T/A lost the plot

[tech/a]

Doom my portfolio trading (well one of them is public record and has been for 4 yrs).
I dont track any of the three on a daily basis.They are so far in open equity its of little importance---

Coyotte

Dont hold BHP that was a out of the blue type what if.

I post enough crap on forums I dont need copious hrs spent proving I can turn a profit or analyse technically.

So I'll re phrase it.

This has become boring to the duck.
Its just not going anywhere.

No I dont care what other people make or lose trading---they could be telling fibbs.

Stick up your trading for 12 mths like a few of us have then if interested I may have a look.
I may not even be bored with what those people post either.

Back to the Pond before flying North!!

 

[wayneL]

As an aside, the only practitioners I know of who are actually making money in THIS market are using hrly, 15-min and 5-min charts.

That's what I've been doing for the last 2.5 years.

Basically swing analysis the daily, but trade signals off intraday 30min chart... works great!

...basically trend trading the lower time frame.

 

[MichaelD]

Doom my portfolio trading (well one of them is public record and has been for 4 yrs).
I dont track any of the three on a daily basis.They are so far in open equity its of little importance---

Didn't you describe them as "haemmorhaging money" in another thread?

 

[tech/a]

Yeh sure did,when the fall came they "haemmorhaged" alright.
5% in a few days on 3 portfolio's.

You'll note the open equity fell from $403,000 to a miserable $383,000
but has recovered to $385,000 as of Friday.
You'll note the Portfolio composite index has risen a little further this week,but I dont expect that to last.

For those even slightly interested

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=74;t=000029;p=6

Nice pik below of the portfolio for last 12 mths.Note the correction drawdown relative to the 12 mths trading.

Nice try Michael---dont you just hate Ducks!

Back to the Duck pond.

 

[Sean K]

Yeh sure did,when the fall came they "haemmorhaged" alright.
5% in a few days on 3 portfolio's.

You'll note the open equity fell from $403,000 to a miserable $383,000
but has recovered to $385,000 as of Friday.
You'll note the Portfolio composite index has risen a little further this week,but I dont expect that to last.

For those even slightly interested

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=74;t=000029;p=6

Nice pik below of the portfolio for last 12 mths.Note the correction drawdown relative to the 12 mths trading.

Nice try Michael---dont you just hate Ducks!

Back to the Duck pond.

Your chart looks to be hitting resistance there Daffy. Possibly set for a potential H&S set up.

Good idea by the way. Wish I had the time to be so organised.....hey....actually I do! .....

 

[MichaelD]

Yeh sure did,when the fall came they "haemmorhaged" alright.
5% in a few days on 3 portfolio's.

It's an interesting choice of word, don't you think? Very emotional. How did it feel to see all that open equity disappear so quickly?

 

[tech/a]

Yes it got your attention.

Just as the headline "Panic" got a lot of attention there.

Its my Marketing bent!
Thanks I'll be sure to keep looking into creative wording,particularly when it gains the attention it so deserves.

How did it feel.
Bit like paying off the Wifes Mastercard.
Similar dent to open equity.
No actually paying off the cards worse particularly after Overseas trips,then its more like 87 and after the States a few years ago that was very similar to 1929---Id imagine.(Im an Old Duck (Sorry about the pun) but not that old!!)

 

[BSD]

How did it feel to see all that open equity disappear so quickly?

From my (90% long) perspective:

1. Easy come, easy go
2. Who cares - back to two months ago (wait for a three or five year setback to get a grasp on the fear)
3. Thank god, finally a shake-out to squeeze the over-leveraged
4. Excellent bargains coming now from fearful sellers - BHP at $26.40 anyone?

With fundamentals intact these pullbacks are only bad for the overleveraged or excessively greedy

 

[Rob_ee]

Tech ... if I may ask ... are you still entering trades on a daily basis on the method you revealed for public scrutiny.

Since you got me into MS (thanks for that) I put it to a little EXTRA use tonight

I spent the last 4hrs running a test on all qualifiers from the 1st of March (the day after the major fall) and came up with some interesting numbers.

This will of course be somewhat different from your portfolio since its only that short time frame.

Quite fascinating what came out ... HVN was the best winner and BLG the worst loser.

Regards
Rob

 

[BSD]

How did it feel.
Bit like paying off the Wifes Mastercard.
Similar dent to open equity.

GOLD!!!!!!!!

 

[theasxgorilla]

It's an interesting choice of word, don't you think? Very emotional. How did it feel to see all that open equity disappear so quickly?

Are we starting a Trading Tribe?

 

[stoxclimber]

Anybody who gets super emotional while stock trading or investing is just a bad trader/investor.

That said, in regards to the thread [and others] there have been an overwhelming number of incorrect technical predictions on the direction of the All Ords on these boards since the correction. I don't think its a reflection on the merits of technical analysis but rather on those applying it [although I don't know anything about it myself]. One can look at the threads to see the number of predictions putting the bottom of the All Ords in the 5400 range. Similarly the level of skill in fundamental analysis on this board is also generally very poor [something which i am somewhat knowledgable about].

So, I would take any prediction [technical or fundamental] as at best for entertainment value with the potential to inform you as to general goings on in the market.

 

[MichaelD]

Are we starting a Trading Tribe?

"Everyone gets what they want out of ASF"



(Doesn't quite have the same impact as the original, but a more profound statement on trading I have never read as Seykota's original quote.)

