T/A lost the plot

[MichaelD]

-- thats when I began closing down long term positions --- was wrong it continued higher for a few days --

Interesting - noting the market being overheated and acting accordingly. (The "I can't believe the market went even higher today - this CAN'T go on for much longer" feeling.)

I have a couple of other questions which lead on from this - do you KNOW trading this way is more profitable than simply using a mechanical trailing stop or do you FEEL it is? If you KNOW, how do you know?

 

[coyotte]

No Michael
I don't know for every portfolio and for every situation --- but for most of the stocks I hold Long Term I would generally turn the portfolio over twice a year.

May be out the long term market for a couple of months -- usually buying back in during June and sell into the Xmas/ New Year rallies -- also gives me the chance to balance the portfolio and get ride of any deadwood.

But I presume it would be a lot to do with your attitude -- I've never viewed stocks as ownership, they are simply somewhere to park the cash.

I keep records of annual transactions (for tax) but have never bothered to compare these to a buy & hold situation, because it just wouldn't happen.

With the Sharemarket I'm a trader not a investor --- Property entirely different situation.

 

[coyotte]

For Medium Term Trend Trading it is definitely more profitable:

I demonstrated this several months ago but got howled down for using lagging indicators --- generally U can pick the lead up to the toping, thats when you start watching the stock closely. I treat the STOP as a last resort situation in case I miss the lead up.


Cheers

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Nothing WRONG with this style.

But Weinstein's, Gupppy's Trend Trading --- and most other Trending techniques can be vastly improved by introducing appropriate EXITS.

Surely you wouldn't stand by and watch 20% of profits evaporate on the grounds that the system told me it will recover!

Or bring in the the costs -- at the most a couple of 100 bucks at the risk of losing 1000s ----- or tax! -- as any good accountant will tell you

Hi Coyotte,

Agree with this if you are trading a set percentage of funds, with the majority of funds as long term holds.

Stick to the stocks you know and let the trade come to you, don't chase the price action, and set profit targets.

If your comfortable with your long positions through your fundamental research........why should you have a problem trading the pullbacks.

Trade the market as it is and has been for some time........and has panned out to be again, hopefully!

I'm sure anyone at it for a while can have some froth skimmed if the trend changes.............



Cheers

 

[MichaelD]

For Medium Term Trend Trading it is definitely more profitable:

I demonstrated this several months ago but got howled down for using lagging indicators --- generally U can pick the lead up to the toping, thats when you start watching the stock closely. I treat the STOP as a last resort situation in case I miss the lead up.

Very interesting, thanks for these insights.

I currently hold the view that Long Term Trend Following with a trailing stop is the most efficient way to engage the ASX, however for shorter time frames a different exit strategy works better. It would appear that we in fact share similar views in many ways.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake.

(1)Its pretty obvious some dont trade.
OR
(2)Some simply analyse
OR
(3)Some dont make consistent profit---anyone can have a winning trade.
OR
(4)Some have no idea about application of analysis---any form of analysis.
OR
(5)A combination of the above.

If they did they wouldnt be making points which clearly point to the above conclusions.
Dont get me wrong some here do consistently make profit and clearly they dont post rubbish.

Others just dont add to the board at all.No explaination,no example to support views just parrot fashion,from what they have read.They've never implemented anything with consistency into their trading.
Whats the value of the initial post from $$Magnet$$ ?? Forget this forget that
Ive been doing this for 13 yrs and your all on the wrongside of the trade.
Maybe so but whats the value to the forum in telling all that you've been on the right side 3 weeks after the event.

My post to Coyotte wasnt/isnt a challenge to him or anyone---its a serious suggestion.
You'd be suprised what you'd learn if you posted your (or anyone did) trading out in the open. Let me tell you it keeps you honest. Ive had 100s of eyes dissect T/T over 4 yrs each and everyone who have given constructive input or constructive critisism have added to my and many others knowledge.
We/I question what we do and how we do it.

Ive had my fair share of run ins with GANN practitioners.They work like many other on Prove--disprove analysis. But AS YET Ive not seen practical application of the method.Calling 5 or 6 possible dates or points of interest are a far cry from practical application. Show me how you apply the 5 or 6 dates into your trading-----just do it on 6 stocks or 6 times on an index.
That would be adding to the forum. Not to prove you can trade but that the analysis is worth the time and effort to learn and can be APPLIED in realtime trading.

