SYN - Synergia Energy

[swm79]

Re: OEX - Oilex

saw a 12 mth target on this one by hartleys at 89c in early July when the SP was at 15c

would have been nice at 15c instead of the 27c i got in at... but still from 27 to 89 sounds nice!

 

[Out Too Soon]

Re: OEX - Oilex

saw a 12 mth target on this one by hartleys at 89c in early July when the SP was at 15c

would have been nice at 15c instead of the 27c i got in at... but still from 27 to 89 sounds nice!

By the time Hartleys long term predictions are proven wrong everyone has forgotten. Not that I don't beleive 89c is probable, just I don't think such predictions are worth a pinch of salt :
Tell me what the share is going to do in the next week, then I'm interested


PS: I think it's going to go up with the "POO"

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Hi OTS.

Always hard to say what the SP will be next week. However, one needs to look at what is a likely trigger for a SP spike. In the case of OEX, we have no official ASX announcements to go on BUT we should be close to the time when OEX will announce a drilling rig and date. Based on the over-the-top reaction to MMR when they mentioned that they were getting closer to funding Biggis, I think it is a fair assumption (although risky) to assume that the punters will love an OEX announcement confirming drilling at a large target pre-Christmas (if it occurs).

Bordercityfirm mentioned last week that the word on the street is that such an announcement is imminent. While I fully disclose that I have not had any face-to-face contact with anyone in the know, I have also heard a similar rumour from someone within the industry. I suspect that this rumour is what is driving the SP increase in OEX - already up from mid 20s to 33c in a week with no news to the market! Combine this rumour and the MMR example I listed, and suddenly you have a potential rocket for the OEX SP IF both assumptions/rumours are true.

I can't be sure but the trading in OEX is telling me that others think the same thing. Remember, we might all be wrong!

Best of luck with your investments,

BESBS Player

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Sold out of RNG and put the funds into OEX as a top-up.

Ready now for a drilling announcement. Hope it arrives soon!!!



Holding OEX @ 29.5 ave

 

[DVEOUS]

Re: OEX - Oilex

I think it is a fair assumption (although risky) to assume that the punters will love an OEX announcement confirming drilling at a large target pre-Christmas (if it occurs).

BESBS, looks like this happened after the market closed, yesterday.
From the OEX Annual Report;

The planned exploration drilling program in the
forthcoming months is an exciting, near-term project and will complete a sequence of intensive activity which saw the acquisition and interpretation of the large 3D data volume and the development of a portfolio of robust prospects.

The Company is working to secure the services of a drilling rig following the termination of the original rig contract by the drilling contractor due to issues unrelated to the Company. Current planning has the commencement of drilling of two wells in late 2009.

Looks like they are still on target to be drilling Timor Sea and the Carnarvon Basin before years end.

Further into the report, they become very tight lipped!

LIKELY DEVELOPMENTS
Other than the matters referred to elsewhere in this report, further disclosure as to likely developments in the operations of the Group and expected results of those operations would, in the opinion of the Board, be speculative and not in the best interests of the Group.

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Thanks, Dvious.

Hoping that drilling will be confirmed soon otherwise I might have to wait a little while.

Happy to hold...

 

[newanimal]

Re: OEX - Oilex

I topped up earlier today as well then put in a stoploss at .270. Obvious close call. I do hope the drop to .275 then move back up to .29 is only a gap closing and shakeout before resuming on. Any thoughts?

 

[bugmenot]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Cue Ready with Oilex Seismic Results

http://www.upstreamonline.com/incoming/article191908.ece/

Australia’s Cue Energy Resources said the processing of the data acquired under the Rose 2D and 3D seismic surveys is now complete.

Some 1400 square kilometres of 3D seismic were gathered from the survey completed in August 2008. Of these, 350 square kilometres 3D and 117 kilometres 2D relate to Cue Energy’s WA-389-P permit off Western Australia. Majority of the new seismic were acquired in Oilex-operated WA-388-P.

Wavefield Inseis vessel Geowave Champion was commissioned to perform the survey.

The new data will be used to mature the leads as possible drilling prospects in the two permits.

 

[swm79]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Cue Ready with Oilex Seismic Results

http://www.upstreamonline.com/incoming/article191908.ece/

Australia’s Cue Energy Resources said the processing of the data acquired under the Rose 2D and 3D seismic surveys is now complete.

