Stock Market Crash - End of the Bull!

[explod]

Have a read of this article
http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...f-rollercoaster/2007/09/08/1188783556754.html
Particularly interested in these comments-
"We will see the predictable knee-jerk response...." &
"A survey of brokers' stock forecasts for the next 12 months predict the S & P/Asx 200 will gain 17.7%."

Both Craige James and Shane Oliver toe a very right wing line in all that they say. And thier statements are rarely backed by any evidence. On the one hand they say that the risk of a recession has gone up and in the same para that they will avoid a recession. MAKE UP YOUR MIND

Yes the market will go down to some degree tomorrow, but as has been the growing case of late much of that will restore by mid afternoon.

And it is the business of Stockbroker's to talk up the market, they want you in for their commissions. Like asking a real estate agent which way the housing market is going

 

[CanOz]

Has anyone seen Henry Paulson trying to put a positive spin on the jobs data?

Check this out, i really felt sorry for him, he's really sounding desperate here....and this coming from the once, top gun at Sachs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html?Intro=intro3

Second vid on the left.


Cheers,

 

[dhukka]

Has anyone seen Henry Paulson trying to put a positive spin on the jobs data?

Check this out, i really felt sorry for him, he's really sounding desperate here....and this coming from the once, top gun at Sachs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html?Intro=intro3

Second vid on the left.


Cheers,

Yes saw that and was almost going to start a thread about it. What an absolute jibbering idiot, notice how the moron completely avoids answering any of the tough questions and resorts to the same platitudes and generalizations he's been parroting for the last 6 months. How someone this utterly incompetent can keep his job is amazing - then again look who is leading the country.

I had the complete opposite reaction to you. I was hoping the reporter would take to his stupid bald head with the microphone then strangle him with the cord until he confessed that he is a bald faced, stupid lying c*&t. But that's just me.

 

[wayneL]

I was hoping the reporter would take to his stupid bald head with the microphone then strangle him with the cord until he confessed that he is a bald faced, stupid lying c*&t. But that's just me.

ROFL!

Now that is something I'd love to see.

 

[CanOz]

Yes saw that and was almost going to start a thread about it. What an absolute jibbering idiot, notice how the moron completely avoids answering any of the tough questions and resorts to the same platitudes and generalizations he's been parroting for the last 6 months. How someone this utterly incompetent can keep his job is amazing - then again look who is leading the country.

I had the complete opposite reaction to you. I was hoping the reporter would take to his stupid bald head with the microphone then strangle him with the cord until he confessed that he is a bald faced, stupid lying c*&t. But that's just me.

Sure Dhukka, but its sad, very sad when a man so known for his skill is so obviously uncomfortable lying through his teeth. Why on earth would you take THAT job under THAT moron at THIS time is beyond me. What did they do, promise him all the oil in Iraq or something?

Cheers,

 

[Temjin]

Everyone is aware of a mysterious trader from Israel is predicting a 9/11 style crash by betting BIG via a billion dollar put option on an European index that tracks around 50 stocks?

Lots of conspiracy rumours around this on the internet. Obviously, he could be a terroist or some insiders know something big will happen...

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/august2007/270807_market_crash.htm

Anyway, interesting to know what will happen in the next few days up to the 21st of September.

I wondered how many money that trader will lose if the market doesn't crash as he/she predicted?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

promise him all the oil in Iraq or something?

Don't worry about oil any more Can, we will be mining Hidrogen3 from the moon in 20-30 years all our energy problems are solved!

Temjin,

That's a interesting fact I think there are alot of people right now thinking we will have a massive plunge, from the end of September to October anniversary of black Wednesday.

Its very weired that two of the big market meltdowns were years ending with a 7. eg 87 97.

Interesting couple 4-6 weeks coming up!

 

[numbercruncher]

Has anyone seen Henry Paulson trying to put a positive spin on the jobs data?

Check this out, i really felt sorry for him, he's really sounding desperate here....and this coming from the once, top gun at Sachs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html?Intro=intro3

Second vid on the left.


Cheers,

omg, obviously someone not comfortable in Lying, Interviewer should of asked him where he has his money invested at the moment

 

[sassa]

Most Banks have not declared their potential sub-prime losses and until this is done the credit-crunch is set to stick around.

And this presents another problem.In an article in The Australian business section today,David Wighton and Jeremy Grant,state that leading commercial and investment banks have held private talks about how to account for losses in their leveraged lending and securities businesses.
"The discussions reflect concern that the various banks could make very different judgments about the impact of the market turmoil.Banks have a high degree of DISCRETION about how to value the losses....."
So what picture will we really get when banks start reporting their quarterly forecasts if they use different approaches to valuing.
It doesn't say much for the honesty of banks when an executive says that some of its American and European rivals will be "playing games."
The most concerning statement was by Cubillas Ding(an analyst at a financial consultancy),"Banks have a high degree of discretion on valuations and the process was subject to conflicts of interest and manipulation."
Now if banks were to use market prices to value their securities instead of 'models' we would get an honest assessment.I hope.

 

[numbercruncher]

The credit crisis could just be beginning

By Jon D Markman

Satyajit Das is laughing. It appears I have said something very funny, but I have no idea what it was. My only clue is that the laugh sounds somewhat pitying. One of the world’s leading experts on credit derivatives (financial instruments that transfer credit risk from one party to another), Das is the author of a 4,200-page reference work on the subject, among a half-dozen other tomes. As a developer and marketer of the exotic instruments himself over the past 30 years, he seemed like the ideal industry insider to help us get to the bottom of the recent debt crunch ”” and I expected him to defend and explain the practice. I started by asking the Calcutta-born Australian whether the credit crisis was in what Americans would call the “third inning.” This was pretty amusing, it seemed, judging from the laughter. So I tried again. “Second inning?” More laughter. “First?” Still too optimistic. Das, who knows as much about global money flows as anyone in the world, stopped chuckling long enough to suggest that we’re actually still in the middle of the national anthem before a game destined to go into extra innings. And it won’t end well for the global economy.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C09%5C22%5Cstory_22-9-2007_pg5_21

Pretty good read I think this was the same guy interviewed on TV the other night on a doc on the subprimes.

