T/A lost the plot

tech/a · 22 March 2007

coyotte said:
Was not referring to the Company.

Whilst undoubtedly TechTrader2 has been successful and will probably continue to be so --- the bit I find strange is:

Your own publicly posted views on TA appears to be that the "Entry" is Secondary to the "Exit" ---- most I presume would agree with that.

This statement is relative to SYSTEMS design. Profit comes from LONGTERM systems from the ability to gain high R/R ratios. This is achieved by finding the BALANCE between staying in a trade long enough to gain MULTIPLE R/R (Reward to Risk Ratios) and not giving back to much during the process.
The 180day M/A of the low is the best I have found so far.I have tried many others--ATR included.Remember BALANCE and SYSTEM design.

Yet in TT2 --- Yeah I know its only an example, but you do seem to be following its basic rules atm --- you seem to go off in the opposite direction.

Not following here the SYSTEM as discussed on Reef,doesnt and hasnt changed.

Detail is given to the ENTRY Setup.
Followed by a fair Initial Stop.
Then a wishy washy moving average EXIT.

Again not following its as above and never altered.

In another recent post you state that with your Long Term Portfolio your Stops are @ 20% loss (presume from high)

Coyotte you really do need to read and understand my posts god knows I try and make them as clear as possible.
So AGAIN The system (infact any system will if designed properly) have a set of NUMBERS returned during testing. In particular montecarlo testing will give Maximum and Minimum results (Numbers) from the average mean over the test period/systems design and universe chosen.
It is from THESE numbers we know in TechTrader that the MAXIMUM--- Peak to Valley drawdown of over 20000 portfolio tests is approx 20% Infact I think its 23% (without checking) if Techtrader EVER trades with a maximum peak to Valley drawdown of over the maximum % returned in testing I personally will be stopping trading the system---I'll exit ALL positions.

What will be happening is that the system will be entering trading territory not seen during testing---you would be trading BLIND.
This is completely seperate to the mechanics of day to day trading and ONE of the main reasons you test and have NUMBERS to go by.

Whilst on one hand you condemn MAs and Indicators as lagging -- here in the the most Vital part of the trade you recommend employing either a MA or some loss% picked out the blue.

The above should make thing crystal clear to you.
My comments on M/A's for discretionary trading are as you state---bloody useless---to slow.Most indicators are the same. Your not looking at APPLICATION of technical indicators and most (Possibly not yourself) have no idea of correct APPLICATION (When and how to apply an indicator into their trading.) frustration abounds with INCORRECT use,POOR application and incorrect application relative to a vast number of variables. Only experience can and will reward those who spend the time to learn---profit.

One would hardly call this TA --- as I stated it's more BHP.

This statement coyotte my friend only CONFIRMS my point.
Read the above you just DONT SEE IT
Its a long long road---Ive been 12 yrs on it and STILL honing skills learnt from experience.

nizar · 22 March 2007

tech/a said:
This statement is relative to SYSTEMS design. Profit comes from LONGTERM systems from the ability to gain high R/R ratios. This is achieved by finding the BALANCE between staying in a trade long enough to gain MULTIPLE R/R (Reward to Risk Ratios) and not giving back to much during the process.
The 180day M/A of the low is the best I have found so far.I have tried many others--ATR included.Remember BALANCE and SYSTEM design.

Not following here the SYSTEM as discussed on Reef,doesnt and hasnt changed.

Again not following its as above and never altered.

Coyotte you really do need to read and understand my posts god knows I try and make them as clear as possible.
So AGAIN The system (infact any system will if designed properly) have a set of NUMBERS returned during testing. In particular montecarlo testing will give Maximum and Minimum results (Numbers) from the average mean over the test period/systems design and universe chosen.
It is from THESE numbers we know in TechTrader that the MAXIMUM--- Peak to Valley drawdown of over 20000 portfolio tests is approx 20% Infact I think its 23% (without checking) if Techtrader EVER trades with a maximum peak to Valley drawdown of over the maximum % returned in testing I personally will be stopping trading the system---I'll exit ALL positions.

What will be happening is that the system will be entering trading territory not seen during testing---you would be trading BLIND.
This is completely seperate to the mechanics of day to day trading and ONE of the main reasons you test and have NUMBERS to go by.

The above should make thing crystal clear to you.
My comments on M/A's for discretionary trading are as you state---bloody useless---to slow.Most indicators are the same. Your not looking at APPLICATION of technical indicators and most (Possibly not yourself) have no idea of correct APPLICATION (When and how to apply an indicator into their trading.) frustration abounds with INCORRECT use,POOR application and incorrect application relative to a vast number of variables. Only experience can and will reward those who spend the time to learn---profit.