Some 1400 square kilometres of 3D seismic were gathered from the survey completed in August 2008. Of these, 350 square kilometres 3D and 117 kilometres 2D relate to Cue Energy’s WA-389-P permit off Western Australia. Majority of the new seismic were acquired in Oilex-operated WA-388-P.

Wavefield Inseis vessel Geowave Champion was commissioned to perform the survey.

The new data will be used to mature the leads as possible drilling prospects in the two permits.

your link doesnt work.

i hope this comes soon... i'm so impatient

McCarthy says things should start happening early Oct re: return on investment i.e. indo should be approved... then india... and Oman's prod well should be producing "now"... i hope he's right and we start seeing some of that return!

 

[kelvin]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Sep 24, 2009 (Hugin via COMTEX) ----Songa Offshore SE is pleased to announce that a drilling contract has been concluded between its subsidiary Songa Offshore Drilling Ltd and Oilex (JPDA 06-103) Ltd on behalf of its Joint Venture for contract area JPDA Block 06-103 in the Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA) between Timor Leste and Australia for utilization of the semi-submersible Songa Mercur drilling rig. The contract covers a drilling campaign of 2 wells plus 1 optional well in the JPDA, with a mobilization and de-mobilization element included into the agreement.

Total estimated contract duration for drilling operations is 50 days plus an additional 25 days if the optional well is exercised, the Drilling operations day rate is US$280,000 per day, reducing to US$250,000 applying if the combined Woodside and Oilex contract period exceed an agreed period.

Subject to meeting certain contractual requirements, the drilling rig is scheduled to mobilize for the Oilex Joint Venture immediately after release of the rig from the earlier announced contract with Woodside Energy Ltd.

Limassol, 24 September 2009

This announcement was originally distributed by Hugin. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

SOURCE: Songa Offshore SE

 

[DVEOUS]

Re: OEX - Oilex

I'm aboard OEX, in at $0.295, this morning.
Kicking myself I didn't do it Tuesday at $0.275.

Anyway, rig announcement released this morning, so let's see where this goes.
There's a lot of red on my screen at the moment, but at least OEX is holding in there.

 

[TabJockey]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Does anyone have a broker target price recently? Im in at 27.5c and im trying to work out an exit plan. Hoping for 30% by December but not really sure how far this ones going to run.

 

[DVEOUS]

Re: OEX - Oilex

I meant to include the announcement highlights in my post above:

OILEX SECURES DRILLING RIG FOR TWO WELLS IN TIMOR SEA
• Contract signed with Songa Offshore Drilling Limited to secure a drilling rig for two wells in contract area JPDA 06-103 in the Timor Sea

• Drilling to commence following release of the rig from Woodside’s imminent 1 to 3 well program on North West Shelf, WA

• Oilex has funding for these wells under a previously announced Farm-Out Agreement between Oilex and Japan Energy (OEX retains 10% interest)

• Initial two-well program to drill prospects with combined prospective oil resources of 285 million barrels (100% basis) adjacent to the recent Kitan oil discovery (ENI)

Hoping for 30% by December but not really sure how far this ones going to run.

A broker target would be interesting.

The drilling rig is scheduled to mobilise for the Oilex Joint Venture, subject to meeting certain contractual requirements, immediately after release from its current contract with Woodside Energy Ltd, anticipated to be in November 2009 on the basis of Woodside’s likely schedule of two wells.

I have no idea how long it would take to relocate the rig, and set it up once in position, but the announcement suggests November is when that will happen.
You may have some news before end of year.
Potentially a good Christmas present! ;-)

 

[TabJockey]

Re: OEX - Oilex

SP is all over the place this morning, if I spot a 29c buy I will be accumulating. Pretty cheap considering todays announcement.

 

[Alporfavor]

Re: OEX - Oilex

I expected that this announcement would have generated more interest from the market, but I guess that people a willing to wait until closer to the actual drilling before acting.

Btw I'm very new to the game so I don't really know much.

 

[swm79]

Re: OEX - Oilex

correctamundo

they'll wait to see what the drilling results bring... the fact that they ARE drilling means nothing. its good that they have approval etc, but who cares if they turn up nada? - you saw what happened to the likes of KAR on good results AND bad results in a space of a few months...

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Nice to see today's announcement confirm that a rig is now booked.

*Initial two-well program to drill prospects with combined prospective oil resources of 285 million barrels (100% basis) adjacent to the recent Kitan oil discovery (ENI)

This sized target will attract plenty of punters who will be ready to climb on board. Given it is a 2 well program, a follow-up 2nd well gives some stability to the SP if the 1st well is a duster. Funding is assured so there should not be the perceived threat of a capital raising - another factor that can dampen a pre-spud run.

