Surely, it can't be this easy?!

[LostMyShirt]

I think you have taken this new-age philosophy way too seriously.

Yes I do believe that the Mind (consciousness) does have an external effect on reality - but its effect is extremely miniscule.

 

[skc]

I have thought about that scenario (along with many others) skc. Two people, one long, one short, both very strong winning attitudes at that specific moment in time. One possible explanation is that this sort of situation would never occur. Another possible explanation is that our understanding of one or both traders is flawed - we thought trader #1 was very positive, but he always got the wobbles after a huge winning streak. His inner dialogue is "wow things are going well.... a little too well" and doubt has crept in just at that very moment. Perhaps trader #2 has a brilliant attitude, but when placed under the microscope, falls to pieces. A third possibility would involve the idea of parallel universes wherein whatever trader #1 believes will occur occurs, whatever trader#2 believes also occurs, and whatever you believe will occur, occurs, and whatever I believe will occur occurs, perhaps all in sych inside the one universe, perhaps in 4 separate universes, all identical apart from one factor - viz the outcome of the trade. If the two traders had absolutely identical attitudes, then both would win in different universes. The idea of "observer dependence" - read here: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?t=85553

By the way, parrallel universe theory isn't new age mumbo jumbo. Lots of links on the web.

At this point I shall leave the discussion (in this universe at least).

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I think you have taken this new-age philosophy way too seriously.

Yes I do believe that the Mind (consciousness) does have an external effect on reality - but its effect is extremely miniscule.

When you investigate something, you do it properly. You don't read one useless new age book and leave it there.

I found out recently that I had done over 2.5 million backetests on Amibroker! How's that for dedication to traditional methods? They were all stored in report explorer folder unbeknown to me. Took an hour to delete.

 

[LostMyShirt]

Haha - well mate, if you're winning, you're winning. Keep it up

 

[satanoperca]

When you investigate something, you do it properly. You don't read one useless new age book and leave it there.

I found out recently that I had done over 2.5 million backetests on Amibroker! How's that for dedication to traditional methods? They were all stored in report explorer folder unbeknown to me. Took an hour to delete.

Find that hard to believe but you may be correct.

2.5M backtest taking 1 minute each would have taken you 4.87 years working 24/7. hmmm correct me if I'm wrong. This maybe reduced if you were optimising some variables giving you more backtest per function.

Just keeping it real.

Cheers

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I've been doing it 10 years. Most are quite simple, taking about 10 seconds to complete. It's real.

Anyone with AB can check their own: AA>Report>Report explorer. If it takes more than a few minutes for the window to appear you may have many hundreds of thousands recorded. Most system testers in here would have similar I imagine.

 

[cynic]

I don't expect anyone to buy this, because the psychology of trading is a bit of a taboo subject here on ASF.

I base my claim on quite a number of experiments with my own trading, and observations of friends and family members with their trading. I have looked at the influence of positive attitude and found it to be far more influential in determining profit than any other factor (including method or system, time in the market, experience, or phases of the market). I also have a small but compelling bit of evidence to suggest that no knowledge of the market at all is necessary at all.

Whilst participating in this concept we call life, within this seemingly infinite universe, I find that it pays to keep an open mind about all possibilites whilst maintaining a healthy degree of skepticism about everything.

Having said that, I too have observed the significant impact that one's mind-set can have on one's trading activities (and other aspects of one's life for that matter). Some may ascribe the cited occurrences to being mere coincidence, or simply the human habit of only noticing events that coincide with one's personal viewpoint.
I am fairly confident that this is rarely the case in the events that I've observed to date. So I'm not in the least surprised to hear you making similar claims, GB.

I cannot conclusively prove that it is so, but the rate at which these experiences keep accumulating, would place the odds of these events being mere coincidence somewhere in the vicinity of the odds of winning a major lottery prize. So I am hardly about to ignore the evidence of my own eyes and bank balance. On the subject of proof, I've always been an advocate of the adage that "absence of proof does not constitute proof of absence". Generally when I encounter something that "behaves like a duck..." I consider it prudent to treat it as such until such time as its behaviour changes. In the meantime, I consider proof (or absence thereof) to be largely irrelevant to my trading activities. Whilst something continues to behave in a certain fashion, I can continue to profit from that behaviour, regardless of whether the theories behind that behaviour are proven or not.

For those whom are comfortable with their various approaches to trading, whether that approach be technical, fundamental, intuitive, chaotic or otherwise, I say bravo!

For those whom are yet to discover a profitable trading strategy, I would highly recommend taking the open-minded skeptic approach until such time as you discover an approach that works for you and passes the test of time!

