "Buy" recommendations for this stock. Whats there future, even though they will be losing their Pokies license, it generally has good dividends. Anybody have some useful information or thoughts about Tabcorp?

 

[rtjoa]

Have seen alot of "Buy" recommendations for this stock. Whats there future, even though they will be losing their Pokies license, it generally has good dividends. Anybody have some useful information or thoughts about Tabcorp?

Hi Skip, I'm a beginner in stock trading. However, heres my

I think this year will be a good year for bookmakers (one of TAB subsidiary), with the world cup is in play. Generally for all bookies across the globe this will be the time when betting turnovers will be at its peak.

With Australia being a multicultural country (most importantly socceroo is there as well), I can see this can be a great year for TABSportsbet. However, the emergence of online bookies has certainly took some share of the pie in the betting market from TAB. Nevertheless, It is not something that your average joe gambler are comfortable with. Somehow they are still not too convinced with online bookmakers' credibility on them handling their money. As for TAB, your money is more or less 100% safe (very important for high stakes roller).

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

There has been no banter on this one for a while. Considering the heavy background volume in May and a speeding ticket revealing no information, are we seeing a new trend back up after a double bottom at the point of one year lows or is it looking like another countertrend with an expiry not too far away?
Disclosure: I hold for technical reasons suitable to me.

 

[pixel]

There has been no banter on this one for a while. Considering the heavy background volume in May and a speeding ticket revealing no information, are we seeing a new trend back up after a double bottom at the point of one year lows or is it looking like another countertrend with an expiry not too far away?
Disclosure: I hold for technical reasons suitable to me.

you're not alone, SP
I started buying at the break on the 20th, but decided it'd be better to be a well-off coward than a broke daredevil - and sold last Friday.
As today's trading closed above previous resistance, I bought back in.
$7.12, $7.28, $7.52 are my next targets (but I'll take early profit again if resistance levels won't agree with me.)

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

you're not alone, SP
I started buying at the break on the 20th, but decided it'd be better to be a well-off coward than a broke daredevil - and sold last Friday.
As today's trading closed above previous resistance, I bought back in.
$7.12, $7.28, $7.52 are my next targets (but I'll take early profit again if resistance levels won't agree with me.)

Hi Pixel,

With a good week of rises on this one, did you take a Friday sell opportunity again? It seems to have dropped a bit, which is ok, with a bit more volume than previous days this week. I see it as if Friday sellers offloaded some, perhaps. Interesting psychology why risk is not held over the weekend. I still hold.

 

[pixel]

Hi Pixel,

With a good week of rises on this one, did you take a Friday sell opportunity again? It seems to have dropped a bit, which is ok, with a bit more volume than previous days this week. I see it as if Friday sellers offloaded some, perhaps. Interesting psychology why risk is not held over the weekend. I still hold.

Hi SP,
I actually sold already on Thursday for $6.89; the decision was based

1. on Options distribution, which peaked at $6.87
2. on price target analysis, which suggested resistance at first Fibonacci level
3. and seeing the overhead one-year EMA

Re #1, consider that Friday's volume includes 902,000 shares sold at $6.87 by options writers, who had already pocketed the premium and can't feel too unhappy about selling at that price. Imagine how they'd feel if they had an inkling that TAH may drop back to the $6.70's if not lower : (I'm sure you know that the majority of options are written by large Fundies and Hedgies.)
Re #2 and 3, see the chart below.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hi SP,
I actually sold already on Thursday for $6.89; the decision was based

1. on Options distribution, which peaked at $6.87
2. on price target analysis, which suggested resistance at first Fibonacci level
3. and seeing the overhead one-year EMA

Re #1, consider that Friday's volume includes 902,000 shares sold at $6.87 by options writers, who had already pocketed the premium and can't feel too unhappy about selling at that price. Imagine how they'd feel if they had an inkling that TAH may drop back to the $6.70's if not lower : (I'm sure you know that the majority of options are written by large Fundies and Hedgies.)
Re #2 and 3, see the chart below.
View attachment 38161

Pixel,
It seems you are on a shorter time frame to me. On the daily I am happy to see it drop back a bit to confirm the break level.
Cheers...

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I got ripped up on the big nasty open gap with TAH. Any profit I had on Wednesday was gone by Thursday. Now out.