T/A lost the plot

[It's Snake Pliskin]

BNB any Ta on this ?
Final wave a,b completing, c to come?

 

[coyotte]

Got to admit I'm confused by this point.

Exactly what is wrong about not going beyond Weinstein for a long term trend following system? Long term trend following hasn't changed over the years. Livermore did it before Weinstein.

Three pretty compelling arguments FOR the TechTrader system are;
1. It's got a positive expectancy
2. The entry is better than random entry
3. It beats buy and hold

That's all you need a system (any system over any time frame) to do.

Nothing WRONG with this style.

But Weinstein's, Gupppy's Trend Trading --- and most other Trending techniques can be vastly improved by introducing appropriate EXITS.

Surely you wouldn't stand by and watch 20% of profits evaporate on the grounds that the system told me it will recover!

Or bring in the the costs -- at the most a couple of 100 bucks at the risk of losing 1000s ----- or tax! -- as any good accountant will tell you "Profits is your job -- Tax is ours "

Surely a better approach is to take at least some profit on the topping "roll over" -- and buy back in at a lower price --- if wrong, buy back in --what's it cost? -- a bit of brokerage(insurance) --- after all it's not a real physical thing your buying/selling -- it's PRICE.


Cheers

 

[ducati916]

Hi Duc,

I beg to differ.

Looks like you took the bait well on that one. Will certainly go fishing this weekend.

I recall that you have actually made a similar statement yourself. Have you changed your mind or view?

Cheers,
Les.

Fundamentals will be early.
I doubt very much I would have said any differently in the last couple of years. If you go back beyond that, it's possible I may have, if so I recant.

jog on
d998

 

[coyotte]

Footnote to P102

If you have been holding any stock long term , that would put you in a position where you should know this stock like the back of your hand ---- that would make that stock ideal for you to S/M term trade at least a portion of it.



Cheers

 

[ducati916]

tech/a

That's what I like, a bit of selectivity in the evidence. To those of course you could add the closed positions.

You could also add as discussed on this forum; Gold, Commodities, BHP, RIO, VCR, HSP, etc.

As we have discussed in the past, what constitutes a profit or a loss?
Open profits and losses or closed profits and losses?

I argue closed.
Thus open trades are still open to develop, they may or may not result in a loss. If they result in a profit, then it simply proves my point of being early. If a loss how does it prove your point?

jog on
d998

 

[nizar]

People need to simplify their trading analysis and just look at the price action, it will make much more sense than trying to think too much.....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=137068#post137068

Regards,
Frank Dilernia

Worth repeating.

 

[tech/a]

tech/a

That's what I like, a bit of selectivity in the evidence. To those of course you could add the closed positions.

You could also add as discussed on this forum; Gold, Commodities, BHP, RIO, VCR, HSP, etc.

As we have discussed in the past, what constitutes a profit or a loss?
Open profits and losses or closed profits and losses?

I argue closed.
Thus open trades are still open to develop, they may or may not result in a loss. If they result in a profit, then it simply proves my point of being early. If a loss how does it prove your point?
jog on
d998

Duc we have argued this infinitum.

Portfolio valuation if it doesnt include open positions is a cockeyed way of valuing your performance.
2 yrs to go my friend.

If not yes it proves the point that a portfolio with open losses must be considered when valuing your holdings.The NETT result (Profit) will be diluted by those losses until you either take the losses or DIE.---in which case you wont give a rats.

Coyotte

Or bring in the the costs -- at the most a couple of 100 bucks at the risk of losing 1000s ----- or tax! -- as any good accountant will tell you "Profits is your job -- Tax is ours "

Surely a better approach is to take at least some profit on the topping "roll over" -- and buy back in at a lower price --- if wrong, buy back in --what's it cost? -- a bit of brokerage(insurance) --- after all it's not a real physical thing your buying/selling -- it's PRICE.

