Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Stock Market Crash - End of the Bull!

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Higher interest rates and volatility in financial markets have contributed to a disappointing fall in manufacturing activity, the Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) says.

The AiGroup-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI), fell 5.0 points in August to 52.4 as growth in consumer demand and new orders waned.
Click to expand...

http://optuszoo.news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=64727


Surprising to see these sort of negative results in so soon on top of the recent volatility! :rolleyes:

(Did have this info/article posted in the XAO analysis thread but a moderator said it had nothing to do with XAO analysis and deleted it so its probably more fitting for this thread ? If its not fitting for this thread could i please be directed as to where is suitable to post it , thanks.)
 
numbercruncher said:
http://optuszoo.news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=64727


Surprising to see these sort of negative results in so soon on top of the recent volatility! :rolleyes:

(Did have this info/article posted in the XAO analysis thread but a moderator said it had nothing to do with XAO analysis and deleted it so its probably more fitting for this thread ? If its not fitting for this thread could i please be directed as to where is suitable to post it , thanks.)
Click to expand...

Difficult to catigorise. The writer of the article fails to explore reasons for fall off in consumer interest. Nothing is mentioned of the effect that growing importation of products from China is having on our own industry and workforce. Not my expertise but it must be having a detrimental effect.

The subject, if there has not been one on these lines could be worth it's own thread on the lines of China's influence on our manufacture. The other aspect of course is a strengthening dollar which makes is harder for our exporters to compete.

However these aspects are probably not going to be a prime cause of a stock market crash.

A bit lame but two bobs worth
 
LDC Finance is the eighth New Zealand finance group to collapse in 16 months - the fourth to fail in a fortnight - and, according to local experts, there's more pain tocome.

"It's not going to be a soft landing and it ain't going to be a hard landing - it's going to be a good old-fashioned, slam-dunk, road-kill, car-crash landing," New Zealand Shareholders Association chairman Bruce Sheppard said.

"It's taken a decade and a half for it to turn into the bucket of puss it's turned into - it hasn't happened over night."

Mr Sheppard said the New Zealand market was facing a run on investor funds and said even well-managed companies were susceptible. "When finance companies get a run, it doesn't matter how profitable they are," he said. "If they haven't got net cash they're dead."
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http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22364349-643,00.html


Sounds like the Kiwis are hurting "aye Bro" ?


I particuarly liked this line " It's taken a decade and a half for it to turn into the bucket of puss " :D
 
By Rex Nutting
Last Update: 8:19 AM ET Sep 5, 2007Print Subscribe to RSS Disable Live Quotes

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Employment in the U.S. private sector grew by 38,000 in August, the weakest in four years, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. The ADP report suggests nonfarm payrolls may have grown much slower than the 123,000 anticipated by economists ahead of the report. Adding in some 27,000 government jobs typically added but not covered by the ADP report, it suggests nonfarm payrolls grew by about 65,000. The Labor Department will report on the nonfarm payrolls number on Friday. The goods-producing sector fell by 49,000 jobs in August, including 33,000 in manufacturing. The services sector added 87,000 jobs in August.

End quote:

Notice FTSE down tonight, on above a drop on dow likelt
 
How is everyone handling the markets at the moment?

Are they taking the short gains or getting set LONG or SHORT?

Any predictions for the ALL ords at XMAS?

I reckon we could see 7000 if the sub-prime issues are pushed aside, but we could see another test of 5500.

I dont know which way it is going....


Just taking short gains at the moment.
 
As we speak the short gains are turning to be long pain.
Alan Kohler was right. Until 19 Sept do not commit in market

Regards
 
Ken said:
How is everyone handling the markets at the moment?

Are they taking the short gains or getting set LONG or SHORT?

Any predictions for the ALL ords at XMAS?

I reckon we could see 7000 if the sub-prime issues are pushed aside, but we could see another test of 5500.

I dont know which way it is going....


Just taking short gains at the moment.
Click to expand...

My financial planner has just pulled me in to reorganise my portfolio.He forecasts 5400 by Xmas and could even be as low as 5100.I have enjoyed a period of excellent growth-I entered 4 years ago when the market was 3800.
 
NEW YORK, Sept 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures dropped on Friday after data showed monthly hiring contracted for the first time in four years, fanning recession fears and adding pressure for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.

U.S. employers slashed 4,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department reported. Economists were expecting an increase of 110,000 jobs.

"It's dreadful, and not only the current numbers but the revisions. It shows the so-called support for the economy from rising employment is rapidly eroding and to me it seems almost inevitable we're heading for recession," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co in New York.
Click to expand...

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN0719749420070907?rpc=44

Even Greenspan is weighing in and comparing it to 1987

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/07/news/newsmakers/bc.apfn.greenspan.remarks.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007090706

All fairly predictable stuff really ..... ;)
 
sassa said:
My financial planner has just pulled me in to reorganise my portfolio.He forecasts 5400 by Xmas and could even be as low as 5100.I have enjoyed a period of excellent growth-I entered 4 years ago when the market was 3800.
Click to expand...

Jobs figures just out, not good, which will mean the US will cut rates and the market will rally hard!
 
Ohhh what the hell...I am a bear now too since we have a few headstrong bears on this forum!.....I see the ASX at 3500 by years end

I am going to the teddy bears picnic this weekend...care to join!
 
insider said:
US cuts rates... Then Crash :D
Click to expand...

I think the market is in quite a bit of troulbe at the moment. Let's say, the Feds cut rates. This would only confirm that there is a serious problem, and will get people thinking, perhaps the risks are indeed a lot greater than what they have been valued to be. Of course, if things turn out to be bullish again, we'll just run into the same problem a little later down the track as debt continue to increase. Then what? Cut rates again? Until the interest rate is zero?

Alternatively, they don't cut rates, people will think that the Feds don't know what they are doing, and since they are unwilling to bail out the large investors (e.g. hedge funds), they'll have sooner or later have no other choice but to de-risk their highly leveraged portfolio purely for survival.

So, either way, I think a crash is imminent. The question is not if, it's when.
 

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