 

[Atomic5]

Atomic5,
Political analysis

US & EU markets were flat this morning ahead of the Fed.

However the US Fed just made his announcement (he is truly a god to the US people and now the world) 'to keep rates steady' which was expected, but the surprise was that he did not express his usual bias to tighten.

Markets reacted positively - all green to go. We have more steam.

 

[Atomic5]

Bit Harsh!
Just overlay the LT trend line with ST trend lines and it stands out like dog b*lls where Traders Activity is/has been ---- the Long Term trends are usually maintained -- long term investors are still maintaining their long term profit --- all thats going on is traders are pushing the SP up to a short term level --- it's your choice to participate in the short term move or not.
Cheers

Good point.
Though I wonder what a historical data analyst would find if comparing todays charts with historical charts, from say, before on-line trading. I read one guy who warned about going too far back in order to obtain a technical analysis for contemporary markets.

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

From my (90% long) perspective:

1. Easy come, easy go
2. Who cares - back to two months ago (wait for a three or five year setback to get a grasp on the fear)

If your still being "squeezed" or allowing yourself to be---in 3-5 yrs-- you should be trading.

3. Thank god, finally a shake-out to squeeze the over-leveraged

Who cares whats that got to do with anything. Like all those letchers waiting for those fat landlords to lose a motza in property.

4. Excellent bargains coming now from fearful sellers - BHP at $26.40 anyone?

Every trade on its merits.Short or long.

With fundamentals intact these pullbacks are only bad for the overleveraged or excessively greedy

As above

Tech ... if I may ask ... are you still entering trades on a daily basis on the method you revealed for public scrutiny.

T/T I presume you mean.
Its never been a daily basis.This is a longterm methodology which takes trades when funds are available and a stock is selected from those triggered.
Its rare to have 2 in a month. Often a few months between trades. Sells can and do take years.

Hint.

Testing a longterm method over a few months will not give you accurate records as it will only give you CLOSED positions many will still be open with profit at the time of closing testing so will not be recorded. Best to test over long periods and also view open equity at time of cutting off your testing.

That said, in regards to the thread [and others] there have been an overwhelming number of incorrect technical predictions on the direction of the All Ords on these boards since the correction.

Oh I see you want the figures presented hit the day after!!!!!

[although I don't know anything about it myself].

This lack of understanding and un educated comment just keeps coming.
What are your veiws on Heart Surgery

Similarly the level of skill in fundamental analysis on this board is also generally very poor [something which i am somewhat knowledgable about].

Open most posts in the Fundamental section of ASF and all you'll find is speculation about.
(1) Whens the next announcement.
(2) Are the facts presented in the last report accurate??? Bought about by falling prices not rising as expected.---but price SHOULD BE going up.
(3) Copious amounts of asking "Respected" posters ARE YOU STILL HOLDING----Translated below.
.
I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing pleeeeze give me some positive feed back as I'm losing badly!

So, I would take any prediction [technical or fundamental] as at best for entertainment value with the potential to inform you as to general goings on in the market.

And that is the amount of use those who are untrained technically or fundamentally will get out of BOTH forms of analysis.

A proficient practitioner in EITHER will recognise the points or points of Analysis in EITHER/BOTHforms of analysis worth consideration---if any.

 

[lesm]

Anybody who gets super emotional while stock trading or investing is just a bad trader/investor.

That said, in regards to the thread [and others] there have been an overwhelming number of incorrect technical predictions on the direction of the All Ords on these boards since the correction. I don't think its a reflection on the merits of technical analysis but rather on those applying it [although I don't know anything about it myself]. One can look at the threads to see the number of predictions putting the bottom of the All Ords in the 5400 range. Similarly the level of skill in fundamental analysis on this board is also generally very poor [something which i am somewhat knowledgable about].

So, I would take any prediction [technical or fundamental] as at best for entertainment value with the potential to inform you as to general goings on in the market.

Always need some light entertainment and a bemusing distraction.

A free population sample to study aspects of the psychology of market participants is thrown in as well.

 

[coyotte]

Doom my portfolio trading (well one of them is public record and has been for 4 yrs).
I dont track any of the three on a daily basis.They are so far in open equity its of little importance---

Coyotte

Dont hold BHP that was a out of the blue type what if.

Was not referring to the Company.


Whilst undoubtedly TechTrader2 has been successful and will probably continue to be so --- the bit I find strange is:

Your own publicly posted views on TA appears to be that the "Entry" is Secondary to the "Exit" ---- most I presume would agree with that.


Yet in TT2 --- Yeah I know its only an example, but you do seem to be following its basic rules atm --- you seem to go off in the opposite direction.

Detail is given to the ENTRY Setup.
Followed by a fair Initial Stop.
Then a wishy washy moving average EXIT.

In another recent post you state that with your Long Term Portfolio your Stops are @ 20% loss (presume from high)

Whilst on one hand you condemn MAs and Indicators as lagging -- here in the the most Vital part of the trade you recommend employing either a MA or some loss% picked out the blue.


One would hardly call this TA --- as I stated it's more BHP.


Cheers

 

[theasxgorilla]

One would hardly call this TA --- as i stated it's more BHP.

Can someone help elaborate BHP?

 

[coyotte]

Buy -- Hold -- Pray

Cheers