Whenever you wish to demonstrate this on any portfolio you wish realtime for say the next 12 mths (let alone 4yrs) I'm all eyes.
When you attempt to do so you will learn how much you dont know and how little you think you know.

Try it!----infact I suggest ANYONE try it here on ASF.

Ive stuck my Trading where my BEAK is so has duc and Stevo.

 

[$$Magnet$$]

Its price action thats OK.

$$Magnet$$

A post pre correction would give more weight. First post reeks of a past poster cranking up again.No added value just how clever you are.

Go back to Frankies post and look at 9th Feb Post.
Look at the 6063 line CLEARLY on the chart on the 9th Feb at aound the date area that prices fell from 6064.
Pretty damed good analysis way way before time.

Tech/A,

Been watching this board since its inception on and off but never bothered to register to post til now so I am no past poster. : Are you gonna dictate who should post and what, too. : It's less stressful to ignore 'no value' postings you know. Who cares about correct analysis anyway, someone of out of hundreds have to be right sometimes. It's the $$$$ each FY that counts.
What's the pt of something being correct if you did nothing beforehand. By now it's too late BTw, my porfolio is now back to where it was before the correction. 28 longs. Offloaded some, added some.

Congrats Frankie if you didn't doubt your own analysis.

 

[$$Magnet$$]

Nothing WRONG with this style.

But Weinstein's, Gupppy's Trend Trading --- and most other Trending techniques can be vastly improved by introducing appropriate EXITS.

Surely you wouldn't stand by and watch 20% of profits evaporate on the grounds that the system told me it will recover!

Or bring in the the costs -- at the most a couple of 100 bucks at the risk of losing 1000s ----- or tax! -- as any good accountant will tell you "Profits is your job -- Tax is ours "

Surely a better approach is to take at least some profit on the topping "roll over" -- and buy back in at a lower price ---
Cheers

Good one!

 

[ducati916]

tech/a

Which is relevant to the topic.
Fundamentals are *early*. That at times they may be [and often are] TOO EARLY is a moot point and should improve with experience.

jog on
d998

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Duc we have argued this infinitum.

Portfolio valuation if it doesnt include open positions is a cockeyed way of valuing your performance.
2 yrs to go my friend.

If not yes it proves the point that a portfolio with open losses must be considered when valuing your holdings.The NETT result (Profit) will be diluted by those losses until you either take the losses or DIE.---in which case you wont give a rats.

Coyotte


Whenever you wish to demonstrate this on any portfolio you wish realtime for say the next 12 mths (let alone 4yrs) I'm all eyes.
When you attempt to do so you will learn how much you dont know and how little you think you know.

Try it!----infact I suggest ANYONE try it here on ASF.

Ive stuck my Trading where my BEAK is so has duc and Stevo.

Tech,
Why does everything have to be a slugfest?

 

[tech/a]

Tech,
Why does everything have to be a slugfest?

Snake.

(1)Its pretty obvious some dont trade.
OR
(2)Some simply analyse
OR
(3)Some dont make consistent profit---anyone can have a winning trade.
OR
(4)Some have no idea about application of analysis---any form of analysis.
OR
(5)A combination of the above.

If they did they wouldnt be making points which clearly point to the above conclusions.
Dont get me wrong some here do consistently make profit and clearly they dont post rubbish.

Others just dont add to the board at all.No explaination,no example to support views just parrot fashion,from what they have read.They've never implemented anything with consistency into their trading.
Whats the value of the initial post from $$Magnet$$ ?? Forget this forget that
Ive been doing this for 13 yrs and your all on the wrongside of the trade.
Maybe so but whats the value to the forum in telling all that you've been on the right side 3 weeks after the event.

My post to Coyotte wasnt/isnt a challenge to him or anyone---its a serious suggestion.
You'd be suprised what you'd learn if you posted your (or anyone did) trading out in the open. Let me tell you it keeps you honest. Ive had 100s of eyes dissect T/T over 4 yrs each and everyone who have given constructive input or constructive critisism have added to my and many others knowledge.
We/I question what we do and how we do it.