This statement coyotte my friend only CONFIRMS my point.
Read the above you just DONT SEE IT
Its a long long road---Ive been 12 yrs on it and STILL honing skills learnt from experience.

One of your best posts tech.
Thanks for sharing.

Just a question: do you look at factors other than drawdown when deciding to exit all positions after concluding that whatever it is that happened is a sign of new trading conditions that were not included in systems testing and design?
(Im assuming if ANYthing falls outside the montecarlo max and mins you would exit, not only drawdown)?
eg. How about if maximum string of losses, as determined by the montercarlo analysis, was, say, 13, and you had 15?
Or how about if biggest loss was $$ (some dollar value) and your system while trading it had a loss >$$ ?

theasxgorilla · 22 March 2007

tech/a said:
MAXIMUM--- Peak to Valley drawdown of over 20000 portfolio tests is approx 20% Infact I think its 23% (without checking) if Techtrader EVER trades with a maximum peak to Valley drawdown of over the maximum % returned in testing I personally will be stopping trading the system---I'll exit ALL positions.

So in summary, with the system you describe, in this market, you sit tight until one of several things happens?

1. OE draws down > 23% you close ALL open positions
2. If any open position gets stopped out by the 180 EMA you will exit ONLY that position

The ASX Gorilla.

tech/a · 22 March 2007

theasxgorilla said:
So in summary, with the system you describe, in this market, you sit tight until one of several things happens?

1. OE draws down > 23% you close ALL open positions
2. If any open position gets stopped out by the 180 EMA you will exit ONLY that position

The ASX Gorilla.

Yes OR
Any open position hits its INITIAL STOP---there are no trailing stops.

All explained in the 100s of pages dedicated to Techtrader on Reefcap.

coyotte · 22 March 2007

coyotte said:
One would hardly call this TA --- as I stated it's more BHP.

tech/a said:
This statement coyotte my friend only CONFIRMS my point.
Read the above you just DONT SEE IT
Its a long long road---Ive been 12 yrs on it and STILL honing skills learnt from experience.

Yes I DO see it Tech ---- long term you never really got beyond Weinstein --- Probably even worse -- at least his Entry is around a consolidation breakout (stage 2)

Cheers

lesm · 22 March 2007

tech/a said:
My comments on M/A's for discretionary trading are as you state---bloody useless---to slow.Most indicators are the same. Your not looking at APPLICATION of technical indicators and most (Possibly not yourself) have no idea of correct APPLICATION (When and how to apply an indicator into their trading.) frustration abounds with INCORRECT use,POOR application and incorrect application relative to a vast number of variables. Only experience can and will reward those who spend the time to learn---profit.

Possibly the best point in the post.

Even for those using F/A as the basis for their trading, company financial reports tend to lag the market rather than lead it.

tech/a · 22 March 2007

coyotte said:
One would hardly call this TA --- as I stated it's more BHP.

tech/a said:
This statement coyotte my friend only CONFIRMS my point.
Read the above you just DONT SEE IT
Its a long long road---Ive been 12 yrs on it and STILL honing skills learnt from experience.

coyotte said:
Yes I DO see it Tech ---- long term you never really got beyond Weinstein --- Probably even worse -- at least his Entry is around a consolidation breakout (stage 2)

Cheers

Oh God.
No wonder I'm bored.
Lookforward to your next 4 yrs results published for public scrutiny.
Enjoy your trading.
I see you have atleast mastered the Aussi pastime of "Cutting down tall poppies"---well even that needs a little work---whats Guppies take on that?
He's had his fair share!

Even for those using F/A as the basis for their trading, company financial reports tend to lag the market rather than lead it.

So true.
Plus then you need a confluence of opinion.
Something that is seen as.(not by me but most Ive seen commenting on fundamental data)
(1) Price goes down------Already factored into the market before announcement.
(2)Price does basically nothing.----Everyones got their numbers wrong---cant they value a company properly.
(3)Price goes up then down just as fast----profit takers---wow fundies take short term profits!

tech

ducati916 · 22 March 2007

lesm said:
Even for those using F/A as the basis for their trading, company financial reports tend to lag the market rather than lead it.

Incorrect-omundo!

Fundamentals tend to be early, rather than late.

jog on
d998

tech/a · 22 March 2007

ducati916 said:
Incorrect-omundo!

Fundamentals tend to be early, rather than late.

jog on
d998

As evidenced with
CALL
FORD
CTT
CQB
SGTL
EVCI
CHDW

lesm · 22 March 2007

ducati916 said:
Incorrect-omundo!

