SYN - Synergia Energy

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Hi Stretchie,

Given the rules of ASF, I don't want to quote a figure. Fair enough as it is difficult to predict the market. That said, it also depends upon 3 things:

1. What is the size of the potential drilling prospect? In this case, OEX has large targets. This can be partly valued by fundamentals (including the oil price at the time) but also the emotional factor - the higher the potential target, the greater the greed stampede! Check the size of the target and then work out if you think it is on the larger size...To me, these are large targets.

2. What is the state of the general market? Will it encourage greed or fear? A strengthening market will help.

3. Are the broking houses on board, and to a lesser extent the chat rooms. I believe Hartleys are supporting OEX so that will help encourage a SP run. The size of the potential targets should get the chat room punters on board as well (PS...I'm here LOL)

I'll leave it at that. I have already assessed these questions using my own (often flawed) analysis and decided OEX is well woth an investment. Each to their own...

Cheers,
BESBS

 

[Dreadweave]

Re: OEX - Oilex

The recent capital raising has scared a few people off, I know of one person who sold off as soon as he heard there will be capital raising, But i held on and it seems to be paying off.

Midday today OEX is trading at .33 and looking good.

I hold at .29 and happy to hold.

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

While I can understand some of the frustration from an immediate perspective, I'm reasonable content with the outcome as a BESBS Play.

1. Drilling costs money. This deal allows OEX to almost double available cash along the line.
2. We don't have to endure a prolonged SPP that caps the price for weeks.
3. Often the SPP comes out once the SP run starts. This kills the run. This placement does not impact as much as we haven't started the pre-drill hype as yet.
4. Hartleys benefit...true. However they don't have recommendations on OEX for small numbers. With big institutions on board, they can help to build SP momentum.
5. We still have potential targets of 190mmbl and 90mmbl on offer - that hasn't changed. With the recent oil prices, this looks even more appealing.

Holding OEX and looking to accumulate on weakness

For the reasons I stated earlier, I was happy with the placement and I think that we are now about to reap the benefits of the deal.


Still accumulating OEX (holding at ave. 29c)

 

[Alporfavor]

Re: OEX - Oilex

I was expecting a bit of a drop in SP too, and was hoping to grab a few more on the cheap, but happy with the nice rise today.

Has the price held up because of the imminence of the drilling?

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Looks like OEX is starting to build as a BESBS play. Since the $10m placement to Hartleys, we have seen a SP of 28c become 35c in the last week. Still waiting for definite dates on drilling but the momentum is building.
As I said below:

"My experience has been that once a drilling is touted and it is a big potential target, emotion takes over many investors/traders and fundamentals such as dilution become less important."

Emotion building regardless of fundamentals IMHO (although OEX is now cashed up and looking OK)

Holding OEX at 29c

 

[stretchie]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Alright finally we have some movement upwards! I sold down half my OEX holding as I was getting a little impatient at 32c and 33c, but will hold the rest now (avg 0.293) and see what happens.

Closed on the high and the chart is now looking good. (can't post it yet)

--

Oilex Ltd the operator of JPDA 06-103 has advised that the semi-submersible drilling rig the “Songa Mercur” was released to Oilex on 11 November 2009, and is now under tow from Dampier to the first well location. The rig is contracted to drill two wells in JPDA 06-103 (with an option of one additional well), and drilling is expected to start in late November 2009.
As previously announced Pan Pacific Petroleum (JPDA 06-103) Pty Ltd (“PPPJ”) has agreed to acquire 15% Participating Interest in the JPDA 06-103 Production Sharing Contract comprising 5% interest from each of Global, Bharat and GSPC.

Under the terms of the Farmout Agreements, PPPJ will contribute to the costs of the first two commitment wells which will target the Loré and Lolotoe prospects. The Farmouts are subject to approval by the Designated Authority, the Autoridade Nacional do Petróleo of Timor Leste (“ANP”), which will be requested as soon as PPPJ’s earning obligations have been completed.
JPDA06-103 is located within the northern Bonaparte Basin, offshore northwest Australia, within the joint petroleum development area (the “JPDA”) issued pursuant to the Timor Sea Treaty between Timor-Leste and Australia. The contract area is adjacent to several existing oil fields such as Laminaria and Corallina and the recent Kitan discovery and prospects similar to this successful oil play are believed to exist in JPDA 06-103.
Upon completion of PPPJ’s farmin obligations and subject to ANP approval the participating interests will be;

Pan Pacific Petroleum (JPDA 06-103) Pty Ltd 15%
Oilex (JPDA 06-103) Ltd (Operator) 10%
Global Energy Inc 20%
GSPC (JPDA) Ltd 20%
Bharat PetroResources JPDA Limited 20%
Japan Energy E&P JPDA Pty Ltd 15%

--

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Time to be getting on board OEX if it is going to run pre-spud.