Ive had my fair share of run ins with GANN practitioners.They work like many other on Prove--disprove analysis. But AS YET Ive not seen practical application of the method.Calling 5 or 6 possible dates or points of interest are a far cry from practical application. Show me how you apply the 5 or 6 dates into your trading-----just do it on 6 stocks or 6 times on an index.
That would be adding to the forum. Not to prove you can trade but that the analysis is worth the time and effort to learn and can be APPLIED in realtime trading.

My view while un-palatable to some generates debate. Hey I learn a lot from these threads---am I the only one?

 

[stoxclimber]

Oh I see you want the figures presented hit the day after!!!!!

At what point can one say that the prediction is incorrect? State a date so that, on that date, we can assess whether, for example, your prediction was accurate or not. I was under the impression that when one draws a line on the chart indicating the direction of the underlying asset/index, it was a prediction that the asset or index would follow the direction of that line [which implies a date]. If this understanding was incorrect, please inform me of the date or reasonable date range upon which we can judge the accuracy of your prediction. Upon that date, we can resolve the issue conclusively.

The same goes for others who made similar predictions.

This lack of understanding and un educated comment just keeps coming.
What are your veiws on Heart Surgery

My knowledge is indeed uneducated. However, what I can understand is that where a person makes a prediction that A is true, and A does not occur, and this happens often enough to make it statisically quite unlikely that it is due to randomness, the analysis is most likely flawed. And that is the case here.

Is some to all of this due to the lack of skill and experience in those posting the analysis? Undoubtably. But I don't see why you would dispute the point that the analysis posted is incorrect.

I do have one question for you. You disparage me for criticising technical analysis done by posters on this board without mastering it myself, yet lash out at fundamental analysis yourself. Can I take it that you are quite experienced with fundamental analysis and would be comfortable going over the finer details of a dcf/comp valuation model for an ASX listed company with me?

I don't see why you feel that I must master technical analysis to criticise posters who make incorrect prediction after incorrect prediction. I wouldn't say that you need to master fundamental analysis before calling a simplistic comparison of P/Es or a grossly optimistic and unfounded revenue forecast incorrect.

-------

In regards to the open positions versus closed positions for profit/loss in fundamental portfolios:

Firstly, the true profit/loss on a fundamental portfolio can only be determined when the assets are no longer capable of producing free cash flows either now or into the future.

However, if one is trading these assets on a publically traded market then the profit or loss can only truly be said to be that determined by the last traded price of the assets + any cash flows to the asset holder from the asset - the purchase price of the asset.

 

[tech/a]

At what point can one say that the prediction is incorrect? State a date so that, on that date, we can assess whether, for example, your prediction was accurate or not.

Firstly understand that its not a prediction its a "What if" I and others here have given levels which "Could" and are likely to occur if one or the other points of analysis are proven or Disproven.Markets are dynamic and so is discretionary trading.

I was under the impression that when one draws a line on the chart indicating the direction of the underlying asset/index, it was a prediction that the asset or index would follow the direction of that line [which implies a date]. If this understanding was incorrect, please inform me of the date or reasonable date range upon which we can judge the accuracy of your prediction. Upon that date, we can resolve the issue conclusively.The same goes for others who made similar predictions.

A line or a price point is simply to be proven or disproven.If a trendline is broken then you have a decision to make if that is a trigger to your trading.
As for time,I personally dont know some here have that capability and given the timeline will also be in a situation of again prove/disprove.Same as Fundamental analysis---when will a company reach the "True" value from a point of percieved under value---will that alter as time goes by? If it does does that make the original analysis wrong? Is fundamental analysis a waste of time then.Should Fundamental analysts never change a buy/sell recommendation or technical analysts select another time and price point just so practioners or followers can clearly define right or wrong?

My knowledge is indeed uneducated. However, what I can understand is that where a person makes a prediction that A is true, and A does not occur, and this happens often enough to make it statisically quite unlikely that it is due to randomness, the analysis is most likely flawed. And that is the case here.

