SSN - Samson Oil & Gas

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

I'm no chartist but I can whack a few trend lines on a chart and see what comes of it.

How does this look on the weekly?



MACD about to cross up ( from another chart), huge switch in market depth late last week........and just looking at what happened when we broke downtrend last time and considering what is about to unfold in the next quarter or so it'll be interesting to see where we end up when we break the downtrend this time....

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Just also wanted to add that when talking about flow rates in the previous post that this was the total flow rates for the wells, the share for SSN of the Bakken Wells is as follows:

Gene - 30.60%
Gary - 37.00%
Rodney - 27.00%
Earl - 32.00%
Harstad #2 - 34.50% (I believe this is equal to Harstad #1 which is 34.50%)

So you would need to adjust any calculations based on these %'s for example for Gene flow rate of 220bbls of oil x 30.60% = SSN Share NOT the 220bbls of oil.

Just wanted to clear that up for those investors not familiar with the company.

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Just looking through the capital budget as per strategy statement, and advise is looking at spending $11.2m to produce:

Bakken Wells (G,R,E & H2)
3D Sesmic
Diamondback
2 x Wells in Niobrara

If the cost of a well in Niobrara is approx $3m and the Sept 10 quarter spent $4m, being mainly for R & E drilling costs and this quarter spending $4m, for 3D (approx $2m), diamondback and assume frac Rodney - this would leave $3m or so left.

In March 11 they need to drill Harstad 2 and complete Earl which would use up the majority of the $11m - i.e. cost to drill Brakken Well have seen mentioned at $6m so at 34.50% share around the $2m mark.

What is the plan for the 2 Niobrara Wells - Are they looking at bringing someone onboard to meet all the costs? What % would they retain? I assume this would have a positive effect on their ST share price? Any thoughts?

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Just looking through the capital budget as per strategy statement, and advise is looking at spending $11.2m to produce:

Bakken Wells (G,R,E & H2)
3D Sesmic
Diamondback
2 x Wells in Niobrara

If the cost of a well in Niobrara is approx $3m and the Sept 10 quarter spent $4m, being mainly for R & E drilling costs and this quarter spending $4m, for 3D (approx $2m), diamondback and assume frac Rodney - this would leave $3m or so left.

In March 11 they need to drill Harstad 2 and complete Earl which would use up the majority of the $11m - i.e. cost to drill Brakken Well have seen mentioned at $6m so at 34.50% share around the $2m mark.

What is the plan for the 2 Niobrara Wells - Are they looking at bringing someone onboard to meet all the costs? What % would they retain? I assume this would have a positive effect on their ST share price? Any thoughts?

Well spotted Youtry.

From the business plan....

The Board of Directors has approved an initial capital budget of US$11.2 million for fiscal year 2010/2011, which ends on June 30, 2011, for drilling and for seismic data acquisition. This budget assumes that the North Stockyard development is completed as outlined above, the North Platte 3-D seismic is acquired, and the initial two wells in Hawks Springs are fully carried, along with the drilling of Diamondback.



And that begs the question...by whom???

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Just wanted to make a correction to my earlier post the other day - it appears the working interest in Harstad #2 to SSN has yet to be confirmed so my post of 34.50% share for SSN may be incorrect (I was basing it on Harstad #1 which may not be the right thing to do) so please take this into account if you are doing any calculations. I apologise for the error and I do not know what it maybe so I will leave it out of my calculations until confirmed by the company. It does not effect my Dec 10 income estimate as it is planned to be drilled in the March 11 quarter and was not part of the Dec 10 calculations. Thanks.

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Been waiting for news this week regarding Frac of Rodney at the very least - I think this has been delayed, as previous announcements state due 5/11/10 - not sure if meant the week 5/11/10. Gary comes off of confidential list on 24/11/10 so up date on flow rates also coming up, spud of Diamonback due in Nov and any other news on things they maybe working on i.e. JV.

Must say I am a little disappointed that we have yet to receive anything from the company and they have been quiet of late.

I guess each day without news means a day closer to getting an announcement and buying was solid today, mainly around the 6.3c to 6.4c range so maybe some investors looking to get in on some potential news. Hoping for a mulity type announcement to keep this trend going.