 

[Buffettology]

I am still VERY hesitant to put some of my cash into the market. I just transferred about another 5% of my portfolio to cash for the moment.

Think I will sit out the next few weeks and see where it takes us.

This "sub-prime mortage market" thing is meant to be FAR BIGGER than it appears from the sources I have been reading. With some even talking about a depression, let alone a recession!

While I disagree, I think a bit of fear creeping in could provide some great buy opportunities as it did a few weeks back (though I wasnt bold enough to capitalise on these low prices).

Very interesting times! Though I have made 15% in the last few months, while the market has moved sideways (with high volatility of course). So not doing too bad out of it.

 

[krisbarry]

My financial planner has just pulled me in to reorganise my portfolio.He forecasts 5400 by Xmas and could even be as low as 5100.I have enjoyed a period of excellent growth-I entered 4 years ago when the market was 3800.

I hope you sacked your financial planner and have a new one

 

[GreatPig]

Better yet, do your own financial planning.

Then you've got no one else to blame...

GP

 

[sassa]

I hope you sacked your financial planner and have a new one

By Xmas was the prediction.He is like all stock market players and investors-he hopes his hunch is correct.There are plenty in the same boat just as there are plenty in the 7000 one.They all have reasons for their prediction and the nagging question to all investing is-Which way will the market go?My money is my own.I would not like to be a margin player or one who has not taken some defensive position in these uncertain times.

 

[krisbarry]

By Xmas was the prediction.He is like all stock market players and investors-he hopes his hunch is correct.There are plenty in the same boat just as there are plenty in the 7000 one.They all have reasons for their prediction and the nagging question to all investing is-Which way will the market go?My money is my own.I would not like to be a margin player or one who has not taken some defensive position in these uncertain times.

Well I guess its closer to 7000, than 5400. I also don't see too much in the line of doom and gloom. So lets raise our glasses and toast to 7000 by Xmas

 

[dhukka]

Well I guess its closer to 7000, than 5400. I also don't see too much in the line of doom and gloom. So lets raise our glasses and toast to 7000 by Xmas

Take heed, the great contrarian indicator STC has spoken.

 

[nioka]

It is never the end of the bull run. He just goes to sleep at times. All anyone has to do is invest for the future and choose stocks which have a future and sound financials. Sit back and ignore the fluctuations in the market. You only ever lose money if you sell for less than you pay.

 

[nikkothescorpio]

At any other time in history one would definitely say that there's a number of signs there that would urge caution....however its simple a once in a lifetime event that China and India are 'awakening' and as such no real end to the run will come for some time.

Sure there might be a few pullbacks along the way but 1/2 the worlds population isn't just all of a sudden going to be happy to go without everything they've set their eyes upon.

 

[nioka]

Firstly, as the name says, I am a firm believer in Buffetts investment methadology. For this, I currently need to see the end of this bull.

Companies are currently overvalued, and the market has been a bull market for the past few years. Very similar to the 87 crash situation, the market was a bull market from 82-87 from the top of my head, a very similar length of time to the current climate. However, baby boomers pouring invesment dollars into the market, trying to gain as large returns as they can before their retirements, is definately a factor of which will maintain a sturdy bull market for the near future.

I have currently pulled all my funds out of the stock market, waiting for this bull to end, though I think we might see more of a flattening out of the market over the next year or two, as opposed to a drastic crash. I would LOVE to see a crash, as these current bond returns I am receiving are pathetic when looking at the compounding rate of return over the next couple of years.

What are your opinions on the current overheated market, and when do you think this could end? Do you see a crash, or a flattening out?

Reviewing your first post establishing this thread and noting you had at that stage pulled your funds out of the market, I would be interested to know if and when you returned to the market and whether you ended up in front of the position you would have been in if you had not been so convinced then that the end of the bull run was nigh.

 

[Buffettology]

Reviewing your first post establishing this thread and noting you had at that stage pulled your funds out of the market, I would be interested to know if and when you returned to the market and whether you ended up in front of the position you would have been in if you had not been so convinced then that the end of the bull run was nigh.

ha ha, blast from a past this is! Nearly a year ago now!

I ended up getting most of my funds back in the market, though, never at the highs. I bought in and out multiple times. I actually didnt even hold one stock the entire time since I got back in.

I think I got in around May (so a month after this post) and probably bought and sold at least 40 times over the year. I made 50% before this latest crash (JST and EQN big contributors to that profit).

Though, I was mostly all in at the time of this most recent crash, and lost about 25%. I bought a couple stocks cheap during the crash, TOL, EQN and BKL, and have since sold all 3 for higher prices, cutting that loss to about 15%. I only hold two stocks now, JST and DEX and have about 65% of my portfolio in cash.

So once again, I am waiting for this bounce to end and us see another turn in sentiment! IR rise maybe announced in a couple days, surely more worse figures released in the US (inflation the big ? for me as I am sure GDP growth will continue to slow).

Am I better or worse off? No idea. If I held until we reached close to that 5200 just the other day, then I could have made a decent profit buying some of those cheap stocks. But still, a 35% profit in a year (well actually higher, closer to 40% once I factor in bank interest for the time my money has been in cash), is probably better than if I stayed out of the market and bought in at the recent crash.