My view while un-palatable to some generates debate. Hey I learn a lot from these threads---am I the only one?

Tech,
Understood.

I learn a lot just conversing with the many on here. But I will not tolerate demands to prove myself nor should anyone else. I have learned some stuff from Coyotte because he is not a typical American style trader - pure Guppy from what I gather, which I am not. I would hate to see others afraid to post when I would like to read their stuff, validated or not. A stiff question or two sorts the bogus from the real.
Feel free to continue posting.
Snake

 

[tech/a]

But I will not tolerate demands to prove myself nor should anyone else.

Its not a demand. Its a serious suggestion.

ASX In reply to your comments.
Well if that is/was the case then where better to learn DISCIPLINE

Here is why people dont do it ---The real reasons.

(1) Fear of humiliation.
(2) They dont have a trading methodology.
(3) They have no idea how to apply their analysis in a consistently profitable way Fundamental/Technical/Astronomy/Dart throwing.---and they KNOW IT.

If one
(1) Posted their method to be demonstrated,these are the rules I will be using.
(2) If they have been doing it for years-----These are the results I have been getting and what I expect.

From here the trading would be a learning exercise---a very worthwhile one for BOTH the poster and those watching/and or commmenting.

You may even get posters who say.

"Look this is a trading Idea Ive been using ,my trading has been profitable but far from consistent (Now many will see thats the truth!),so I'll post things up and see if there is somethings that will help my way of trading."

Constructive critisism is an excellent way to improve methods.

 

[wayneL]

Here is why people dont do it ---The real reasons.

(1) Fear of humiliation.
(2) They dont have a trading methodology.
(3) They have no idea how to apply their analysis in a consistently profitable way Fundamental/Technical/Astronomy/Dart throwing.---and they KNOW IT.

That's drawing a long bow tech.

Those could be the reasons, but also they may not.

Posting trades is one hell of a commitment

To have integrity:
1/ All trades must be posted in real time
2/ It must be done over a period of time to show periods of both drawdown and rapid gain and for these to balance out within the broad context of the method.

Furthermore:
3/ The poster must be willing to answer questions and perhaps justify/defend the logic
4/ The poster may be subject to attack of his or her method as we have seen.
5/ Shorter term traders will have many more trades to log exacerbating the above

For these reasons I think your comments are unfair and inaccurate.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Its not a demand. Its a serious suggestion.

ASX In reply to your comments.
Well if that is/was the case then where better to learn DISCIPLINE

Here is why people dont do it ---The real reasons.

(1) Fear of humiliation.
(2) They dont have a trading methodology.
(3) They have no idea how to apply their analysis in a consistently profitable way Fundamental/Technical/Astronomy/Dart throwing.---and they KNOW IT.

If one
(1) Posted their method to be demonstrated,these are the rules I will be using.
(2) If they have been doing it for years-----These are the results I have been getting and what I expect.

From here the trading would be a learning exercise---a very worthwhile one for BOTH the poster and those watching/and or commmenting.

You may even get posters who say.

"Look this is a trading Idea Ive been using ,my trading has been profitable but far from consistent (Now many will see thats the truth!),so I'll post things up and see if there is somethings that will help my way of trading."

Constructive critisism is an excellent way to improve methods.

Tech/A

The way you come across sometimes can seem like your attacking, but underneath that I see you just making a illogical comment based on what you know and your 13 years of experience.

I think no one in these forms has the right to ask someone to prove their trades with out proving there own first.

That is a very personal thing to ask of any business Manager, show me your internal company files, no I change that it's damn rude! Most Managers would smack u for asking that(unless you work for the ATO!!)

Maybe try to come across a little nicer in your replies and wires won't get crossed!

Members I have Learnt a lot already from Tech/a, Magdoran, Motorway and wave picker.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Its not a demand. Its a serious suggestion.

I know...and I know you post your results...and lets face it, using a mechanical system that has been back tested on an extensive data sample, the only thing that will put egg on your face is market conditions vastly different from anything encountered in your data sample...most likely a catastrophic event...and many others will be affected too, so you'll save some face.

You've got kahoonas I'll give you that.

Well if that is/was the case then where better to learn DISCIPLINE

If you want to manage other people's money or run an advisory service, then you might find it beneficial to test the waters by posting your trades on a forum first and seeing how you weather the storm. I know plenty of successful individual traders who don't bother with this.

Here is why people dont do it ---The real reasons.

(1) Fear of humiliation.