Well I dont agree.Many here did call very close to the top of this last move,how they took advantage of it or APPLIED it to their trading is only privvy to them and only matters to them.Only they know how they apply it and wether it is to their advantage.Unlike you I have seen Elliot Wave analysis applied in very effective ways. Hence my renewed interest and my own research into the way I will be applying it to my discretionary trading.Ive used it myself with good success---not perfect at times but thats more to do with the practioner (me) than the Analysis method.

Is some to all of this due to the lack of skill and experience in those posting the analysis? Undoubtably. But I don't see why you would dispute the point that the analysis posted is incorrect.

If it proves to be incorrect or price action suggests otherwise to the analysis at the time or at a time in the future then you take appropriate action based upon further analysis given the facts now available and so it goes on. The search for finite points of accuracy are futile until proven.Confusing yes but once you understand then very easy.

I do have one question for you. You disparage me for criticising technical analysis done by posters on this board without mastering it myself, yet lash out at fundamental analysis yourself. Can I take it that you are quite experienced with fundamental analysis and would be comfortable going over the finer details of a dcf/comp valuation model for an ASX listed company with me?

In the end we would have a valuation for a company---it could be right it could be wrong---time would tell. I could as---I have 2 companies of my own and an accountant (in house) who takes care of the nuts and bolts accounting for me.I may not be as susinct as you its not my specialty but I will understand it. I'm no accountant dont profess to be but my chagrin is with those who are clearly readers of announcements trading in short timeframes and basically punting. Not all fundamental traders---as not all technical traders are misled peanuts attempting to make a quick buck.
Regardless of type of analysis the application is the key,being right isnt---not even close.

I don't see why you feel that I must master technical analysis to criticise posters who make incorrect prediction after incorrect prediction.

Your continued reference to technical analysis as being solely predictive with finite price or time points,shows your level of APPLICATION of analysis.Its not about being right,its about consistent application to in the end profit.

I wouldn't say that you need to master fundamental analysis before calling a simplistic comparison of P/Es or a grossly optimistic and unfounded revenue forecast incorrect.

How I interpret fundamentals is of no consequence to the market in general.
Duc has proven that. He is no slouch when it come to fundamentals and has found a number of companies in HIS OPINION undervalued. The market didnt---- and at this time dont agree and some are now a full 50% lower in price than his learned "Undervalued" buy price. So just to get back to his "Undervalued" price they have to rise a full 100%. Is he buying more---should he have bought more when the "Bargain" price fell a further 25%? Would you?--Do you?

-------

In regards to the open positions versus closed positions for profit/loss in fundamental portfolios:

Why just fundamental---why not the valuation of ANY portfolio?

Firstly, the true profit/loss on a fundamental portfolio can only be determined when the assets are no longer capable of producing free cash flows either now or into the future.

True/agree.

However, if one is trading these assets on a publically traded market then the profit or loss can only truly be said to be that determined by the last traded price of the assets + any cash flows to the asset holder from the asset - the purchase price of the asset.

True and agree again no arguement.
Add up the pluses deduct the open losses or add the open profits at ANY point in time and there is the Portfolio valuation at THAT time.

tech

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Tech/A,

Been watching this board since its inception on and off but never bothered to register to post til now so I am no past poster. : Are you gonna dictate who should post and what, too. : It's less stressful to ignore 'no value' postings you know. Who cares about correct analysis anyway, someone of out of hundreds have to be right sometimes. It's the $$$$ each FY that counts.
What's the pt of something being correct if you did nothing beforehand. By now it's too late BTw, my porfolio is now back to where it was before the correction. 28 longs. Offloaded some, added some.

Congrats Frankie if you didn't doubt your own analysis.

Very well said

That is a gold medal post.

Tech/A what makes you right and others wrong? it does not matter how or what you trade.

All the matters is you make more money that you lose! no matter how + you never stop learning and improving yourself in your own way in your own time!