* Rig on way to site
* 195mmbl and 90 mmbl potential targets
* Free carried
* Drilling expected to start by late November
* Hartleys involved

There are no guarantees in this game but many of the usual triggers for some BESBS gains are present. I'll be holding for the above reasons.


Holding OEX at 29c

 

[swm79]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Time to be getting on board OEX if it is going to run pre-spud.

* Rig on way to site
* 195mmbl and 90 mmbl potential targets
* Free carried
* Drilling expected to start by late November
* Hartleys involved

There are no guarantees in this game but many of the usual triggers for some BESBS gains are present. I'll be holding for the above reasons.


Holding OEX at 29c

damn it! i thought MEO would be done before this!

if MEO leaves me high and dry i'll be EXTREMELY annoyed!

Good luck BESBS

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

G'day Swm,

Yes, as I said yesterday,

Time to be getting on board OEX if it is going to run pre-spud.

* Rig on way to site
* 195mmbl and 90 mmbl potential targets
* Free carried
* Drilling expected to start by late November
* Hartleys involved

Looks like it was a good call - OEX moved out to 38c at the close. Maybe tomorrow we could get some profit taking but at this stage, why would you do that now? I suspect that OEX shall hold and then continue to move for the above reasons providing that we do not get any negative global news.

Holding OEX at 29c

 

[DVEOUS]

Re: OEX - Oilex

I bought in at 29.5, 6 weeks ago, and very happy with the result so far.

It would be reasonable to expect the SP to move higher again, on the announcement that the drilling rig has arrived on site. One step closer.

I was going to bail at 39.5c, to make an even 10c/share, but after seeing the recent run, I am beginning to wonder if this would be too premature?

Has anyone done any number crunching, or tea leaf gazing, to figure where this pre-spud run might end up?

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

G'day DVEOUS.

In this market, why bother?
I shall be simply trying to read the signs of the SP journey and play the cards as they fall. In this market, it will depend on so many factors (many variable) that I'd work on the road markers:

1. drilling getting closer (hovered around the high 20s)
2. Early Nov...we all new an announcement was imminent (Traders got in - SP up to 32c approx.)
3. Announcement that Rig moving...now pushing high 30c.

To come (assuming no problems):

4. Announcement confirms rig on site (hopefully more traders in). Given current interest from the market, I'd like 40c as a platform. However it depends how this is marketed and promoted by bigger broking firms that are linked to OEX. That is a wildcard here and a crucial point.

5. Rig set to drill. Might have a few nervous lads jump off straight away but SP should strengthen as the drill bit turns. There are plenty of opportunities for early good news so you can hold this one for a while down the hole. If it weakens further in the first few days of drilling, I'll abandon ship as it suggests that the market is not into risk on this drill. If the SP holds and grows on the way down the well, I'll wait until later before deciding.

IMHO, This one will be influenced much more by market sentiment and large broking houses than by TA and FA. Go OEX!


Holding OEX at 29c

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

G'day all.

OEX has now made a good start for a BESBS play but I think that the next chapter of the action is about to begin. All the key ingredients are nearly set.

* Rig on way to site. Can't be too far away. A week out at worst. That is not long to get set. The recent large buyers signal this. Interesting that a large seller that was set at 38.5c has now disappeared. Not surprised - why sell now when action is so close??? Surely, at worst, now worth a watch and see at this point.

* 195mmbl and 90 mmbl potential targets. These are significant targets. The potential upside is huge if OEX hit the black gold. Punters like a potential high reward for risk in this game. I believe that these potential targets offer this in OEX.

* Free carried...expenses are covered for the drillings.

* Drilling expected to start by late November. This is very close. Traders don't have to leave their cash sitting for long in order to have a reasonable chance at a late pre-spud run. As stocks like MMR have shown, there are still loads of $$$ around for some oil & gas plays.

* Hartleys involved (from what I remember). It never hurts to have groups like this supporting the stock and pushing much higher valuations.

* Plenty of opportunities to get early positive signs on the way down the hole.

Now that the POO is lifting, the potential value increases.
Add all these ingredients into the mix and I believe that OEX has more to run.

Remember though, it is simply my thoughts and time might well prove me wrong. DYOR.

Cheers,
G


Holding OEX at 29c

 

[leedleed45]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Spot on BESBS, I agree with everything you said! In addition, there are two wells so if the first one turns out to be a dud there is still the second.

IMO I believe that with each announcement regarding drilling we will see some sort of movement in the SP! Trading volumes appear to be low as I suspect everyone is sitting back and waiting for more news since it is so close to drilling.

Holding OEX at 0.29 and happy to hold for the time being!

Thats my

 

[stretchie]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Can anyone think of a reason for the weakness today? A few nervous nellies jumping ship ?