Fundamentals tend to be early, rather than late.

jog on
d998

Hi Duc,

I beg to differ.

Looks like you took the bait well on that one. Will certainly go fishing this weekend.

I recall that you have actually made a similar statement yourself. Have you changed your mind or view?

Cheers,
Les.

Frank D · 22 March 2007

People need to simplify their trading analysis and just look at the price action, it will make much more sense than trying to think too much.....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=137068#post137068

Regards,
Frank Dilernia

tech/a · 22 March 2007

Frank D said:
People need to simplify their trading analysis and just look at the price action, it will make much more sense than trying to think too much.....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=137068#post137068

Regards,
Frank Dilernia

Few words big impact.

MichaelD · 22 March 2007

theasxgorilla said:
1. OE draws down > 23% you close ALL open positions

tech/a said:
Yes

Tech,

Did you ever actually determine the maximum Open Equity drawdown % for Tech Trader?

$$Magnet$$ · 22 March 2007

Frank D said:
People need to simplify their trading analysis and just look at the price action, it will make much more sense than trying to think too much.....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=137068#post137068

Regards,
Frank Dilernia

Very bemused by all the so called predictions & postings since the correction. There I was waiting patiently to accumulate while majority of you were expecting the market to crash. Been trading 13 yrs so I know how some new traders may be confused by the volatility and their T/A. Here's a tip. Follow price action. Forget about EW or predictive analysis. Decide if you are a medium term or shorter term holder and use the appropriate charts for your trading. Keep it simple.

Happy trading.

I would be happy if the market at least make a a new or even a double top and pullback towards the later part of the yr.

MichaelD · 22 March 2007

coyotte said:
---- long term you never really got beyond Weinstein --- Probably even worse -- at least his Entry is around a consolidation breakout (stage 2)

Got to admit I'm confused by this point.

Exactly what is wrong about not going beyond Weinstein for a long term trend following system? Long term trend following hasn't changed over the years. Livermore did it before Weinstein.

Three pretty compelling arguments FOR the TechTrader system are;
1. It's got a positive expectancy
2. The entry is better than random entry
3. It beats buy and hold

That's all you need a system (any system over any time frame) to do.

It's Snake Pliskin · 22 March 2007

MichaelD said:
Got to admit I'm confused by this point.

Exactly what is wrong about not going beyond Weinstein for a long term trend following system? Long term trend following hasn't changed over the years. Livermore did it before Weinstein.

Three pretty compelling arguments FOR the TechTrader system are;
1. It's got a positive expectancy
2. The entry is better than random entry
3. It beats buy and hold

That's all you need a system (any system over any time frame) to do.

I agree Michael,
Weinstein's work is quite ok for those wanting to set up end of day systems and still want to work full-time, or the fundamentalist who wants some TA education.

Thoug in the TA world he is only a feather weight.

It's Snake Pliskin · 22 March 2007

$$Magnet$$ said:
Very bemused by all the so called predictions & postings since the correction. There I was waiting patiently to accumulate while majority of you were expecting the market to crash. Been trading 13 yrs so I know how some new traders may be confused by the volatility and their T/A. Here's a tip. Follow price action. Forget about EW or predictive analysis. Decide if you are a medium term or shorter term holder and use the appropriate charts for your trading. Keep it simple.

Happy trading.

I would be happy if the market at least make a a new or even a double top and pullback towards the later part of the yr.

I guess we can all learn from YOU. Feel free to notch up some posts and educate.

It's Snake Pliskin · 22 March 2007

lesm said:
Possibly the best point in the post.

Even for those using F/A as the basis for their trading, company financial reports tend to lag the market rather than lead it.

Lagging reports! Simply brilliant Lesm. Now we have the fundamental equivalent to the MACD

Kauri · 22 March 2007

$$Magnet$$ said:
Very bemused by all the so called predictions & postings since the correction.

$$Magnet$$ said:
I would be happy if the market at least make a a new or even a double top and pullback towards the later part of the yr.

Extremely bemused..

tech/a · 22 March 2007

Kauri said:
Extremely bemused..

Its price action thats OK.

$$Magnet$$

A post pre correction would give more weight. First post reeks of a past poster cranking up again.No added value just how clever you are.

Go back to Frankies post and look at 9th Feb Post.
Look at the 6063 line CLEARLY on the chart on the 9th Feb at aound the date area that prices fell from 6064.
Pretty damed good analysis way way before time.

T/A lost the plot

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

nizar

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