Does anyone have a broker target price recently? Im in at 27.5c and im trying to work out an exit plan. Hoping for 30% by December but not really sure how far this ones going to run.

Really hard to say, TJ. Some stocks like MMR ran without drilling rigs confirmed while others vary - the market is always hard to predict. That said, one would hope that we would see 40-50c in the lead-up and early part of the 1st drilling (given the large potential reserves at stake).

As a BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud) play, I would be hoping for 40-50% on this one based on an entry price around the 30c mark. As always, no guarantees. I have been topping up recently.

Holding OEX at 28.5c ave.

 

[Alporfavor]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Hi BESBS Player,

Would a BESBS play involve exiting your position in the stock before the first well is drilled if there are multiple targets in an upcoming campaign?

I'm guessing that there's no simple black and white answer but I'm just curious about this approach.

 

[bugmenot]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Another press release with lots of esoteric jibberish that I do not understand.

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewnewspaged/articleid/3505529/pageid/2


London, Sep. 25, 2009 (PR Newswire UK Disclose) --
Media Release 25 September 2009
OILEX SECURES DRILLING RIG FOR TWO WELLS IN TIMOR SEA
* Contract signed with Songa Offshore Drilling Limited to secure a drilling
rig for two wells in contract area JPDA 06-103 in the Timor Sea

* Drilling to commence following release of the rig from Woodside's imminent
1 to 3 well program on North West Shelf, WA

* Oilex has funding for these wells under a previously announced Farm-Out
Agreement between Oilex and Japan Energy (OEX retains 10% interest)

* Initial two-well program to drill prospects with combined prospective oil
resources of 285 million barrels (100% basis) adjacent to the recent Kitan
oil discovery (ENI)

Oilex Ltd (ASX: OEX, AIM: OEX) is pleased to advise that it has signed a
contract with Songa Offshore Drilling Limited ("Songa") to secure the services
of the semi-submersible drilling rig "Songa Mercur". The rig will drill two
wells (with the option of one additional well) in the contract area JPDA 06-103
in the Joint Petroleum Development Area ("JPDA") of the Timor Sea.
The drilling contract is the latest in a sequence of recent events that will
culminate in the drilling of two attractive offshore oil prospects in JPDA
06-103 including:
* Oilex farming out part of its interest in this block to Japan Energy E&P
JPDA Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of Japan Energy Corporation - resulting in Oilex
being carried for its 10% share of all costs associated with the first two
commitment wells (up to an agreed cap) and repayment of some of Oilex past
expenditures;

* The term of the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) being extended to 15
January 2011; and

* The selection of the Loré and Lolotoe prospects － with combined prospective
oil resources of 285 million barrels of oil － as the locations for the
first two wells.

Prospects
The portfolio of prospects in JPDA 06-103 comprises over 20 structural
closures. Drilling locations have been selected for the first two wells on
prospects with recoverable mean prospective resources (on 100% basis) of 195
million barrels of oil (Loré) and 90 million barrels of oil (Lolotoe).
ROSPECTIVE RESOURCES - OIL
(probability in million stock tank barrels recoverable)
P90 P50 P10 MEAN
PROSPECT
LORÉ 20 102 515 195
LOLOTOE 14 57 220 90
Figure 1. Range of prospective resources on 100% basis, Lore& Lolotoe
prospects JPDA 06-103
The prospect portfolio was prioritised on the basis of potential resource
volume and technical risk.