Trading is hard enough...why make it harder? Do you seek the opposite of humiliation?

(2) They dont have a trading methodology.

Perhaps, or maybe they just don't care to argue it with people who believe too strongly in T/A or Gann or Elliott or F/A or Astrology or <insert next fad here>.

(3) They have no idea how to apply their analysis in a consistently profitable way Fundamental/Technical/Astronomy/Dart throwing.---and they KNOW IT.

You got me there.

If one
(1) Posted their method to be demonstrated,these are the rules I will be using.
(2) If they have been doing it for years-----These are the results I have been getting and what I expect.

From here the trading would be a learning exercise---a very worthwhile one for BOTH the poster and those watching/and or commmenting.

You may even get posters who say.

"Look this is a trading Idea Ive been using ,my trading has been profitable but far from consistent (Now many will see thats the truth!),so I'll post things up and see if there is somethings that will help my way of trading."

My suspicion is that you'll get a whole lot of naysayers telling you why your method doesn't work, or why you got lucky in this market.

My philosophy is to protect your psychology, secondary only to protecting trading equity. If you are a DISCRETIONARY trader and you make a discretionary decision, and prior to making that decision you went to a forum and asked every man and his dog what they thought...how can you know whether they assisted or adversely affected your decision making...SINCE it's possible to lose money and still have done the right thing??? You see my point??? It's gets tough to discern between the purity of your own trading decisions and the effect of bias introduced through arguing with people on a forum...who could be very smart when it comes to their methods of analysis but be utter numpties when it comes to yours.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Maybe try to come across a little nicer in your replies and wires won't get crossed!

Trade_It, haven't you heard? Nice guys finish last

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Trade_It, haven't you heard? Nice guys finish last

Ha Ha Ha so true at times.

But in the end karma catches up!

 

[motorway]

For Medium Term Trend Trading it is definitely more profitable:

I demonstrated this several months ago but got howled down for using lagging indicators --- generally U can pick the lead up to the toping, thats when you start watching the stock closely. I treat the STOP as a last resort situation in case I miss the lead up.

Cheers

Very Very Wyckoff except for the lagging indicators

Wyckoff Exit Strategies

In Order of Degree of Desirability


EXIT STRATEGY # 1

Take profits, eliminate positions, exit the market upon an ending action in the price objective zone . You cover your position when you see a climax in a price objective zone

EXIT STRATEGY # 2

Exit the market when there is repeated evidence that the current trend will not continue, and indeed may reverse.
Monitor the market, the group and the stock for price and volume clues that warn of trend exhaustion.

EXIT STRATEGY # 3:

Exit the market automatically upon the hitting of a trailing stop (loss) order…

For Wyckoff the placement of the trailing stop is “catastrophic loss insurance with a large deductible.” The large deductible being the distance between the current price and the stop price.

If the trader sees a hazard developing he should opt to avoid the hazard and protect the position through active intervention rather than passively waiting for the distant stop to be hit. Far away trailing stops during an outgoing trend allow the trader to ride the winners without the risk of needlessly being taken out.

You should reevaluate a position and consider exiting when:

There is loss of relative strength compared to the market and a rival stock within a group

( Relative Strength as well as trend lines goes back to Wyckoff )

Ascending bottoms in a trading range (short sale outstanding).

Descending tops in a trading range (long position outstanding).

( Pruden emphasizes these two with his CUSP Theory )

Sign of weakness (SOW) especially the # 1 spring.

( Standout Volume in a wide range bar that closes at the low )

Overbought condition or against the upward channel line ( Where most mkts were ? )

Thrusts shortening ( Each rally making less progress )

½ way point exceeded on a rally in a downtrend, or a reaction in an up trend

Failure of support / resistance.

Tools....

Price spread and volume Bar charts ( effort Vs Result )

Trend lines and support , resistance lines

The Nine Buying and Selling Tests

Comparative Strength and Weakness ( esp the % movements in the last rally or reaction )

Point and Figure (cause and effect ----> Distribution and accumulation)

To determine if this exiting on warnings not waiting for breaks is correct.
What must be considered is what the $$ freed up are then applied too.
As well as the performance of the position then exited..

You might leave a more mature trend and Instead of grinding out the last %
apply the money now to a more vigorous youthful trend..

The Opportunity Cost/Return


motorway

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Tech,

Here is why people dont do it ---The real reasons.