All I get from your posts is I am right your wrong shut up and read what I say!

In last few days I have made a very very nice profit from longs and now thinking about adding to them on a weekly confirmation! I have been openly bullish for over a week now and will be till told otherwise by my boss the market!

Lets have a post share and care session! It's not worth the angry posts??

Peace out

 

[>Apocalypto<]

In the absence of Yogi who must be having a busy weekend collecting picnic baskets I'll have a go at deciphering a practical use for the time targets.

by Tech/A in Yogi question page 1

Man I laughed so hard I nearly choked on my starburst snake!

Very funny Tech

 

[MichaelD]

But Weinstein's, Gupppy's Trend Trading --- and most other Trending techniques can be vastly improved by introducing appropriate EXITS.

Surely you wouldn't stand by and watch 20% of profits evaporate on the grounds that the system told me it will recover!

Or bring in the the costs -- at the most a couple of 100 bucks at the risk of losing 1000s ----- or tax! -- as any good accountant will tell you "Profits is your job -- Tax is ours "

Surely a better approach is to take at least some profit on the topping "roll over" -- and buy back in at a lower price --- if wrong, buy back in --what's it cost? -- a bit of brokerage(insurance) --- after all it's not a real physical thing your buying/selling -- it's PRICE.

I disagree that this technique could improve the exit due to the constant slippage of getting out and then back in again at a higher price when you call the tops incorrectly. The real profit killer for a trend following system is cutting profits short, not letting the last little bit of profit go before the exit triggers.

However - please be more specific - if it's codable, I'd certainly be interested in backtesting the concept.

There is one possible exception that I'd possibly concede - exiting a trade early that's gone parabolic and buying back in. Maybe (I haven't backtested it).

 

[lesm]

Fundamentals are *early*. That at times they may be [and often are] TOO EARLY is a moot point and should improve with experience.

jog on
d998

Hi Duc,

I have no question or doubt in my mind as to your knowledge and abilities with respect to FA, but find it interesting that you subscribe to the above view. That doesn't mean the above view is always incorrect, but I fail to see how you can refer to it as a truism.

If it was, stock analysts using an FA based approach should get it right more times than they appear to. But, if course if you wait long enough it may become true, as in a self fulfilling prophecy. Then again it may not, so how long do you wait before you move on.

In a perfectly ideal world I may agree with you, but in the real/practical world I would consider it a potentially flawed or limited view. Has the feel of an EMH/MPF view of the markets.

Have you considered factors that can have a lead-lag effect on the market an stocks dependent upon industry or company size?

Delays in dissemination of information can also have a lead or lag effect. An ealry receiver of the information may experience lead effect, whereas a late receiver of the information may experience a lag effect, as they have received the infromation after the event and the market has already reacted. This can also have an impact on economic indicators.

Market sentiment may play a role where the fundamentals will effectively lag the market. In this regard, market participants may form a negative view of a company and the fundamentals may not confirm or reflect this until some later time.

Consider Enron, which came first the market negative reaction/sentiment or the news that confirmed there was an issue with the fundamentals?

Depending where comapnies sit in the supply chain may also be factor as to whether fundamentals lead or lag the market. A change in commodity pricing can have an effect on industreis that rely on these commodities and the real effect of those changes may see the reaction exhibited in the market pricing before it shows up in the fundamentals.

It also relies on full disclosure and all relevant facts being provided in the company report and associated financial statements. Of course, no creative accounting is occuring.

It may be argued that company reports and finacial reports are correct at the time they are produced, but then how long are they valid for. There is also an inherent delay between the time related to preparing and finalising the report before it is officially released.

Just a few thoughts and comments for now.

Cheers,
Les.

 

[coyotte]

Snake.
My view while un-palatable to some generates debate. Hey I learn a lot from these threads---am I the only one?

Point taken Tech.