 

[tech/a]

I've been doing it 10 years. Most are quite simple, taking about 10 seconds to complete. It's real.

Anyone with AB can check their own: AA>Report>Report explorer. If it takes more than a few minutes for the window to appear you may have many hundreds of thousands recorded. Most system testers in here would have similar I imagine.

That's amazing GG
What can you tell us you've learnt from so much testing.
I know I found that most conventional trading "ideas" were useless.

But what have you learnt
What can you pass to those who are starting?

 

[nomore4s]

When you investigate something, you do it properly. You don't read one useless new age book and leave it there.

I found out recently that I had done over 2.5 million backetests on Amibroker! How's that for dedication to traditional methods? They were all stored in report explorer folder unbeknown to me. Took an hour to delete.

I find it a little bit ironic that you say all that is needed to succeed in the market is a positive attitude yet you have done 10 years worth of testing with Amibroker to understand what works in the market.

Maybe the people with the correct attitude do the correct things to succeed at life, trading or whatever. I've found the people with "winning" attitudes tend not to leave things to chance if they can help it, they work hard and find a way to succeed. Much like you have done with your backtesting efforts.

 

[skc]

Having said that, I too have observed the significant impact that one's mind-set can have on one's trading activities (and other aspects of one's life for that matter).

Of course! There is never any debate about that! It has a huge impact... it may even be the MOST important factor.

But it is not SUFFICIENT on its own.

The only way to explain it is for your mindset to have the ability to alter other people's behaviour.

This is possible in some circumstance - social occassions, team sports etc etc. But the market?! How?!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

That's amazing GG
What can you tell us you've learnt from so much testing.
I know I found that most conventional trading "ideas" were useless.

But what have you learnt
What can you pass to those who are starting?

1. In general, the smaller the number of parameters in your system, the more robust it is. (less degrees of freedom means that if it's profitable now then it should persist into the future). Every extra parameter you add should cause you to test over one extra year of data.
2. If you find something that works, shorten the time frame and see if it holds. The shorter the time frame, the more profit potential, but on the flip side the more slippage will hurt you, especially in stocks outside the top 50 by MC. Slippage is diabolical in small caps.
3. Momentum has been scientifically proven to work as a strategy, (in finance journals, Google it).
4. If you can't get a steep equity curve, but it's still really smooth, using leverage is a very viable option of increasing returns. Basically the higher the Sharpe ratio, the more leverage you can safely apply, since the Sharpe ratio can't be altered by leveraging.
6. Keep a watch out for future-referencing code.
7. Don't discard every system that has a high drawdown. If the run ups and draw downs are smooth, you can trade the equity curve very profitably. To make any curve smooth requires a small time frame and high turnover.
8. Try to create a system that is 'organic', ie. an idea that you can translate into English and something that would make sense to a non-trader. You can't translate "stochastic cross" very easily into English. Organic systems need little (if any) optimizing. If you like the idea of optimizing, make sure to walk it forward using multiple time frames, anchored and non-anchored.

 

[waimate01]

A third possibility would involve the idea of parallel universes wherein whatever trader #1 believes will occur occurs, whatever trader#2 believes also occurs, and whatever you believe will occur, occurs, and whatever I believe will occur occurs, perhaps all in sych inside the one universe, perhaps in 4 separate universes, all identical apart from one factor - viz the outcome of the trade. If the two traders had absolutely identical attitudes, then both would win in different universes. The idea of "observer dependence" - read here: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?t=85553

By the way, parrallel universe theory isn't new age mumbo jumbo. Lots of links on the web.

Fortunately there's an easy and foolproof test for this hypothesis. Go to the top of a tall building and take a $1 coin with you. Flip the coin, and if it comes up heads, jump off the building. Now in 50% of the infinite universes, it will come up heads and you'll cease to exist. In the other 50%, you'll still be there to see that it came up tails. Now half of infinity is still infinity, and since the observer controls the universe, you'll only end up in the universes where it came up tails. Try it! Half of the infinite you will plummet to your death, but an infinite number will be standing there looking at a tails, thinking "wow, he was right". If you do this experiment and survive to post back to this forum, then that proves the hypothesis beyond doubt.

PS. The reason this doesn't work in a casino with a red/black bet is that in both scenarios you survive to observe the outcome. Simple, really

 

[Gringotts Bank]

"...since the observer controls the universe, you'll only end up in the universes where it came up tails".
^
Not sure I follow what you're saying here.

 

[tech/a]

No I get it!