While oil is the anticipated hydrocarbon phase based on nearest offset discoveries, the possibility also exists for significant gas condensate finds in the block. Conoco-Phillips' Bayu Undan gas condensate field is located about 40km to the south of JPDA 06-103. JPDA 06-103 lies close to significant recent discoveries and prolific producing fields further to the west along geological trend. ENI's 2008 discovery at Kitan, located in the adjacent PSC to the west of JPDA 06-103, is now under development and wells and fields to the south and west of JPDA 06-103 have demonstrated exceptionally high productivity on testing oil. The Kitan-1 discovery well is reported to have flowed oil at a rate of 6,300 bopd from a drill stem test in the Elang/Plover Formation. The discovery was followed by an appraisal well, Kitan-2, that confirmed its commercial viability. The Maura 3D seismic survey (2,140 km²), in combination with existing 3D seismic data in the block, provides 3D seismic coverage over about 90% of the contract area. The seismic data quality is excellent and the definition of events at the level of the top primary objective － the Elang and Plover Formation reservoirs - allows for interpretation with a higher level of confidence than previously achievable using older seismic data. Prospects were mapped in detail based on the integrated set of new 3D, regional 2D and older, reprocessed 3D seismic data and regional well data. Farm-Out Under the terms of the Farm-Out Agreement, Oilex has agreed to assign 15% of its 25% interest in the block to Japan Energy E&P JPDA Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of Japan Energy Corporation. The consideration payable by Japan Energy is made up of two components: (1) a part refund of past costs incurred by Oilex in relation to JPDA 06-103; and (2) future funding of Oilex's remaining 10% share of the costs for the first two commitment wells up to an agreed cap. Oilex will remain as Operator of the PSC. Rig Contract A drilling contract has been concluded between Songa Offshore Drilling Ltd and Oilex (JPDA 06-103) Ltd on behalf of its Joint Venture for utilization of the semi-submersible drilling rig "Songa Mercur". The contract covers a drilling campaign of two wells and the option of one additional well in the JPDA 06-103 contract area. The drilling rig is scheduled to mobilise for the Oilex Joint Venture, subject to meeting certain contractual requirements, immediately after release from its current contract with Woodside Energy Ltd, anticipated to be in November 2009 on the basis of Woodside's likely schedule of two wells. Figure 2. Location map JPDA 06-103, Timor Sea Figure 3.

Prospects and leads JPDA 06-103(Please refer to Oilex website for full report) The participating interests in the JPDA 06-103 PSC are: Joint Venture Party Participating Interest Oilex (JPDA 06-103) Ltd (Operator) 10% Global Energy Inc 25% GSPC (JPDA) Limited 25% Bharat PetroResources JPDA Limited 25% Japan Energy E&P JPDA Pty Ltd 15% For further information, please contact: Ray Barnes - Technical Director, Oilex Ltd Tel. +61 8 9485 3200 (Western Australia) Archie Berens - Director, Pelham Public Relations Tel. +44 20 7337 1509 (United Kingdom) Nicholas Read - Read Corporate Tel. +61 8 9388 1474 (Western Australia) The information in this report has been compiled by the Managing Director of Oilex Ltd, Bruce McCarthy B.Sc. (Hons) PhD (Geology) who has over 30 years experience in petroleum geology. The estimates of hydrocarbon resources were reviewed by Ray Barnes B.Sc. (Hons), the Technical Director of Oilex Ltd who has over 35 years experience in petroleum geology and is a member of the AAPG. Mr Barnes reviewed this announcement and consents to the inclusion of the estimated hydrocarbon resources in the form and context in which they appear. The resource estimates contained in this report are in accordance with the standard definitions set out by the Society of Petroleum Engineers, Petroleum Resources Management System, 2007. Further information is available at www.spe.org. Oilex's nominated advisor in relation to the AIM market is RFC Corporate Finance Ltd, contact: Stuart Laing, stuartl@rfc.com.au END OILEX LTD

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: OEX - Oilex

Hi BESBS Player,

Would a BESBS play involve exiting your position in the stock before the first well is drilled if there are multiple targets in an upcoming campaign?

I'm guessing that there's no simple black and white answer but I'm just curious about this approach.

Hi Alporfavor,

Great question. Depends ultimately on risk assessment. As I see OEX, the odds of a SPP are limited (but not eliminated) due to the short time frame to drilling. That said, the odds of a capital raising via a placement to a Sophisticated Investor are very high. While this usually has an impact thats sees the SP weaken, this impact can soon be wiped out if the placement is quick, seen to add value to the company (ie. add needed cash in hand) and the company has a large potential prospect to drill in the near future. In June/July, this was the pattern for LKO and I suspect that OEX will follow (assuming that the general market holds up OK).

As you rightly point out, OEX have a 2well program. This allows one to invest in the first well with some security offered by a follow-up well if the first well is a duster. Nevertheless, the SP will tank somewhat if the first well is a duster.

In my case, I think I will hold as the drill goes down on the first well as there are several targets to test. Once it got to 2/3rds down the first well, I'd probably leave if results weren't showing hydrocarbons or gas/oil shows. To me, to hang on is too risky but many punters will hang on further - depends on risk analysis.

As a further play, I might also have a look at OEX as a Buy On Bad news (BOBN) if the first drill is a duster. Often punters sell off too hastily and one can easily get a cheap 20-30% profit on the bounce between the drills.

Hope this helps. Remember that it is just one opinion...

Kind regards,
BESBS