Would be disappointed if we did not receive something this week or by open on Monday and would be interesting to see what impact this would have on the ST share price. Wait and see for me at the moment - plenty happening in the next few months, to keep interest high - the story could unfold either way fairly quickly.

 

[yarrabah]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

My goldie friend from HC. Bit of a sell off today. Sorry to see you have moved on from the old place, will miss the input re SSN, but i am sure it was eating up your time.

Yeah news delay is a grind but it is only days away. Interesting to see SEA continue on its way. I think it bodes well for SSN if there is oil in them fields. Chevron moving in the US shale plays helps the longer term. As a side I wonder where CHK million acres in an as yet unamed play is? Lots of moves afoot in the shales with more to come IMO.

Hi Slipperz. followed your posts for awhile without replying. all the best to both of you.

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Yarrabah,

Like the quiet, do not want to upset anyone in or out of the forums, if you know what I mean. Those goldies, why can't anything ever go up in a straight line - gotta have the good & bad days - expecting more good in the future.

Done a valulation on SSN (not that it means anything but it does help me keep focused on why I am invested in SSN), had some spare time the last couple of days so decided to do some work and build a new spreadsheet - still think undervalued (and maybe a bit unloved, although some love did return today) at the moment. Always happy to share, just waiting on the next announcement before finalising.

I still think management needs to be more proactive in sharing information and putting in an easy to understand format (refer SEA). I have been a little disappointed in the wording of their announcements of late and the market maybe lacking a little confidence in them being able to deliver the returns that they should with net $60m+ in the bank. One of my favourite quotes is:

"Whatever made you successful in the past won't in the future" Lew Platt, former CEO of HP

That is what makes SSN an interesting opportunity, so close, yet the market thinks so far, but within 3 to 4 months we will have our answer of a multibagger or another management team that failed to deliver on a "game changer" opportunity - TB own words not mine so I expect him to deliver. I never fall in love with a share, but I believe in giving them time to deliver on the various opportunities they have in front of them, but like sport you only ever get a few chances to prove yourself. Look at the goldie management team, they just keep getting it right, with the current goldie company and previous companies.

Hope to talk again, all the best with your investments.

PS Love the edit function on this forum.

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

My goldie friend from HC. Bit of a sell off today. Sorry to see you have moved on from the old place, will miss the input re SSN, but i am sure it was eating up your time.

Yeah news delay is a grind but it is only days away. Interesting to see SEA continue on its way. I think it bodes well for SSN if there is oil in them fields. Chevron moving in the US shale plays helps the longer term. As a side I wonder where CHK million acres in an as yet unamed play is? Lots of moves afoot in the shales with more to come IMO.

Hi Slipperz. followed your posts for awhile without replying. all the best to both of you.

Glad to see the SSN thread livening up a bit!

Steady as she goes this week for the SP.

Some news tomorrow would cap off a good week!

Price of oil looking bullish, Colin Twiggs of incredible charts has pegged a target of $107 today!

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Yes well so much for that prediction!

:bigun2:

All the oilers in the US got smashed overnight badly in amongst the general market malaise.

Looking at the daily we are travelling allright although there was a bit if a rush of sellers at weeks end and the depth has swung back out to a 2:1 ratio.



We are still tracking along okay sitting on that resistance/ support line at 0.065 and the overall market sentiment this week was pretty bearish.

A bit disappointed newswise. Not a peep from management in nearly three weeks about anything

It's about time we got updated on current activities imho!

 

[yarrabah]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Apparently I cannot send messages until I reach 5 postings.

News is due and should come just prior to GM. Sell/Buy wavered as the week went on. Seems news was anticapted by traders in OMO. Lack of action could be a negative sign but I think TB has his head down plotting '11 campaign. JV and seismic need attention in the fine detail and this is where I hope the focus is and where the gains will come. SP will drift lower without it but I think that is to be expected. Also changes in US capital gains next year will see some selling in Dec which will put further pressure on in the coming month (possible rebuying if the future is deemed to be bright).
Bit of a poker game at the moment which echoes this time last year when the banks circled.