The oil price has been bolstered in the last few days so it isn't the POO. Maybe a few people jumping off the perceived risky shares lately, or there's a bit of downward momentum in the SP after it topped at 38c...

 

[stretchie]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Ahh of course, it was people jumping off before the wave of selling from people who got their shares at 23c. Twenty million new shares also dilutes things a little.

Not much else has changed though, still holding half my original purchase at avg $0.293. Waiting not so patiently for the drill rig to arrive.

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

20 November, 2009

Company Announcements Office

OILEX SPUDS FIRST TIMOR SEA WELL

Oilex Ltd advises that the Loré-1 well, the first well of a 2 well program in
the Timor Sea contract area JPDA 06-103, was spudded at 13:15 hours (WST) on 20
November 2009.

The Loré-1 well is targeting a prospect with mean prospective oil resources of
195 million barrels (100% basis). The planned total depth of the well is
approximately 3,670 metres and is anticipated to be completed by late December
2009.

The "Songa Mercur" drilling rig arrived on location in JPDA 06-103 on 18
November and laid anchors ahead of schedule after mobilising from Dampier. The
rig is contracted to drill two wells in JPDA 06-103 (with an option of one
additional well). After drilling the Loré-1 well the rig will drill the Lolotoe
prospect which is targeting mean prospective oil resources of 90 million
barrels respectively (100% basis).

JPDA 06-103 is a highly prospective offshore oil exploration block and has the
potential to host significant oil reserves. It is located near to a number of
existing producing fields as well as Eni's recent Kitan oil discovery currently
under development.

Oilex is the Operator of the JPDA 06-103 Joint Venture. The participating
interests are:

Joint Venture Party Participating Interest

Oilex (JPDA 06-103) Ltd (Operator) 10%

Global Energy Limited (Videocon) 25%(1)

GSPC (JPDA) Ltd 25%(1)

Bharat PetroResources JPDA Limited 25%(1)

Japan Energy E&P JPDA Pty Ltd 15%

1. Pan Pacific Petroleum has recently signed conditional farmin deals with
Global Energy Limited, Bharat PetroResources JPDA Ltd and GSPC (JPDA) Ltd
to acquire a 15% participating interest in JPDA 06-103.


Yours sincerely,

B. H. McCarthy

Managing Director

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Looks like the 'pre-placement shares hitting the market' sell-off seems to have finished and the SP has stabilised. With the drill bit turning, the market would enjoy early good news. Given the size of the potential target, I am wondering if we might see some $$ start to slowly move into OEX. Not many 190mmbl targets around that shall have results within 3 weeks. Better still, a follow up 90mmbl to follow.


Holding OEX at 29c

 

[quarky]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Looks like the 'pre-placement shares hitting the market' sell-off seems to have finished and the SP has stabilised. With the drill bit turning, the market would enjoy early good news. Given the size of the potential target, I am wondering if we might see some $$ start to slowly move into OEX. Not many 190mmbl targets around that shall have results within 3 weeks. Better still, a follow up 90mmbl to follow.


Holding OEX at 29c

BESBS Player
would you still say that the SP has stabilized?
or $$ moving _into_ OEX?

the last week or so, has seen the SP decline by the very 35%+ of gains that i was sitting on.
now, it's almost zilch for me...as it's gone back to my purchase price of 0.285

feels like the OEX SP is being manipulated by heavyweights or do they know something behind why they're selling, e.g. JPMorgan (UK) offloading their 'substantial' holdings

 

[Tommo_Aus]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Hi all, long time reader of this thread but first time poster

OEX is still trading on high volume but I'm sceptical as to the source of the shares currently being traded (BESBS players getting out, traders with cold feet or pre-placement shares)... hopefully the pre-placement shares are almost out of the way.

What sort of ride are we looking at with 2 or possibly 3 wells? A rocky slope (up and down between wells) or perhaps a smooth rise?

Holding OEX @ 33c (in hindsight I should've waited a week instead of buying mid September but what can you do )

 

[stock_junkie]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Hi guys

I am a close watcher and owner of Oilex at the moment. I enjoy trying to read graphs and this one has some nice oscillating pattern to it. After watching it rise to 38c, I suspected a fall due to its pattern. Sure enough - so I'm now holding at 31c (although a little premature!)

As seen in the attached graph, you can see a nice trend starting to form with good oscillation. It is also hitting the 60 day moving average which may be another trigger for an up-movement. My prediction is a rise off this bottoming out and a continued oscillation but continued uptrend

Cheers

Oh, and apparently I need atleast 5 posts to insert an image or hyperlink?!
So if you like, please copy and paste the code below in your browser to see some basic charting analysis

img.photobucket.com/albums/v190/skary/OEX091126.jpg

Holding at 31c

Good Luck!