(1) Fear of humiliation.
(2) They dont have a trading methodology.
(3) They have no idea how to apply their analysis in a consistently profitable way Fundamental/Technical/Astronomy/Dart throwing.---and they KNOW IT.

No it is the fear of being cut to pieces by people who don't trade for a living for some. Others see no value in doing it - simple. Wayne gave some pertinent facts.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

WOR:

"Jim Berg's ATR system" trigger was on Fri 16/3 --- Entry was on Mon 19/3 below 27.36, was @ 27.15

Trade is still a System goer -- but used a traders discretion @ the 75% level --- can always re-enter.

If U want a chart can post it later tonight --- with analysis.

Cheers

thanks Coyotte.
Could you post a chart?

 

[coyotte]

Later tonite if u want it Snake.

Will be tied up till then.


Cheers

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Later tonite if u want it Snake.

Will be tied up till then.


Cheers

No worries any time is fine.

 

[coyotte]

WOR -- CHART:

The first Graph is simply the area I was SHORT twice based on the GAP and ASX allowable short percentages -- was lucky to get out near the close on the 14th.

The second graph is the LONG using the ATR system I was babbling on about.
It's a plug in for MetaStock which you must purchase:

Rules of the method are basic -- suitable for short or med/long term.

1: Stock in UP trend.

2: Stock must have made a recent low with the systems RSI setting.

3: Has now risen and CLOSED above the lower red line (trigger).

4: Initial STOP is the recent LOW (no trade if >10%).

5: Exit for short term is a close above the upper green --if > than 10% of entry.

6: Exit for all terms is two consecutive closes below the the lower red line.

I've changed the rules I follow with it a bit --- but have been testing it as a unrelated method to pattern trading.

You can see that there was a trigger just a few days before the one I had used ---- under the rules this is still a current trade -- I'm waiting to see if comes down to the tread line for a new entry -- although that GAP still seems to be of concern to me.

In the "potential breakout thread" you will find a post there about FLX -- though selected for a different reason -- this system is also on that chart and has the trigger --- FLX hasn't looked back since --- so maybe it has potential as another unrelated trading method.

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Coyotte.

Just to recap this is a current long trade in WOR based upon the above rules.
From what I see its about 5 days old.
Being a $26 stock are you trading X number on CFD's or just a straight trade?

Any stop?
Parcel sizing?
Exit is the short term trendline break?---or.

FLX is that going or about to go---would like to follow if it does.

 

[tech/a]

Michael

In reply to.

Suddenly, you don't need to backtest any more. Suddenly, you don't need to paper trade any more. And now, you seem to have returned to where you started before you became profitable - the analysis before all.

Is it self-sabotage? Is there a weakness in your psychology? What has happened to you in the last 6 months, Tech/A? You aren't the same as when I started corresponding with you.

Firstly nothing has changed,other than the spectrum of discussion.

(1) Systems trading all written before and now is exactly as it always has been,Systems trading is distinct from discretionary trading in that it is a set of rules applied over and over to return a positive expectancy,AND a trading blueprint which keeps you alerted to market conditions outside of those tested. Its inflexable without change and designed to be just that. Great way to trade and I do trade that way.--you too have reaped the benifits. Ive not altered my veiws.

(2) Discretionary trading is rules applied with flexability,beyond,in my and most cases the capacity to code and test. You can have and do have unlimited flexabiliy,to combine analysis techniques,change analysis on a dime (In our case 10c piece),add to positions,leverage instantly,remove that leverage instantly,pyramid positions instantly,take some profit instantly,let some run,take it all off,run with the dynamics of the market,terribly difficult if not impossible to code and test. Its a different form of trading.
Its NOT the analysis its HOW ITS APPLIED which will result in best return--or best expectancy. Sure you can walk forward test and I have and am doing so. My findings are profit beyond that of systems trading ---in my case from the application of the analysis I use.

All analysis wether set in specific Systems coding or used in Discretionary trading is subject to PROVE/DISPROVE.
Wether its Yogi and the likes combining Time, Price,or others who include Pattern and volume.EVERY form of analysis is governed by Prove disprove and application of the analysis.
If one of Yogi's time points is disproven simply move to the next.If one of Elliots wave counts is disproven move to the next,if an RSI over sold is disproven then move to the next. If a Fundamental valuation is disproved or altered due to X then move to the next---AND APPLY that analysis to the trade/s.

Nothings changed--and nothing will change,perhaps though the level of understanding from proponents of ALL forms of analysis.