 

[Trader Paul]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

SSN astroanalysis ... updated 12112010:



Hi folks,

SSN ... here’s a look at the astroanalysis for SSN, over the next couple of months.

17-18112010 ... expecting a positive spotlight on SSN

26-29112010 ... minor news expected here

17-24122010 ... 4 time cycles over this period, may bring significant and
positive news, triggered by a lunar aspect, around 22-23122010.

03012011 ... a positive aspect, that may bring some financial news, but
then, SSN starts to go through its next negative cycle phase.

14-17012011 ... expecting a significant and negative spotlight on SSN.

3101- 01022011 ... 2 time cycles may bring significant and negative news here.

15-21022011 ... 4 minor cycles, during this time

25-28022011 ... significant and negative time cycle ... finance-related ... (???)

07-08032011 ... significant and positive news expected here

15-16032011 ... expect a positive spotlight to focus on SSN

23-24032011 ... minor cycle

25-28032011 ... positive cycle may bring a short and sharp upmove.

More later .....

have a great weekend

paul

P.S. ..... VPE also responds to the same time cycles, as SSN



=====

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Posted by Trader Paul (thanks by the way - every bit of information helps) -

"SSN ... here’s a look at the astroanalysis for SSN, over the next couple of months. 17-18112010 ... expecting a positive spotlight on SSN"

If we go by the stars looks like Wednesday/Thursday for some news - was hoping for something last week or today - we will see if the stars are aligned. Alternatively the spotlight could be on the AGM and the postivie aspect on the directors getting their 8c options and pay rises passed. Wish those stars were clearer.

Personally do not see any real reason to sell at the moment, unless you call frustration a reason, as just at the starting line - but no news in the next couple of days or from AGM and I agree the share price will most likely move downwards. Some my see as an opportunity and some may just lose faith and move on, who knows.

Then again I have seen what positive news has done to my favourite goldie share over the last couple of days, as well as the SSN share price in recent times, so sometimes in the market anticipation achieves a greater result than outcomes, is the saying buy on rumour sell on fact. Although I have a feeling based on my own valuation and others including the company's 9.6c target after sale of the Niobrara land, that not even the rumours have been built into the share price yet.

Basically the share price has been stuck at a valuation around cash backing and remaining Niobrara land value. I think the market has forgetton that SSN is producing o&g, has other land holdings, first 90 days of the Gary Bakken Well production to be included in the Dec 10 quarter (their highest percentage well in the Bakken at 37% performing initally better than the Gene well, which was a pretty good well), currently 2 x avg. 30% bakken wells already drilled with strong O&G shows ready to frac and hopefully add to production in the next couple of months and a oil price hovering around $US85. That alone would normally send the share price moving upwards - it has to be worth something.

Let alone the Niobrara play or the drilling of Diamondback (100% SSN) well in Texas Onshore Gulf Coast Basin which is being drilled in the same area as the Sabretooth Project (which SSN has 12.50% of and produced at 54BOPD and 4,300Mcfgd in the last quarter and pretty much this amount for the last 3 quarters).

The rationale of the share market it never ceases to amaze me.

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

New conference happening in February 2011 on drilling the Niobrara.

http://www.infocastinc.com/index.php/conference/422/agenda

Interestingly Schlumberger are sending their vice president of shale gas while Haliburton are sending their local yokel.

Good to some some of the midstream companies in there as well.

And not to overlook the MD of Tudor Pickering and Halt in attendance also

I wonder how many wells will be off confidential status by then.....

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

And so the wait for some news goes on - now nearly a month since the last operations update being Earl (excluding compulsory accounts, quarterly's, etc.). AGM might bring some news tomorrow. Share price holding up at present.

I guess cash can change your management style from regular market updates (one of the strengths I thought this company had) to I will let you know, funny when no CR is in the pipeline. Maybe SSN has forgotten that it was the shareholders (with a little help from Macquarie) that stopped the company from going down the drain. Do we not deserve to be kept in the loop or are we no longer needed at the moment and we will get back to you in due course?