Couldn't say I have learned much from most posts -- but some have kindled an interest in areas I had otherwise dismissed, with a limited number of posters pointing the guiding finger --- most of the S/T Traders posts have been very revealing though -- have quietly learned heaps from a handful of these posters.

Although one does begin to realize how fair one has journeyed over the years when reading the posts from new players. --- As you sort of at times try to teach others, it seems amazing how much info you can either relearn or discard --- often wonder who is the real beneficiary.

Your point about posting live trades I find strange --- Whenever I have attempted this on this site -- I have been howled down for not following orthodox USA methods --- or belittled for using a method not approved on this site? --- Classic was yesterday in your reply to a post I posted in reply to a post in this thread (what where T/A Traders doing now?).

This site I find excellent for the stew of disciplines, each have something to offer if you look for it ---- but you and your disciples seem hell bent on that it must one way, and one way only -- if that's what your after join a religious group --- creativity, diversity is being destroyed on this site with that attitude.

What more could anyone want in a forum if left to run its course -- Analysts, Traders, Investors, Gann, EW, F/A, T/A with the various schools of each, with new approaches popping up now and then --- sure we all knock each other -- that unfortunately is human nature --- why not just try to learn from each other, accept it or reject it, but don't kill it!


The whole point of this thread which I along with others was guilty of, was the blatant posting of a school of T/A which I and others are in Kindy with -- sure post for a question or query on the subject but to kid ourselves we knew more than those qualified by experience, I say is Losing the Plot --- hence the thread.

If this offends, then so be it -- but it is reality.

Cheers

 

[constable]

Hi Duc,

I have no question or doubt in my mind as to your knowledge and abilities with respect to FA, but find it interesting that you subscribe to the above view. That doesn't mean the above view is always incorrect, but I fail to see how you can refer to it as a truism.

If it was, stock analysts using an FA based approach should get it right more times than they appear to. But, if course if you wait long enough it may become true, as in a self fulfilling prophecy. Then again it may not, so how long do you wait before you move on.

In a perfectly ideal world I may agree with you, but in the real/practical world I would consider it a potentially flawed or limited view. Has the feel of an EMH/MPF view of the markets.

Have you considered factors that can have a lead-lag effect on the market an stocks dependent upon industry or company size?

Delays in dissemination of information can also have a lead or lag effect. An ealry receiver of the information may experience lead effect, whereas a late receiver of the information may experience a lag effect, as they have received the infromation after the event and the market has already reacted. This can also have an impact on economic indicators.

Market sentiment may play a role where the fundamentals will effectively lag the market. In this regard, market participants may form a negative view of a company and the fundamentals may not confirm or reflect this until some later time.

Consider Enron, which came first the market negative reaction/sentiment or the news that confirmed there was an issue with the fundamentals?

Depending where comapnies sit in the supply chain may also be factor as to whether fundamentals lead or lag the market. A change in commodity pricing can have an effect on industreis that rely on these commodities and the real effect of those changes may see the reaction exhibited in the market pricing before it shows up in the fundamentals.

It also relies on full disclosure and all relevant facts being provided in the company report and associated financial statements. Of course, no creative accounting is occuring.

It may be argued that company reports and finacial reports are correct at the time they are produced, but then how long are they valid for. There is also an inherent delay between the time related to preparing and finalising the report before it is officially released.

Just a few thoughts and comments for now.

Cheers,
Les.

Les im not all that interested in weighing into this subject too heavily but from my limited exp on the market (6 months fulltime or so ) ive come to the conclusion that cutting edge indication is to trade price action. Your fundamental analysis can be fantastic but unless the masses follow it wont mean jack.
Price action is and always will be the immediate market reaction reguardless of what else is happening and what complex indicator analysis you use.
At the end of the day the one thing every single trader out there has in common is
WE ARE ALL TRYING TO PREDICT FUTURE PRICE MOVEMENTS.
Price action is the closest anyone is going too get, so tight stops are the greatest saviour of capital. While you may well miss out on some great runs you will also miss out on some great losses!