Now Is there a god!
Or Life after death
or consciousness after death

I'm 100% sure there is as no one one has come back from the dead to confirm there isn't.
I'm 100% sure there isn't as no one has come back from the dead to confirm there is.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Bought X stock at X price, shares went up approx 0.25 cents, sold them and made close enough to 1K. Thanks for coming! Surely it can't be this easy! I'm considering doing this full- time Just kidding. Question is, what sort of "run" have members had? Is this typical?

I remember having a good first up win but I now realise it was to draw me (the un-fleeced) into the game. Remember this next time you put your hard earned into shares. They can put it on but believe me they can take it off faster. The big stacks run the show.

 

[LostMyShirt]

No I get it!

Now Is there a god!
Or Life after death
or consciousness after death

I'm 100% sure there is as no one one has come back from the dead to confirm there isn't.
I'm 100% sure there isn't as no one has come back from the dead to confirm there is.

Best to say you are 99% sure - as 100% boasts certainty, and I am 99.99% sure you have not achieved certainty

 

[Nonchalant]

I remember having a good first up win but I now realise it was to draw me (the un-fleeced) into the game. Remember this next time you put your hard earned into shares. They can put it on but believe me they can take it off faster. The big stacks run the show.

Hey W

You're intimating that there's some conspiracy or devious plot afoot. I personally don't believe that's the case. Do I have any proof, well no, I don't. I can't for a second imagine some guy/girl sitting behind a desk pursing their lips, rubbing their chin and thinking let's get this noob!. How on earth could he/she/they ascertain you're a first time investor or a relatively new investor I apply common sense and logic to all situations and that scenario just ain't happening.

Can the big wigs manipulate the market, I don't enough about the stock market to answer that. As a layman, I would hazzard a guess and say yes, they probably could. Could they identify and target an individual, no.


Have a great weekend all.

 

[nomore4s]

Can the big wigs manipulate the market, I don't enough about the stock market to answer that. As a layman, I would hazzard a guess and say yes, they probably could. Could they identify and target an individual, no.

Not so much about big wigs targeting individuals, more about the market as a whole sucking newbies into the game and then spitting them out very quickly after sucking them dry.

The big problem is markets prey on human emotions like greed and fear, and the market is very efficient at exploiting these emotions - in both the experienced & inexperienced but it is the inexperienced that tend to get burnt.

Most individuals start out cautious and as such stick to good basic trading principles without actually realising what they are doing but after a few wins start chasing the market thinking it is easy and are very quickly in the red, this happens to a surprisingly high number of beginners. (This is a simplified version but you get the point).

 

[Ves]

I have thought about that scenario (along with many others) skc. Two people, one long, one short, both very strong winning attitudes at that specific moment in time. One possible explanation is that this sort of situation would never occur. Another possible explanation is that our understanding of one or both traders is flawed - we thought trader #1 was very positive, but he always got the wobbles after a huge winning streak. His inner dialogue is "wow things are going well.... a little too well" and doubt has crept in just at that very moment. Perhaps trader #2 has a brilliant attitude, but when placed under the microscope, falls to pieces. A third possibility would involve the idea of parallel universes wherein whatever trader #1 believes will occur occurs, whatever trader#2 believes also occurs, and whatever you believe will occur, occurs, and whatever I believe will occur occurs, perhaps all in sych inside the one universe, perhaps in 4 separate universes, all identical apart from one factor - viz the outcome of the trade. If the two traders had absolutely identical attitudes, then both would win in different universes. The idea of "observer dependence" - read here: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?t=85553

By the way, parrallel universe theory isn't new age mumbo jumbo. Lots of links on the web.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkxieS-6WuA

Something such as this, perhaps.

edit: What you are talking about has a lot to do with Quantum physics & String theory, from memory.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Hey W

You're intimating that there's some conspiracy or devious plot afoot. I personally don't believe that's the case.

What nm 4's posted below is what generally happens.

Could they identify and target an individual, no.

Well brokers are the only ones who know what stock you buy. I'm not a big stack but I do hear my stock purchases echoed from time to time.

Have a great weekend all.

You too.

Most individuals start out cautious and as such stick to good basic trading principles without actually realising what they are doing but after a few wins start chasing the market thinking it is easy and are very quickly in the red, this happens to a surprisingly high number of beginners. (This is a simplified version but you get the point).

Yes and that phase is what Tech/a and skc and skyquake (sorry if I left anyone out) have been through. There is a time to ease into the share market, a time to jump in boots and all into the share market and a time to close all positions and sit out of the share market.