So much happening (apparently) but silence from SSN management -

Then again maybe they just might suprise us (hopefully in a positive way) with something from left field in the next few days.

Anyway my complaining is over, can't do much but wait so back to work.

 

[yarrabah]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Could have been worse today, SSN that is. A few my others weren't spared the flogging, but lived to go again. Off to GM tomorrow. See how that goes. Lots of questions

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Yarrabah,

If possible could you post a summary of the key points as I am not in WA to attend - does anyone know if it is online?

Do not get me wrong yesterday I got sold out of all my goldies (maybe a blessing in disguise) as my stop loss (profit in this case) got hit - still determining when maybe a good opportunity to buy back in, looking for stability in the gold price first.

However I have held all my SSN (no stop loss at present). I still have the faith in management and the company (it is that $70m+) but it is frustrating when you can see it so close yet it seems so far, especially with the oil price decreasing and uncertainity returning to the market (makes that $70m even more comforting during these times).

I do not believe they have been sitting around doing nothing but some update whether good or bad (considering they had a few things planned in early November) would at least make us shareholders aware of what is happening. I am just working on the theory that each day without news means we are closer to a day with news and maybe they are working on something that we are not aware of, I guess we will find out in due course. I trust TB and his management team to deliver or else I would not hold, but I like to also call it as I see it and at the moment it is frustrating sitting and waiting but 1 positive announcement can quickly change the mood.

Enjoy the AGM.

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Maybe some positive news - On the US Yahoo SSN forum it appears that CHK has applied for another well to drill on former SSN land - ORRI 3.8% land (as stated on the forum "appears to be only 2 miles directly north of the Intrepid well" which was spud 2 months ago and is on the confidential list at present).

The arguement on the forum is that this could be seen as a positive as it is doubtful that they would be drilling so close to the current well if they had poor results from that well. They have a lot of acreage (not just former SSN land) so I guess they would want to drill in the areas they would be getting the best results. This post is from one of a few excellent posters on that forum.

As stated this is from the forum so I cannot guarantee 100% accuracy of the information - they have set out exactly where the well is located and you can get all the well information from the forum, so as always it is recommended to do your own research.

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

OK Annual General Meeting presentation out - no new news just same as previous presentations - even less information than those presentations. Focus on shale play - no real mention of other assets i.e Texas, Diamonback. Sill mentions Rodney Frac for Nov and Earl for Jan.

So why the quiet all of a sudden? Something is going on here. Could the talk of takeover be true or is it just delay's? Are they just comfortable to see out the year with the money in the bank?

Would be interested to hear from anyone who may have attended what the general feeling at the meeting was or if you have any other additional information.

Strange days indeed for this share as I have noted before from the sharing information company (even bad news when they had no money re: ripsaw duster was released promptly) to nothing - anyone have any ideas?

 

[haddadf]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

You can get this information from the following web site. http://wogcc.state.wy.us/

Here are the new CHK well details.

Api Number - 49-015-20198

Permit to Drill Filed By - CHESAPEAKE OPERATING INC

Unit/Lease - AHLBRANDT

Lease Number -

Well Name/Number - 23-63 4-1H

Surface Location - SW SE Sec 4 T23N R63W

Surface Footages - 563 FSL 1980 FEL

Bottom Location - NW NE Sec 4 T23N R63W

Bottom Footages - 660 FNL 1980 FEL

Reservoir - NIOBRARA

Field Name - PURPLE SAGE

Mineral Ownership - Fee/Fee

Total Depth - 7199

Here are the Intrepid well details. Both wells have been moved into confidential status.

Api Number - 49-015-20191

Permit to Drill Filed By - SAMSON OIL & GAS USA INC

Unit/Lease - INTREPID US 22 STATE

Lease Number - ST 05-00452

Well Name/Number - 1-16H

Surface Location - SE SE Sec 16 T23N R63W

Surface Footages - 300 FSL 300 FEL

Bottom Location - NW NW Sec 16 T23N R63W

Bottom Footages - 660 FNL 660 FWL

Reservoir - NIOBRARA

Field Name - WC

Mineral Ownership - State

Total Depth - 12862

Approved - 07/21/2010