Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Students of Roger Montgomery's (Buffett's) intrinsic valuation method

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Thanks Bunter I use Etrade which seems to be the same as Comsec.

Anyway here's the new version (attached) which saves the records to a new sheet; haven't tested it a lot yet so any feedback appreciated. Note that you can change the
data on the 'Saved' sheet to try out different scenarios.

Oops cancel that, the file is 822k and it seems the max is 488k. Any ideas?
 
RogueTrader273 said:
Thanks Bunter I use Etrade which seems to be the same as Comsec.

Anyway here's the new version (attached) which saves the records to a new sheet; haven't tested it a lot yet so any feedback appreciated. Note that you can change the
data on the 'Saved' sheet to try out different scenarios.

Oops cancel that, the file is 822k and it seems the max is 488k. Any ideas?
Click to expand...

Use some form of compession say Winzip or similar most people will find a way to open it anyway.
http://download.cnet.com/1770-20_4-...Name=platform=Windows&filter=platform=Windows Just checked ETrade they list shares on issue 72.5 as well it makes a big difference!
 
Ok it's an .rar file but I had to change the extension to .txt to upload it, so just change it back to .rar and you should be able to open it.
 

Attachments

  • Intrinsic Value Calculator V32.txt
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RogueTrader273 said:
Ok it's an .rar file but I had to change the extension to .txt to upload it, so just change it back to .rar and you should be able to open it.
Click to expand...

Thanks RT I downloaded and just opened with WinRaR - its not easy to change the extension in Win 7. I feel that all the important columns should be grouped first after Price - IV ROE RR, Quality Rating C1 etc and MOS. If you feel that any others are part of your decision making process, group them there as well. Its reasonable to have info available but you don't want it to cloud decision making. Nor do you want to be completing and adding more data than absolutley necessary to get the final decision making tool to work. Keep in mind there are lots of stocks to check once you have identified run a stock screener!
 
Yes sadly I had to put all that data in so as to be able to perform calculations on the 'Saved' sheet - you can change price, RR etc and note the effects.
Still trying to test things are working properly before I fine tune the layout; of course you can hide columns as you said too.
Do the calcs on the 'Main' sheet seem to be giving the right answers to you? I haven't spent too much time checking those yet.
 
RogueTrader273 said:
Yes sadly I had to put all that data in so as to be able to perform calculations on the 'Saved' sheet - you can change price, RR etc and note the effects.
Still trying to test things are working properly before I fine tune the layout; of course you can hide columns as you said too.
Do the calcs on the 'Main' sheet seem to be giving the right answers to you? I haven't spent too much time checking those yet.
Click to expand...

RT work through some today and put them on the site to hopefully get comfirmation.
 
Ok, not too sure about some of these results, e.g for NVT I get a CY IV result of 1.78,
(RR of 12) from:

.... Curr 2011 2012
EPS 18.8 20.4 23.9
DPS 18.8 20.3 24.0

................. 2008/06 2009/06 2010/06
Book Value ($) -- .... .. 0.29 ..... 0.31
Shares Outstanding (m) 342.2 ... 342.4

Maybe someone more expert than me can check my calcs? Here's a better link to the workbook: http://www.sendspace.com/file/h045m1
 
RogueTrader273 said:
Ok, not too sure about some of these results, e.g for NVT I get a CY IV result of 1.78,
(RR of 12) from:

.... Curr 2011 2012
EPS 18.8 20.4 23.9
DPS 18.8 20.3 24.0

................. 2008/06 2009/06 2010/06
Book Value ($) -- .... .. 0.29 ..... 0.31
Shares Outstanding (m) 342.2 ... 342.4

Maybe someone more expert than me can check my calcs? Here's a better link to the workbook: http://www.sendspace.com/file/h045m1
Click to expand...
Hi RT I tried to enter BHP using RR 10 EPS 262.0 DPS 102.1 Shares 5589.5 EqPS 10.19 ie the Book Value and get IV today of $315. The future years are less of a concern as the anticipated sometimes changes so you check your holdings bty re enteriing the data. It seems in the EqPS you require additional maths. If thats the case it should be cells completed from the Balance Sheets and the calcs done in the spreadsheet.
 
RT I also put data into Mr Bo's Intrinsic site after you I guess, use EPS as Book Value so I get $1.57. Suncorps value model says $3.06. So I guess there may be two computer programs I am not good at right now.
I guess I will lose more money today. LOL Hopefully having stocks with good ROE and low debt will look after me long term. Until I read Roger's book I was a product of Phil Town's Payback Time, this guided me out of managed funds in a hurry!
 
notabclearning said:
RT I would like to congratulate you on making such a cool excel spreadsheet I love it.
Click to expand...

Thanks notabc! :) Hopefully it's spitting out the right answers, as I'm better at Excel/VBA than I am at valuing companies.

Bunter did you move the decimal point two places to the left entering those cents? Here's my latest version, where I get an IV of $78.90 for BHP:

http://www.sendspace.com/file/cmzern
 
RogueTrader273 said:
Thanks notabc! :) Hopefully it's spitting out the right answers, as I'm better at Excel/VBA than I am at valuing companies.

Bunter did you move the decimal point two places to the left entering those cents? Here's my latest version, where I get an IV of $78.90 for BHP:

http://www.sendspace.com/file/cmzern
Click to expand...

RT that number would be miles to high for BHP, IMO. I entered 262.0 because that's how many cents per share it is and probably would be the best way to calc your worksheet. If you said $ at the top then we would enter 2.62 - your thoughts?
Suncorp Values them at $31.75 I appreciate its a different calc but if the $78.90 was right we should be ripping in. Mr Bo comes in at $44.21
 
Yes I was thinking of changing that to avoid confusion, currently I enter the cents the same as if I was typing them into a calculator.

As far as I can see though my calculations are the same as RM's - do you agree with that or have I missed something out somewhere?
 
RogueTrader273 said:
Yes I was thinking of changing that to avoid confusion, currently I enter the cents the same as if I was typing them into a calculator.

As far as I can see though my calculations are the same as RM's - do you agree with that or have I missed something out somewhere?
Click to expand...

Well Roger said in 10 July 2010 that BHP was at about its IV - the price on that day was $38.50. I dont think a lot has changed since then BHP has outpaced the XJO so it would suggest it has moved ahead of IV. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S3cFIG6LUo&feature=related
Always happy to be corrected!
 
RogueTrader273 said:
Yes I was thinking of changing that to avoid confusion, currently I enter the cents the same as if I was typing them into a calculator.

As far as I can see though my calculations are the same as RM's - do you agree with that or have I missed something out somewhere?
Click to expand...

I think its always better to enter the raw data as displayed - if BVP is 10.62 thats how its entered, if .31 then that's it the less thought and change from displayed financials would be better in the long term.
 
Intrinsic Value said:
RM's more recent IV on BHP was somewhere between 45-50. He gave this on Switzer not that long ago.
Click to expand...

Guidance when we err or when more recent info is available is greatly appreciated.

Have you calculated the IV for NVT and BHP it would be great to get others calcs so we can determine the extent of our errors.
 
Actually if you get Keegan88's worksheet (page 1 of this thread) he gets exactly the same result as me (after you change his value in B26 from 34.99 to 35, since he's omitted the ROUND function.) He also uses RM's formula, so maybe we need RM on here to speak up for his work :)
 

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